Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 211011
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
611 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area tonight and Saturday then
move east of the region Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update 6:10 AM: Have adjusted wind, temperature, and dew point
based on latest observations. No other changes.

Strong high pressure located to the southwest of will pass to
the south of New England today then move eastward into the
Atlantic late tonight. This pattern will result in dry
conditions through tonight. Winds are expected to be lighter
today as the high builds and the pressure gradient weakens.
Higher clouds are expected to build over northern and central
areas tonight as warm advection begins as high pressure moves to
the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridge axis wl be building east Sun morning with return flow kicking
in acrs CWA drg the day. Maxes on Sun wl cont to run abv normal as
H5 ridge begins to crest ovr the area with heights 580+ dm in the
aftn. This wl yields highs in the m/u50s acrs the north and l/m 60s
in interior Downeast. Onshore flow wl lkly keep immediate coastal
areas in the 50s.

Return flow gets well-established Sun night into Monday with areas
of fog dvlpng ovr the waters and possibly along the coast Mon
mrng. Frontal bndry extnds fm Hudson Bay thru the cntrl Great
Lks down into the deep south Mon mrng. Hwvr hipres wl dominate
the CWA thru the end of the pd. Highs on Mon wl run 5-8 degrees
abv Sun maxes under warm advection and sunny skies. May see
some drizzle along the coast Mon mrng.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wl begin to see moisture, in the form of showers, return to the area
late Mon night mainly acrs the south. System responsible for
unsettled wx by mid-week is currently appchg west coast of BC and wl
phase with H5 trof currently mvg thru the Rockies. Med range
guidance agrees on phasing systems but differ on amplification and
location. 00z EC closes off low acrs the northeast late in the week
with GFS bringing upr lvl ridging back to the area. For now hv gone
with Superblend and chc pops and unsettled wx beginning mid-week,
contg thru the end of the week.

Depending on timing of system wl determine when strongest winds are
expected. All guidance showing H9 winds of 50-75kts late Tue night
into Wed aftn. PW values progged to range fm 2-4 SD abv normal by
mid-week with potential for elevated instability, but hv not added
in thunder attm due to model discrepancies. GFS/CMC show bulk of
rain falling Tue night into Wed (1.5-2.5 inches) while latest EC
brings in more significant rain to area Wed aftn into Thu aftn (4
inches).

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions through tonight.


SHORT TERM: VFR expected through Sun night with potential for
MVFR/IFR across terminals Mon mrng in southerly flow. Conditions
wl quickly improve to VFR in the afternoon. Restrictions then
lower to MVFR and eventually IFR on Tue morning in low clouds,
fog and rain thru mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM to populate the surface wind speed.
For Waves: Currently a southerly wave system (2-3 feet/6
seconds) which was generated in a southerly fetch across the
Gulf of Maine early Friday, is the primary wave group. This wave
system will subside during the day today. A secondary long
period wave system from the southeast (1-2 feet/9 seconds) will
become the primary wave system tonight. Have used the Nearshore
Wave Prediction System (NWPS) to initialize the wave heights,
however will lower model heights 1 foot to adjust for high
bias.

SHORT TERM: High pressure will keep winds and seas below SCA
levels through Monday before shifting east. Winds expected to
increase to aoa 25kts by Tue aftn, possibly increasing to gale
force late Tue night. A southerly swell is expected to result
in seas from 10-15 feet Wed mrng.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The wind will not be as gusty today as high pressure builds
across the region and then moves east on Sunday. As a result
relative humidity will gradually increase through the weekend;
minimum RH will be in the 50-60% range by Sunday afternoon.
However, no rain is expected until the middle of next week.
Showers are possible Tuesday, but Tuesday night and Wednesday
are the most likely periods to see a wetting rain.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...Mignone/Farrar
Marine...Mignone/Farrar
Fire Weather...Mignone



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