402
FXUS64 KHUN 140747
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
247 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Nighttime microphysics RGB satellite is showing good fog
development in the valleys across NE AL where there is currently a
lack of cloud cover. This is reducing visibilities to 1 mile or
below at times. Adjusted grids to reflect current fog trends.
Elsewhere we are dealing with little batches of cloud cover,
dampening fog formation, and the dewpoint depression isn`t as
small out in NW AL, also reducing chances for fog. Regardless,
leave extra space between vehicles in case you do encounter fog
unexpectedly.

Fog will dissipate with sunrise and the rest of the day will feel
like a rinse and repeat of yesterday. High pressure will remain in
place and the expansive stalled front will remain  well to our
north, stretching across the Mid MS Valley and Ohio Valley. This
afternoon we will once again be warm and unstable with low to
medium shower/storm chances (20-40%). These diurnally and outflow
driven storms can produce frequent lightning, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall. Look out for high rain rates, as forecast
soundings showing ~2" PWATs and weak steering flow.

Daytime high temperatures will be in the lower 90s but Heat Index
values will be around 100 degrees. Not high enough to issue a Heat
Advisory, however heat safety remains important. Take breaks,
stay hydrated and never leave people or pets in a vehicle.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 800 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The models continue to forecast the mid and upper level high
center over the central Gulf Coast area will narrow and lift just
a bit further north through Tuesday as a wave along the trough
from southern MO into southwest TX lifts northeast into the mid MS
Valley and eastern Corn Belt Tuesday and Wednesday. The very
warm, moist and unstable environment will remain present during
this period over the TN valley, with mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorm chances continuing. On Wednesday, the trough moving
west across the FL peninsula will enter the northeastern Gulf,
with a northward trough/convergence axis moving northwest through
GA into eastern AL. This may enhance the thunderstorm chances in
our eastern counties on Wednesday afternoon and evening. During
this time, gusty outflow winds and frequent lightning will be the
main storm hazards. Temperatures will nearly be a persistence
forecast with highs in the lower to perhaps middle 90s dependent
on afternoon thunderstorms and outflows, with lows in the upper
60s to lower 70s tonight, and lower to middle 70s the next several
nights.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 800 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The models forecast the track of the Gulf Trough/low into the
lower MS valley from Thursday into Friday, while a weak west-
east ridge axis remains at 5h from OK through the TN valley. This
will keep a similar weather forecast late this week into next
weekend. By next weekend, MCS (ridge riders) may trickle into
KY and TN as well. So expect more diurnally driven convection,
along with watching potential outflow boundaries from any MCS that
does approach our area from the north/northwest. High temperatures
will remain very persistent in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with
lows mainly in the lower 70s during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Fog overnight will be dependent on how quickly it can form in the
breaks of batches of cloud cover moving through. For this, only
dropped VIS down to 4-5SM due to lack of confidence in exact fog
coverage and VIS reduction. Any fog that develops will dissipate
with sunrise. Otherwise another day of diurnal showers and
thunderstorms are expected and introduced those into this TAF
package.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...JMS