Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 041142
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
742 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HRRR TRACKS THE RAIN AREA ENEWD OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
THROUGH 12Z. 04/00Z HIRES GUIDANCE FAVORS A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN DISORGANIZED
SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING CLOSES OFF AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY. WHILE
THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF...THERE IS A
GENERAL SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN MAX IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF PA WITHIN A
PIVOTING DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NEWD DURING THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD
REACHING THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATEST PCPN
RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTING NWD
INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR SENSIBLE WX
ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE SE.

BINOVC AT THE OFFICE...BUT FILLING IN SOME NOW.

MADE SOME MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 21Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MAIN CHANGE TO 09Z TAFS WAS TO BACK OFF ON THE LOWER CONDITIONS.
THIS WAS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.

SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AT UNV EARLIER...BUT CENTRAL AREAS NOT BAD
NOW. STILL SOME RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST...MAINLY SE. SKIES CLEAR
TO THE WEST AT SITES LIKE JST...BUT BFD HAS DENSE FOG.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST...BUT EASTERN AREAS MAY STAY IFR AND MVFR FOR MOST OF
THE DAY.

SHOWERS AND RAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND THU.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE 06Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN



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