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000
FXUS64 KFWD 172000
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
300 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 132 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/
/Through Tomorrow Night/

Weather Highlights:
-Isolated storms this afternoon
-Severe storms Tomorrow Afternoon

Rest of This Afternoon & Tonight:

A warm and muggy day will continue through the rest of today
thanks to the persistent southerly flow across the region.
Yesterday`s front has retreated westward, and has stalled just
west of our region. This boundary will act much like a dryline
this afternoon with significantly drier air west of the dryline
and moist conditions to the east.

Although no major forcing for ascent will be atop our region,
diurnally driven convection may develop this afternoon across the
Big Country. If they do develop, storm motion would take it to the
east/northeast into our western-most counties. For that reason,
we`ll continue to advertise a minimal potential for a thunderstorm
or two. Any strong convection will likely occur just west of our
region with a weakening trend expected as storms shift east, away
from the boundary. Storm chances will quickly dissipate after
sunset as atmospheric stability sets in.

Tonight will be fairly quiet across the region with partly cloudy
skies in place. Given the moist environment, temperatures will
likely stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the night.

Tomorrow - Tomorrow Night:

A more active weather day is expected on Thursday as the pseudo-
dryline and a cold front converge atop our region. Throughout the
morning hours, the cold front will be progressing southward into
our region, remaining precipitation free. During the afternoon,
sufficient daytime heating is expected for convection to develop.
Given the warm surface temperatures, instability will build to
3000+ J/kg, increasing the threat for severe thunderstorm
development. Severe storms would mainly contain a large hail and
damaging wind threat as they progress east/southeast along the
cold front. With instability waning after sunset, thunderstorms
will gradually lose strength later in the afternoon/early evening.

Northerly winds will ensue behind the front, remaining below 15
mph through the rest of the night. This will help cool overnight
temperatures into the lower to mid 50s along and north of I-20.
60s are most likely south of I-20.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Through Mid Next Week/

By daybreak Friday, the aforementioned cold front is expected to
be slowly drifting or stalled near or just north of the Hill
Country as it becomes oriented parallel to the upper-level flow.
Moisture advection overtop of the shallow frontal surface should
quickly yield widespread dense cloud cover early Friday. By the
afternoon, an approaching weak shortwave trough embedded within
the zonal flow aloft...in combination with the established
isentropic ascent regime...will lead to isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of the 850mb
front, which is expected to still be draped across North Texas
(near the Red River). Rain/thunderstorm chances will increase
Friday night in response to increasing large scale lift associated
with another weak shortwave shifting across Central/South Texas.

While buoyancy will be somewhat limited, there should be
sufficient elevated instability for convective elements/embedded
thunderstorms capable of producing small hail late Friday into
early Saturday. With PWAT values near or exceeding the 90th
percentile of the daily climatological mean, locally heavy
rainfall may lead to flooding impacts on Saturday, especially
wherever higher convective rain rates materialize. The prevailing
drought and drier antecedent conditions in the southwest portions
of our forecast area will likely limit most flood concerns in this
area. However, ponding or minor nuisance flooding cannot be
completely ruled out. Conversely, given the degree of soil
saturation in areas east of the I-35 corridor and current
reservoir conditions, rapid surface runoff and minor river
flooding issues are likely to emerge this weekend. In general, 1.5
to 2.5 inches of rainfall is expected with isolated higher totals
possible. There is a 30-40% chance that total accumulated
rainfall exceeds 3 inches in a few different areas across North
and Central Texas.

Increasing subsidence in the wake of the departing shortwave
should bring an end to rain chances by Sunday afternoon with drier
conditions prevailing through early next week. In contrast to the
unseasonably hot temperatures in the short term period,
temperatures will fall from near/slightly below normal to as much
as 15-20 degrees cooler than 1991-2020 averages by Sunday. This is
due to weak cold air advection behind the cold front in
combination with rain chances and extensive cloud cover. The
surface high will shift east over the Lower Mississippi Valley
Monday, allowing for onshore flow to return. The return of
southerly winds and ample sunshine early next week will lead to a
quick warm up with highs back into the 70s and lower 80s by
Tuesday.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 132 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR returns tonight, improvements late tomorrow
morning. VCTS has been added to account for increasing TS
potential tomorrow afternoon.

VFR is ongoing and will continue through the rest of the
afternoon into this evening. With southerly flow continuing, a
return of low ceilings is expected once again. Initially, the low
ceilings will approach KACT around 05Z, then the Dallas/Fort Worth
Metroplex closer to 09Z. Guidance keeps the ceilings within the
MVFR category through the late morning hours before VFR returns
closer to noon.

A cold front will be approaching the region in the afternoon,
with storms firing off along its leading edge. Storm timing
appears most likely 21Z and beyond, therefore, it has only been
included to the extended portion of the DFW TAF. Storms should be
fairly quick to exit the region with only a few hours of
thunderstorm potential. Additional refinements to storm timing can
be expected in subsequent TAF cycles.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  88  59  73  60 /  10  50  40  10  60
Waco                71  87  63  76  65 /  10  30  40  10  30
Paris               67  84  58  69  55 /  10  20  30  20  60
Denton              68  87  55  70  56 /   5  50  20  10  70
McKinney            69  86  58  71  58 /   5  50  40  20  70
Dallas              71  89  61  73  62 /  10  50  50  10  60
Terrell             68  85  60  74  61 /  10  30  50  10  50
Corsicana           71  87  63  79  65 /  10  20  30  10  40
Temple              70  87  63  79  64 /  10  30  40  10  30
Mineral Wells       68  89  57  71  58 /   5  40  10  10  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$