Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 032016
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
316 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly air passing over the Great Lakes will allow occasional
snow showers to continue through tonight in the Twin Tiers to
especially Central New York. Some patchy freezing drizzle is also
possible tonight in these same areas. After a quiet Sunday, a
quick light coating of snow is likely Sunday night, which may make
the morning rush hour slippery early Monday. Unsettled weather
continues most of this week with chances for both rain and snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM Update...

Main concerns in the near term remain focused around the lake effect
rain and snow showers this afternoon...transitioning to all snow
this evening and tonight with only light slushy accumulations
expected mainly in the higher elevations.

Large upper low over far eastern Canada and large amplitude ridge
axis in central Canada this afternoon drawing down a cold air mass
across most of the the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Weak upper
waves embedded in the cold flow combining with 850mb temps -7 to -9
deg C today and tonight will allow the light lake effect rain/snow
bands to continue. Steep low level lapse rates and a shallow layer
of moisture in the boundary layer should be enough to allow the
showers to persist...although there will be a gradual decrease in
coverage and intensity of the showers through this evening as
heights rise aloft and a slightly drier air mass builds in from the
west.

Area observations indicating a mix of rain and snow across the
region with the remaining lake effect bands...and as the evening
progresses and near-sfc temps cool should see a change over to all
snow. There may also be patchy freezing drizzle as the moist layer
becomes shallow and any liquid in the column becomes super-
cooled...falling into a sub-freezing layer all the way to the
ground. So, have added mention of patchy freezing drizzle to the
forecast. Roads and overpasses may become slippery tonight and
Sunday morning.

Conditions should dry out through the morning hours Sunday, with low
and mid level clouds mixing out, leaving a likely shield of high
clouds in advance of the next system which will begin to move in
later Sunday. There will be a fairly strong push of warmer air in
the mid levels Sunday afternoon...but the cold air near the surface
will likely get trapped, and keep afternoon highs only in the low
30s in the higher elevations and in the mid and upper 30s in the
lower elevations.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update...

An area of snow is still likely Sunday night and while not a big
snowstorm by any means, the timing will make the morning commute Monday
morning slick. Some general timing differences with the arrival of
the snow Sunday evening, with the GFS being the fastest and the
EURO slower. Despite these onset issues, a model blend gives us
widespread QPF amounts between a tenth (far south) to as much as
two tenths of an inch across Central NY by mid Monday morning.
Snow ratios start off around 15:1 Sunday evening, but do drop
toward or even under 10:1 by Monday morning as warmer air comes
into the area. Putting this all together expect a general 1 to 2
inches by mid Monday morning. The best chances for near or just
above 2 inches will be in the hills between Binghamton and
Syracuse, along with up I-88 toward the higher terrain between
Binghamton and Albany. The least amount of snow looks to be in the
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton area with up to an inch in the higher
elevations just outside the valley, but generally under an inch
in the metro areas themselves. Again it will be the timing that
will cause issues as a good amount of the snow will fall prior to
and through the rush Monday morning. Beyond Monday morning enough
warm air may move in for a bit of rain before the precipitation
comes to an end. With highs well above freezing Monday, we may
loose much of our morning snow by late in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM Update...

After a mainly dry Tuesday, our next disturbance now over the
Gulf of California, will bring another round of precipitation.
Again overall agreement amongst the models is good in that it is
highly likely we will see a period of precipitation during the
Tuesday evening into early Wednesday period. Timing differences
exist on the front end (GFS has precip prior to dark, while the
other models are mainly dry through sunset Tuesday) and thermal
profiles. A blend of model QPF values is a bit higher than our
event going into Sunday night, or generally between .15" and .30".
Unlike Sunday night we are a bit warmer aloft and at the surface,
so the potential to mix with and change to rain may be faster,
especially in the lower elevations and the farther south and west
you live. With the uncertainty in the precipitation type I
continued to mention a rain or snow mix through mid Wednesday
morning. I did increase chances for precipitation to 80% as our
confidence is high we will see precipitation.


After precipitation diminishes later Wednesday, our next focus in
our active pattern will be the potential for more rain and snow
Thursday, along with much colder air arriving Thursday night into
Friday. By Friday we should be into the heart of the cold air with
850 temps into the teens below zero. This should be more than
enough with a west-northwest wind for lake snows downwind of Lake
Ontario. In general used a model blend which kept chances for
precip in the 30 to 50% range, but I did increase chances by
Thursday night into Friday downwind of the lakes given the
impending colder surge of air.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ceiling heights will fluctuate between fuel alternate required and
VFR...but predominately hover in the MVFR category the rest of
today through Sunday morning. The lake effect clouds will remain
in place and continue to pulse up and down numerous lake snow
bands that will bring IFR or lower conditions to KSYR, KITH and
KBGM. KRME, KITH and KBGM may see another round of fuel alter cigs
early Sun morning before the drier air begins to push in and the
lake clouds lift and mix out at all terminals closer to 18Z
Sunday.

Winds will remain WNW around 10 knots today with gusts of 15 to 10
knots this afternoon. Winds will subside but remain nwly tonight.


OUTLOOK...

Sunday PM...Mainly VFR.

Sunday Night-Monday...Restrictions possible as weak system brings
light snow Sunday night, then spotty rain-snow Monday.

Monday Night-Early Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday Afternoon-Wednesday...Restrictions in wintry mix or rain.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Heden
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...Heden
LONG TERM...Heden
AVIATION...BJT/PCF


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