559
FXUS63 KMPX 120726
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
226 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous air quality this weekend from Canadian wildfire
  smoke.

- Isolated thunderstorms possible Sunday evening. More
  widespread rain likely Tuesday-Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Very poor air quality has developed overnight as smoke from
Canadian wildfires continues to accompany cooler & drier air
behind a cold front. AQI values are at unhealthy to very
unhealthy levels across the state, & may decrease further
through sunrise as the smoke settles closer to the surface. HRRR
smoke forecasts model another wave of dense smoke
concentrations this afternoon, so today is a great day to take
air pollution precautions by limiting strenuous outdoor
activities & remaining indoors if possible. The smoke will clear
out of the area Sunday morning, however we`ll have to monitor
the potential for another round of smoke Sunday night,
especially across northern & central Minnesota.

Other than the smoke, our weather will be quiet this weekend
under weak high pressure & drier air behind the cold front. A
weak boundary moves through the area Sunday afternoon, which
could initiate a few showers & thunderstorms late Sunday
afternoon & evening. The next chance for widespread rain looks to
come Tuesday into Wednesday with most deterministic & ensemble
guidance developing a potent shortwave along the US-Canada
border. Ensemble guidance has the heaviest precipitation across
northern & central Minnesota & Wisconsin, and shows at least
medium (40-60%) chances for widespread rainfall amounts of at
least one inch. After this system exits, ensemble guidance shows
a strong signal for below normal temperatures Thursday & Friday
with temperature anomalies around 10 degrees below normal. More
typical summertime weather returns for next weekend, along with
another chance for an organized system and widespread showers &
thunderstorms

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Very little chance of additional precipitation impacting any
given TAF site so have kept all sites dry. Main issue becomes
the development of near-surface smoke overnight through Saturday
evening. Have maintained MVFR-range visibility at all sites from
the early morning hours onward as smoke is expected to settle
across the Upper Midwest through the weekend. Only other concern
is the potential for MVFR-IFR ceilings at EAU where winds drop
off the most while low level moisture becomes caught under the
nightly inversion.

KMSP...Smoke is expected to show up in observations close to
sunrise then remain in place through the day tomorrow. Better
low-level mixing may allow for VFR visibility at times, but
prevailing visibility is likely to be in the MVFR range.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...JPC