Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 210145 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
845 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS...DEWPOINTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS EVENING...COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DID FIRE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION HAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART HAS FADED
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...A LONE SHOWER HAS
DEVELOPED EAST OF NASHVILLE TOWARDS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...IN
PART ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
EXTENDED ROUGHLY IN A NNE- SSW MANNER FROM WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. GIVEN A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT THIS AREA
AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN FORECAST PARAMETERS OVERALL WERE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO SOME OF THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE... DEWPOINT...CLOUD COVER GRIDS...WHICH WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT WITH THE ON-GOING FORECAST WORDING.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 638 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
NIGHT. WITH LONGER NIGHTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...THERE
IS A RISK OF MVFR FOG/MIST AFFECTING THE TERMINALS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUN AM. CLOUDS OTHERWISE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NW-SE DURING
SUN...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS
ISSUANCE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWER TIMING/PLACEMENT.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 209 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
WENT WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF AND NAM FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE A
SCT CU FIELD WAS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY ARND 60. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE NEXT WX MAKER IS A CDFNT NOW EXTENDING FROM NW KS THRU IA AND
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THIS CDFNT WILL BRING A CHC OF SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SINCE LOW
LEVEL FLOW/8H WINDS WILL BE NORTH...PCPN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. THE BEST TIMING OF PCPN WILL ARND 20Z TO
03Z. NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED BUT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HVY RAIN. AFTER 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP DRY AS THE CDFNT
PUSHES OUT OF THE TN VALLEY.

MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR FALL LIKE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MRNG LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S. SINCE GOING WITH ECMWF WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.
HOWEVER GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH PCPN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MRNG.

WILL KEEP PCPN AS SHRA ON SATURDAY...SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE
SHOWING LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH PCPN
ON SATURDAY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE TO BE MOVED BACK TO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF ECMWF PANS OUT.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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