Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
FXUS62 KJAX 312005
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
405 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.Near Term /Through Wednesday/...
Widely scattered sea breeze convection expected later this
afternoon and again Wed afternoon. Have limited POPs to 30 pct as
model guidance not suggesting very widespread precip beneath upper
ridge and given mediocre precip water values. MOS pops from MET,
MAV, and ECS similar showing fairly low values. Continued above
normal temperatures thru Wed with high temps lwr-mid 90s
inland...upr 80s/around 90 coast.... and low temps tonight
generally upr 60s to lwr 70s. Could be some patchy shallow fog
toward dawn Wed but keeping out of forecast since generally not
expected to be dense.
.SHORT TERM /Wednesday Night through Thursday Night/...
A weak perturbation aloft over the western Atlantic just to the
east of the area will move slowly eastward Wednesday night into
Thursday, and a light west to northwest flow aloft will prevail
through the period. The remnants of Bonnie will move slowly
northeastward along the North Carolina coastline through Thursday
night. Storms will linger through the evening Wednesday night and
then dissipate overnight. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Surface ridge axis will move northward and be
located near the FL/GA border Thursday. Thus, storm motion will be
slow, with storms propagating along the sea breeze and outflow
boundaries. Moderate instability with precipitable water values
ranging from 1.5-1.75" will result in scattered showers and storms
during the afternoon and evening hours on Thursday. Temperatures
will be hot with highs in the low to mid 90s, except upper 80s
along the coast.
.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
An upper level low over south Texas will shear out late in the
weekend as an upper trough digs across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley Sunday and Monday. Weak upper ridging over the region will
then be replaced by troughing Sunday and Monday. The models differ
in the strength of the troughing, but otherwise agree on the
pattern. Scattered afternoon and early evening showers and storms
along the sea breeze boundaries will prevail each afternoon
through Saturday. Moisture will increase as the flow increases out
of the southwest, and enhancement from the the upper trough is
forecast to lead to higher coverage of storms. Warm temperatures
will prevail each day with highs generally in the lower 90s and
lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Continuing VCTS for afternoon and early evening at TAF sites...but
coverage of TSRA expected to be rather limited this afternoon and
again Wed afternoon. Otherwise...VFR conditions expected.
West winds will become SE along the coast this afternoon and again
Wed afternoon. Southerly flow will prevail Thu thru weekend with high
pressure east of the waters. Winds will generally be 10-15 kts with seas
Rip Currents: Low risk today and Wed.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 70 93 69 93 / 30 30 30 30
SSI 72 88 74 87 / 20 20 10 30
JAX 72 92 70 93 / 30 30 20 30
SGJ 72 88 73 88 / 20 20 20 30
GNV 69 92 69 92 / 30 30 30 30
OCF 70 92 69 92 / 30 30 20 30