Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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363
FXUS64 KLZK 260812
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
312 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday night

The main concern in the short term really is the chance of rain
across the forecast area. Upper level high pressure was centered
over the southern Appalachians this morning, with an upper trough
over the rockies and zonal to west- southwest flow from the Great
Lakes region back towards the four corners area. Meanwhile a
stalled frontal boundary was located beneath that zonal/southwest
flow...just to the northwest of Arkansas. Southerly flow around
the periphery of the upper high continues to pump gulf moisture
northward into Arkansas over the next couple of days...though with
waning influence as the upper high shifts east towards the
Atlantic seaboard. This gulf moisture coincident with a nearby
frontal boundary and weak disturbances passing through the
southern plains and into southern Missouri will subsequently to
produce showers and occasional thunderstorms over the forecast
area today and again on Saturday. The best chance for convection
over the next 48 hours will be today actually...with fairly
widespread coverage expected by this afternoon.

Late tonight and into Saturday the northern Rockies trough will
move off towards the Great Lakes region...allowing upper heights
to increase slightly across Arkansas and a minima in the
precipitable water field to slide west into the state. This is
characterized by forecast PWAT values falling from around 2.00
inches yesterday evening back to around 1.50 inches by Saturday
morning. While it appears likely that some shower activity will be
seen Saturday...conditions do not appear as favorable for
widespread rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

The extended forecast will start with the center of the upper high
pressure ridge having moved a bit more into the eastern Plains,
which will push most of the convection chances over central to
western AR. Monday through Thursday, the upper high pressure ridge
will dominate the pattern over AR, and the overall chance of
convection will lower to slight to low chance, and mainly be during
the heat of the day to early evening. Temperatures will be around
normal values to a bit above. Lows will mainly be from the upper
60s to mid 70s, while highs from the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Late in the extended, a tropical low pressure system may be near the
Florida peninsula or Gulf of Mexico, and the movement of this
feature will be monitored for its possible influence on AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     89  72  88  73 /  50  20  30  10
Camden AR         91  74  92  74 /  50  20  20  10
Harrison AR       86  70  87  69 /  50  30  40  10
Hot Springs AR    89  74  90  74 /  50  20  30  10
Little Rock   AR  90  74  91  75 /  50  20  30  10
Monticello AR     91  74  92  75 /  40  20  20  10
Mount Ida AR      88  72  90  72 /  50  30  30  10
Mountain Home AR  88  71  88  71 /  50  30  40  10
Newport AR        89  73  89  73 /  50  20  30  10
Pine Bluff AR     91  74  91  74 /  50  20  20  10
Russellville AR   89  73  90  73 /  50  30  30  10
Searcy AR         90  73  89  73 /  50  20  30  10
Stuttgart AR      90  74  90  73 /  50  20  20  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...64 / Long Term...59



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