Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 301923
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
323 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
STATE OF GEORGIA AND TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE BEING PULLED NNE WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVEMENT...PULLING MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN TN AND
EASTERN KY UNDER SW FLOW. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME ELEVATED RETURNS
ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH SOME OF THESE RETURNS ARE FINALLY
STARTING TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. GIVEN DIURNAL HEATING AND A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST AS WELL...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WE
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT APPEARS AS THE BEST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY.
OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS A BIT BENIGN...WITH VERY LITTLE IMPACTS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OVERNIGHT WILL CUT DOWN ON MOST OF THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF OUR CWA. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE CAN/T BE RULED OUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA CONTINUE TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS OF IF IT RAINS OR NOT...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS /AND MAYBE
EVEN SOME LOW TO MID CLOUDS/ TO LINGER AROUND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
ALL MODELS ARE STILL POINTING AT ENOUGH OF A SURFACE INVERSION
FORMING THAT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF THESE CLOUDS. AS SUCH...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF VALLEY
FOG IN FORECAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO ABOVE PATCHY AT
THIS TIME. IF A LOCATION DOES RECEIVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME BETTER FOG DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOG TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND
NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

FOR MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY FIZZLE OUT JUST NE OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
AND STRETCH FROM THE GULF COAST...UP THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...AND
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN GENERAL CONTROL AT THE SURFACE...THIS
FEATURE WILL WORK WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY/LIFT THAT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...THERE IS NO GOOD TEMP GRADIENTS OR
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE REGION...AND THERE IS A GOOD CAP IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS ACCORDING TO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS SUCH...NOT
EXPECTING MANY IMPACTS FROM THESE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE
OF SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAINS. AND ONCE AGAIN...AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO
COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE REGAINS CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELING...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE APPEARS POISED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A FEW WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM AT TIMES...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. BARING ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE SHORT
TERM...WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY...WE WILL LIKELY COMPLETE A TWO WEEK
STRETCH WITHOUT ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION BY THE WEEKEND. DUE
TO THIS DRY SPELL...FORECAST HIGHS WERE NUDGED UP A BIT ABOVE THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH
THE MERCURY LIKELY REACHING AROUND 90 EACH DAY. ON THE
FLIPSIDE...THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT DIURNAL
RANGE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MOST OF EASTERN KY.
FROM THESE CLOUDS WE ARE SEEING RADAR RETURNS THAT WOULD SIGNIFY
RAIN. HOWEVER...SO FAR...MOST OF THIS MOISTURE HAS BEEN ELEVATED
AND HAS NOT REACHED THE GROUND. GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON/ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSME WHO COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO/. DON/T WANT TO RULE
OUT RAIN COMPLETELY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LACK OF COVERAGE AT THIS
POINT MAKES IT HARD TO KNOW EXACTLY WHEN OR EVEN IF A SPECIFIC TAF
SITE WILL BE IMPACTED. AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE ALL TOGETHER. LATEST NAM
SOUNDINGS AND GFS GUIDANCE ARE STILL POINTING AT FOG DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z DESPITE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS LOW...ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO THE INTENSITY OF THE FOG
AT EACH TAF SITE...SO JUST TRENDED TOWARDS MVFR AT THIS TIME. BY
TOMORROW...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AS TODAY...WITH FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE MORNING AND A DIURNAL CU DECK SETTING UP ALONG
THE MVFR/VFR ZONE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE LOW POPS AND UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND
LOCATION...DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JMW


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