Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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136
FXUS64 KHUN 110009
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
609 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 312 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
THE 21Z VISIBLE/IR AND RADAR IMAGERY ALL INDICATED THAT AN AREA OF
MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP ALOFT AND MAINLY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEST AND INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HAVE ADDED IN A CHANCE POP FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND AT LEAST INTO
JACKSON COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE FURTHER ADDED IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW POP EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM LIMESTONE-
MADISON AND INTO MARSHALL AND DEKALB COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ALABAMA FOR THIS EVENING. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREE RANGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP
INITIALLY REMAINING ALOFT...AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING.

THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS IN
THE WAKE OF THIS DRY COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AS MUCH AS 20 TO NEARLY
25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE GETTING MORE IN LINE INVOLVING THE
TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE INVOLVING THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. THE
UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A ZONAL TYPE BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING BY 00Z MONDAY. HAVE TRENDED MORE IN LINE
WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELS INVOLVING THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AND EXPECT A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW TO INITIALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MONDAY. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION BY MONDAY MORNING SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK CHANGE OVER
TO LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DUE TO THE CHANGING MODEL
TRENDS...THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS WE HEAD
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT INVOLVING BRINGING IN SOME COLD
ADVECTION BY MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
WINTRY MIX BETWEEN ESPECIALLY 06Z-12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE THE PRECIP
ENDS. THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY...WITH DRY AND MILDER AND MORE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...TRAILING EDGE OF VERY LGT PCPN BAND CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EWD INTO NE ALABAMA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH NO LINGERING THREAT
FOR SNOW FLURRIES/GRAUPEL PELLETS AT EITHER MSL/HSV. OVC ALTOSTRATUS
DECK BASED ARND 8 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD AS WELL...AND SHOULD
CLEAR THE HSV TERMINAL BY 11/06Z. SCT STRATOCU WILL BE PSBL OVERNIGHT
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY VEERS TO ESE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SFC
CYCLONE TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A REINFORCING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BACK TO NE AT BOTH
TERMINALS BY 18Z. COVERAGE OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE AFTN...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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