Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCTP 230555
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
155 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION BY LATE TODAY
AND SUNDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE RECENT SIEGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
FROM THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FROM AN APPROACHING
MIDWESTERN FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SFC LOW NEAR KIDI...AND A BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSING SLOWLY
WESTWARD FROM THE SUSQ VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO A
MAINLY CLOUDY AND MILD NIGHT WITH ISOLATED...SLOW MOVING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS.

DIGITAL PRECIP RATES HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST
HOUR WITH JUST A FEW SMALL AREAS EXCEEDING ONE INCH PER HOUR.
RATES JUST PRIOR TO 0330Z WERE OVER 4 INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME
LOCATIONS. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS SEVERAL KFT...AND NO LIGHTNING HAS
OCCURRED IN THESE TROPICAL LIKE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 2 AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ISSUED ACROSS THE
MID SUSQ VALLEY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
SMALL STREAMS WILL EXPIRE SHORTLY. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL...BRIEFLY
VERY HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SLOW MOVING BACKDOOR
FRONT INVOF KIPT AND KSEG... IT APPEARS THAT THE FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS OUR SW ZONES INVOF OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
QUASI-STNRY SFC LOW...WITH BETTER LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
STILL JUST OVER 500 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. ACROSS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL AND NW ZONES...CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY DRY FOR MOST PLACES
THROUGH 12Z.

TOWARDS DAWN...THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL PA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DEVELOPING LOW
STRATUS/RIDGE-SHROUDING FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD UNDER CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
EXPECT ONE MORE MOIST DAY IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER TROF ALONG THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD COMBINING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY
PERSIST WELL INTO SAT AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN MTNS MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE UPPER 60S. FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS...AWAY FROM
THE MARITIME FLOW AND IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW...MAY WARM INTO THE 70S.
THE RESULTING INSTABILITY COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A PM TSRA
ACROSS WARREN CO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A RIDGE DOMINATING THE PATTERN
OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN US.

THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NERN US SLIDING EAST
MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE SATURDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE
FAIR WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND MAINTAINS ITS HOLD UNTIL AT LEAST
THURSDAY WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ADVERTISED TO
APPROACH...ALBEIT IN DIFFERENT FASHIONS BY THE VARIOUS MED RANGE
GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP US DRY THROUGH AT LEAST LATER
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GEFS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC BRINGING MEASURABLE
RAINS EAST QUICKER UNDER A FLATTER UPPER FLOW. THE GEFS UPPER
PATTERN MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOWING A
WEAKER TROUGH HANGING BACK IN THE MID WEST AS HEIGHTS IN THE EAST
SLOWLY FALL WITH THE EAST COAST RIDGE FLATTENING OUT IN TIME.

THE DIFFERENCES ARE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROWING
DOUBT ON THE FORECAST SO I OPTED FOR A RATHER BLAND CHANCE OF
SHOWERS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL THE LAST FULL WEEK OF AUGUST WILL BE A SUMMERY ONE FOR
THE FIRST DAYS OF SCHOOL IN MANY COMMUNITIES. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEN WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AT
LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE AIRMASS SITUATION
BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY REGION. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO CONTINUES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES.

AS SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD. EXPECTING LARGE AREAS OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BY MORNING. EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
REGION...WHERE GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...WILL
SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WITH A
SC BKN/OVC DECK OF ABOUT 35K TO 45K ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS TO ALSO REGENERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MID WEEK. FRONT APPROACHING LATER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MAY BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...LOW CIGS...FOG AND DRIZZLE EARLY...THEN VFR WITH SCT SHRA.
MON-WED...MORNING RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.