Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231006
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 AM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS MONSOON CIRCULATION RETURNS TO ARIZONA. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAVORABLE CIRCULATION WILL IMPORT DECENT PW VALUES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
LACKING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL HGHTS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS
A BIT CAPPY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE
TO AT LEAST STATE THAT THE MONSOON IS BACK...JUST THAT COVERAGE WILL
BE LIMITED AND HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS ARE UNLIKELY. THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR STORM
ACTIVITY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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