Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 271420
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
920 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
MIDWEST WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY MORNING AND
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0915 EST: LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
HEAVIEST BANDING HAS NOW MOVED INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STILL SOME
LIGHT BANDING OVER EASTERN AREAS BUT EXPECT THIS TO MOVE OUT OVER
NEXT HOUR WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 1 INCH OR LESS. SO WILL
REMOVE ALL WINTER HEADLINES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LOW IS TRACKING TO A POSITION JUSTSOUTH OF YARMOUTH NS...AND
WILL RAPIDLY SHOOT ACROSS THE LENGTH OF NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
MORNING. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING WITH
JUST AN INCH OR TWO EXPECTED AFTER 7AM. COLDER TOP CLOUDS HAVE
ALREADY PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES AT THIS
TIME IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE BANGOR AREA AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS
EASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTIES. IN THIS CORRIDOR...ACCUMULATIONS REACHING 14 TO 15
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH MANY 10 INCH REPORTS ALREADY. AMOUNTS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS ALONG THE COAST AND IN NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK. SLEET AND FROZEN PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE SE
CORNER OF WASHINGTON COUNTY AND WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW AS
THE LOW TRACKS EAST. WINDS WILL CAUSE LOCAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OF THE SNOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. NORTHERLY GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE BY LATER
THIS MORNING AND FURTHER DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S
NORTH AND AROUND FREEZING FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. SINCE THE WINDS
DROP OFF TOWARDS CALM THIS EVENING...IT SETS THE STAGE FOR A
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD PRODUCE SOME
OF THE FIRST SUBZERO READINGS OF THE YEAR WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS AND MAY NEED TO GO LOWER AS GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO HAVE
TROUBLE WITH THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALOFT...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRI MORNING QUICKLY SCOOTS EAST OF
THE AREA BY FRI EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

SFC...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER A BROAD AREA FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST FRI MORNING. THE RIDGE
WILL BUILD EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SAT MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DURING THE DAY SAT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SUN.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...A COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SAT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF LATE DECEMBER. HIGH TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE
LOW 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS
FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN MAINE FRI AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
WINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST FLOW REGIME DOMINATES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. LOW PRESSURE
NEAR JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT LIFTS NE AND WILL SET UP AN OVERRUNNING
PATTERN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON MORNING.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION SUN ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LIGHT. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MON MORNING WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A SNOW SQUALL ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE WITH
DRY/COLD WEATHER. THE HIGH QUICKLY RETREATS TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT
SETTING UP ANOTHER POSSIBLE OVERRUNNING EVENT TUE NIGHT TO BE
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED. GIVEN THE
FAST FLOW REGIME THE MODELS DO BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR TO IFR IN SNOW WILL BECOME MVFR ACROSS THE AREA BY
MIDDAY AND BECOME VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE A FACTOR
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR BHB AND BGR...BUT DECREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF PATCHES OF MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE IN ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS FRI.  MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SUN. MOSTLY MVFR SUN NIGHT AND
MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE GALE TO 11AM WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY JUST
UNDER STORM FORCE AT JONESPORT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE GALE WILL TRANSITION TO AN SCA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED FRI AND SAT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LIKELY SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE


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