Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 210443
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
943 PM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...On Wednesday, expect dry weather along with well below
normal daytime temperatures. On Thursday, increasing southwest
winds are forecast ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold
front is forecast to sweep across northern Arizona from late
Thursday through Friday bringing a continuation of gusty winds
and chances for accumulating snow. Dry weather and lighter winds
return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Another cold night is forecast for northern Arizona
under mostly clear skies and light winds. Expect low temperatures
in the teens to single digits across most of Arizona`s High
Country. No forecast updates are anticipated this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /232 PM MST/...Dry and cold weather will continue
into Wednesday before the next storm system affects northern
Arizona Thursday and Friday. This system will bring gusty
southwest winds and increasing shower chances. The cold airmass
ahead of this system will lead to low snow levels at the onset
and throughout the storm, ranging from 3,000-4,000 ft. There are
subtle differences in model solutions, but enough confidence
exists to continue the trend of increasing POPs and QPF. The cold
front associated with this system is expected cross the region
Friday afternoon with some snow showers lingering in the post-
frontal environment. The bottom line is stay tuned to forecasts
over the next few days if you have travel plans in northern
Arizona Thursday night or Friday as travel likely will be
hazardous.

Snow showers will end overnight Friday into early Saturday morning
with a return to calmer and drier weather through Sunday. The
pattern remains active for next week with another system
approaching from the northwest Tuesday bringing the possibility of
precipitation chances into the middle of next week. Still
somewhat early to speculate on any outcomes with this system but
will continue to look for model agreement as time moves closer.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06z package...Expect VFR conditions across
northern Arizona over the next 24 hours. Mid-level cloud cover
will increase through the day, with bases remaining at or above 5
kft AGL. After 18Z, expect south to southwest winds from 10 to 15
knots with gusts from 15 to 25 knots at most places. Aviation
discussion not updated for amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...On Wednesday, expect dry weather with daytime
temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below normal. On Thursday,
increasing southwest winds are forecast ahead of an approaching
cold front.

Friday through Sunday...A cold front is forecast to sweep across
northern Arizona late Thursday and Friday. As a result, expect a
continuation of gusty southwest winds and chances for accumulating
snow. Dry weather and well below normal temperatures are forecast
for Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/TPS
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff



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