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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281038
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
338 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...MONSOON MOISTURE THINS OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS A
DEEP...MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR EAST OVER NEW MEXICO WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY APPROACHING YUMA) EXPECTED TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AND THEN INTO NORTHWEST
AZ. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AN INCH
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND FAIRLY WEEK STEERING
FLOW...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ WITH THE
ADDED SUPPORT OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER MOISTURE GRADIENTS. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND THE YAVAPAI COUNTY
MTNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STORM
ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST AZ...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE REST OF THIS WEEK...DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
CAUSES THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD...CENTERING
OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM. EXPECT A GRADUAL THINNING OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WITH A LESS FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LEADING TO
A DOWNWARD TREND IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW GRADE MONSOON
PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE BY NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
RUN CLOSE TO AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCT-NRMS SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD
+TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GREATEST STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. MVFR VSBY
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ004>008-015-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF