Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 201933
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
333 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the eastern U.S. will keep warm and dry
weather over the area through Monday. A cold front will approach
on Tuesday bringing showers and thunderstorms, some of which
will be strong.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over VA this afternoon will move little
through Monday as upper heights build. This will keep the area
dry, with a good likelihood of valley fog with the light
overnight winds and very green vegetation. Deep wave a strong
front approaches Monday night, and models show the possibility
of some isolated showers the Finger Lakes and central southern
tier before daybreak.

With the building upper ridge and low level dry air,
temperatures will rise well into the 80s on Monday. Expect a
good amount of sunshine so eclipse should be visible in the
forecast area, just don`t look at it.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
320 PM EDT Update...
Tues a pronounced shortwave trough will approach the region from the
west and and induce a strong 40-50 knot low-lvl jet across the
region. The systems attendant sfc low will lift NE from the Great
Lakes region and track NE into Quebec Tues evening and force a sfc
cold front across NY/PA Tuesday evening. This system continues
to have the potential for severe weather as strong deep wind
shear is expected to develop, along with pronounced mid-lvl
dynamic support, SB CAPE are projected to be around 1000 J/KG, a
defined sfc boundary will be present, the theta-e ridge extends
through PA/NY, and decent low-lvl helicity is expected. The
part that could inhibit severe weather is the lack of mid-lvl
lapse rates. The greatest chance for development will be during
the late afternoon/early evening and I-81W (however can not rule
out the possibility for sever weather I-81E but it is less
likely).

Showers are expected to move into the Finger Lakes region around 4-5
PM and move east. Strong winds will be the greatest threat. The
chance for precip will linger through the night. The upper level
trough will push through a secondary front around 12Z on Wed and
slowly swing across NY/PA on Wed. The combination of a slow moving
trough, cooler air, steep lapse rates and plenty of low-lvl
moisture may create a few showers on Wed.

Temps will rise into the mid/upper 80s Tues afternoon and fall into
the 60s Tues night. Temps will rise into the mid/upper 70s Wed
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
320 PM EDT Update...
Updated forecast with new WPC guidance...

High pressure is expected to move into the region and
is expected to remain over the area for the remainder of the
forecast period. High pressure will result in dry weather below
seasonal temps.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Exception will
be valley fog once again, with ELM going into LIFR at least late
tonight, with spotty MVFR elsewhere. Mixing will burn off the
fog early Monday returning VFR at all stations.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Restrictions likely in showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday/Thursday/Friday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DGM



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