Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 022211
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
311 PM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. DRY
AIR WILL OVER TAKE THE REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO A BREAK IN STORM ACTIVITY. BEGINNING THURSDAY...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LEADING TO A RETURN OF DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGHER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH A
MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE BROUGHT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-40 TODAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE NOW
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL YAVAPAI. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
ISSUED THROUGH 5 PM FOR THE FLAGSTAFF REGION...AND UNTIL 8 PM MST
(9PM MDT) FOR THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE AS VERY HIGH
RAINFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. EXPECT MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY TO CLEAR THE FLAGSTAFF AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER OVER NORTHEAST AZ THROUGH MID EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA SHARPLY REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT MOST PLACES.

FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...LONGER TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ON THE RISE AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO AND A WEST COAST
TROUGH. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN OF DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 01Z-04Z...WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS
ALONG/NORTH OF I-40 AND EAST OVER NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS
WHICH WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
-SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL
8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ009>013-039-040.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ006-007-
015.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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