000
FXUS63 KFGF 280819
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
319 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern ahead with multiple chances for precipitation
  in the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The only location clear this morning is the northern Devils Lake
Basin, which we are watching closely for the possibility of fog.
Guidance suggests if fog does develop, it will likely be patchy
instead of dense. Other locations are socked in with stratus ahead
of our next system incoming today into tomorrow.

Synoptically, The ejecting low will be making its way towards us
this morning, and rain chances will increase with it from south to
north. Southwest flow will stick around after that into mid-week,
allowing a active pattern with multiple shortwaves moving through to
set up more rain chances into next week.

The today into tomorrow system has decent probabilities for seeing
some much needed moisture in our area. Probabilities for seeing
greater than or equal to 0.5" in 48 hours (through Monday evening)
are 20 - 30% along and North of HWY-2, 30 - 50% between HWY-2 and I-
94, and 50 - 80% south of I-94. Once we bump those probs up to 1" or
more, chances drop to 30 - 40%, and only south of I-94. Locations
between I-94 and HWY-2 have about a 10 - 20% chance of exceeding 1".
Additionally, some guidance is showing the possibility for some
snow/mixed precipitation in northwestern Minnesota as temperatures
cool Sunday night. As of now, accumulations look to be a dusting or
less in these areas, but don`t be surprised if you spot some flakes
in the precipitation late Sunday/early Monday.

After this system, the next chance for rain comes on Tuesday when a
shortwave comes through the area. From looking at guidance, multiple
shortwaves are going to run together it seems heading into the
weekend. Temperatures are going to run cooler than average as well,
with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

After a rainy weekend, temperatures will rebound back into the 50s
and 60s for highs by mid-week, with lows in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

MVFR conditions are scattered across the TAF sites. KDVL is
right on the edge of a broken cloud layer and a clearing and is
the only VFR site right now. However, KDVL could produce some
early morning fog due to this clearing. Borderline MVFR/VFR will
continue through the night with cloud decks between 1500ft and
3000ft. The timing of the next system looks to be in the
afternoon/evening so ceilings may start to fall into MVFR/IFR
ahead of the system.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...MM