Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 010157
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
857 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE DIMINISHED WITH THE
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. MEANWHILE...A COMBINATION OF SEABREEZE
AND OUTFLOW HAS HELPED CREATE SOME PARTICULARLY BACKED WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...BUT FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS WE HEAD
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT TRENDS...OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE. S/SE WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 10KT. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF MVFR CIGS AT WACO DURING THE
EARLY-MID MORNING HOURS. THIS PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION
WITH BETTER CHANCES JUST EAST OF THE TAF SITE.


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/
MLCAPE VALUES HAVE SOARED TO AROUND 1500J/KG IN MANY AREAS SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. DESPITE THIS INSTABILITY BEING UNCAPPED...
THE CU FIELD APPEARS TO BE WAITING FOR A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BEFORE MIDDAY...BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINED SOUTH OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN
INSUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FARTHER NORTH. AS
IS TYPICAL IN AUGUST...INITIATION COULD BEGIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS AS LATE AS 6 PM CDT. WILL MAINTAIN LOW-END
POPS INTO THE MID-EVENING WHERE THE RICHEST MOISTURE RESIDES
BENEATH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING. WITH WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED TIME
BETWEEN POTENTIAL INITIATION AND SUNSET...ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
ANY SEVERE WEATHER...DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS.

WITHOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...THE TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. IN THE MEANTIME...A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL MEAN NON-ZERO THOUGH NEGLIGIBLE RAIN
CHANCES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ACTIVITY MAY INTERACT WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH WE WILL MAINTAIN 10 POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY)...EXPECT
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TAKING HOLD...AND WILL CARRY NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE WORDED FORECAST. CONSENSUS AMONG EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IS FOR RIDGING TO PERSIST NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE SUMMER
HEAT IN PLACE.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  95  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              73  94  72  94  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             70  93  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            73  95  72  94  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          72  94  71  93  72 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            76  94  75  94  76 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           72  93  72  94  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  93  72  94  72 /  10  20  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            71  93  71  93  71 /  10  20  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  95  71  94  72 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.