Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 051900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION
AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION.
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS EAST
KY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN TN AND SW VA. THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE REGION HAS HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
BROKE INTO THE 70S. THE STRONGER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THAT REGION. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE
STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUN THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO RATHER LOW FFG VALUES AT PRESENT FOLLOWING THE
RECENT WET PERIOD OF THE LAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS. THIS FFA CONTINUES
UNTIL THE EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND LINGERS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TIMING STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. BANDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH DECENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE.
THE INITIAL BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS MOVED
NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND OVER PARTS
OF EAST TN. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RUN THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ATTM..WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE
ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY WHICH AS GENERALLY BE DRIER THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM IF TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES. THE BEST
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND IN BETWEEN BANDS
OF SHOWERS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 0Z. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR AT THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND VIS IMPROVE FOR
MVFR TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP


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