Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 230729
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
229 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
Fog was beginning to develop across southeast Georgia and interior
northeast Florida this morning. Dense fog is possible towards
daybreak. Temperatures will continue to be mild with morning lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

500mb ridge east of the region this morning will weaken as it
shifts slowly west southwestward to off the coast of central
Florida tonight. Flow aloft will become southwesterly today. A
coastal trough will move inland this morning into the early
afternoon, possibly bringing a few coastal showers to northeast
Florida. A few showers are then possible across interior northeast
Florida in the middle to late afternoon as the coastal trough
pushes further inland. Low level flow will also turn more
southerly today. Cloud cover will be more significant than
previous days, and temperatures could be a degree or two cooler
than yesterday. However, this still means that highs will be well
above normal, and near records for a couple spots. Highs will be
in the low to mid 80s inland and the mid/upper 70s along the east
coast.

A few showers may linger into the evening hours across the western
portion of northeast Florida. Otherwise, dry conditions will
prevail. Areas of fog is possible again tonight across the
interior, possibly dense. Overnight lows will remain well above
normal in the lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Saturday and Sat Night...The upper level Atlantic ridge shifts
over south central FL Saturday as a upper level trof moves over
the Plains. Surface ridge will be centered just over 600 miles
east northeast off of the First Coast. As a result the steering
flow will veer around to the SSW and with temps continuing well
above normal with temps into the 80s inland and mid/upper 70s
coast. Rain chances will remain near nil with chances less than
15% across Marion and Flagler counties. Patchy/areas late night
fog is expected...mainly across the interior, some of which could
be locally dense.

Sunday and Sunday Night...The mid level ridge will continue to
slip south and elongate across south FL Sunday extending both
westward into the GOM and eastward in the eastern Atlantic. At the
same time, a Weakening cold frontal boundary will track across
the SE US and slow down as it pushes into SE GA by Sunday evening.
This will trigger isolated to widely scattered showers across SE
GA with isolated storms closer to the Altamaha River Basin by late
Sunday. Near Record All-Time February temps will be possible
ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon across the region with
mid/upper 80s possible over inland areas and offshore SW flow will
likely push the Atlantic Coast into the lower 80s as well. This
front moves slightly southward or stall across interior SE GA
Sunday night where isolated to widely scattered showers and a few
storms are expected along and NW of Highway 84 in interior SE GA.
The likelihood of late night and morning fog increases Sunday
night across northeast Florida given the slight increase in low
level moisture associated with SWLY flow of of the GOM and dry mid
level air. Min Temps will continue well above norms Sunday night
with lows in the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)...

Monday...Weakening frontal boundary will sag through all of SE
GA/NE FL. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms
possible as PWATs range between 1.5 to 1.75 inches ahead and along
the front. Still some question as to amount/coverage of rainfall
as upper level support for the front will be much less than over
the weekend. Temps will still be above normal but around 5-10 deg
cooler than Sunday ranging from the mid 70s across SE GA to the
upper 70s/lower 80s NE FL. By Monday night into Tuesday... 500 mb
heights become more zonal and the front will stall over northeast
Gulf waters and south central Florida while sfc high pressure
builds northwest of the area. Lower rain chances anticipated
during this period.

Wednesday and Thursday...Fairly low confidence in the forecast by
Wed-Thu time-frame, but overall expect temps to continue above
normal for late February. Possible cold frontal passage expected
by Thu Night-early Friday time frame but details still too fuzzy
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Fog is developing for KGNV and KVQQ, and dense fog is possible.
MVFR/IFR vis is possible at the rest of the TAF sites near
morning. Light winds will prevail overnight, with east to
southeast winds around 10 knots on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore E/SE flow will continue in the 5-15 knot range with
elevated seas in the 3-6 ft range today with SCEC headlines for
the higher seas close to 6 feet offshore. As the high builds
further offshore flow becomes southerly over the weekend at 10-15
knots with similar seas continuing. Models agreeing on weak front
pushing across the coastal waters on Monday with winds briefly
reaching 15-20 knots with seas 3-6 ft. The high then builds north
of the waters on Tuesday with winds becoming NE at 15-20 knots,
with possible seas up to 7 ft.

Patchy/Areas of stratus/fog still possible in the nearshore SE GA
waters tonight as higher dewpoints still override the cooler ocean
temps but they have continued to warm slightly over the past few
days.

Rip Currents: Mainly Moderate risk in onshore flow through the
weekend, except Low Risk today for the southeast Georgia beaches.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Maximum Temps for Feb 23rd...
JAX 85/1962...GNV 87/1962...AMG 82/2012...SSI 82/2012

Record High Minimum Temps for Feb 23rd...
JAX 67/1962...GNV 66/1979...AMG 67/2012...SSI 65/2012

Record High Maximum Temps for Feb 24th...
JAX 88/1962...GNV 88/1962...AMG 85/2012...SSI 84/2012

Record High Maximum Temps for Feb 25th...
JAX 85/2001...GNV 85/1962...AMG 83/2001...SSI 80/2017

All-Time Record High Maximum Temps for the month of February...
JAX 88 on 02-26-1962
GNV 88 on 02-26-1971
AMG 87 on 02-21-2018
SSI 85 on 02-28-1962

All-Time Record High Minimum Temps for the month of February...
JAX 70 on 02-22-1961
GNV 70 on 02-28-1929
AMG 69 on 02-21-2018
SSI 66 on 02-21-2018

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  63  84  62 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  76  62  76  63 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  81  62  82  63 /  10  10   0  10
SGJ  79  63  80  64 /  20  10  10  20
GNV  82  62  85  63 /  20  20  10  10
OCF  83  63  85  64 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Kennedy/Cordero/



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