Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 102336
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
636 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...RESULTING IN A DRY
FORECAST FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. SCT HIGH CIRRUS WILL LIKELY BE
THE ONLY VISUAL SIGNS OF MOISTURE. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND
EXHIBIT THE TYPICAL REDUCED WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY.

AJS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/
SO FAR THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA HALTED BEFORE
REACHING THE RED RIVER AND ITS REMNANTS CAN BE SEEN ON REGIONAL
RADARS MOVING BACK NORTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE MORNING CONVECTION
THAT WAS MOVING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS DISSIPATED WITH
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS JUST OUTSIDE LEON AND ANDERSON COUNTIES. WHILE
A STRAY SHOWER MAY OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH 7
PM...EXPECT THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
ARE LIKELY OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE REGION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. A
FEW OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME SEA BREEZE TYPE ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.
HOWEVER...WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENING...AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S AND AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN URBAN AREAS OF THE DFW
METROPLEX. HOWEVER...DRASTIC CHANGES ARE EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT AND RAIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
BACK WEST STARTING SUNDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG JULY COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY....ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS....BROADENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR
REGION IS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK AND PROLONGED RAIN CHANCES. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO PIN POINT EXACTLY WHICH AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN EACH DAY...SO WILL BROAD BRUSH 20-30 POPS FOR NOW AND HONE
THE FINE DETAILS OF WHERE AND WHEN THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE COMMON.

82/JLD

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  98  78 100  79 /  10  10  10   5   5
WACO, TX              73  96  74  98  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             74  95  75  98  75 /  10  10  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            76  98  76  99  78 /  10  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  97  77  99  77 /  10  10  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            79  99  79 100  79 /  10  10  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           78  98  75 100  78 /  10  10  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         73  96  75  97  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            71  96  73  97  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  98  74 100  77 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.