Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 301412
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1012 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE CHANNELED NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE MOISTURE WILL HIT A WEAK...STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
TIMING OF DISSIPATION OF MCV-DRIVEN RAIN SHIELD IS SPOT ON.
ADDITIONAL FORCING IS STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND HELP POP SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA. A TALLER CU OR TWO AND
PERHAPS A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OFF THE HIGH HILLS OF THE SC MTNS
AND SE COS. AGAIN...ALL ON TRACK.

PREV...
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN APPROX 60KT UPPER LEVEL WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SRN NEW YORK AND NRN PENN THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED
BENEATH THE TAIL END OF THIS JETLET /JUST NW OF KPIT AT 09Z/. THE
DISTINCT FEATURE AND ITS SPIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TWD THE
NORTHEAST AND IMPACT PRIMARILY THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS OF
THE STATE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. AREAL COVERAGE OF TSRA IS
STEADILY DECREASING /AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN THE MORNING DURING THE
LATE SUMMER/.

SFC BASED CAPE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 300-500 J/KG
ACROSS THE NW MTNS THIS MORNING WITH THE ADVECTION OF 1.5 INCH
PWAT AIR FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PRESENCE OF A QUASI-STNRY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL LEAD TO NEWRD EXPANSION OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED TSRA EARLY TODAY.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE PLACES IT ACROSS NCENT PENN DURING THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY CONVECTIVE MIN PORTION OF THE DAY...SO EXPECT
VERY LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER THIS MORNING.

CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PENN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

PATCHY LIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SERN PENN THROUGH 13Z.

TEMPS AT SUNRISE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH LOW-MID 60S FOUND ACROSS THE METRO
AREAS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE MESO-B SHORT WAVE LATE THIS
MORNING... DIFF NEG VORT ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A MIN IN
CONVECTION BETWEEN 15-18Z. INDICATIONS /VIA A BLEND OF THE HRRR
AND WRF ARW/ ARE THAT CONVECTIVE...SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE NRN MTNS LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

MUCH MORE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE FOUND NEAR...AND TO THE SE OF
A LINE FROM KFIG AND KIPT...TO KAVP.

AFTER THE INITIAL...RATHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE ALOFT LIFTS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS MORNING...THE ATMOS WILL
RECHARGE TO OVER 1000 J/KG CAPE IN SOME AREAS...AND BE CAPABLE OF
FIRING OFF SCTD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND
ALLEGHENIES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO
VIRTUALLY NO CHC OF RAIN OVER THE SE COUNTIES OF OUR CWA.

BASIN AVG QPF WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW COMMUNITIES UP NORTH COULD SEE 0.25-0.50
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND
SURROUNDING AREAS WHERE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
NORTH INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.

PARTIAL CLEARING AND SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROAMING THE
REGION.

SFC BASED CAPE IS MUCH HIGHER MONDAY...BUT INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT
AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA /MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE/.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO NEAR 90F IN THE LARGER METRO AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH 850HPA
TEMPS RUNNING 16-18C WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-NORMAL
SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LOW.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF INTERESTING FEATURES THAT BEAR WATCHING FOR
LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST IS THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH ARE FCST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL/GA COAST BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS MOISTURE DIFFUSES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S....SOME OF IT WILL GRADUALLY CRAWL INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT SOME MODELS BRING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT
THURS/FRI. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIR THAT WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WILL KEEP MENTION OF AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE LATTER
FEATURE COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK...TAPERING
BACK TEMPS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSYBS THIS MORNING IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL
GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS AS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND WILL BE IN THE NW MTNS THIS
MORNING THROUGH 15Z. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ...THOUGH
PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER. MVFR AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES FROM
PATCHY FOG WILL BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING. MVFR IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

MON...STILL SOME SHRA/TSRA POSS.
TUE-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED AREAS MVFR OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU


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