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000
FXUS64 KHUN 151511 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1011 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR SKY COVER, THUNDERSTORM FORECAST, AND TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST IMPACTS FOR TODAY MAINLY COMPRISE A TRANSITION FROM WARM
AND DRY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, TO
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER TX. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SPREADING HIGH
CS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD MITIGATE DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY
DESPITE ANTECEDENT WAA IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
INVERTED V DEWPOINT/TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT BTWN THE SFC AND 850 MB
AND A NOTICEABLE CAP AT 750 MB. IN ADDITION, RAP/NAM MODEL OUTPUT
INDICATE A SUBTLE 400-750 MB SHEAR AXIS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF COAST. THIS MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO OVERCOME THE CAP OVER
THE SW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK,
SATURATION IN THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONES, WEAK INSTABILITY, AND ENOUGH
LIFT TO OVERCOME THE CAP COULD MEAN ISOLATED PULSE-LIKE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. SO, HAVE RETAINED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST MAINLY FOR NW AL AND CULLMAN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. DID
ADJUST THE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS TO LATE AFTERNOON (21-00Z) WITH
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND TIMING OF SHEAR AXIS CROSSING THE TN VALLEY.
THE PRIMARY THREAT IS GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
LIFT (WARM FRONT AND MID-LEVEL PVA) IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
OZARKS.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
ACCOUNT FOR LOW CLOUDS (3.5-5.0 KFT) THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER TN.
ALSO, WITH LOW CLOUDS BUILDING NORTH FROM CENTRAL MS AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, HAVE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY ANTICIPATED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH SUNSET
TODAY, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE VICINITY ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW-END MVFR
CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY, WITH
CEILINGS ARND 1500FT AND VSBYS OF 3SM POSSIBLE. HEAVIER RAIN WILL
ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDS
EXPECTED (AND UPPER-END IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE). SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS TIME AS WELL.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.