Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 261047
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
647 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016
A stalled frontal boundary across Northern Kentucky will provide
the focus for thunderstorm development today through Wednesday.
Thunderstorm chances will persist Thursday and Friday when a wave
of low pressure is forecast to bring enhanced lift along the
boundary. High temperatures in the middle and upper 80s today and
Wednesday will fall slightly to the lower to middle 80s by Friday
under clouds, precipitation and modest cold advection.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface analysis shows a frontal boundary located over Ohio early
this morning that will drop south of the Ohio River today. Dew
points remain in the low to mid 70s in southern locations ahead of
the front, while mainly upper 60s dew points are evident north of
There is a good chance that thunderstorms will develop along and
south of the front as it gradually makes its way south. Main area
for thunderstorm formation should be in the southern third of the
FA where frontal convergence will be interacting with a
marginally unstable airmass containing around 1000 J/KG CAPE.
Weak wind shear will inhibit development of severe thunderstorms.
Highs in the mid and upper 80s will be a few degrees cooler than
recent days, due to a modest amount of cold advection on a weak
northerly flow behind the front.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Frontal boundary will be gradually sagging southward through
Kentucky tonight through Wednesday. Thunderstorms may still
develop in the persistently moist and unstable airmass associated
with the front. Best chance for thunderstorms will be along and
south of the Ohio River, while northern locations may not see any
For Thursday, a wave of low pressure is forecast to develop to
the west in response to a mid level short wave entering the
Mississippi River Valley. This will result in increasing
thunderstorm chances by Thursday afternoon, especially in
southeast counties where forcing will coincide with peak
instability. A few strong thunderstorms may occur in an
environment featuring moderate instability and mid level flow.
Temperatures rising to the mid and upper 80s Wednesday may slip a
few degrees Thursday under clouds, precip and modest cold
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As we head into the weekend and then into early next week, mid
level trough and moisture will gradually depart to our east.
allowing surface high pressure to build into from the north Sunday
into Monday, bringing a return to dry weather.
Temperatures will show a downward trend into the weekend due to more
clouds and the threat for rain. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90
Wednesday will lower into the lower/mid 80s by the weekend.
Nighttime lows will be mainly in the 60s.
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface cold front has stalled out just south of KCVG/KLUK. VFR
conditions with A few showers or perhaps a thunderstorm across
the srn TAF sites close to the stalled front this morning.
Moderate instby develops today acrs far southern Ohio/Nrn KY invof
this front. Expect coverage of storms to increase durg the aftn
and then diminish this evening with loss of heating. Have included
a mention of VCTS at KCVG and KLUK but the possibility exists
that convection could reach further north toward KILN. Expect VFR
conditions this evening with an increase in clouds. Can not rule
out additional precip overnight but for now the majority of model
solns are keeping the region dry. Have a mention of mvfr vsby
restrictions due to fog formation tonight but increase in clouds
should mitigate lower vsbys.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Friday.