000
FXUS63 KMPX 180525 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1225 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)

COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST MESOSCALE OBSERVATION SHOWING MUCAPE 500-1000
J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES TO 35 KTS FROM EAST CENTRAL MN
INTO WESTERN WI. ALREADY GETTING SOME SMALL SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING
OVER THIS REGION...ALONG WITH SOME REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE
VALUES INCREASE OVER 800 J/KG...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I94. IF
CELLS DO DROP INTO THIS REGION AND ARE ABLE TO DRAW IN SOME OF
THIS MORE UNSTABLE AIR...WE COULD GET SOME STRONG WINDS AS WELL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT WATCH ISSUANCE
PER LATEST MCD FROM SPC.

ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING AND OVERALL TREND WILL
LIKELY WANE. THEN THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...MOVES INTO WESTERN MN LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD
SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL
TRAIL POPS OFF OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATER TONIGHT AND WILL
LINGER LONGEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DONT
ANTICIPATE ANYTHING SEVERE FOR TUESDAY.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH NEGATIVE CU RULES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE OVERALL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS STILL LOOKING RATHER SUMMER-LIKE AND
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS THE MPX AREA FINDS ITSELF ON THE EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDE THAT WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND OVER TO THE ROCKIES NEXT WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO BRING WITH
IT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MCS/S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED...
LASTING ALL OF TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALL GUIDANCE
SHOW A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. MAIN LLJ WILL BE ORIENTED AT THIS TIME FROM
NEB UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NE MONTANA. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A WEAKER FINGER OF THE LLJ EXTENDING NE FROM SW MN UP TOWARD
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. COMBINE THIS LLJ WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND MUCAPES
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG AND YOU HAVE MORE THAN
ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LLJ FROM THE DAKOTAS BEGINS TO LAY OVER INTO
MN...AND WITH IT THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ARRIVES. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THE GFS BRINGS PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES UP INTO MN/WI
/BETTER THAN 150% OF NORMAL/ AND KEEPS THE PWATS UP THERE FROM
THURSDAY RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. TO GO ALONG
WITH THIS...BY FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 70S THAT STAY THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN IS A CLASSIC SUMMERTIME MCS
SETUP...WITH MULTIPLE COMPLEXES LIKELY TO MOVE AROUND THE NRN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS FAR OUT...VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY...AS STORMS ONE
NIGHT WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN WHERE STORMS THE NEXT DAY SHOW
UP AND SO ON. AS A RESULT...THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS FULL OF ENDLESS
CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE DRY
PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED...BUT STILL LOOK TO SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF
STORMS. WITH THE 17.12 MODEL RUNS...THE GFS HAS TOTAL QPF BY TUESDAY
OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF MN...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
SIMILAR AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. WITH ALL OF
THIS...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON BOTH THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLOODING SIDE OF THINGS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...AT THE VERY LEAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED...AS LOWS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 70S. FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS
AROUND EACH DAY. BUT...BY FRIDAY...THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW 925 MB TEMPS
INCREASING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S C. SO AS LONG AS THERE IS NOT TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND...THEN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITIES TO TOP THE 90 DEGREE MARK...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN IN WESTERN
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD

KMSP...

VFR EXPECTED WITH JUST A 2 TO 3 HR WINDOW WITH SHOWER CHANCES
EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF ND. THIS SHOULDN`T REDUCE THE VIS/CIGS AND THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE THE SHOWERS MISS THE AIRPORT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NIGHT...VFR WITH CHC OF MVFR AND SHRA/TS. SE WINDS 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC OF MVFR SHRA/TS. SSE WINDS 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC OF MVFR SHRA/TS. S WINDS 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...CLF