Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 262339
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
639 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATES
AND DRY WEATHER TO REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH TROF OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. NRN PORTION OF THE TROF TO
INDUCE SFC WAVE WHICH EJECTS NE INTO THE UPPER MS VLY BY SATURDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THIS LOW AND SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE US. AXIS OF 8H CONVERGENCE INTO
THE NW AT NOSE OF 35-40 KT LLJ TOWARD SUNRISE. WILL FOLLOW MODEL
CONSENSUS HOLDING OFF PCPN UNTIL JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE IN THE NW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING UP AT 5 TO
10 MPH AND THICKENING CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID
30S EAST TO THE UPPER 30S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM TO TRACK NE THRU THE GREAT
LAKES SAT/SAT NIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO TRACK EAST THRU
ILN/S FA SAT NIGHT. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS DURG THE
AFTN ALONG WITH PW/S APPROACHING 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE
WEST LATE IN THE AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LKLY IN THE WEST LATE
IN THE DAY. BEING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD WITH SATURDAYS HIGHS FROM NEAR 50 NW TO THE UPPER 50S SE.

WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL SAT NIGHT WITH FROPA.
DEEP MOISTURE EXITS AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR BUT WITH
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF FRONT IN SPLIT FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX WITH
SNOW IN THE NW SUNDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE. WILL LINGER PCPN ACRS THE
SOUTH SUNDAY WITH AXIS OF 8H CONVERGENCE OVERRUNNING THE SFC FNT.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY A LTL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NW
TO THE UPPER 40S SE. WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS IN THE SE SUNDAY EVENING.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NW TO THE LOWER 30S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE 12Z MODELS SHOWS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE PATTERN FEATURES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...SO
THE FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY ON MONDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...THOUGH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANYTHING THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOUTHWEST
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS STATES AT THE END
OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT WILL BE VFR TO START UNDER DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE FEATURING
ALTOSTRATUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY
CONVERGE EARLY TONIGHT TO FORM CEILINGS AS LOW AS MVFR. FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AROUND 17Z WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND 4000 FT
CEILINGS. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS AT CVG AFTER
00Z SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT CVG
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHOBE2
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






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