Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 250747

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
347 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Unsettled weather will prevail in the forecast through Tuesday
with cooler than normal temperatures. Dry weather is expected
on Wednesday.


3 am update...

Quiet for now with no showers. Some dense valley fog has formed
in south central NY and northeast PA early this morning.

Unsettled weather continues as an upper level trough moves into
the area late today and remains into Monday. Today instability
will develop midday as the surface heats up. Waves move through
with a weak late day surface front. Then with cold air advection
and the upper level trough overhead showers will continue. It
might get cold enough for lake enhancement with a northwest low
level flow and 850mb temperatures falling to +5c.

Monday another short wave drops into the trough setting off more
showers. Both days weak instability but moderate shear so
thunderstorms are possible.

Temperatures below normal with highs in the 70s today and around
70 Monday. Lows mainly in the 50s again like this morning.


245 am update... Cool, unsettled weather continues this period.

Lingering showers and thunderstorms early Tuesday evening, will
diminish overnight, as the atmosphere stabilizes. Lows by
daybreak should range from the upper 40s-mid 50s. Any late night
clearing could result in areas of fog, but due to sky cover
uncertainty at this juncture, we`ll let later shifts add this
mention, if needed.

Tuesday, as another short-wave likely rounds the base of the
large-scale trough and impacts CNY/NEPA, at least scattered
afternoon convection is anticipated. For now, we`ll cap
precipitation probabilities near 50%, and emphasize the diurnal
heating maximum in the afternoon. Tuesday will be another cool
day, with highs mostly in the 60s.


3 am update... Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that
the long-wave trough across eastern Canada and the northeastern
CONUS will lift out this period, allowing some height rises and
a more zonal flow to develop with time. This should bring
moderating temperatures, with daily highs back to seasonal
norms for late June-early July (70s and 80s).

Most of Wednesday looks rain-free at this early juncture, with
surface ridging over the mid-Atlantic our main feature. A
frontal boundary perched just to our north near the
international border, along with a return of more humid,
unstable air, will bring the chances for late week showers and
thunderstorms back into the picture. However, none of these days
looks like a washout, with convection emphasized during the
afternoon and early evening hours.


130 am update...

Biggest question if valley fog will form at the TAF sites. With
the FAA comms problem may never know for sure. Unable to get an
observation with busy phone lines and no tower personnel to send
them. With dense VLIFR fog at Sidney and shown on the satellite
in south central NY and northeast PA, have included for ELM.
Have not included anywhere else but it may lift into AVP/BGM
only between 11 and 12z as it burns off. Other sites low
confidence. For ELM have put MVFR vsby fog starting 7z with a
tempo for flight minimums at times between 8 and 12z.

During the day and evening showers will again form with a few
thunderstorms. Most likely at SYR/RME where tempos for late day
nonrestrictive showers were included. Elsewhere could also have
a scattered brief shower.

Light west winds or variable early this morning. Today west
winds at 10 kts with higher afternoon gusts. This evening back
to light west or variable.


Sunday overnight - Tuesday...Mostly VFR, but restrictions are
possible with occasional showers and thunderstorms.


Thursday...Restrictions likely in showers and thunderstorms.




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