Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 302041
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...GREATEST INSTABILITY AND CAPE THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN
HARNEY COUNTY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY FORMING NEAR THERE
WITH MORE STORMS UPSTREAM IN NERN CALIF.  A WEAK PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS ALSO COMING INLAND.  0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR IS WEAK.  WE
HAVE DESIGNATED HARNEY COUNTY FOR THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING WITH LESSER ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.  STORMS SHOULD BE
PULSE TYPE WITH LOCAL HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
WIND DOWN LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THEN REDEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LITTLE DAY-TO DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR IN THE RIDGE CIRCULATION WILL FUEL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS EACH DAY. MODELS AGREE
ON BRINGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER OUR
AREA BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AS MUCH AS HALF AN INCH ABOVE NORMAL...LOCAL
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BEFORE 06Z. BASES 8K-10K FEET AGL.
SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT GUSTS TO 30 KTS OR
MORE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTH AROUND 10 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ636.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/AB
AVIATION.....JT


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