Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 251845
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
245 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

An upper level ridge of warm air will remain in place as weaker
low level systems pass by the area. This will keep temperatures
well above normal with a small risk of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Wv trickling thru this aftn triggered some very lgt shwrs over the
xtrm north along with a bit of cld cvr. That system will pass well
east of the area ovrngt lvg us gnrly dry with sct clds. Temps has
actually topped out in the mid and upr 80s ahd of the clds but
with upr 40s dew pts, shd drop fairly quickly again this evening.
Next wv aprchs for thu.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Have established a fairly stable ptrn with a stubborn upr rdg over
the est cst. Our fcst area is on the nrn and ern edge of the rdg
so any system topping the rdg may bring a chance of tstms, esp
during aftn htg.

First wv aprchs thu and passes thu ngt. this system shd bring some
sct to isltd tstms thu aftn into thu eve...flwd by renewed rdgg
on fri.

Another wv passes well west of the area on sat which could trigger
conv as well, again peaking in the aftn with htg.

It will be quite warm. While each day rchs into the 80s, sat looks
to be the wrmest as the rdg conts to bld and chance for conv is
lowest. Wld not be surprised to see a cpl temps hit 90f sat aftn,
esp over the nrn Finger Lakes into the SYR area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 pm Wednesday update...

Upper ridge at start becomes a weak trof Tuesday then back to a
ridge Thursday. Convection Saturday night into Monday night, then
maybe a break the rest of the long term. Temperatures remain above
normal throughout. Models in good agreement and used a blend of
the Superblend and WPCguide. Little change from previous.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 pm update...

VFR conditions will continue into Thursday afternoon. Dry also
with only mid and upper clouds. Clouds with a weak front this
afternoon then scattered to clear tonight followed by increasing
clouds Thursday morning.

W to NW winds around 10 knots becoming light and variable tonight.
Thursday south winds at 5 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday afternoon through Monday...mostly VFR. Afternoon and
evening thunderstorms possible any day with brief restrictions
but best chance will be Saturday to Monday. Also during this
period rain showers which reduce conditions. Starting Friday
visibilities could be reduced in the moist air mass to MVFR in
haze and fog.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC



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