Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 170740
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
240 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the state this morning. High
pressure is expected to build across the region on Tuesday. Low
pressure will pass well south of the state on Wednesday followed
by an upper level disturbance crossing the region from Quebec on
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Center of sfc hipes siting up acrs nrn Quebec with ridge axis extndg
south into Ontario. Greatest pressure rises occurring to the east
and expect that high center wl be ovr Newfoundland this aftn. This
wl place most of CWA under sfc ridge axis and supports trend of
secondary low dvlpmnt south of Cape Cod late tonight.

For tda, expect that clds wl gradually fizzle this mrng as cdfnt
passes thru the state lvg mosunny day. Cold advection wl lkly result
in maxes 3-5 degrees cooler than Mon acrs the far north with temps
the rmndr of the area similar.

Expect that CWA wl be hard-pressed to see much in the way of snow
until aft 06z tonight and even at that not expecting much in the
way of accums, with arnd 0.5 inches in the Bangor area.

Mins tonight will lkly be blo zero in the St. John Vly under ridge
axis.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over southern Newfoundland moves slowly off into the
northwest Atlantic through Thu.  A weak area of low pressure just
south of New England Wed morning moves slowly to the east/southeast
with weak high pressure to build back into New England by 00z
Friday.

Precipitation moving into NH and southern Maine moves into an area
of drier air Wednesday with a little bit of light snow or snow
showers across mainly western portions of the CWA, but snow
accumulation is expected to be an inch or less. A shortwave in the
flow moves through later Wed night into Thu morning with some snow
showers across northern areas.  Temperatures Wednesday will be
seasonable, with highs Thursday above average.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A blocking pattern develops with troughs in the vicinity of the
Davis Strait and across the western CONUS as an anomalous ridge
develops near James Bay with 500h on the order of 3-4 std dev above
average for this time of year.  The pattern will be mainly dry with
temperatures well above average. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees
above average and lows of 15 to 25 degrees above average. A few
weak and ill defined disturbances could tough off an isolated snow
shower, mainly Fri night or Sat morning, but no significant storm
systems are expected in a very benign weather weather pattern. The
next more significant weather system may bring precipitation to
the region by around Tue or Wed of next week, and in many areas it
may even be warm enough that it is rain event, but that is still a
long way out. The long range week two outlook from CPC as well as
the climate models would indicate an increased chance that above
average temperatures continue through the end of the month with
some indication that a colder pattern could potentially return to
the region by early February.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours across terminals. May see a brief
window of MVFR late in the period at BGR as next system
approaches from the west.

SHORT TERM: MVFR much of the time Wed and into Thu with brief
periods of IFR possible in any light snow or snow showers.
Predominately VFR Thu night into the weekend, although a weak
disturbance could produce occasional MVFR at the northern
terminals mainly Fri night into Sat morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Expect winds and seas to remain below SCA levels today.
Cannot rule out marginal SCA criteria by 12z Wed morning.

SHORT TERM: Low end Small craft advisory conditions expected Wed
into Wed night, mainly on the coastal waters. Conditions will
likely be below small craft advisory levels Thu through the
weekend as high pressure builds across the waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Farrar/CB
Marine...Farrar/CB


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