Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCTP 290847
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
447 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE STATE
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS STILL SOUTH OF THE CWA...THOUGH HRRR RUNS SHOW A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING CLOSE TO THE PA/MD BORDER.
OTHERWISE LOOK TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
AS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY THE DAYTIME
HEATING...THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
AND WILL PUT DOWN SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WITH SURFACE MOISTURE BACK...A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
SUNSET. WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST OF CWA AND TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WITH
BETTER FORCING AND THE WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POPS CONTINUE HIGH SAT NIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY WX
APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF PA
AND A LIKELIHOOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN/SHOWERS. ANOMALOUS EASTERLY
FLOW/PWATS INDICATED IN GEFS OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN SFC HIGH OVR
NEW ENG AND FRONT TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE
MOISTURE...CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN IN FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE REGION
SUN-MON..PROVIDING THE LG SCALE FORCING TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF MUCH
NEEDED RAIN SUN. DRYING TREND BEGINS MONDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT JUST SOME SCT CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A
STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE AT 06Z...AND AN AREA OF BELOW NORMAL /SUB 0.50/
PWAT AIR AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE.

ALTHOUGH VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MOST AIRFIELDS FOR MUCH OF
TODAY...KLNS COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG THIS MORNING SINCE THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED OUT SFC BOUNDARY COULD BEGIN TO DRIFT
NORTH AND TRANSPORT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO THE OTHERWISE
CLEAR AND COOL AIRMASS WITH LIGHT WIND.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN AREAS LATER ON
FRIDAY...AS MUCH HIGHER PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES STREAMS NE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE...HAVE VCSH MENTIONED FOR KBFD
AND KJST AROUND AND AFTER 19Z.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS EARLY. SCT-NMRS AFTERNOON TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

SUN-TUE...VFR/MVFR CONDS WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.