Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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565
FXUS64 KFWD 110043 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
643 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.AVIATION...
Ceilings gradually lowered Saturday afternoon and finally fell
into the MVFR category during the hour or so before TAF issuance.
Expect ceilings to continue to lower throughout the night. With a
low- level jet of 40-50 kts expected overnight ceilings should
fall into the IFR category in the Waco area by 06z and some
fog/drizzle is also likely. Ceilings should improve to the MVFR
category 13-15Z and as deeper mixing occurs, expect VFR conditions
by 20z Sunday.

For the Metroplex TAF sites, lower end MVFR ceilings are expected
around 06z and IFR conditions are possible 09-13z with some patchy
fog/drizzle. Southerly winds around 15 knots tonight, will
increase to near 20 knots by 17z Sunday with gusts up to 30 knots
possible 17-22z. Ceilings should improve to VFR by 20z as winds
become south southwest at the the surface and southwesterly just
above the surface. Wind speeds will start to decrease to around
15 knots before sunset. Winds will then shift west by 03z Monday
and to the north around 06z Monday as a cold front approaches and
then moves through the Metroplex.




58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

Clouds linger across most of North Texas this afternoon with the
exception of our far northwest counties where things have cleared
out. This clearing will be short lived though as clouds and
moisture will continue to surge northward through tonight. Where
the sun is shining...temperatures have warmed into the upper 50s
with most other locations in the upper 40s and lower 50s. The
increase in southerly winds is in response to falling surface
pressures in the lee of the Rockies ahead of an upper disturbance.
This system will eventually drag a cold front through North Texas
on Monday. Until then...it will be quite breezy.

For tonight...skies will remain cloudy. Areas off to the northwest
that cleared out this afternoon will again become cloudy tonight.
Ceilings are expected to lower through the night as strong
moisture advection continues. Temperatures will likely fall little
through the overnight...remaining steady or even rising in a few
spots with the strong southerly winds. As the lower atmosphere
becomes increasingly moist...areas of drizzle or light rain are
expected to develop by late tonight. Areas along and east of I-35
will have the best chance for steadier rain or showers into early
Sunday but areas of drizzle may extend well west of I-35 through
the morning hours.  While low level isentropic ascent will be
quite strong tonight...southwest winds above the surface will help
keep a strong cap in place across the region. This will keep all
of the moisture below 850mb and result in mainly drizzle and rain.
No thunderstorms are expected in our area.

On Sunday...the best lift will shift off to the northeast by
midday and winds aloft will become more westerly. This should
allow for some clearing during the afternoon hours and will
confine any lingering precipitation chances to our far eastern
counties. In addition...as deeper mixing commences later in the
morning...strong winds just off the surface may tend to mix down
resulting in some strong wind gusts. Occasional wind gusts to
35 kt are expected. Evening/overnight shift can assess the
potential for a wind advisory if it appears that winds will be
stronger than currently forecast. Other than the gusty
winds...temperatures will respond nicely into the lower/mid 70s by
afternoon.

As we get into next week...forecast uncertainty begins to
increase. A cold front will move through the region Sunday night
into early Monday morning although it won`t be significantly
colder. Highs on Monday will drop back into the low to mid 60s
areawide with north winds. Limited upper forcing for ascent should
inhibit and precipitation during the frontal passage.

The next system looks like it will move into the area on Wednesday
with another cold front moving through North Texas. This front
will bring some colder air although it now appears that the
coldest air will remain well to the north and east of our area.
The frontal slope will be shallow into Wednesday night and early
Thursday which means southerly winds will prevail atop the cooler
air. This will likely result in extensive cloud cover and perhaps
some bouts with drizzle or light rain. For now...will leave the
forecast dry for Wednesday and Wednesday night...but will increase
rain chances for Thursday as strong low level warm advection
appears to spread over the region. Highs on Thursday are expected
to be in the 40s across most of the area with 50s across the
southern counties.

A much stronger system digs into the western U.S. on Friday. This
will again allow for strong southerly winds across North Texas and
will temperatures will respond upward. After a cool start to the
day...highs are expected to warm into the mid/upper 60s and
possibly back into the 70s. Extensive cloud cover is expected with
additional chances for some light rain.

The much stronger cold front now appears that it will arrive
sometime over the weekend...likely late in the day on Saturday.
This will be another surge of arctic air with temperatures
possibly falling back into the upper 30s for highs on Sunday.
Obviously the finer details of next weekend`s forecast will be
worked out over the coming days.

Dunn

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    48  73  46  60  44 /  10   5   0   0   0
Waco                49  71  49  63  47 /  20  10   0   0   0
Paris               43  64  47  55  43 /  20  20  10   5   0
Denton              46  71  42  58  39 /  10   5   0   0   0
McKinney            46  68  45  58  41 /  10  10   0   0   0
Dallas              48  72  47  60  46 /  10  10   0   0   0
Terrell             47  68  48  60  44 /  20  20   5   0   0
Corsicana           48  71  51  63  49 /  20  20   5   5   0
Temple              49  69  50  65  49 /  20  10   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       47  73  41  60  40 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/30



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