Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 281950
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
250 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

There haven`t been any significant changes made to the going
forecast. The initial onslaught of heavy rain is forecast to begin
tonight as the warm front lifts into northern Arkansas, with
convection along the stalled boundary continuing through the day
Saturday. Eventually as the upper support well to the west of
Arkansas shifts east into the southern plains tonight and Saturday
the cold front with this system will get legs and move east into
the state. This would be primarily tomorrow evening and into the
overnight hours Saturday night.

There remains some uncertainty with regard to rainfall amounts and
severe weather chances. First, the warm front has been forecast to
shift into northern Arkansas this afternoon and evening, with
convective initiation late this evening in the northwest parts of
the state before spreading across all of northern Arkansas during
the nighttime hours. There is some indication that the front will
remain hung up in the Ouachitas this afternoon and that convective
initiation will occur in the western parts of the state before
shifting north tonight. If this occurs, model soundings are
supportive of very strong updrafts with the potential for large
hail, damaging winds, and even a tornadic threat. Only time will
tell, but the GFS as well as the convection-allowing HRRR indicate
this will be a possibility. Otherwise the remainder of this event
seems fairly straight forward, with the main opportunity of heavy
rains and severe weather being along/ahead of the cold front as it
moves through tomorrow.

Regarding rainfall, totals have been trimmed back slightly, but
storm total amounts in excess of 5" seem very likely across
northern and northwestern Arkansas. Given the convection aspect of
this event, I would not be surprised to see some rainfall totals
in the +7-8" range pop up in the Ozarks, but this will be more of
an exception. Given the setup, especially given the near-record
PWAT values forecast with the stronger forcing along the cold
front tomorrow evening, flash flooding and river flooding still
seem to be a significant threat. Will continue with a Flash Flood
Watch to cover this.

Precip will come to an end Sunday morning as the front exits the
state. Dry conditions will then round out the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday

Drier air wl be overspreading the area as the aforementioned storm
system departs the region. Some wrap-around moisture wl traverse the
NW part of AR late Sun night and early Mon, producing some assocd
cloud cover.

NWLY flow aloft is expected to prevail thru the middle of the week,
with dry conds expected thru Tue. Temps wl hover near or slightly
below normal lvls. A new storm system wl bring the next rain chance
to AR Wed thru Thu. Drier and cooler conditions wl return for late
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  81  68  72 /  50  60  90  90
Camden AR         73  85  67  72 /  10  60  90  60
Harrison AR       63  79  62  65 /  90  90  90  70
Hot Springs AR    72  81  64  69 /  30  70  90  60
Little Rock   AR  70  83  68  72 /  30  60  90  80
Monticello AR     73  87  71  73 /  10  40  80  90
Mount Ida AR      71  79  62  67 /  40  80  90  50
Mountain Home AR  64  79  66  70 /  90  80  90  80
Newport AR        69  84  69  73 /  40  40  90  90
Pine Bluff AR     72  85  69  73 /  20  50  80  80
Russellville AR   68  81  65  69 /  50  80  90  70
Searcy AR         69  84  68  73 /  30  50  90  90
Stuttgart AR      71  86  70  74 /  20  40  80  90
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 9 PM CDT Sunday FOR
Arkansas-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Grant-
Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-Lincoln-Lonoke-Monroe-
Ouachita-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Sharp-White-Woodruff.


Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-Clark-Cleburne-Conway-Dallas-
Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-
Newton-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-
Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$

Short Term...64 / Long Term...44


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