Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 221419
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
919 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

...VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...
...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION...

.UPDATE...
Currently: A line training line of severe storms was tracking
northeast across southeast Georgia this morning. Tornadoes and
straight line winds are expected. The entire area of convection was
drifting east.

A Flash Flood Watch was issued for southeast Georgia and Hamilton
County in northeast Florida due to training supercells moving
across the region. Windy conditions are expected this afternoon
due to very strong winds just off the surface, and a Wind Advisory
will continue through the afternoon hours.

A very dangerous situation is developing across northeast Florida
and southeast Georgia today. Long track strong tornadoes (EF2 or
greater) are possible this afternoon. An west to east boundary
could set somewhere across the region this afternoon due to the
convection across southeast Georgia, and this could be a focus
area for long track tornadoes. A PDS Watch will likely be issued
for our entire region later today. This is an extremely rare and
dangerous situation for our area, similar to the major outbreaks
seen across the midwest and southeast to the northwest of our
region. Soundings for this afternoon are showing a near perfect
situation for severe storms, with bulk shear of 60-70 knots,
effective SRH of 300-600 m2/s2, and MLCAPE of 1000+ J/kg.
So,bowing segments with straight lines, tornadoes, and large hail
are likely.

Severe storms should wind down from north to south this evening,
with quiet conditions overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR to VFR into the afternoon. Winds increasing to around 20
knots with gusts to 30-35 knots possible. Widespread severe storms
expected this afternoon into the early evening. Improving
conditions overnight, with winds remaining elevated.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory and Gale Warning conditions will continue
through late Monday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  77  52  64  44 / 100  40  10   0
SSI  74  56  65  47 /  90  70  10   0
JAX  81  55  68  46 /  90  50  10   0
SGJ  82  56  69  47 /  90  70  10   0
GNV  80  54  67  44 /  90  50  10   0
OCF  80  57  68  46 /  90  70  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for Hamilton.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for
     Alachua-Baker-Bradford-Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Nassau-
     Columbia-Flagler-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland
     Nassau-Marion-Putnam-St. Johns-Suwannee-Union.

GA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for Appling-
     Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coffee-Echols-
     Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for
     Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland
     Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

AM...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine
     FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Kennedy/Nelson/Guillet



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