Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 201044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING THE AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 415 AM...LOCAL RADARS TRENDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWED
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BOTH WEAKENED AND BECOME SCATTERED.
STRONGER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY OVER EASTERN OHIO AND
WESTERN PA WHERE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.

H5 LOW OVER NRN MICHIGAN AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL
SLOWLY TRACK EAST TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NYS PRIMARILY WEST OF I81 THIS
MORNING WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN PTN OF FA AND
NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO FAIRLY HIGH PWATS (1.50-1.75
INCHES), MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING TALL/SKINNY CAPE AND A FAIRLY
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS NOT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT BUT MORE OF A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP. SINCE ITS BEEN DRY
RECENTLY, RAINFALL AROUND 3 INCHES WILL BE NEEDED IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME (3 HOURS) BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING
BEGINS TO OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NY AND NRN TIER OF
PA WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR SE. DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY AND
FORCING WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD AND RESIDE
OVER CENTRAL NY BY THURSDAY. PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE WET WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER CENTRAL NY AND HIGH CHC FOR NE PA. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN VERY JUICY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND MOVES EAST OF FA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BUT MAINLY
DRY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAME PTRN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER CONTS WITH A
TROF OVER NEW ENG AND RDGG TO THE WEST. NEARLY STATIONARY WRM FNT
BNDRY OVER WRN NY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONV...AND KEEP CHANCE
OR SLGT CHANCE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PD. LL SELY FLOW WILL
KEEP COOLER AIR IN THE AREA AND AFTN TEMPS ESP BLO NRML. UPR LOW
SLOWLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENG CST ALLOWING A SLOW RETROGRADE OF
THE UPR RDG. THIS IN TURN SHD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DRYING AND IMPRVG
WX SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HPC GUID SEEMED RSNBL AND WAS FLWD THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING AND MOSTLY VFR WITH EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS ARE PRESENT. EXPECT
FOG FROM LAST NIGHT TO LIFT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS. IFR VISBYS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE... THUS DECIDED TO KEEP
MENTION OUT ATTM. EMBEDDED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ALSO DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT ALSO DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL FROM VFR TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT CLOSE TO 12Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTN-SUN...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA...AND
LGT OVRNGT FOG/ST.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...KAH







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