Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 290720
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY
BUT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EAST COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST IT WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD REACH NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY BUT THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL NOT BE NOTICABLE UNTIL FRIDAY.
THE FRONT SHOULD BRING ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FROM EAST TO
WEST FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS OVERALL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST WILL REACH 105 IN A FEW SPOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WE WILL LEAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE
FOR GRAYSON...FANNIN...LAMAR AND DELTA COUNTIES. WE WILL LET THE
DAY SHIFT ASSESS WHETHER THE ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED ON
THURSDAY...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW
105.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING BACK
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT WACO AROUND 13Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY MVFR STRATUS
WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

STALLEY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  80 100  81  98 /   5   5  10  20  30
WACO, TX              99  75 100  75  99 /   0   5  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             99  76  98  75  97 /   5   5  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            99  75 100  73  96 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          99  75 101  76  96 /   5   5  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            99  81 100  80  97 /   5   5  10  20  30
TERRELL, TX          101  76 101  76  97 /   5   5  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         99  77 101  78  99 /   5   5  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            99  75  98  74 100 /   0   5  10  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  73  99  75  98 /   5   5  10  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ093>095-106.


&&

$$

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