Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 231137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/
WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

AN UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SRN MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A
LARGE MCS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
WRN KY. TEMPS ARND THE TN VALLEY WERE IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS ARND 70. ALSO PATCHY FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS MRNG.

TEMPS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 90S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING
THE UPPER 90S. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MARGINAL TODAY BUT
SINCE IT IS THE WEEKEND AND THIS IS A FAIRLY LONG STRETCH OF MID 90S
TEMPS...WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW. ANYWAY YOU CUT IT...IT
WILL BE A HOT/HUMID DAY. WILL KEEP A LOW POP ACROSS OUR NERN ZONES
THIS AFTN/EVENING DUE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER KY MOVING SE ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

BY SUNDAY...WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DUE TO A BACKDOOR TYPE OF
CDFNT...SHOULD SEE A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
CWA. IF GFS IS CORRECT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MRNG. AS A DRIER/STABLE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...THE PCPN WILL TAPER OFF
BY THE AFTN. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DRY AND LESS HUMID WX CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL VALUES. ALSO GFS SHOWS A
POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST THAT SHOULD NOT
HAVE ANY AFFECT ON OUR WX ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. STAY TUNED.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...GFS SHOWS A CDFNT ENTERING NW AL BY THURSDAY AFTN
AND OUT OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTN. WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE CDFNT OVER
THE MIDWEST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IF GFS IS ON THE MONEY...NEXT
WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE NICE ONE...WITH NO PCPN AND TEMPS IN THE
80S/LOWS IN THE 60S. WE WILL SEE.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...ONCE MORNING MVFR FOG LIFTS AT KMSL...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BEST CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE KHSV AREA AND EAST BUT
ALSO INCLUDED IT IN THE KMSL TAF. FOG DOES NOT LOOK AS PROMINENT FOR
TOMORROW NIGHT SO LEFT IT OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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