Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 301834
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
234 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT FRIDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... DRY AIR AT LOW-LEVELS IS STARTING TO OVERSPREAD
THE WESTEERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NY AND PA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS OF 1 PM THE DEW POINT HAS FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES... WITH 55 AT HORNEL IN
WESTERN STEUBEN COUNTY. MEANWHILE LOWER TO MID 70S DEW POINTS
PERSIST OVER THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS ALONG WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING EAST. THIS LINE MAY STILL INTENSIFY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THIS WILL OCCUR EAST OF OUR COUNTIES. FOR OUR AREA
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWERING
DEW POINTS BRINGING A MORE COMFORTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE IN THE
DAY TO ALL AREAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1015 AM... UPDATED TO TIME THE BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE I-81 CORRIDOR.
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING THIS BAND OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED
WITH ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN... ISOALTED THUNDER AND A FEW
WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. SURFACE-BASED CAPES
AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE CATSKILLS ARE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SO
SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR WITH THE LINE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON... BUT BASED ON CURRENT TIMING WE ARE EXPECTING ANY
STORMS TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS UNTIL THE LINE IS EAST OF OUR
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH DESPITE VERY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE DUE TO THE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM. CLEARING WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS FALLING
THROUGH THE 60S... INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


0645 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/TEMP/TD GRIDS
BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR COMPLETE DETAILS.

0345 AM UPDATE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS JUST
ENTERING NY STATE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG IT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON (ROUGHLY 12-18Z)...CLEARING
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY AROUND MID AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES
IN FORECAST THINKING WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL SEE ML CAPES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A LOW STRATUS DECK FORMS HEADING INTO THIS
MORNING. ALSO, 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL AT AROUND 25
KNOTS WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5 TO 5.5 C/KM. THUS,
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS NOT GREAT BUT WITH PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
ISSUES IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FRONT SHOULD
MINIMIZE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING THREAT THOUGH CAN`T RULE
OUT THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
HYDRO ISSUES AS WELL AS ANY ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH STORMS
STILL LOOKS TO BE EAST OF I-81 DUE TO LATER TIMING OF FRONT TOWARD
PEAK HEATING.

BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT DEVELOPING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DRIER, MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MOVING IN. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE ALOFT AS RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. IS
PUSHED WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. HOWEVER TIMING
WITH THESE SYSTEMS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AS
WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG FOR THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST... HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS/VISBYS FOR KELM/KBGM/KAVP.
LOCALLY, SOME VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AND
THIS COULD EVEN BRING VISBYS BRIEFLY DOWN TO IFR. THE NORTHERN 3
SITES, KITH/KSYR/KRME, LOOK TO MOST LIKELY REMAIN VFR UNLESS
AFFECTED BY A HEAVY SHOWER WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
THE FRONT CLEARS ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH CIGS
IMPROVING TO VFR.

LIGHT S/SW WINDS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFT TO W/NW BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.


.OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MLJ/MSE/TAC
AVIATION...PCF



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