Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 252250
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
250 PM PST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DELIVERS BRISK AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TO
THE REGION. EVEN COLDER AIR IS IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH MONDAY)...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN
OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH BROAD NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
KEEPING ANY SHOWER DEVELOPED OFF THE COAST. THUS DRY CONDITIONS
ARE NOW ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH A COLD AIR MASS
NOW IN PLACE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THREE ZONES HAVE NOT YET HAD A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE THIS WINTER SEASON...COASTAL MENDOCINO...REDWOOD
COAST...AND NORTH COAST INTERIOR. THUS FROST AND FREEZE WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE LIKELY WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND FROST DEVELOPMENT WITH MID 30
DEGREE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST. EVEN WITH THE AIR MASS
SLIGHTLY MODIFYING ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND MORE FROST AND
FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE THREE ZONES.

A SMALL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER THIS WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER EVEN COLDER FRONT DIVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
TOWARD NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IN GENERAL THIS
FRONT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. RPA


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...COLD AIR GETS
REINFORCED AS TROUGH LINE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR
MOVING IN FROM NW CANADA. EC IS COLDEST OF MODELS WITH 850MB TEMPS
COOLING AT 850 MB TO ABOUT -8 C TUESDAY MORNING WHILE GFS IS -6
AND CMC -5. COLDEST TEMPS WILL EITHER BE TUE OR WED MORNING
DEPENDING ON WHAT THE EASTERLY WINDS ARE DOING AT A PARTICULAR
LOCATION. POSSIBLE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AT THE COAST AND UPPER
TEENS TO 20S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS. MODELS THE SAME IN CLOSING OFF
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL CA BUT DIFFER IN WHERE AND HOW
DEEP THE LOW WILL BE. FLOW OVER NW CALIF REMAINS A DRIER NE FLOW
FOR BOTH MODELS. WHILE IT IS OUTSIDE THIS FORECAST PERIOD, EC
BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH IT BEING
REINFORCED BY COLD AIR ALOFT. GFS TAKES IT WELL INLAND. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER. DEAN


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT THE COAST. BY LATE
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVELS DECOUPLE EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND SKIES TO STAY RELATIVELY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
ONLY LIMITED MIST OR GROUND FOG FORMING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
NEAR KCEC. INLAND GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND ALSO THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME INTERIOR OVERNIGHT AND MORNING VALLEY
FOG BRINGING LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...INCLUDING THE VICINITY OF
KUKI. MKN


&&

.MARINE...ASCAT PASS FROM 10 AM SHOWED WINDS HAD SLACKED OFF TO 20-
25 KT AS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH MOVES TO THE CENTRAL CA COAST TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN STARTING FRIDAY WITH THE
WINDS DECREASING THROUGH SAT. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AND SCA WINDS
RETURNING TO THE OUTER WATERS. ONE SWELL TRAIN WILL BE COMING IN
FROM THE NW PACIFIC FRIDAY NIGHT REINFORCING THE 13 SECOND SWELL BUT
THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 7 FEET AS THE WINDS
DECREASE.

BUOY 46014 OFF OF PT ARENA HAS BEEN HAVING INTERMITTENT
COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS SINCE WED. NDBC WILL NEED TO SEND A
TECHNICIAN TO DETERMINE THE PROBLEM BUT THAT IS CURRENTLY NOT ON
THEIR MAINTENANCE SCHEDULE. DEAN


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     CAZ001-002.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     CAZ003.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ450-455-470.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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