Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 262012
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
412 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
A low pressure system pushing across across northern Ohio will
bring showers and possibly a thunderstorm tonight into Thursday
morning. High pressure and dry weather to return for Thursday
night and Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
The best isentropic lift has lifted north of the area, with the
warm frontal boundary currently lifting north through the forecast
area. The prefrontal cold front precipitation over NW Indiana
pushing east more slowly than previously forecast and generally a
bit slower than mesoscale models. Have generally kept with the
more likely precipitation in the far north closer to the shortwave
itself, with an expectation that the trailing precipitation in the
south will meet with lesser instability over the area as it pushes
through after 04-06z. Band should remain narrowly focused, with
some embedded thunderstorms.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
With the frontal system exiting the area during the day on
Thursday, lingering showers will mainly affect eastern half of
forecast area, through slight chances to in the west lingering
through about 18z. Have increased cloud cover behind the frontal
system, as forecast model soundings do linger a shallow band of
low level moisture.
High pressure to push in Thursday night with partial clearing.
While area will be under cold air advection, lingering clouds will
still keep relatively mild overnight lows. The CAA will be short
lived as return flow ahead of the next approaching system on
Friday will bring a return to upper 60 highs in the south.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Winds will pick up during the day on Saturday in advance of a
frontal boundary. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be possible
during the day. These winds will bring warmer air into the region.
Temperatures will be well above normal on Saturday.
Precipitation will hold off for much of the day with showers moving
into northern portions of the forecast area late in the day on
Saturday. The cold front will work through Saturday evening into
Saturday night before stalling out near the Ohio River. The front
will remain in the vicinity on Sunday keeping precipitation chances
across the region. Precipitation will taper off Sunday evening.
There are some model differences for the Saturday night through
Sunday night timeframe. At this time the ECMWF appears to be more
of the outlier, however due to the typical strong performance of the
ECMWF did not completely discount this solution.
High pressure will work into the area late Sunday night. Southerly
flow returns for Monday and Tuesday with continued above normal
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The earlier shower activity has pushed east of the area with some
mid and high level clouds lingering, especially across northern
portions of the forecast area. A warm front currently located just
south of the Ohio River will lift north across our region
tonight ahead of a low pressure system moving into the southern
Great Lakes. An associated cold front will then push east across
the area through mid to late Thursday morning.
Along and ahead of the front, a 40-50 knot 925-850 mb jet will
rotate up across the region later tonight into Thursday morning.
This will allow for some shower activity to develop overnight and
as the low level jet strengthens, we could approach LLWS criteria
at times. Expect the better pcpn coverage at the northern taf
sites closer to the stronger low level convergence so will allow
for a tempo -shra at those locations with just a vcsh farther
Cigs will gradually lower through the VFR category ahead of the
cold front and then should drop into mvfr as we get into the CAA
behind the front Thursday morning.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.