Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 291000
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
600 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A BAND OF MID CLOUDS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD THIN OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MIXING
INCREASES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
THESE LOCATIONS...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS AIRMASS IS
DRIER THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO IT WON`T
FEEL QUITE SO MUGGY, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 900-950 MB TODAY, AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT WE`LL SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR, IS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE REGION, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS IS OVERDONE. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID 70S IN MOST SPOTS, THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A BIT
COOLER AS WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES BY WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
AND WITH SOUTH FLOW, EXPECT MARINE FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUN WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY WITH VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS AND SHWRS/TSTMS
FROM A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM CNTRL CAN INTO NW
PTNS OF THE FA BY MID AFTN. WE CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG TSTMS OVR
NW PTNS OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE WITH WHATS LEFT OF A DECENT CAPE
AXIS FROM SRN QB HOLDING OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...BUT MODELS
INDICATE THIS AXIS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER EWRD INTO OUR
FA OVRNGT. SO FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY ENHANCED TSTM
WORDING IN OUR FCST GRIDS...AND WE DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM OUR GRIDS AFT MDNGT SUN NGT...WITH MUCH OF THE RNFL DURG THIS
TM FRAME MSLY POST COLD FRONTAL RN SHWRS.

POST FRONTAL RN SHWRS WILL END N TO S ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING OVR
NRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN MORN AND CLRG THE DOWNEAST COAST SUN EVE.
MOST LCTNS ACROSS THE FA WILL RECEIVE ARND A HLF INCH OF TOTAL
RNFL...WITH SOME LCTNS EXPERIENCING HIGHER CNVCTV RNFL RATES WITH
TSTMS...LCLY UP TO AN INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE
ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEG COOLER THAN SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH CLRG SKIES SLOWLY EXPANDING N TO S ACROSS THE FA...SUN NGT
WILL FEATURE CHILLY LOW TEMPS...SPCLY NRN VLYS WHERE LGT WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY CLR SKIES LATE SUN NGT...ALLOWING A PD OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING THERE. ALTHOUGH ITS TO ERLY TO SAY WITH
CERTAINTY...PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR THE COLDEST NW
VLY LCTNS. MON THRU THU LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR AND DRY WITH A
GRADUAL WRMG TREND...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE
00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWED A SGNFCNTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION FOR TUE NGT THRU WED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER S/WV
TROF FROM THE GREAT LKS...FEATURING SGNFCNT RNFL FOR OUR FA THESE
PDS. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM MORE SHEARED...KEEPING RNFL S
OF OUR FA TUES NGT AND WED. WPC MED RANGE GRAPHICS...SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS ENSM FCST...KEEP RN WELL S OF OUR FA TUE NGT AND WED...SO
FOR NOW WE INDICATE SLGT CHC POPS THESE PDS...AND WILL WATCH THE
TREND OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THIS SYSTEM OVR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER, KBHB WILL REMAIN LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING IN FOG. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
KBHB AND KBGR AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR ALL TAF SITES ON SAT...LOWERING TO MVFR
WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS SAT EVE...THEN TO IFR IN SHWRS AND PATCHY
DOWNEAST FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE
TO VFR FROM N TO S BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG SUN EVE OVR
DOWNEAST SITES. VFR THEN ANTICIPATED ALL TAF SITES LATE SUN NGT
THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA RANGE BY
SAT AFTN...CONTG THRU SAT NGT BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA CRITERIA
ON SUN. NO HDLNS THEN ANTICIPATED SUN NGT THRU TUE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN


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