Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 010834
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
334 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING...TO NEAR LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
FOLLOW THE SYSTEM INTO MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/...

OPEN WV WITH A NARROW SFC TROF PUSHING THRU THE REGION TODAY.
SHEARED SYSTEM HAS LIMITED FRCG AND JUST A GENTLE BROAD AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THE DAY. MODEL QPF OF ARND A QUARTER TO A
HALF AN INCH SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN THE LGT RETURNS SEEN ON THE
RADAR MOSAIC AND THE VERY DRY AMBIENT LWR LVLS. WRKG IN FAVOR OF
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMTS IS THE THE LIFT IS WELL CNTRD IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMP ZONE. UNLESS OTR OFFICES FEEL
STRONGLY...WILL JUST MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX AND POPS
GRIDS AT THIS TIME AND AWAIT THE DVLPMT OF THE PCPN.

SENSIBLE WX FROM THE SHRT TERM MODELS SHOW AN INITIAL BURST OF
PCPN THIS MRNG FLWD BY A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PCPN. THEN...AHD OF
THE NARROW SFC TROF LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...ANOTHER PD OF HEAVIER
PCPN SEEMS LIKELY. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BHD THE SFC TROF LTR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNGT BRINGING A GRADUAL TAPERING OFF OF THE PCPN.
WNW FLOW MAY DVLP SOME LGT LE SNOW LATE TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIPRES BLDS IN MON BRINGING AN END TO THE LE AND SETTLING OVRHD
FOR A VERY CHILLY NIGHT MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.

FIRST LAKE RUNNER IN QUITE SOME TIME APRCHS FOR TUE AS A WV DVLPS
A SFC LOW AND ZIPS IT THRU THE MIDDLE LAKES. SYSTEM DVLPS A STRONG
SW FLOW WAA PTRN WHICH QUICLY BRINGS CLDS AND EVENTUALLY PCPN INTO
THE AREA TUE AFNT AND TUE NGT. PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION INTO TUE EVE BUT THIS STRONG SW FLOW QUICKLY WARMS A
LYR ABV H8 TO NEARLY 10C IN THE SRN TIER AND NE PA. HWVR...OUR
LONG LIVED COLD AIR STUBBORNLY HOLDS ON BLO H8 SETTING UP THE
CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT LATE TUES NGT. IT/S DOUBTFUL
THAT TEMPS AT THE SFC WILL RISE ABV FREEZING...EVEN IN THE CNTRL
SRN TIER...THRU 12Z WED.

ADJUSTED THE TEMP PROFILES AND PCPN TYPE TO REFLECT THE FCST THAT
COLD AIR WILL HOLD FAST INTO EARLY WED AS SHOWN BY THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM THAT IS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE NEAR TERM
PORTION OF THE AFD WILL BE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY BY THURS
MORNING. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THURS NIGHT. THESE
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE ACCUMULATIONS AS MOISTURE
BEHIND THE SECOND SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK TO THE CWA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIET
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUE TO LOOK WELL BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORM... THIS WILL CONTINUE THE COLD TREND INTO MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE SKC NOW FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS, LIGHT SNOW, LOWER VSBYS
AND CIGS ARE RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER.

LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD KITH/KELM/KBGM BETWEEN 09Z WITH MVFR
CIGS AND IFR VSBYS. IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE LATER AT
KSYR/KRME/KAVP, GENERALLY IN THE 13Z TO 17Z PERIOD.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL OR DECREASE IN INTENSITY WHERE WE MAY BRIEFLY
GO BACK TO VFR, SNOW WILL AGAIN INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH THE LOWEST RESTRICTIONS OCCURRING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ALT MINS ARE LIKELY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK AND INCREASE TO 7 TO 12 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK...


EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT TO RAIN WED.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ009-022-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.