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000
FXUS64 KHUN 052335 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
535 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013/
A COMPLEX AND ACTIVE WEATHER WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN. THE UPPER LEVELS WERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED AS TROUGHING CONTINUED TOWARD THE DESERT SW/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE PARENT LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
THE FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH WAS BRINGING A FEED OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE WELL ADVERTISED
ARCTIC FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT TO EAST OF MUSCLE SHOALS...MAKING
THE TEMPERATURE THERE FALL FROM A HIGH AROUND 77...NOW TO AROUND 60.
EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY...WITH READINGS NOW INTO
THE 40S AND 50S JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST. EAST OF THE FRONT...
HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. THE 79F
RECORD IN HUNTSVILLE WILL BE GIVEN A RUN...WITH 78F NOTED THERE SO
FAR. RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUED SCATTERED ACROSS THIS
REGION AS OF THE PRESENT. A THUNDERSTORM WAS TRACKING NNE ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA NORTH OF MONTGOMERY...WITH OTHER SHOWER
ACTIVITY HEADED ACROSS NW ALABAMA.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS TO THE
SE...REACHING THE HUNTSVILLE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING. PER OUTPUT
FROM THE NAM/SREF...THE FRONT WILL APPARENTLY BECOME STATIONARY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...CREATING A LARGE
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S IN NW ALABAMA...TO THE LOWER 60S AROUND FT PAYNE. THE
FRONT SHOULD RESUME ITS PROGRESS TO THE SE DURING FRI...LIKELY NOT
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION TILL FRI EVENING. BEFORE THEN...HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL EXHIBIT A MARKED RANGED...WITH UPPER 30S NW ALABAMA
TO UPPER 60S/ NEAR 70 NE ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY TUMBLE
INTO THE 30S ALL SPOTS FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
FINALLY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

PRECIPITATION WISE...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...AS STRONG UPGLIDING OF WARMER AIR ATOP OF COLDER AIR...AND
A PASSING DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HIGHER
FOR OUR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. MAX
TOTALS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING COULD RANGE UPWARDS OF 1-2 INCHES.
THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS FOR THE EVENING...AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN AS THE MOISTURE DIMINISHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT A MIX
POSSIBILITY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LOW WILL FALL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING NW
OF A FAYETTEVILLE TO THE BANKHEAD NATIONAL FOREST LINE. A LESSER
AMOUNT OF SUFFICIENT PRECIP WATER (AKA DRYING) SHOULD KEEP ANY
FROZEN PRECIP AMOUNTS LIGHT...MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SAT MORNING FOR A VERY
BRIEF SPELL.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT AND STRONG OVERRUNNING
WILL BRING A SECOND BOUT OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY THE EVENING. GIVEN A DRY SUBLAYER NEAR
THE SURFACE AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING...HAVE PUT IN A BRIEF MIX OF
SLEET ACCOMPANYING THE START OF THE RAIN. THE PRECIP SHOULD BECOME
ALL RAIN DURING SAT EVENING...AND BRING A SECOND BOUT OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS
WITH THE SECOND EPISODE COULD RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES WITH OF COURSE
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD PRODUCE A GRAND TOTAL...MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE VALLEY IN THE 3-5 RANGE. THE RUNOFF FROM THIS RAIN
COULD CAUSE RISES IN AREA RIVERS/STREAMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES. ALONG WITH THE RAIN...THE FRONT WILL
OSCILLATE ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
DURING THE RAINFALL EPISODE.

GIVEN THAT THIS AIRMASS IS ARCTIC...THE PRECIP WILL PROBABLY MIX
WITH SNOW...THEN END AS SNOW LATE MON. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE MIDDLE/LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF WAS
SHOWING YET A THIRD WAVE NEARING THE AREA FROM THE SW LATE NEXT
WEEK (WITH THE GFS ON THE DRY SIDE). HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING
RAIN CHANCES TILL BETTER AGREEMENT FROM THE EXTENDED MODELS IS
FORTHCOMING.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER N CENTRAL AL, VFR TO IFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL DUE TO RAINFALL, AND A LOWER CLOUD DECK PRECEDING AND
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED ALT REQUIRED TO IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TIME PERIOD DUE TO THE RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT. SOME OSCILLATIONS IN THE CIG AND
VIS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY REMAIN VARIABLE AT KHSV LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO THE FRONT STALLING IN THE VC OF KHSV. HOWEVER, NW TO NE
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KMSL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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