Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 132248

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
348 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A series of weather disturbances will brush northern
Arizona over the coming days. A cold front moving through Thursday
will bring breezy and colder weather. For Friday, temperatures
will warm some before yet another cold front ushers in windy and
colder weather later on Saturday through Monday.


.DISCUSSION...A trough of low pressure will move across the
western US Thursday bringing a dry cold frontal boundary across
northern Arizona. This frontal boundary passage will bring a
return of gusty northeast winds. Winds will remain gusty into
Thursday evening along and south of the Mogollon Rim. A few areas
could see some advisory level gusts briefly. High temperatures
will cool to near or slightly above normal for Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...By Friday, calmer winds and weather return
as a ridge of high pressure builds back across the area into
Saturday. Temperatures will cool slightly into Saturday hovering
around 5-10 degrees above normal for most areas. By Sunday, a
deeper trough of low pressure will move south over the area with
the passage of another cold frontal boundary and a return of
breezy conditions. Temperatures will cool noticeably to around or
slightly below normal values for Sunday.

Model trends have been to indicate the increased possibility of
precipitation across southern Coconino, Apache, and Navajo
counties on Sunday. As a result, increased POPs to include slight
chance for showers and snow showers through the day Sunday.
Models are still somewhat inconsistent on amounts at this point so
we will continue to watch this in the coming days.

Monday through Thursday...After the passage of the Sunday system,
a return to more benign weather as ridging builds back in from
the west. This will bring a gradual warm up to above normal
temperatures around 10 degrees above normal by Wednesday.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions with clear to
partly cloudy skies through 12Z. A fast moving storm will brush the
Four Corners area during the day Thursday. Low CIGS are possible
east of a KPGA-KPAN line 12-00Z. SFC winds variable to 10 knots
through 12Z...then becoming northeast and increasing. Winds along
and south of the Mogollon Rim/White Mountains could become NE
15G25KT or higher. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...A cold front will sweep southward through northern
Arizona on Thursday. Strong northeast winds will develop Thursday
afternoon and continue overnight across areas along and south of the
Mogollon Rim. Northeast winds are expected to diminish on Friday.

Saturday through Monday... Another dry front will move through from
north to south over the weekend. Cooler temperatures are possible,
especially across northeast Arizona. A few showers are possible
south and east of Clints Well. Clear weather should return on






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