Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 310231

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
831 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...No forecast changes at this time.  Breezy, cooler
weather today will become warmer and less breezy Tuesday as an
upper ridge, currently along the coast, comes inland.  Wednesday
will be significantly warmer again, but Thursday will level off
as a trough to our north temporarily flattens the ridge.  Then
warmer again Friday through Sunday with temps approaching 100F
in the lowest Idaho valleys as the ridge rebuilds.  Potential for
thunderstorms will begin Sunday as moisture spreads into eastern
Oregon from the south.  All of this is covered nicely by the
current forecast.


.AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear. Surface winds variable 10kt or less.
Winds aloft at 10K FT MSL: NW 5-15kt.


SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday...Post-frontal winds
continue to gust 20 to 30 mph across the Treasure and Magic Valleys
this afternoon. Winds will weaken with sunset, becoming light by
sunrise Tuesday. Main focus of the short-term forecast is an intense
ridge of high pressure, currently centered along the West Coast.
This ridge will shift inland over Oregon/Idaho on Tuesday, bringing
sunny skies and a drastic rise in local temperatures. Afternoon
highs will average 10 to 12 degrees above normal by mid-week.

LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday...Strong upper-level
ridge will remain over the region through the extended period and
will provide above normal temperatures. A weak trough moving
across Western Canada Wednesday night/Thursday will suppress the
upper-level height field slightly and maintain northwesterly flow.
Temperatures approach record highs next weekend as an upper-level
cutoff low approaches California, increasing the southerly flow. Raw
model guidance approaches 100 F Saturday and Sunday which is about
20 degrees above normal for this time of year. However, the cut-off
low will also bring some moisture for a chance of afternoon
thunderstorms, mainly over the mountains. Models in fairly good
agreement with the low pressure system moving across the region
/southwest to northeast/ on Monday. This could bring increased cloud
cover, showers, and cooler temperatures early next week.





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