Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 252200
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
600 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD
THE OPEN ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
600 PM UPDATE: LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND LGTNG DETECTION ARE SHOWING
ISOLD TSTMS FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VLY OF QB NEARING THE NW ME BORDER.
SO WE INTRODUCED ISOLD TSTMS WITH THE SLGT CHC POPS OVR NW ME TIL
8 PM AND BROUGHT THE E EDGE OF ISOLD SHWRS TO A VAN BUREN TO OXBOW
LINE OF NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY.

OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO SLGTLY MODIFIED
OVRNGT LOWS WHERE WE LOWERED LOWS SLIGHTLY OVR VLY AREAS AND
FROM TRENDS OBSVD FROM 5 PM OBS FROM THE PREV FCST OF 5 PM
TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD BRING AN ISOLATED EVENING SHOWER TO
NORTHWEST AREAS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES EAST SATURDAY WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
MOVE INTO THE STATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS SUNDAY
INTO THE DAY MONDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. FOR POPS AND QPF WILL COMBINE THE
NAM...GFS...SREF...MOSG25 AND ECMWF. THE SKY GRIDS FROM THE
GFS...NAM AND ECMWF. THE MOSG25 WAS USED FOR THE SUSTAINED WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERY WEATHER AT THE
START OF THE WEEK WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
MID WEEK ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO RETURN. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA AND A SMALL SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A PARTLY SUNNY AND COMFORTABLY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC. THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL
SUNSHINE WITH JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHWEST AREAS THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER IS
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY THEN MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
EARLY TUESDAY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES: A
SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO
5-6 FEET/8-9 SECONDS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/MIGNONE
MARINE...VJN/MIGNONE






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