Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 281117

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
617 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

For 12Z TAFs.


 (Issued 604 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016)
At 08z, skies were partly to mostly cloudy across the forecast area
with temps still in the low to mid 70s. A scattered and broken line
of mainly showers was extending southward from near Memphis Tennessee
to near Jackson Mississippi. In the short term today, the rap and
hrrr models are in similar agreement involving the development of
some scattered showers/few storms along an outflow boundary and weak
short wave moving through the region. Will continue with chance pops
area wide for today.

By this evening, the short wave is expected to move north out of
Tennessee and expect clearing skies by late evening. By Sunday, a
weak cold front is progged by the short term models to move through
the lower Ohio valley into the Tennessee valley and through the
forecast area by Sunday afternoon. Will maintain a slight chance pop
for the forecast area with this boundary in vicinity of the forecast
area during max heating. There will be little effects felt from this
boundary, other than maybe just a slight temp change lower by Monday
and slightly lower dewpoint temps.

Expect only a slight chance of diurnal showers/storms for Monday and
Tuesday as weak high pressure is expected to move through the lower
Ohio valley region. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, an upper level low
is progged by the ECMWF and GFS models to move through the upper
plains states to near the western Great Lakes region. As this occurs,
a surface cold front is expected to move southeast through the
midwest into the lower Ohio valley region by 12z Thursday. The longer
range models are in decent agreement involving increasing low level
moisture into the forecast area and expect a slow increase involving
pop chances by Wednesday and into Thursday. Have increased pops for
Thursday as the cold front should move through middle Tennessee to
close proximity to the forecast area by 00z Friday. The ECMWF and GFS
models are in agreement in moving the cold front slowly southeast
through the forecast area on Friday and into Saturday with higher
chance pops expected to round out the extended forecast period. Have
trended closer to the ECMWF guidance temps through much of the
forecast periods.



For 12Z TAFs: latest radar and observations indicate a region of
mainly DZ developing to our south. This will continue to stream north
into the region and likely become -SHRA later this morning. But due
to the lack of precip reaching the surface other than far southern
AL, have kept only VCSH in the TAF`s as not confident enough in the
activity to move over the terminals.

Later this morning into the early afternoon there is a slight chance
for thunderstorms to develop and move over the TN Valley. However,
these will be isolated in nature and not confident enough in the
timing to even include a VCTS in the TAFs at this time. Will watch
how stuff develops to our south and make amendments.

Otherwise, expecting CIGS to remain VFR with bases at or above
5000ft. Could see a brief drop to MVFR if TS develop.



.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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