Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 252043

National Weather Service Eureka CA
143 PM PDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Moist northwest flow will continue rain chances
through Wednesday afternoon. After Wednesday, the weather pattern
will change drastically as an upper level ridge builds over the
Pacific Ocean. The result will be much drier and warmer conditions
compared to the current weather pattern.


.DISCUSSION...Showers will continue over the area through the
afternoon and evening hours, concentrated along the coast north of
Cape Mendocino. Rain will pick up in intensity and become more
widespread over the area during the overnight hours as a trailing
cold front moves through. A reinforcing shortwave will move
through behind the cold front, resulting in another quick burst
of heavier precipitation Wednesday morning, focused over the
northern coast and coastal mountains. As the day progresses
Wednesday, lingering showers will taper off as the air mass begins
to dry. In the meantime, heights will begin to rise as an upper
level ridge builds off the coast of California.

This ridge will be responsible for the drastic change in the
weather expected for the remainder of the week and into the
weekend. Clouds will eventually dissipate during the day Thursday
as the air mass dries further. At the surface, a thermal trough
pattern will begin setting up Friday, resulting in north to
northeasterly winds for the forecast area. As we head into the
weekend, expect dry and mostly sunny conditions. The caveat to
this will be if marine stratus develops under the thermal trough
pattern. If it does, then coastal locations could remain much
cooler and under overcast skies. /BR-y


.AVIATION...MVFR cigs with local IFR conditions in heavier showers
are currently in place along the coast with VFR conditions
elsewhere. The lower conditions are expected to persist and spread
south as the remainder of the afternoon progresses. Terrain
obscuration will be common throughout the TAF period. Showers are
expected to pick up in intensity between 10-12z as a cold front
makes it way through the area tonight. /BR-y


.MARINE...South winds will continue this evening as a quick
moving storm system passes over the region. Southerly winds will
persist into early Wednesday morning then winds will quickly turn to
the west, then to the north during the day Wednesday. The area will
then be under the influence of high pressure beginning Thursday and
Friday. This will tighten the pressure gradient offshore and result
in northerly small craft winds and a fresh short period swell.
Northerly winds are expected to continue into early next week.
Additionally, a westerly swell in the 10 to 12 second range will
persist through much of the forecast period. /CC



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