Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 051405
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1005 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
MONDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...OFFERING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON IR AND VIS THIS MORNING
ROTATING NEAR THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE/ KENTUCKY BORDER. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER LOW ARE ALMOST IN SCIOTO
COUNTY THIS MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOWING THE RAIN REMAINING SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE CWA. LATEST
HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE STARTED TO CATCH ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE HAVING THEM QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTH. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN 12Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWING PWATS OF 0.77" THIS MORNING.
SO OVERALL STILL EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CWA BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE HELD DOWN A BIT COMPARED TO
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED DUE TO CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA.
TOWARDS THE NORTH THE CIRRUS HAS MANY BREAKS WHICH MIGHT MAKE THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WARMER THAN THE SOUTH TODAY. 850
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND
GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT
THEY WHERE YESTERDAY. HAVE UPDATED MAX T GRIDS TO REFLECT THE ABOVE.

PREV DISCUSSION->
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VLY TO
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY BY EVENING. NAM
SOLN APPEARS TO HAVE TYPICAL BIAS WITH CAPE BEING TOO HIGH. GFS
BRINGS MARGINAL INSTBY WITH BLYR CAPE VALUES AROUND 400 J/JG INTO
S/SE COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE SE THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN KY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO SRN OHIO
TONIGHT AND THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE FAR SE TONIGHT AND
ACRS THE EAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM THE LOWER 80S NE TO THE MID 80S SW.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SLOWER WITH THE NEXT TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT.
WILL LIMIT POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO LOW CHANCE IN THE EAST. CLOUDS AND
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT 8H JET. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO LKLY BY AFTN.
INSTBY WILL LKLY BE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PW/S
INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 2.2 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN. AT THIS TIME
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
WILL MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LTL COOLER WITH
HIGHS NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK
FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP VFR AT
TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR
IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY AND LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
BKN ALTOCUMULUS AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE
SPEEDS STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO





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