Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 191113

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
513 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

The forecast features dry and quiet through the next seven days. The
pattern aloft depicts northwest flow across the Central Plains with
weak upper ridging along the west coast and Rockies. At the surface,
high pressure was located in the southern plains and in a dry
airmass, early morning temperatures were rather chilly in the 20s.

After the cold start this morning, temperatures are expected to
rebound nicely this afternoon in rising heights/warm air advection.
Highs today should range from the mid 50s to low 60s, which are
above what we normally see this time of year when highs average in
the upper 40s. Near critical fire weather conditions are possible
for portions of north central Kansas and this is discussed below in
the fire weather section.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

As we head through the upcoming week including the Thanksgiving
holiday, the dry weather pattern continues with temperatures
favoring more warm than cold days. A cold front will cool things
down nearer to seasonal readings for Tuesday, then the airmass
recovers as an upper ridge axis and warm air expand east of the
Rockies for the middle and latter part of the week. Thanksgiving Day
continues to look mild/warm with highs in the 55 to 65 degree range,
and the dry/mild weather this week and into the weekend should be
favorable for holiday travelers.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Monday)
Issued at 507 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

No weather impacts expected at the TAF sites today as high
pressure is over the area. Southwest winds will be around 5kts
this morning and will increase to around 10kts by late morning.


Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Near critical fire weather conditions are still expected today
across portions of north central Kansas. In the dry airmass, low
relative humidity values will drop around 20 percent and wind gusts
in the 20 to 25 mph range are possible across Rooks, Osborne and
Mitchell Counties and will maintain mention in the HWO.

On Monday, low relative humidities in the low 20th percentile are
forecast again in the dry airmass across the western third of our
cwa, however winds are not expected to be overly strong. With a few
gusts near 20 mph possible across our far western zones have kept
mention of near critical fire weather for locations west of Highway
183, but it looks low end at this time.




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