Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 142205
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
405 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY DAYTIME)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

MOST SHORT TERM MODELS ARE PAINTING A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER
THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CWA WITH THE WAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT.
PUT MEASURABLE POPS OF 20/30 PERCENT BACK IN. I SUSPECT THAT WE
COULD HAVE A SITUATION WHERE MOST AREAS MEASURE ONE OR TWO
HUNDREDTHS...SO TECHNICALLY POPS MAY EVEN BE UNDERDONE HERE. ALL
MODELS PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS FAR ENOUGH EAST/SOUTHEAST THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD ESSENTIALLY WRAP UP BY 09Z. FOR PRECIP
TYPE...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD GET RAIN OR SNOW...BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD
NOT SHOW MUCH APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE
MUCH LOWER THAN FREEZING. WENT WITH CONSRAW FOR LOWS AS WE SHOULD
BE MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE. WENT CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS...WHICH WARMS US UP INTO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 60S IN OUR
SOUTHWEST. I PREFER THIS SOLUTION...CONSIDERING HOW MOSGUIDANCE
DID WITH THE SIMILAR DAY-2 FORECAST FOR RECENT ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

ON THIS LOVE-THEMED DAY...THE BIGGEST FORECAST MESSAGE FOR THIS
6-DAY PERIOD IS THAT THOSE FOLKS WHO LOVE MILD WEATHER (AT LEAST
BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS) SHOULD TRULY ENJOY WHAT`S COMING UP...

TEMPS: ALTHOUGH NOT "BLAZING HEAT" BY ANY MEANS...EACH AND EVERY
DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
(NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY ARE IN THE LOW-MID 40S).
OVERALL...ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE PEAK
OF THE WARMTH STILL EXPECTED TO FOCUS BETWEEN WED-SAT AND
ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. THE OUTRIGHT-WARMEST DAY STILL LOOKS TO BE
THURSDAY...AND ALTHOUGH NUDGED DOWN THURS HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL KEPT THEM 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE THE DEFAULT
MODEL BLEND USED TO INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 FORECAST...THUS AIMING
FOR A RANGE FROM LOW-MID 60S FAR NORTHEAST TO LOW-MID 70S FAR
SOUTHWEST. FOR OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS SITES (GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS)...THE CURRENT THURS FORECAST IS STILL
5-7 DEGREES SHY OF FEB. 18TH RECORDS.

PRECIP: AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...THE ONLY OFFICIAL MENTION OF
PRECIP DURING THIS ENTIRE 6 DAYS IS STILL RIGHT AWAY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...AND YES IT`S IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN (YES NOT
SNOW, NOT A TYPO). BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY. THAT BEING SAID...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
CERTAINLY NO "MAJOR" STORM SYSTEMS IN SIGHT...DO NOT BE SHOCKED IF
FUTURE FORECASTS INTRODUCE AT LEAST SMALL PRECIP CHANCES DURING
THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS THE EXPANSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT.

BEFORE MOVING ON TO TO SOME DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...WANT TO ECHO
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT WE WILL NEED TO AT LEAST KEEP A WARY EYE
ON FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS TEMPS PEAK THURS-FRI...ALTHOUGH THE
CONTINUED SNOW MELT/MOIST GROUND MAY GREATLY LIMIT FIRE DANGER
(SEE SEPARATE "FIRE WEATHER" SECTION BELOW FORE MORE DETAILS).

MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT: AS ALREADY STATED...THIS IS THE ONLY
OFFICIAL PRECIP/RAIN CHANCE IN OUR LONG TERM PERIODS...AND IT
STILL DOESN`T LOOK OVERLY-IMPRESSIVE PER MOST MODELS. IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS...FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY...WITH THE CULPRIT BEING
A FAIRLY STRONG CLIPPER-SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
EASTERN MT AREA INTO THE NEB/IA/MO BORDER AREA OVER THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT. WITH OUR LOCAL AREA REMAINING JUST WEST/SOUTHWEST OF
THE TRACK OF THIS WAVE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP SHOULD
ACCORDINGLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY TO OUR EAST-NORTHEAST. THAT BEING
SAID...EVEN AT THIS FAIRLY CLOSE TIME RANGE MODELS VARY QUITE A
BIT...WITH THE LATEST NAM AND 4KM WRF NMM/ARW MODELS ESSENTIALLY
KEEPING THE ENTIRE CWA BONE-DRY...WHILE THE GFS AT LEAST BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA WITH SOME SPRINKLES/BRIEF LIGHT
SHOWERS...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS A SWATH OF
STEADIER LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA. HAVE CONTINUED
LEANING TOWARD THE FORMER SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WITH ONLY A LOW
20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN IN NORTHEAST
ZONES...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NON-MEASURABLE SPRINKLES
SOUTHWEST...MOST OF WHICH SHOULD FALL BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT.
NO MATTER WHAT...TEMPS BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SUPPORT
PRECIP TYPE AS RAIN. WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
IN BREEZES TURNING WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING TO AT LEAST 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE COMBO OF THESE WINDS AND ALSO CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP QUITE A BIT...AND KEPT LOWS UP IN THE 33-37 RANGE MOST
AREAS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ANY RAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE LONG
GONE BY SUNRISE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES...THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG DISTURBANCES AS MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD/LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...STEADY
NORTHWEST BREEZES IN THE MORNING WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY TUES NIGHT.
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND MONDAY NIGHT`S
FRONT...GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN MONDAY. ACTUALLY LOWERED HIGHS 2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM LOW-MID 40S NORTHEAST TO LOW-
MID 50S SOUTHWEST. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE HINTS OF POSSIBLE FOG
DEVELOPMENT TUES NIGHT MAINLY IN NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME RANGE TO JUSTIFY A FORECAST
MENTION...ESPECIALLY WITH MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM CONTINUING TO
GROSSLY OVER-DO NEAR-SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DUE TO ITS
MODELED SNOW COVER SCHEME.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A DRY AND MODESTLY
WARMER 24 HOURS HERE...AS THE CREST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE-
SCALE RIDGE OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE
A WARMER DAY IF NOT FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY LIGHT AND
POSSIBLY EASTERLY WIND REGIME DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN
SO...EXPECT IT TO BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS 50S MOST
AREAS...BUT 40S FAR NORTHEAST AND 60S FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A
QUICK-MOVING BUT FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE GENERAL NEB/SD REGION. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN THE OVERALL-WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS COULD
TEMPER THE WARMING POTENTIAL A BIT...AND AS EARLIER
MENTIONED...DID SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT
STILL PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE 60S WITH LOW-MID 70S
SOUTH. WHILE THE DAY SHOULD CERTAINLY REMAIN DRY...OUR NORTHERN
ZONES MAY HAVE A CLOSE CALL WITH GETTING SCRAPED BY A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. SPEAKING OF THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR A NEAR-RECORD WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: THIS LOOKS LIKE THE OVERALL-WINDIEST DAY OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 15-25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH TEMPS SHOULD BE
A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY...STILL HAVE HIGHS AIMED INTO THE LOW-
MID 60S.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY DAYTIME: THESE LAST 3 PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST REMAIN DRY FOR NOW...BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING AS BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT (ESPECIALLY FOR THIS FAR
OUT) SHOWING A BROAD TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM
THE NORTHWEST...LIKELY PROMOTING AT LEAST SOME SPOTTY PRECIP NEAR
THE CWA...IF NOT IN IT. WOULD NOT EVEN BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GENERAL REGION...ESPECIALLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE
WARMER WEEKEND DAY WITH HIGHS STILL WELL INTO THE 50S TO
NEAR-60...WITH A MODEST-COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL HIGHS
NEAR-50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT A QUICK-MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND COULD GIVE US SOME BRIEF SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

REGARDING POSSIBLE (NOT A SURE THING) FIRE WEATHER ISSUES FOR THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME...STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND PLENTY
CAN STILL CHANGE BUT PROBABLY WORTH A "HEADS UP" MENTION:

AS TOUCHED ON BY THE PREVIOUS NIGHT SHIFT FORECASTER...WE ARE AT
LEAST GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP A WARY EYE ON POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER/FIRE DANGER ISSUES LATER IN THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM
AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES FALL. FOCUSING SOLELY
ON THE METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS OF RH AND WIND SPEEDS: EVEN
THOUGH THURSDAY IS STILL FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK IT CURRENTLY SEEMS THAT DEWPOINTS/RH MAY STAY HIGH
ENOUGH/WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MAJOR ISSUES HERE. ON THE
OTHER HAND...FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS A BIT MORE CONCERNING AS EVEN
THOUGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER...DEWPOINTS/RH ARE LIKELY TO
BE LOWER AND WINDS STRONGER (GUSTS AT LEAST 20-30 MPH) BEHIND A
PASSING FRONT.

ALL THIS BEING SAID...THERE IS ONE GLARING CAVEAT HERE:

1) VEGETATIVE FUELS: WITH WIDESPREAD CONTINUED SNOW MELT ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE NEBRASKA CWA THIS WEEK...GRASSES/SOILS MAY
VERY WELL REMAIN TOO MOIST TO EVEN SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FIRE GROWTH
DESPITE FAVORABLE WINDS/RH. THUS...ANY ENHANCED FIRE DANGER MAY
ULTIMATELY FOCUS MORE ON OUR KS ZONES WHERE SNOW COVER IS
CURRENTLY MINIMAL-AT-BEST AND WHERE RH VALUES WOULD LIKELY DROP
LOWER ANYWAY. ULTIMATELY...IF DAYS SUCH AS FRIDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES...WE WILL BE CONSULTING
WITH AREA FIRE/LAND MANAGERS TO HELP DETERMINE IF FUELS ARE
ACTUALLY DRY ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANY POSSIBLE WATCHES/WARNINGS. IN
THE MEANTIME...GIVEN THAT ANY POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
STILL AT LEAST 4-5 DAYS AWAY...WILL HOLD OFF AN INTRODUCING ANY
MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID) FOR NOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH


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