Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 180953
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
353 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW. BY AFTERNOON BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IDAHO WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE. UPPER TROUGH SHEARS APART WITH SOUTHERN ENERGY
DROPPING ALONG THE CA COAST WHILE THE NORTHERN ENERGY MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY
WHERE SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. FRIDAY IS THE COOLEST DAY /THOUGH STILL ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/. TEMPS RISE 3-6 SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
AMPLIFIES. CHANGE IN THE WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO LOWER THE INFLUX
OF SMOKE FROM LARGE CA FIRES OVER THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CUT OFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN INTO WYOMING THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN THE POSITION
OF THE LOW WHICH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OUR AREA WILL
RECEIVE. GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW WHILE
THE ECMWF...WHICH IS THE WET SOLUTION...BRINGS THE LOW CENTER NEAR
TWIN FALLS. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL ALSO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS WELL...AS THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER AND THE ECMWF IS WET AND COOLER. THE FORECAST REFLECTS A
SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS FAR AS PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
THE MODELS HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
SOMETIME AFTER WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN AT
THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND BEYOND LOOK MUCH COOLER WITH
THIS INCOMING TROUGH WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND MTNS OF
SW ID TODAY WHILE ENDING IN SE OREGON BY LATE MORNING. STRONG SW
WINDS ALOFT OF 35-45 KTS OVER SE OREGON WILL WEAKEN TO 20 KTS OR
LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KTS
ACROSS SE OREGON THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER SW IDAHO.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....DG


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