Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 250633
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
231 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014


.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
MID LEVEL IMPULSE HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE GA COAST AND EAST CENTRAL
FL COAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. HRRR MODEL SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG OVER THE FL PANHANDLE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
WITH STRONGEST DYNAMICS REMAINING NORTH OF OUR AREA...VERTICAL LIFT
AND MOISTURE APPEAR TOO LOW OVER SE GA/NE FL FOR PRECIP TODAY.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP EAST COAST SEABREEZE FROM FORMING
AND HAVE WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY. SURFACE COLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LITTLE EFFECTS.

.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
ENOUGH LOW/MID MOISTURE MAY POOL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
SUNDAY AFTN FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE FL. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WITH LOWER/MID 80S COAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 INLAND
TO THE MID 60S COAST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS RESULTING IN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING.
WITH THE FLATTENING RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE DOWN SLIGHTLY
FROM THE WEEKENDS VERY WARM READINGS...WITH LOWER/MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND MAINLY 60S FOR LOWS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ALONG
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE TOWARD THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL USE MAINLY LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR WED/THU...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLING MORE TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BE MILD MAINLY IN THE 60S.


.AVIATION...
INLAND BR AND LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS
LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. WILL USE IFR FOR GNV...WITH MVFR FOR VQQ/JAX.
WILL KEEP CRG/SSI VFR. ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/BR WILL LIFT BY MID
MORNING...WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING
HOURS. SEABREEZE EFFECTS NOT EXPECTED TODAY WITH PREVAILING SW WINDS
THIS AFTN OF 10-14 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS TODAY WILL BE OFFSHORE...BECOMING ONSHORE ON SATURDAY
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A VEERING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF NEXT COLD
FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  59  85  58 /  10  10  10   0
SSI  81  65  76  63 /  10  10  10   0
JAX  87  61  85  62 /  10  10  10   0
SGJ  84  64  79  64 /   0  10  10   0
GNV  87  63  86  61 /   0  10  10   0
OCF  87  64  86  61 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/ALLEN/









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