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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031101
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
401 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. A SECOND STORM WILL
APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AFTER A COLD BUT DRIER DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A
WARMING TREND RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO OUR WEST OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST AND HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY UPSTREAM ENERGY THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
GENERATING ENOUGH LIFT IN OUR SATURATED ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA WHERE SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE FLAGSTAFF
AREA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING FAVORING
SOUTHERN COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM UTAH BY THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCES INSTABILITY AND WILL LIKELY
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PUSHES A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT PRECIPITATION HAS NOT ENDED FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY WITH UP TO 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOVER
FROM 4500-5500 FEET...SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARDS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING
UP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGN OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...WITH
PATCHY LOWER CIGS AND FOG. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
COVERAGE THROUGH 18Z THEN INCREASING COVERAGE AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LCL IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF