Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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373
FXUS64 KFWD 060506 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1106 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

WE CONTINUE TO TRACK AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
PRODUCING A SWATH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WEAK ENHANCEMENT
ON RADAR. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME AT 6-7 KFT...SO MOST OBS UNDERNEATH THESE RETURNS HAVE
ONLY INDICATED AN HOUR OR TWO OF SPRINKLES OR -RA AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO I-35 AT 06Z. BETTER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AIRPORTS BEFORE SUNRISE.

A FINE LINE ON AREA NETWORK RADARS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING FASTER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTS BY AT LEAST 2-3 HRS...
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACKING ESE NEAR WICHITA
FALLS. I HAVE SPED THE COLD FRONT UP WITH THIS IN MIND AND NOW
HAVE WNW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS OCCURRING ACROSS DFW METRO AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 08Z- 10Z. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ESE ACROSS THE AREA...
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THE FRONTAL INVERSION SHOULD
DEEPEN AND SATURATE WITH WINDS VEERING MORE NORTHERLY. IN
ADDITION... THERE ARE SIGNS SOME SATURATION ON THE FRONTAL
INVERSION OCCURS BY MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING
PAST MIDDAY. NNW WINDS FALL BELOW 10 KTS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AS WELL AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

AT WACO...EXPECT ABOUT A 3-4 HR DELAY ON FROPA COMPARED TO DFW
AIRPORTS WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT INITIALLY. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL MID-LATE MORNING SATURDAY. THEY TOO
WILL SEE BRISK NORTH W/NW WINDS LATER SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS IT
DOES...A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS QUITE DRY. DESPITE SOUTHERLY WINDS
TODAY DEW POINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SO WE SHOULD STILL MANAGE
TO GET SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
LATE THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH...BUT SOME 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND I-45. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO LOUISANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY MAINLY EAST OF
I-35 SATURDAY MORNING...AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THOSE AREAS
IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT
FOR A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH THAT BUILT IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

AIDED BY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
30S. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH MONDAY WITH
SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  38  54  37  62  37 /  30  10   0   0   0
WACO, TX              36  54  32  63  35 /  30   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             34  52  33  59  34 /  40  30   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            34  53  33  62  34 /  30  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          36  52  33  60  35 /  50  20   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            39  54  37  62  38 /  40  10   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  52  33  61  35 /  50  30   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         38  52  35  63  36 /  40  20   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            36  57  32  65  36 /  30   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     34  55  32  63  33 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/58



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