Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 242122
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
322 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A band of dense high cloud cover associated with the right
entrance region of a 140kt jet is likely saving DFW from its 4th
daily record high since November. Meanwhile mostly sunny skies
prevail at Waco, but the record high of 83 looks just out of reach
as winds stay more southerly ahead of a dryline. The dryline will
approach the I-35 corridor late this afternoon before retreating
westward this evening. Winds behind the dryline have diminished
remarkably, which should limit the wildfire threat.

The unseasonably warm temperatures will come to an end as a cold
front quietly sweeps through North and Central Texas late
tonight. In its wake winds will become northwesterly with modest
cold advection prevailing during the day Wednesday. Temperatures
will be cooler tomorrow, but the coldest air will take some time
to filter into the region. Highs will be coolest in the northwest
zones where just mid 50s are expected, but some mid to upper 60s
are still forecast across the south and southeast zones. The high
clouds over North Texas this evening will gradually shift
southward during the overnight and morning hours, and finally
clear the region by sunset Wednesday. Winds will slacken by
sunrise Thursday morning and allow temps to drop into the upper
20s to mid 30s across the region.

The medium range guidance is all in good agreement that the
synoptic pattern will favor dry and tranquil weather over the
region for several days. Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail,
which will promote generally clear skies with periodic weak
reinforcing cold fronts. These fronts will serve to keep
temperatures near seasonal normals through the weekend. Highs
will generally be in the mid to upper 50s with lows in the mid 20s
to mid 30s. There will be a slight warming trend early next week
as southerly flow returns ahead of an upper low moving east out of
Mexico. This low may track too far south and be starved for
moisture for rain across North and Central Texas. Will keep the
forecast dry and continue to monitor for possible inclusion of low
PoPs across the south next Tuesday.

The extended period of dry and clear weather should serve to dry
out fine fuels, but wind speeds will remain low and limit the
wildfire threat.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1200 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

Concerns...Breezy winds will affect all DFW metroplex sites and
ACT.

For DFW Metroplex Sites:

Main concern this TAF period will be the gusty southerly winds
around 16 kts with gusts up to around 20-24 kts. The gusty winds
are attributed to the strengthening 40+ LLJ mixing down some
energy to the surface. As the LLJ max moves east, expect to see
winds diminish before a cold front moves through around 07Z
Wednesday. Winds will veer E-NE with VFR continuing through this
TAF cycle.

For Waco:

Breezy southerly winds will continue this afternoon diminishing to
around 5 kts ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front is
expected to move in around 07Z with NE winds below 10 kts. Did
remove MVFR mention from TAF as it seems the main axis of moisture
will be just to the east of ACT. Trends will have to be monitored
in case of a westward shift in the moisture.

Hernandez


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    45  59  33  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                47  65  31  56  31 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               45  57  31  50  30 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              42  56  28  52  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            44  57  30  52  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              46  60  35  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             46  61  33  54  32 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           48  65  35  55  34 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              49  66  33  57  33 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       41  58  28  54  29 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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