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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241630
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS
RETURN AS A STRONG LATE SEASON STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE.
THE BULK OF THE STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA ON EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE TODAY AS FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LATE SEASON WINTER-LIKE STORM SYSTEM
IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS
ON THIS UNFOLDING EVENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /415 AM MST/...
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A VERY COLD
LATE SEASON STORM MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT FORECASTS ARE
FOR S-SW WINDS 20-30 MPH W/ GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND THE FASTEST SPEEDS
OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NAVAJO NATIONAL
MONUMENT TO FLAGSTAFF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE STRONGER WINDS EXPANDING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
NORTHWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

FRIDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MIDNIGHT...FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING THE STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THROUGH
ARIZONA DURING THIS PERIOD. WE ARE EXPECTING A STRONG AND VERY
ACTIVE COLD FRONT...WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH ALIGNED WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR/LIFTING ACTION FLOWING IN A RELATIVE SENSE WESTWARD OVER
THE COLD FRONT (CONTAINING MOST OF THE PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT) TIMING: MOVING INTO WESTERN AZ
AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING...PAGE TO PAYSON LINE AROUND NOON
SATURDAY...AND REACHING THE NEW MEXICO/AZ LINE BY 6 PM MST SAT.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 5000-6000 FEET BEHIND THE
FRONT. WHILE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SNOW DOWN TO THIS
LEVEL ...THE MODELS SUGGEST WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES. AS PRECIP
INTENSITY PICKS UP WE EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION LEVEL TO FLUCTUATE
DOWNWARD TO THE LEVELS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT WHEN THE PRECIP
INTENSITY DECREASES RAPID MELTING WILL OCCUR. THE BEST TIME FOR
ACCUMULATION WILL BE FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO AROUND NOON ON
SATURDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE...HOWEVER WARM
GROUND SHOULD REDUCE ACCUMULATIONS AS BREAKS OCCUR IN THE CLOUD
COVER BEHIND THE FRONT. FALLING SNOW WILL AFFECT HIGHWAY TRAVEL
SATURDAY ABOVE 6000-6500 FEET DUE TO LOW VISIBILITIES AND
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD. CHECK FUTURE FORECASTS FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT 4-10 INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET
POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET
AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM SHOULD SEE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
.30-.65 OF AN INCH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND VERY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES
SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS FORECASTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

SUNDAY....LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY. STRONG NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST
AFTERNOON WINDS ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE THE WINDS WILL
BE THE STRONGEST.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING
TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER OCCASIONAL
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS BCMG SW10-15G20-25KT FROM 18-02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...A WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARIZONA REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY....BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
AZZ105-109>114-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF