Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 280345

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1145 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Low pressure will intensify along the New England coast
overnight, then cross the Gulf of Maine Friday. Significant
snowfall is expected over especially higher elevations of
northwest and central Maine mountain peaks. Precipitation moves
out briefly Friday night before mostly rain showers return later
Saturday into Sunday with another weaker low crossing the region.
High pressure with drier conditions then builds over the region
Monday into Tuesday.

An area of low pressure will weaken across western New England
overnight while a secondary low intensifies along the New England
coast and high pressure exits across the maritimes. Precipitation
will expand northeast across the forecast area overnight, though
retreating high pressure will slow the advance of precipitation
across northeast areas. Across northern areas precipitation will
be in the form of snow, with a snow/rain mix across central
portions of the forecast area. Across Downeast areas expect
precipitation mostly in the form of rain, though snow could mix
with the rain at times. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are
possible across mostly northern Somerset and northern/central
Piscataquis counties overnight particularly across higher terrain
areas. Snow accumulations across the remainder of northern Maine
are expected to be an inch or less overnight. Little or no snow
accumulation is expected Downeast. All Winter Weather Advisories
remain in effect. Winds will also increase along the Downeast
coast overnight where a Wind Advisory remains in effect. Overnight
low temperatures will generally range from the upper 20s to around
30 north, with readings ranging through the 30s to around 40
Downeast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current
conditions along with overnight cover and
precipitation chances/types.

Previous Discussion...
The potential of accumulating snfl decreases Fri aftn with
decreasing precip rates and warming sfc-blyr temps which should
allow for a transition to msly rn ovr trrn less than 2000 ft abv

Far Nrn areas will experience less snfl due to less fcst liquid
equivalent with a the sfc ow tracking toward srn Nova Scotia,
while Downeast areas experience mainly rain. Precip should then
wind down to sct shwrs Fri eve and then briefly end late Fri ngt.

With the sfc low intensifying ovr the Srn Gulf of Maine, ENE to NE
winds will be an issue Fri ovr Downeast areas, especially alog
the coast where we have issued a wind adv.

Two weak s/wvs will bring msly sct rn shwrs to the region Sat aftn
and Sat eve, and to msly Downeast ptns of the FA Sun and Sun eve.
Temps will be milder this pd.

Mon and Tue look to be drier, and potentially more sunny barring
any left ovr SC cld cvr across the N. The next chc of showers will
be with a weak cold front slated to arrive Tuesday night...crossing
the region by Wed morn. Temps look to be mild behind this front
for Wed aftn into Thu, followed by another...stronger cold front
Thu ngt.

NEAR TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across
northern areas later tonight. Conditions will lower to MVFR/IFR
levels Downeast overnight. Occasional MVFR conditions are
possible across northern areas Friday, with IFR/LIFR conditions
Downeast. Low-level wind shear is also possible Downeast Friday.

SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions improve late Friday night and into
Saturday but will likely return as another system approaches
Saturday night and into Sunday. VFR conditions are expected

NEAR TERM: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the waters late
tonight into Friday evening, with a few storm force wind gusts
possible Friday morning thru midday. Winds then subside to SCA
late Friday night. Visibilities will be reduced in rain overnight
into Friday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas aob marginal SCA thresholds.

ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Friday for
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 2 PM EDT Friday for
     Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052.



Near Term...Norcross/VJN
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
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