Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 312325 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 231 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW AND SHORT WAVE
FROM YESTERDAY HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER
80S AT 19Z. EXPECT LOW TO MID CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE
TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS BY 12Z
TUESDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ENOUGH CAPPING OCCURRING AS PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS TO BASICALLY KEEP THE MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA OUT OF THE
FORECAST. BY FRIDAY...THE ECMWF MODEL INDICATES THAT THERE SHOULD BE
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VIA TIME SECTIONS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

BY SATURDAY...THE GFS MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE ECMWF
MODEL...BOTH DEPICT THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTHWEST DOWN THE APPALACHIANS FROM VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE IN CHANCE POPS FROM NORTHEAST
ALABAMA...EXTENDING WESTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE INVERTED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEDGE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA BY
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCE POPS FORECAST AREA WIDE FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
VALUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC REMAINING
FAIRLY STAGNANT INTO TUE...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME BRIEF/TEMPO -BR/MVFR VIS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HRS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUE...AS MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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