Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 290648
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
248 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE OVERNIGHT IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL MTS. BREAKS IN THE DECK ARE ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE
11-3.9MICRON IMAGES. EXPECT THE BEST CLEARING OVER THE SE WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ALSO IN THE SW WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING SEEN IN
THE DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING UPSTREAM IN WRN PA.

IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50F OR LOWER FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW TEMP. SERN
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART. BEST SHORTWAVE OF THE SERIES
IS TIMED IN FOR WED DURING THE DAY AND SPC SEE TEXT IN NEW DAY TWO
IS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTING SMALL HAIL FROM THE SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH
ARE EXPECTED AND VERY SLIM CHC OF 1 INCH HAIL FROM A STRONGER
CELL OR TWO. THE 8H TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE CONSIDERABLY BETWEEN NOW
AND WED AFTN/EVE...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE
THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND BETTER COVERAGE THAN WHAT SHOULD OCCUR ON
TUESDAY/TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT SHOULD GET
SLIGHTLY WARMER EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS GONE NOW...BUT STILL SOME CLOUDS.

EXPECT LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY THAN ON MONDAY.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS
AT KBFD AND JST...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR HAS
TEMPORARILY IMPROVED CONDS AT KBFD/KJST WITH BOTH LOCATIONS
REPORTING ONLY A SCT LAYER ARND 800FT AT 03Z. HOWEVER...MODEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY RESULT IN A
RETURN TO IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS WILL OCCUR BTWN 09Z-12Z. FURTHER
EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD BETTER FLYING CONDS IN THE
RIDGE/VALLEY REGION WITH OCNL MVFR LIKELY AT KAOO AND KUNV. THE
LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OVERNIGHT.

ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE
STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS
ARND 5KFT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN


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