Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 011102
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
702 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRADE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE: ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR
FRIDAY AS I SHAVED BACK NORTHERN EXTENT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE TWIN TIERS. OTHERWISE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC
OF A WEAK BACK- DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON
THURSDAY. THE STACKED RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD
SEE SOME INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE CONTINUING TO RESULT IN
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE THICKEST FOG OCCURRING AT
KELM. EXPECT IFR VISBYS BELOW ALTERNATE MINS TO PREVAIL AT KELM
UNTIL AROUND 1330Z WHEN FOG BURNS OFF. FOR KBGM/KITH EXPECT VISBYS
HOVERING BETWEEN LOW MVFR AND IFR ALSO UNTIL MID MORNING.
MEANWHILE LOW STRATUS AROUND KRME RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS MAY TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR BY
15Z. REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE VFR WITH FEW/SCT CU AROUND 4-5
KFT FOR ALL SITES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE. RESULT WILL BE VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN...THICKEST AT KELM
WHERE VISBYS SHOULD AGAIN GO BELOW ALTERNATE MINS. KBGM/KITH WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST MVFR VISBYS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB/PCF
AVIATION...PCF



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