Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 050351
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1151 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS ARE BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THE
PRIMARY BAND REMAINS REASONABLY ACTIVE...FROM TAWAS TO MIO TO GLR.
ELSEWHERE...CAN REDUCE OR REMOVE POPS A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.
HAVE ENTIRELY REMOVED THUNDER.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...MUCH
LESS IN EASTERN UPPER. THAT HASN/T STOPPED VSBYS AT CAD/MBL/ACB
FROM ALREADY DROPPING BELOW 3SM. FOG/STRATUS WILL AGAIN BECOME
RATHER EXTENSIVE IN BOTH PENINSULAS TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS VERY MILD
IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION TRENDS.

TONIGHT...STACKED MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WITH A TREND TOWARD BECOMING MORE
OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. STILL EXPECT ONGOING
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER NORTHERN LOWER THIS
EVENING...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY. LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND THIS MAY HELP TO PUSH SOME OF THE LINGERING ACTIVITY
TOWARD EASTERN UPPER. SKIES HAVE CLEARED CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE
LAKE HURON COAST /STABLE MARINE LAYER PUSHING INLAND/ AND THIS
CLEARING MAY PUSH INTO MORE OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
PRECIPITATION THREAT DIMINISHES. EXPECT FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOWING LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE
ONCE AGAIN GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE LABOR DAY MONDAY.

DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...FRIDAY`S UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
ABSORBED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE SPANNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. A CONTINUED MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE
WITH HIGH DEW POINTS (UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES SOUTH)...PWATS
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...AND A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL COMBINE
TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
US-131. WILL CONTINUE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SKINNY MLCAPE PROFILE OF 300-700 J/KG. OVERALL
PRECIP CHANCES WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN HINTS OF SCATTERED WAA
DRIVEN PRECIP RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN ONE-THIRD OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO SLIDE
NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO KICK IN.
THERE STILL REMAINS A SMALL THREAT OF A POP-UP SHOWER/T-STORM...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST LOWER SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
SIGNS POINT TO THE ATMOSPHERE BEING WELL CAPPED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST.

MONDAY MAY PROVE TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR PART OF
THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO IRON OUT THE
DETAILS...BUT WITH RATHER WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND AN
OVERALL WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...NOT ANTICIPATING TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT STILL WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON MOVING
FORWARD.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HEAT AND HUMIDITY (DEW POINTS RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD) EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE RIGHT ON THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S SOUTH OF
THE BRIDGE...WITH LOW-MID 80S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WELCOME TO "FALL" IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN - A TIME OF YEAR WHERE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE TAKES A NOSEDIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS
(AND SOMETIMES EVEN ON DAY 1 - SEE THE PAST FEW DAYS!).  RIGHT ON
SCHEDULE AND ON PAR FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...THE MID AND LATE WEEK
PERIODS LOOK TO BE DOMINATED BY AN OVERALL FASTER FLOW REGIME
ALOFT...COMPLETE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF SEVERAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE BIG PROBLEM...HOWEVER...REMAINS JUST HOW TO
TIME EACH OF THESE...WITH SOME RATHER LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. HAVING SAID THAT...THE OVERALL GIST IS FOR
SOME CLASSIC "ROLLER COASTER" WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH MILDER CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY QUICKLY TRANSITIONING
INTO A MUCH COOLER AND FALL-LIKE REGIME WITH INCREASING SIGNALS FOR
ENHANCED THERMAL TROUGHING TAKING HOLD INTO LATE WEEK. AT THE
MOMENT...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE SOMETIME TOWARD TUESDAY
AND PERHAPS AGAIN TOWARD THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...THOUGH OF COURSE TIMING IS ALWAYS SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...JUST A DOWNRIGHT VERY TYPICAL STRETCH OF
EARLY SEPTEMBER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS/FOG VERY LATE TONIGHT.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DECAY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI.
HOWEVER...OUR WX REMAINS UNSETTLED. LINGERING SHRA LATE THIS
EVENING WILL NOT IMPACT THE TAF SITES. STRATUS/FOG WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT (ALREADY SEEING VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT MBL)...WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN TOWARD MID-
MORNING. SCT SHRA COULD REDEVELOP IN THE PLN/APN AREAS FROM MIDDAY
THRU THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS...WITH LAKE BREEZES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
FUNNELING OF E/SE FLOW THROUGH THE STRAITS MAY RESULT IN SOME 20KT
GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING. TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE
NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR MARINE HEADLINES ALONG WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...GILLEN
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR



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