Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 280314
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1014 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON
MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB


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