Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 200143
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
943 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.UPDATE...Broken waves of coastal showers shifted southward this
evening, and was recently focused from St. Augustine southward
toward Flagler Beach. Updated the rain chances along these coasts
based on recent radar trends and short term HRRR guidance which
initialized well, and showed the strongest low level convergence
tonight focused across these counties, with some inland shower
progression toward Palatka and the Ocala National Forest with
gradual erosion as precip treks farther inland. Dry conditions
are expected across SE GA and most of NE Florida.

Breezy east winds will continue along the coast tonight, while
inland winds will decouple and have gone calm across parts of
inland SE GA as high pressure strengthens over the region from the
north. Dry air that mixed down over the area today lowered dew
pts in the low/mid 50s across inland SE GA from Douglas toward
Hazlehurst, and expect these locations will easily drop into the
low 50s for low temperatures tomorrow morning. Normally cooler
locations could reach the upper 40s across inland SE GA. There
could be some localized fog develop as well due to less wind
compared to recent mornings.

Farther south and east toward the Atlantic coast and the remainder
of NE Florida, elevated east winds and passing clouds will prevent
significant fog formation and keep temperatures more mild with
lows ranging from the 60s inland to near 70 along the Atlantic
coast.

&&

.AVIATION...Restrictions to MVFR possible tonight across NE
Florida terminals as onshore ENE flow prevails and shunts
stratocumulus clouds with bases generally between 1.5-2.5 kft
inland. Highest probabilities per the SREF were indicated at SGJ
through the night where there is also a chance of passing showers.
Persistent onshore flow will continue overnight, with gusts 15-20
mph at times along the coast at SGJ. Prevailing VFR expected
Friday with low rain chance confined after daybreak to SGJ and
possibly GNV, but confidence too low to include in TAFs at this
time.

&&

.MARINE...Advisory conditions continued for both near and offshore
legs with evening wind reports gradually decreasing as high
pressure builds in from the north and relaxes the local pressure
gradient. Grays Reef recently reported 16 kts with combined seas
of 5 ft while the Fernandina Beach buoy reported combined seas of
6 ft last observation within 20 NM of the coast. Trended the wind
forecast down to 20 kts this evening, with speeds falling to 15-20
kts after midnight. Seas will remain elevated in the 5-7 ft range
nearshore tonight, but will likely subside enough to fall below
advisory levels Friday based on the latest forecast. The outer
water are expected to maintain advisory level seas into the
weekend.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents will continue through
Friday due to persistent onshore flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Water levels along the local Atlantic coast were
subsiding with the passage of the New Moon and gradually weakening
onshore flow. Recent high tide crested to Minor to Action stage
along the NE FLorida coast, thus will maintain Coastal Flood
Advisory tonight for coastal locations. The St. Johns River basin
continue to crest between Minor to barely Moderate levels near
downtown JAX, with higher tidal levels well into Moderate flooding
southward toward Palatka around high tide. Will continue with the
Coastal Flood Warning for the St. Johns basin, which will likely
need to be extended into at least the first part of the weekend
for the basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  82  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  66  79  71  81 /  10   0  10  10
JAX  64  82  69  83 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  71  81  71  82 /  30  20  10  20
GNV  64  84  65  85 /  10  20   0  10
OCF  66  86  66  87 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Friday for Clay-Coastal
     Duval-Flagler-Inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Enyedi/Zibura/McGinnis



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