Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 312127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
227 PM MST WED AUG 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect fair weather tonight. Monsoon moisture will
increase across Arizona thursday and Friday, and scattered
showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the Northland. A
drying trend will start Saturday as a Pacific trough brings
southwesterly flow into northern Arizona.


A mid level cap has kept this afternoons storms widely scattered
and on the weak side. Any additional storm activity should end at

Moisture and instability look to increase substantially Thursday
and Friday across all of northern Arizona. An increase in
thunderstorm coverage and potential for stronger storms is
anticipated each day.

A Pacific trough looks to move inland and across the mountain
west this weekend, with dry southwesterly flow aloft. The monsoon
moisture plume should be moving eastward on Saturday, with precip
chances decreasing or ending from west to east through the day.

Dry weather is forecast for Sunday and Monday across the
northland, cool morning low temperatures (lower 40s) should be
expected in the mountains. Expect breezy southwest winds during
the afternoons.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Isolated to scattered -SHRA/TSRA
through around 02Z over the higher terrain, mainly along/south of
Mogollon Rim. Brief MVFR conditions in the stronger storms. Only a
slight chance of -SHRA overnight south of KFLG-KRQE line. Scattered
SHRA/TSRA in most areas after 18Z Thursday as additional moisture
moves in from the southeast. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF





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