Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 292258
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
358 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a cooling trend and increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms heading into the weekend. The best
chance for heavy rain and a few strong storms will be south of
Flagstaff today.

&&

.UPDATE...High pressure is centered over southern NV/northwestern
AZ today keeping a general northwesterly flow over the area.
convective showers and thunderstorms have developed over the
mountainous terrain of northern AZ. Moisture and instability
remain greatest south of the Mogollon Rim in Yavapai/Gila
Counties where southward propagating outflow boundaries may
trigger additional thunderstorms this evening. There is enough
instability in this area to support a few strong to severe storms
producing damaging winds and large hail. Locally heavy rain
causing flash flooding is also possible. The chance for showers
will continue overnight.

This weekend will continue to see an active monsoon pattern with
good chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. As moisture
continues to increase across the area, the threat for heavy rain
and flooding will increase.

A favorable monsoonal pattern continues next week as mid level
high pressure eventually sets up east of Arizona allowing a deep
southerly flow to develop. Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue and this may elevate the threat for
flooding as soils begin to saturate. The increased showers/storms
this weekend and next week will keep temperatures slightly below
average.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING THROUGH THE GRAND CANYON AND SHOW LOW.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY. MOSTLY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...SCATTERED LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...McCollum


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff



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