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000
FXUS64 KHUN 011127 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
WENT WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

LARGE UPPER TROF STILL DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE US. ACROSS THE CWA
TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH LOW 60 DEWPOINTS UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WILL MONITOR IN CASE FOG WOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE. ATTM DONT THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE.

IR STLT SHOWS A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER NRN MS THAT COULD PRODUCE
SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY. MODELS ARE NOT
SHOWING A LOT OF PCPN TODAY THUS WILL KEEP POPS ARND 30 PERCENT. FOR
TONIGHT DONT SEE ANY REAL GOOD TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN BUT WITH
THE UPPER TROF IN PLACE CAN RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT 30 POP.

SATURDAY...STILL NOT SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HOWEVER
UPPER DISTURBANCES NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS MAY AFFECT THE TN VALLEY
BY SATURDAY MRNG WITH A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. DONT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE WITH MODELS HANDLING THE PCPN CHC/TIMING ON SATURDAY. THUS
WILL LEAVE 50 POPS WHICH IS WHAT THE NAM IS HINTING AT.

SUNDAY...UPPER TROF WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN US BUT
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A WEAK CDFNT/BOUNDARY WITH NE LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT
SHOULD BRING A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
PCPN. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THE MRNG/AFTN AND DRY FOR THE NIGHT.

MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...ECMWF PRETTY MUCH KEEPS IT DRY ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...PROBABLY DUE TO WHAT`S LEFT OF BERTHA AS IT HUGS THE EAST
COAST PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE TN VALLEY. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE
BULLISH WITH A CHC OF PCPN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH ECMWF AND NOT
MENTION ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...MODELS HINT AT A POSSIBLE CDFNT APPROACHING THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY GFS. THUS WILL KEEP A LOW POP IN FOR NOW.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY TOMORROW, ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW, WILL INTRODUCE VICINITY
THUNDER TOMORROW AFTER 11Z, BUT THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL MID-MORNING SATURDAY, LINGERING THRU THE AFTN HRS.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.