Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 290414
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1114 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WE WILL
INTRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF
AROUND 10Z MONDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
8 AND 13 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID MORNING SUNDAY AS VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ENSUES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 14 AND 18 KNOTS
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE
BY SUNSET SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RED RIVER AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEAKENS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...GIVING THEM A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BUT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT THAN WE
HAD LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS
ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN TO NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF US 287 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  84  59  74  63 /   0   5  30  20  20
WACO, TX              54  85  61  76  62 /   0   5  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             48  78  56  71  58 /   0   5  40  30  30
DENTON, TX            54  83  57  73  61 /   0   5  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          53  81  58  72  62 /   0   5  30  30  30
DALLAS, TX            55  83  60  74  63 /   0   5  30  30  20
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  73  61 /   0   5  30  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         55  82  61  75  61 /   0   5  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            52  84  61  76  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  88  58  76  62 /   0   5  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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