Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 181838
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
238 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will yield plenty of sunshine and mild
temperatures over the next few days. Temperatures will rise into
the 70s this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
100 PM update...
Mid-Atlantic high pressure will keep our weather clear and mild
through Thursday night.

A weak frontal system attached to a Canadian cyclone will track
across Northern NY on Thursday. With dry antecedent conditions
in place, precipitation is not anticipated over our forecast
area with the cold front, which is expected to knock
temperatures down a degree or two for late Thursday.

1025 AM update...
Minor updates were made to the near-term temperature grids.
Otherwise, a sunny and mild afternoon is forecast. New grids
will be published by 10:30.

345 am update...
Very quiet weather continues during the near term, through
Thursday afternoon with the main concerns being warmer
temperatures during the day and the potential for patchy valley
fog during the morning hours.

Weak high pressure in place from the Mid Atlantic to the ern
Great Lakes will slowly shift to the e/se today as a dry and
benign upper s/w move across the region...mainly acting to bring
in a layer of thin high clouds. This trough should have minimal
impact on temperatures with highs topping out in the mid to
upper 60s this afternoon.

Not seeing any valley fog form as of 4 am this morning across
central NY or ne PA, due to the amt of mixing in the boundary
layer and the very dry air in place. There is some indication on
satellite of fog to the sw in nw PA, so cannot rule out
completely a few hours of fog in isolated locations this
morning. Similar conditions will unfold tonight and Thursday
morning with modest mixing from a layer of winds aloft and dry
air in place.

Lows tonight will drop into the lower to mid 40s again before a
return to the mid and upper 60s, close to 70 on Thursday
afternoon...under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Ridging builds back in behind Thursday`s front bringing dry and
warmer air back into the region. 850 mb temps and 500 mb heights
are already well above normal again by 00Z Saturday. The ridge
moves little through the short term, and actually strengthens a
bit ahead of the developing plains trough. So, expect Friday to
both be unseasonably warm and dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Little change for Sunday as ridge holds tight ahead of the
approaching wave. Monday will be warm again but clouds should
increase as ridge line moves east and moisture increases from
the south. Slow moving but very strong cold front enters the
area on Tuesday as a surface low races northward across the
eastern lakes. Expect showers to break out from west to east
with colder air moving in by the end of the day.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions and light winds are forecast through Thursday
afternoon. Boundary layer mixing and low dew points should
preclude fog formation at KELM Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon to Sunday...Mostly VFR. Possible early
morning restrictions in fog at KELM each day.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJP


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