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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 130432
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 PM MST THU DEC 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
PRIMARILY TO THE MOGOLLON RIM. DRY WEATHER WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS IS FORECAST FOR ALL THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BEST AND DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES OVER IN THE EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE...SAFFORD OVER THE DAY WENT
FROM UPPER TEEN DEW POINTS TO NOW AROUND 40. CLOUDS HAVE THIN OUT
OVER MOST OF COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE COCONINO PLATEAU NORTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF.
IT WAS DECIDED TO LOWER PRECIP CHC`S OVER PORTIONS OF COCONINO AND
YAVAPAI COUNTIES AND KEEPING HIGHER CHC`S IN FOR PORTIONS OF NAVAJO
AND APACHE COUNTIES WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED NORTH
OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. MODEL FORECAST HINT AT SOME OF THAT MOISTURE
WORKING NORTH...NORTHWEST UP TO AROUND MORMON LAKE OVERNIGHT...HENCE
THE HIGH POPS INTO THE MORMON LAKE HAPPY JACK AREAS AND DOWN ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /300 PM MST/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NOW ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WAS
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. RADARS DO SHOW SCATTERED
CELLULAR CONVECTION IN THE CORE OF THE LOW AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
MADE A FEW FORECAST CHANGES...THE FIRST TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM SUPAI TO THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT AND TO LOWER
FORECAST LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS AND IN TURN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ELSEWHERE. YAVAPAI COUNTY AND THE MOGOLLON RIM SHOULD SEE SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
APACHE COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME LOOKING FOR UP TO AN INCH OF NEW
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT CONFIDENT AT ALL THAT FREEZING
RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OF APACHE COUNTY AND HAVE LEFT IT
OUT OF THE GRIDS.

ON FRIDAY...LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS APACHE
COUNTY AS THE UPPER LOW CLEARS OUT. ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER TO RETURN.
A FAST MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TO CROSS THE STATE LATE FRIDAY...THE
MAIN IMPACTS ARE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FAST NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HERE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER BOTH DAYS
BUT BREEZY NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  BUILDS
IN THE GREAT BASIN.

STARTING MONDAY...PROGS SLOWLY MOVE THE RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH WINDS ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT SCT
-SHSN/-SHRA WITH SCT MVFR AND ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS...SOUTHEAST OF A
KCEZ TO KFLG LINE WITH CIGS 2-4 KFT AGL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AIRFIELDS. ISOLD TSRA IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THROUGH 08Z
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KCEZ TO KFLG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFT
12Z...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC/DL
AVIATION.......TC/BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF