Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 011146
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
CONTINUING INTO MIDDAY MONDAY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 445 AM...A SFC TROF WAS DROPPING THROUGH CENTRAL NY WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES WITH THE
LAKE PLAIN INTO THE UPPER 20S. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE TEENS BY SUNRISE.

ONCE THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ENTIRE FA BY MID MORNING AREA
WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY PRECIP FREE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON UNDER
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND MID TO UPPER 20S IN NE PA.

UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE MID WEST WILL TRACK
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE SFC LOW WILL THEN
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON MONDAY THEN OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM INCLUDING THE THERMAL PROFILES. IN
GENERAL MODEL QPF RANGED FROM AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE FAR NRN CWA TO AROUND AN INCH OVER NORTHEAST PA.
UPGRADED THE WATCH IN NRN ONEIDA COUNTY TO WARNING AS QPF TREND
HAS INCREASED HERE WITH SNOW ACCUMS AROUND 7 INCHES LIKELY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY THE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE THE HIGHEST (1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR) AS STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND JET DYNAMICS WILL
BE BEST FROM 03Z-12Z THEN THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY FGEN FORCING MAY
ENHANCE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ERN CWA. GFS/ECMWF/SREF AND 06Z NAM
ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER SRN LUZERNE/LACKAWANNA/WAYNE/PIKE
COUNTIES. FOR THIS REASON LOWERED AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY HERE WITH SOME
LIGHT ICING POSSIBLE. IF THE MIX OCCURS IT WILL CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING. THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEREFORE
ACCUMS HAVE BEEN INCREASED OVER THE NRN CWA. SINCE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS THE H85 LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THE
TREND OF RAISING ACCUMS NORTH AND LOWER SOUTH MAY CONTINUE. IN
GENERAL TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS OF 6 TO 10 NRN CWA, 8 TO 12 CENTRAL AND
8 TO 10 SOUTH WITH SOME ICING POSSIBLE. BY LATE MONDAY A COLD NW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA AS SFC
LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT LIFTS INTO NOVA SCOTIA. COMBINATION OF COLD
TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY REQUIRE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES BY LATER
SHIFTS. SFC RIDGING WILL LIMIT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN NW FLOW. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5
ABOVE TO 10 BELOW.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN
CANADA. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ON
TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. APPROACHING SFC TROF TUE NIGHT
WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. REMAIN COLD IN AN EAST COAST TROF. FOLLOWED LATEST
WPC GUIDANCE. DISCUSSION BELOW STILL VALID. LATE SAT INTO MONDAY A
SLOW MOVING TROF MOVES THROUGH WITH LIGHT SNOW. SOME TEMPERATURE
MODERATION AFTER FRIDAY MORNINGS BELOW ZERO LOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM SAT AFTN...
VERY COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A TROF MOVING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL STRENGTHEN OVER LAKE ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY,
SPREADING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS NY AND PA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND RATHER COLD. BESIDES
THE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, MOST OF THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
COLDEST DAY APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY BEHIND THE MID-WEEK CYCLONE.
925MB TEMPS ARE IN THE -17C T0 -20C RANGE ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
THIS AIRMASS WILL YIELD MAXIMUMS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS FRIGID, WITH WIDESPREAD -5F TO -15F
TEMPERATURES FORECAST. THE RURAL VALLEYS WILL BE EVEN COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...

A WEAK FRONT FROM THE NW HAS BROUGHT MVFR CLOUDS AND FLURRIES
EARLY THIS MORNING NY TERMINALS. SYR AND RME SHOULD RISE TO VFR
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN. ELM ITH BGM NOW MVFR
AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY INTO THE AFTN WHEN THE SNOW STARTS. BGM
AT 1K FT AND COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR THE NEXT 3 HOURS WITH THE
FRONT PASSING THROUGH. AT KAVP MOSTLY VFR BUT COULD DROP TO MVFR
THIS MORNING.

A STRONGER STORM WILL APPROACH NY/PA EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STORM
WILL BRING 1 TO 2 SM VISIBILITIES TO AVP, BGM, ITH, AND ELM
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. BY 03Z VSBYS 1SM OR LESS AND CIGS PROBABLY
IFR. AT SYR AND RME LATER BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING
THEN NE TO E SUN EVE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW.

MON NGT...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM S TO N.

TUE/TUE EVE...VFR.

TUE OVERNIGHT/WED/THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/TAC
AVIATION...TAC





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