Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 230529
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
129 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FA. IN ADDITION THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THAT WILL WORK INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE FA STILL TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE BIGGER ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCATIONS ARE ARE ALREADY DROPPING DOWN TO A
MILE OR TWO FOR VSBYS. ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG WORDING INTO THE
FORECAST HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME AREAS SEE
MORE AREAS OR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE
WEEKEND. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE H5
RIDGE. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY.

H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY
IN THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS.

COOLED OFF THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO THE MID 60S IN THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. THE SW WILL STILL SE LOWS AROUND 70. LEANED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF MOS HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AS WE HAVE NOT COME CLOSE TO THE WARMER
MAV TEMPS. KEPT THE HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY SO WILL NUDGE TEMPS UP A BIT
WARMER THAN WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT
INSTABILITIES TO DEVELOP BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER
WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD AND LIMITED FORCING...THINK ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO
EXACTLY HOW FAST THIS WILL HAPPEN. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...PUSHING IT THROUGH FASTER AND FARTHER
SOUTH THAN BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC. HAVE GENERALLY TAKEN A
BLEND OF THE MODELS...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING POPS FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AND ON INTO THURSDAY...THEN LINGERING SOME
LOWER END POPS INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF/CMC. TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE DEPENDENT ON THE
FRONTAL TIMING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEATHER MAP FEATURES AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST AND A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TONIGHT AS FG AND BR
FORM IN A HUMID AIRMASS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY FOLLOW THE DISSIPATING FG AND BR
AFTER 12Z. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY 17Z. DAY CVG AND LUK MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN A DISTURBANCE IN THE MEAN
UPPER FLOW ROUNDS THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






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