Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 130716
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
216 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AND RESULT IN
STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS. AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN A STRENGTHENING STORM WILL
LIFT UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR AT 07Z SHOWING SCT SHSN ACCOMPANYING ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR
MASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. PASSAGE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND
ARRIVAL OF LOW PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA BY ARND 09Z...WITH ONLY MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED BASED ON LATEST MDL OUTPUT. BY
DAWN...EXPECT THE ONLY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS TO BE FALLING OVR
THE LAUREL HIGHLAND ASSOC WITH LK HURON CONNECTION AND ALSO ACROSS
THE SNOWBELT OF NW WARREN CO.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WITH READINGS BY DAWN
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ARND ZERO OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE MTEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE PLUMMETING TEMPS...COMBINED
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT...SHOULD CREATE WCHILLS NR
20 BLW ZERO ACROSS THE N MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL POUR INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY NW WINDS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS. ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY OUTSIDE OF THE PREVIOUS WIND CHILL FLAGGED AREAS WHERE
CHILLS WON/T MEET CRITERIA...BUT WINDS WILL GUSTS AROUND 40KT AT
TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WE`LL SEE THE COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPS SINCE LAST WINTER
TOMORROW. GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN -22F AND -25F SHOULD SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE
LOWER AND MID TEENS IN THE SE.

LK HURON CONNECTION SHOULD SHOULD FOCUS THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW WARREN CO AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO SEEMS LIKELY BASED ON NCAR MESOSCALE
ENSEMBLE.

LOSING CONFIDENCE IN LES WARNING/ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NW MTNS FOR
SATURDAY. BONE DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS FLOWING OVR THE LAKES WILL
LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF LK HURON PLUME AND LATEST MDL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
INDICATED ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN COS. LATEST SPC SSEO INDICATES
ALMOST NO CHC OF 3 INCH AMTS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND NCAR MEAN
SNOWFALL SATURDAY ONLY AN INCH OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
 CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND. POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT
 WEEK.

POLAR VORTEX DIVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH ARCTIC BLAST INTO CENTRAL PA
LATE SAT-SUN. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP A MEAN TROUGH
IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SEVERAL REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN
TROF POSITION.

THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK...BUT THERE IS STILL
A DECENT SPREAD. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS LIKELY MON-TUE BUT THE TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEXT WEEK SHOULD END ON A MILDER NOTE.

THE COLDEST TEMPS/WCHILLS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT OVR THE AREA...AS
8H TEMP ANOMALIES OF NEAR 3SD BLW CLIMO GRAZE THE AREA. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM ARND ZERO IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TO -10F IN THE
NORTHWEST MTNS. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED
RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

THE MODEL SPREAD HAS NARROWED A BIT CONCERNING A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE MID ATLC/NORTHEAST NEXT MON-TUE. LATEST
GEFS AND ECENS INDICATING A SFC LOW TRACK ACROSS EASTERN PA IS
MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD FAVOR RAIN ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS THE W
MTNS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON PTYPES ACROSS WESTERN PA...BUT NOW
DEFINITELY FAVORS RAIN ACROSS THE EAST. ALL THE MODELS ARE
SIGNALING A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT...AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED
POPS IN THE LKLY RANGE FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK...AS HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE AND A PSBL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE WEST OF PA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SQUALL CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER THE LATEST
MODELS AND ANALYSIS SHOWS IT IS SPLINTERING AND WEAKENING AS IT
MAKES ITS WAY INLAND. DOWNSLOPE FLOW KICKS IN LATE
TONIGHT...BRINGING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN MOST PLACES THROUGHOUT
THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...THOUGH IN THE LINEAR BAND OF
SNOW EXPECT REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS. THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING
SNOW/UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...WINDY. SHSN/REDUCED VIS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AM.

SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON...PM SNOW POSSIBLE.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...SNOW LIKELY NW HALF OF PENN...WITH RAIN OR
SNOW IN THE SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-037-
041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ010-017-024-033.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ010>012-017-
018-024-033.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU


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