Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 280817
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
417 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east early today. A frontal boundary will
develop into the region this afternoon and linger near the area
into Sunday, causing unsettled weather through the weekend. Cooler
temperatures will filter in behind the front next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper air pattern features a broad southwest flow ahead of a
long wave trough. 1014 mb surface high pressure centered over
Southern Ohio will be pushed northeast rather quickly by the
upper flow, reaching Pennsylvania by noon.

For this afternoon, a warm front will develop well ahead of
surface low pressure centered near the base of the upper
trough. A few showers may occur this afternoon in isentropic
lift around the frontal boundary, affecting mainly western
locations.

High temperatures will vary with respect to the location of the
developing boundary. Highs are forecast to range from the upper
60s northwest up to near 80 southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Warm front nearly parallel to the upper flow will remain in the
region tonight, lifting to Northwest Ohio. As isentropic lift
intensifies under a strengthening upper jet, showers will become
widespread in northwestern locations, while showers will be
much less prevalent in the southeast farther from the boundary.
Convective development will be enhanced by ample short wave
energy and moisture advection traveling along the slow moving
boundary. Thunderstorms will be possible in a zone of elevated
CAPE near the front, and some storms may reach severe limits.
Models indicate favorable wind shear profiles above an
inversion layer that suggest large hail as the main threat.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue mainly across
northern locations on Saturday. Activity should show a
diminishing trend by Saturday evening when the frontal forcing
is forecast to lift toward Lake Erie.

With the area mainly in the warm sector, temperatures will
exhibit a warming trend. Highs will range from the upper 60s
north, up to the mid 80s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Warm and moist southwest flow aloft will lead to an active weather
pattern this weekend into early next week. Surface warm front to
lift north through ILN/s FA Saturday night. Best forcing associated
with low level jet/instability and moisture to our west. Therefore,
will limit pops to chance category with the best chance northwest.

Upper level low to develop over the Central Plains and then lift
northeast into the Upper MS Vly Monday. On Sunday the best forcing
and lift to our west with ILN/s FA in the warm sector. Will limit
pops to chance across the western counties. Temperatures look to be
10 to 15 degrees above normal, with highs Sunday ranging from 80
northwest to the upper 80s southeast.

Model solutions generally similar with strong cold front pushing
east into ILN/s western counties by 12Z Monday and then sweeping
east across the FA early. Due to strong front expect widespread
convection to develop but instability is marginal. PW/s increase to
above 1.5 inches, so heavy rain rates will be likely but
precipitation will be progressive with front east of ILN/s by early
afternoon. 850 mb winds of 45-50 kts will persist in the wake of the
front in CAA pattern. Momentum transfer technique suggest surface
wind gusts of 40 mph likely. Will continue to highlight this threat
in the HWO product. Temperatures will be turn cooler with highs
Monday from the mid 60s west to the mid 70s east.

Deep upper level low to track ene through the Great Lakes Monday
into Tuesday. Will keep chance pops of a shower across the north
into early Tuesday. Temperatures will be a little below normal, with
highs ranging from near 60 northwest to the upper 60s southeast.

Mid/upper level flow backs with moisture increasing Wednesday acrs
the far south and then across the entire FA Thursday. Model
solutions differ on moisture placement Thursday with GFS keeping
main moisture east. Have favored a Canadian/Ecmwf blend with best
pops in the east Thursday but spreading pcpn chances across the
entire area. Wednesday`s highs look to range from the lower 60s
northwest to the upper 60s southeast. Thursday looks even cooler
with highs of 60 to 65.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Period starts dry under weak high pressure giving mainly clear
skies. BR will affect LUK and possibly ILN early in the
forecast. Conditions will deteriorate slowly after 12z as a
warm front develops. Clouds will thicken and lower while
ceilings remain VFR, and showers may occur by evening at western
sites in increasing moisture and lift associated with the warm
front. MVFR conditions may eventually accompany the showers late
in the forecast period as the boundary layer nears saturation.
Kept thunder out for now due to isolated nature. Surface winds
from the southeast will stay under 10 knots during the early
part of the forecast. Speeds around 10 knots out of the south
will be possible late in the forecast with the showers. Wind
shear is expected to develop for a few hours late in the
forecast.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with a chance of
thunderstorms are possible late Friday night into Saturday and
then again Sunday night and Monday. Wind gusts to 35 kt possible
Sunday into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Coniglio



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