Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 291001
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SLY WIND FLOW WAS NOTED ACRS THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG. LOW CLOUDS HAVE
RAPIDLY DVLPD AND MOVED NWD ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE ATTM.
TEMPS GENERALLY RANGED FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S. HOWEVER...SOME
OF THE COLDER AIR WAS STILL LINGERING IN THE VALLEY AREAS WHERE THE
MERCURY REMAINED IN THE UPPER 30S.

THE AREA WL SEE SPRINGLIKE TEMPS THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS BREEZY S/SWLY
WINDS PREVAIL ACRS AR. MAJORITY OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MRNG WL BE
CONFINED TO CNTRL AND ERN AR...ALONG WITH A SLGT CHC OF DRIZZLE.
SKIES THIS AFTN WL VARY FM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. EXPECT A REPEAT
TNGT WITH LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN DVLPG AND INCRSG OVR MUCH OF THE
AREA...ALONG WITH SMALL CHCS OF LGT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.

BIG CHGS ARE STILL ON TAP STARTING SUN NGT AND MON FOR THE NATURAL
STATE. AN ARCTIC CDFNT IS PROGGED TO DROP SWD INTO NRN AR LATE
SUN/EARLY SUN NGT. THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ASSOCD WITH THE BNDRY IS
FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR IT TO WORK THRU THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AR. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING
SOME TIMING ISSUES AND THIS WL CONT TO BE THE CASE IN THE COMING
DAYS. IF THE COLDER AIR SHLD BE SLOWER OR FASTER TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...THIS WL HAVE A DIRECT EFFECT ON PRECIP TYPE AND DURATION FOR
ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

USING A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS BRINGS THE CDFNT INTO
CNTRL AR ARND SUNRISE MON MRNG AND EVENTUALLY WORKING S OF AR LATE
MON AFTN. ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE WL RMN IN PLACE BEHIND THE FNT.
MEANWHILE...DRIER CONDS WL NOTED IN THE MID AND UPR LVLS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF LGT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE ONCE FROPA OCCURS.

AS THE COLDER AIR CONTS TO ADVECT INTO NRN AR AND SFC TEMPS FALL BLW
32F...LGT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WL BCM THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
HEADING INTO LATE SUN NGT AND MON. SOME SLEET COULD ALSO MIX WITH
THE RAIN AT THE INITIAL ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WL BE TAPERING OFF FM THE W MON NGT AS THE
ASSOCD UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS E OF THE AREA. PARTS OF CNTRL AR COULD
SEE A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO LGT FRZG RAIN BEFORE ENDING. HOWEVER...LTL
IN THE WAY OF AN ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. COLDER AND DRIER
CONDS WL PREVAIL FOR TUE AND TUE NGT.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH IN THE SHORT TERM WILL MOVE BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAR NORTH
THE FRONT WILL MOVE...AND HOW LONG THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LEFT SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...58






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