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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 211039
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 AM MST MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN NORTHEAST
ARIZONA. FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING WINDY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WARM RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ TODAY
AND DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH SINCE SUNDAY WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER THAN SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BE MORE
ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO
AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING DUST IN NORTHEAST
ARIZONA. TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOKS LIKE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT HAS SLOWED. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF ARIZONA. MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT REACHES NW ARIZONA. ON WEDNESDAY...
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL...WITH BREEZY WINDS
CONTINUING ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY AND MILD WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MOST AVAILABLE MODEL DATA
NOW INDICATES THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH AND TIMING
OF THE LOW. STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR PRECIP CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH ISOLATED -SHRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT 18Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TUESDAY WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS A DRY COOL FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FEET SHOULD SEE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA. FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
WEEK WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH LATE TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING FOR AZ FIRE ZONES
105>110-112>114-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF