Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 201942
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
242 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild conditions are expected to continue this weekend. Most
areas will likely remain dry heading into Sunday, although some
very light mixed precipitation could move into the western
Mohawk Valley and northern Susquehanna Region of NY for tonight.
Moisture will increase from the west by Sunday afternoon, with
increasing odds of seeing light rain showers or drizzle. As
temperatures cool Sunday night it could freeze. Rain will become
more likely Monday and Tuesday, as a storm system moves through
the region. A slightly cooler airmass is expected behind the
system for mid week, along with scattered snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quiet weather conditions continue across the region late this
morning under a zonal flow aloft. Only small odds of seeing
precipitation are forecast across the far northeastern areas
through tonight. Forecast soundings appear to be too dry for a
significant precipitation event, with the latest convection-
allowing models indicating little (if any) precipitation. Based
on this, precipitation probabilities have been reduced to
"slight chance" territory across this area.

Otherwise, the forecast largely appears to be on track through
Sunday.

330 AM Update... Dry and mild with mostly high clouds and a
steady southwest wind most places. Temperatures where there is
wind are in the 30s. A weak front goes through this morning with
cold air advection at low levels. This will bring low clouds
and maybe some mixed precipitation to the far north this
afternoon which expands south to Delaware and Cortland Counties.
Precipitation will be very light but could be freezing
especially late tonight. Moisture will be locked into the low
levels under a strong inversion. The problem is that this layer
is below the best dendrite zone so precipitation could be
freezing drizzle or sleet. This will be most likely across the
higher terrain east of interstate 81 and in Oneida County.
Oneida County will have the best chance and the most qpf but
still only a few hundredths. Where these clouds are thickest in
the northeast temperatures only get to near 40 and tonight drop
into the upper 20s.

Rest of the area will have more sun today especially in the
morning. Temperatures will rise into the low and mid 40s.
Tonight mostly cloudy with temperatures falling to around 30.

Sunday cooler with more clouds. Deeper moisture will be moving
in from the southwest ahead of a large storm in the Plains.
Temperatures will slowly warm into the upper 30s and lower 40s
as light drizzle or light rain. Oneida county and some of the
highest elevations of the Catskills should be cold enough for
mixed precipitation.  Again amounts very light during the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

There will be a gradual increase in moisture through the short
term as a closed upper low and surface system spins up over the
center of the country. Earlier runs had more cold air seeping
down into New England from Ontario bringing the risk of freezing
drizzle and rain. That threat has lessened as the cold air
remains further north and east, so while there is the threat of
some freezing precip over the far east and north, very little
ice accumulation is expected.

Despite the closed low, the system moves east and north fairly
quickly with the surface cold front passing the area by midday
Tuesday. Ahead of the front, there will be about a 6 hour period
of light to moderate rain with QPF averaging around a half inch
to three quarters. Most of the overrunning rain associated with
the warm front will fall north of the area Monday leaving the
area cloudy but mild for the first day of the work week.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Cold air advection and a northwest flow will bring lake effect snow
showers into the area into early Thursday. Air is not all that
cold, bottoming out at around -16C at 850mb, so the lake effect
will be limited to snow showers. Flow becomes more sheared with
time as the surface high drops in with a more northerly flow,
and the 850mb and 925mb northwest. Nose of the surface high will
be over the region Thursday night ending the leftovers. High
slides east as the upper ridge builds on Friday with the warm
air advection beginning again in earnest. This should allow for
temps above normal at he end of the week.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR flight categories should prevail across most Central NY/NE
PA terminals through this evening, with a scattered-broken Ci/Cs
deck expected. The lowest CIGs will likely be seen in vicinity
of Oneida County, where some Ac may be seen through this
evening. Light freezing/frozen precipitation may be seen in vicinity of
KRME this evening, but limited areal coverage precludes
mentioning in this TAF package. Most locations will likely see
lower CIGs develop after 21/0600 UTC, with IFR flight categories
possible by sunrise. Right now, it looks like KAVP may remain
the exception as indications are the lowest CIGs should remain W
of the terminal.

Some improvement may be seen 21/1500-1800 UTC, but flight
categories should remain in IFR/MVFR range through this forecast
period as synoptic scale lift starts increasing ahead of the
next storm system.

Outlook...
Remainder of Sunday/Sunday night...Reduced flight categories are
expected to continue. Wintry mix of precipitation possible.

Monday through Tuesday...Flight category reductions continue
under periods of RA.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Possible continuation of
flight category reductions and a chance of SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DAB/TAC
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DAB


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