Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 021516
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
915 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WITH HOT WX CONTINUING
AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER.  SAME
THING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY.
A FEW DEGS COOLER SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IN THE NRN GULF OF ALASKA
COMES INLAND ACROSS WRN CANADA.  FOR BOISE...CURRENTLY SIX
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 100 DEGREES.  TODAY WILL MAKE SEVEN.  THE RECORD
IS NINE DAYS WHICH WILL BE TIED SATURDAY IF WE GET TO 100...CURRENT
FORECAST HAS 99.  SUNDAY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW 100.  NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE OREGON-NEVADA BORDER
AFTER 20Z. N/NW SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 12 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOVEMENT
OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO NRN CA. MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE...COUPLED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OR/NV AND ID/NV BORDER EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP BRING THE THREAT OF GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND HOT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR MORE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO ENTER THE
AREA WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT WEEK A PATTERN CHANGE IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY AS MODELS
ARE AGREEING ON AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING DOWN THE WESTERN CANADIAN
COAST. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES ARE PRESENT BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PRECIP
CHANCES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN TEMPERATURES LOWERING A
FEW DEGREES EACH DAY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER-MID 90S BY MIDDLE-END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....MT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....EP


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