Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 271519
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1119 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHARP POLAR TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND,
SETTING OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND SATURDAY, AND CAUSING
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1115 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE JUST MINOR SHORT
TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/POPS. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF, COLD
NW FLOW AND MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPR 30S WITH THE
WARMER VALLEY AREAS OF NE PA AROUND 40.

PREVIOUS DISC...
INCREASED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING FROM
LUZERNE COUNTY UP TOWARD SULLIVAN NY. A PERSISTENT FLOW OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS CONTINUES OVER THIS AREA, RIDING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF OUR SERN FA THIS MORNING.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING POLAR TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
210 AM UPDATE...
A SHARP POLAR TROF IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL DIP DOWN FROM
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE, ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NY/PA. A
WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN NY TODAY.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROF, THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TRACE TO A
HALF INCH THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

THE REAL STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY MORNING AND
RISE ONLY INTO THE 20S OR LOWER 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, MANY SITES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TEENS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN FA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY, BRINGING A
TEMPORARY LULL IN THE WEATHER. THE POLAR AIR IS PROGGED TO BREAK
OFF FROM ITS SOURCE REGION, FIZZLING OUT AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD.
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, MAXES WILL
REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SATURDAY. POWERFUL LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE
WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURES SEEM MORE PLEASANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MIXED PRECIP
AND TEMPERATURES WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT STILL. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
WILL DETERMINE WHAT FALLS FROM SKY. USED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
EURO/GFS BOTH SHOW A STORM TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SO UPPED POPS
THOSE PERIODS. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

CONDITIONS ALREADY IMPROVING AS DRIER AIR MOVES EAST. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING THEN A MVFR CIG COMES IN FROM NW THIS
AFTN AND REMAINS TONIGHT. MIX RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO SNOW LATE
TODAY AND CONTINUING TONIGHT IN NY. PRECIP LIGHT WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SO DID NOT INCLUDE.

MVFR AT BGM/ITH WILL REMAIN. SYR ELM VFR WILL BECOME MVFR DUE TO
CIG THIS AFTN. AVP VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN VFR. MID DECK WILL LOWER
TO 4K FT LATE TODAY.

RME THE TOUGH ONE WITH IFR CIGS NOW. THIS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY
15Z AND REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SFC WINDS W TO NW AT 4 TO 8 KTS SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT TO SUN...BECOMING VFR SAT...THEN VFR SAT NGT AND SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC






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