Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 270031
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
731 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will pass south of Pennsylvania tonight, then off
the east coast Monday. Low pressure will track out of the Ohio
Valley and north of the area during the middle of the week
bringing a mild and rainy period, followed by a potent cold
front late Wednesday that will usher in a return back to colder
temperatures for late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A clear and chilly evening is underway across central Pa, as
high pressure passes south of the state. However, not expecting
temps to fall too far overnight, due to an active southwest
breeze. Blend of LAMP and earlier NationalBlend support min
temps in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast early Monday with
mid-level clouds increasing ahead of a weak shortwave tracking
through the Mid MS/OH Valley. Maintained low pops Monday as into
Mon night with scattered sprinkles or very light rain showers
the expected outcome - mainly for western/northern mtns. Highs
bounce back above average into the 40s to lower 50s.

Warm front lifts toward PA Mon night, but biggest impact will be
thickening of cloud cover, and maybe a sprinkle in spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Prominent southwest to westerly flow will dominate the long term
period with several shortwave trofs dropping into the central
U.S. and providing chances for unsettled weather.

Elongated low developing over the central U.S. on Tue will edge
a warm frontal boundary toward the region, bringing chance for
light precipitation and ushering in another round of warmer than
normal temperatures (though not as high as the past few days).
By Wed, upper wave catches up to the low, bringing a more
significant rainfall, followed by a cold frontal passage.

Colder and very breezy conditions then in store for late week in
NW flow, along with sct lake effect snow showers in the NW Mtns.

Cooler air lingers into the weekend as upper flow remains from
the NW.

Yet another weather system slides through the Great Lakes over
the weekend, with center of low likely remaining to our north.
The greatest shower chances are over the NW half of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The Center of high pressure will slide by well to the south of
PA this evening and drift off the Delmarva Coast late tonight.
Mainly clear skies will occur early on with light west to
southwest winds lasting through the mid morning hours Monday.

An area of alto cu and alto stratus clouds (associated with a
warm front) will move east-northeast from the Ohio River Valley
and overspread mainly the southern half of Pennsylvania very
late tonight through the mid morning hours Monday. This
generally overcast mid-cloud layer will spread further northeast
across the remainder of the state late Monday morning and
Monday afternoon, followed by a lower and borderline MVFR
stratocu cloud deck across southern PA Monday afternoon with
scattered light rain showers.

Warm front lifts toward PA Mon night, with MVFR cigs becoming
likely in the west. But biggest impact will be thickening of
cloud cover, and maybe a sprinkle in spots.

Outlook...

Mon...VFR.

Tue-Wed...Rain showers/Sub-VFR reductions likely. LLWS poss.

Wed night...Strong FROPA early with gusty winds.

Thu-Fri...Sub-VFR likely west in sct snow showers. NW winds.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Ross/RXR
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...Ross/Gartner
AVIATION...Lambert


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