Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 181947

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
247 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper level low over eastern
Minnesota, with the upper trough extending southward and through the
Central Plains. Across the local area, skies have become mostly
clear over the last couple of hours, as high pressure settles in at
the surface. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s and
dewpoints have remained around 70 degrees, leading to a rather warm
and muggy day. The upper trough will push eastward tonight, with its
axis swinging through the TN Valley early Saturday morning. Winds
will briefly shift to the southwest, filtering in moisture and
leading to overnight lows in the lower 70s. Despite the slightly
better moisture in place, do not anticipate much in the way of fog,
except perhaps in our valley locations.

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

The upper trough axis will move east of the forecast area by the
afternoon hours on Saturday. Despite the slight increase in
moisture, little in the way of forcing is expected and therefore do
not anticipate any showers and thunderstorms developing during the
day. Meanwhile, a cold front to our north will shift through the
area, bringing a reinforcing shot of drier air across the region.
Models are hinting at an MCS moving across the western section of
the forecast area late Saturday afternoon, however due to the dry
air in place, do not feel confident enough to add showers and
thunderstorms back into the forecast. By Sunday, the axis of an
upper level ridge will begin to build northward across the area,
with light flow keeping moisture advection limited. Thus, another
dry day is expected again on Sunday. Temperatures through the period
will generally be near seasonal norms. Skies are expected to remain
mostly clear and with slight height rises, highs will warm into the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Meanwhile, overnight lows will drop into the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

The extended will start off with the most anticipated forecast of
the week...for the eclipse. Eclipse viewers across our area should be
in good shape with mostly clear skies and isolated coverage of
diurnal showers and thunderstorms. A ridge building westward across
the Southeast on Monday will bring back southerly flow and keep temps
in the lower 90s. On Tuesday, with additional moisture and temps
still in the lower 90s, scattered coverage of diurnal shower/storms
are expected with a heat index around 100 degrees.

As a sfc low lifts into the Great Lakes Tuesday night/Wednesday, the
trailing cold front will make way into the TN Valley by Wednesday
night/Thursday. This will bring a greater coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across the area Wednesday/Wednesday night. Behind the
front, temps will be a few degrees lower in the upper 80s, but
looking more forward to the dewpoints dropping into the 60s!


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at the KMSL
and KHSV terminals. West-northwesterly winds may gust at times this
afternoon and then become light and variable after sunset. With drier
air filtering in across the region, visibility reductions are not
anticipated on Saturday morning. Skies will generally remain mostly
clear to partly cloud with cigs above 3000 feet.





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