Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 240303

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
903 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...A weak short wave located over the far northern ID
panhandle will move to the S-SE along the ID/MT border through
Wednesday. The track of this short wave will be close enough to
our area for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
eastern portions (east of McCall and Idaho City) of the Boise/West
Central ID Mountains Wednesday afternoon. Gusty northwest winds
will ease overnight, then return Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures
will remain below normal. Only update will be to extend the
patchy smoke from the Pioneer fire into the Upper Treasure Valley
east of Boise late tonight through Wednesday morning.


.AVIATION...VFR with some MVFR to local IFR visibilities in
smoke. Surface winds: variable 10kt or less becoming northerly
5-15kt by 18z/Wed. Winds aloft at 10KFT MSL: NW 10-20kt becoming
NE 5-15kt by 21z/Wed.


SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...Mostly clear skies
tonight under a dry northwesterly flow. Another weak shortwave
trough will move south over the region Wednesday, but moisture is
limited with this system so most of the forecast area will remain
dry with a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms
over eastern Valley County. Temperatures on Wednesday will remain
around 5 degrees below normal. As this weak trough continues to
sink south Wednesday night and Thursday dry conditions will return
to the forecast area, but models indicating enough moisture with
this system to keep a slight chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms over eastern Valley County Thursday. Temperatures
on Thursday will remain around 5 degrees below normal. Smoke from
wildfires will continue to impact the region.

LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday...A pattern change will
warm temperatures to near normal this weekend. The weak upper level
trough which has been over the area will depart to the east on
Friday, allowing the upper level flow to shift from northwest to
west on Saturday, bringing warming at the surface and aloft. To our
north models show an upper level trough from Alaska swinging east
over western Canada Saturday and Sunday with no noticeable effects
on our CWA. No precipitation is expected through the weekend. Models
begin to diverge Sunday night, with increasing ensemble spread for
both the GFS and ECMWF. This diminishes forecast confidence for
Monday and Tuesday, but for now we are keeping a dry forecast with
near normal temperatures.





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