Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 110032 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
732 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES AND END FROM WEST TO
EAST. SINCE THEY ARE BECOMING ISOLATED IN NATURE ACROSS THE
EAST...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM
EST. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS...NO CHANGES WERE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO OUR EXTENDED TIME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM WEST TO EAST. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE ABOVE THE COLD SFC
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LED TO SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES RESULTING IN ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGERED
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE FROM JKL ON EAST. THE SNOW
ADVISORIES WERE KEPT IN PLACE THROUGH 6 PM IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA WHILE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE...ON PACE TO SET A
RECORD FOR A MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE HERE AT JKL. MEANWHILE...
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS AS WINDS
CONTINUE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ADDING TO THE
CHILL.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE NORTHEAST TROUGH SHIFTS NORTH AND
RETREATS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PLACE
KENTUCKY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A WEAK BATCH OF ENERGY SPREADING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR
FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AND COMING TO AN END INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH A
FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOOK FOR
A CHILLY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE LOWER INTO THE TEENS AND TO
NEAR 10 DEGREES BY DAWN WITH ONLY A LIMITED DIFFERENCE ANTICIPATED
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURES. SOME SUNSHINE RETURNS
WITH COLD AIR CONTINUING ON THURSDAY BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE
ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW BY DAWN FRIDAY.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND. ONLY MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SOME TERRAIN/SNOW DEPTH DIFFERENCES BOTH
NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...WENT SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE ALL MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AND LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE PARKED ACROSS THE HUDSON
BAY REGION AS WE START THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND
STRONG CAA ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO OUR NORTH. ALL
MODELS ARE STILL POINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING THE SW SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...IMPACTING KY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE PEGGED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO PEG A QUICK FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS THE CWA AS IT
PASSES OVER. WHILE ENOUGH COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD RESULT
IN PRECIP FALLING AS SNOW AT ONSET...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH NEAR-
SURFACE WARMING THAT SNOW MAY BECOME/MIX WITH RAIN DURING THE PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...LIGHT
PRECIP WILL LEND ITSELF TO LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY A HALF
OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...FURTHER TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
AREA...AND PULLING YET MORE CANADIAN COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
ACROSS EASTERN KY DESPITE CLEARING SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START SHIFTING EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL REMAIN OVER
KY...BUT WILL LESSON IN INTENSITY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS AT
THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM SLIGHTLY...IN MID 20S
TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. UNFORTUNATELY...OUR FAIR AND
WARMING WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS
AND STARTS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. OUR LOCATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MORE SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW...PROMOTING MORE WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. MEANWHILE...THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS WESTERN TN SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...REACHING CENTRAL TN BY MONDAY EVENING...AND
THEN PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN KY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY
QUICKLY EXITING EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST ECMWF. GRANTED...THIS TIMING IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET FROM THE
CURRENT GFS MODEL TRENDS.

GIVEN THE STRONG WAA...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
FREEZING /IN THE MID 30S/ BY MONDAY...AND THEN INTO THE UPPER 40S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...WHILE THERE WILL BE GOOD PRECIP
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT ONSET TO
START AS SNOW...MIXING WITH OR BECOMING ALL RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THEN TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW AGAIN AS TEMPS FALL BACK
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. PRECIP WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN KY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL TIMING ON HIGHEST QPF/POPS IS QUITE A BIT
UNCERTAIN STILL THIS FAR IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS OF NOW...STORM
TOTAL SNOW FOR THIS PERIOD SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2.5 AND 4 INCHES FOR
THE 2 DAY TIME PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TO FLURRIES AND END FROM WEST TO EAST...LEAVING BEHIND
A PERIOD OF CEILINGS MAINLY IN THE LOW END OF THE VFR RANGE.
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW GENERALLY PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS WEST KY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY SHOULD KEEP
CONTINUED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OR VFR TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS SLACKENING TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP


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