Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 260943
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
443 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY....COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES CLEARING OUT WITH IT. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG SFC LOW TO
THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH TO THE WEST TIGHTENS. WINDS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS SEEING 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL AREAS.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE FL WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR SE GA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND LOW AS
IT MOVES OFF TO THE NE. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LEAVE MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN
SE GA AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN NE FL.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING LINGERING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
SE GA TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL COME DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING INTO
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. COLDER TEMPS IN STORE WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND
DRIER AIR IN PLACE. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS
INLAND AREAS OF SE GA AND NE FL BUT WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION
WILL NOT BE LIKELY AS WINDS STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...INLAND LOCATIONS THAT ARE PROTECTED FROM THE WIND COULD
SEE FROST FORMATION. COASTAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER THE AREA DUE
TO DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE U.S. COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ON
WEDNESDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN AS NE LOW MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE. IT WILL STILL BE COOL BUT NOT AS WINDY AS NORTH
WINDS DECREASE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S EACH MORNING BUT
WITH WINDS STAYING UP NOT MUCH FROST EXPECTED. FROST MORE LIKELY
INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DROP OFF WITH SURFACE RIDGE
SETTLING OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SHORT
WAVE WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. PUSHING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS
AND ENSEMBLE. DUE TO BEST LIFT/MOISTURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP
POPS MOSTLY SILENT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEKEND. POPS WILL BE
BELOW CLIMO.


&&

.AVIATION...
REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL THE
TERMINALS BY SUNRISE WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING AT JAX...VQQ...AND GNV. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEGINNING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AT 15-20 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND 00Z
CLOSER TO 10-15 MPH BUT TERMINALS NEAR THE COAST...CRG AND SSI...
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY TONIGHT. AS WINDS START TO COME
DOWN AT THE SFC LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ABOVE THE SFC WIND SHEAR COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AND MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED IN FUTURE TAF PACKAGES.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING TREND IN WIND AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL EXIT
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. HAVE UPGRADED THE OFFSHORE WATERS
FROM A SCA TO A GALE WARNING BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY AS FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN ON TUESDAY IN THE OFFSHORE WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO START TO SEE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS BEGINNING THIS MORNING ALSO CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY LOOSENS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TOMORROW.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DISPERSIONS WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY AND TUESDAY
DUE TO STRONG WINDS. NO RED FLAG EVENT EXPECTED DUE TO RH`S
REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES WITH HIGH FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  36  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  56  39  55  38 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  59  37  58  37 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  60  40  59  42 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  60  37  61  38 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  61  39  61  39 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/GUILLET/


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