Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 101743
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1143 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016
Cloud cover a little more persistent than previous thinking and an
update is needed at this time. With cloud cover a little more
extensive, temperatures have been lowered a touch. No other
changes needed at this time.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1124 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016
Ceilings remain around 5000 to 6000 feet at this time with less
cloud cover expected through the afternoon. Ceilings will drop to
MVFR level during the night and early Sunday as moisture increases
in advance of an approaching front. Only VCSH is warranted over
the west and north at this time with the best precipitation
chances after the taf period. South to southeast winds will
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 530 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016)
VFR flight conditions with ceilings at 4000 to 6000 feet will be
seen this morning. The ceilings will gradually thin and break up
through noon time. Winds will be light and variable to light
northeast to east this morning becoming mainly east at 5 to 10 mph
into the afternoon. (59)
Prev Discussion.../ Issued 318 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of rain back in
the forecast for Sunday through Monday, then a lower chance on
Tuesday night to Wednesday with a weaker system, and then again
Friday night to Saturday with some chance of a wintry mix with
temperatures around freezing.
Currently a mid-level deck of clouds was spreading over AR from
the west to central areas. It was holding up temperatures in the
30s over western AR, while the 20s elsewhere. After sunrise, it is
expected to gradually thin and dissipate. The surface arctic high
was centered over AR with light and variable winds, cold
temperatures, and a dry airmass with dew point temperatures in the
teens to 20s. Aloft the broad upper low pressure trough was over
the eastern US with a northwest flow into AR. Moisture is seen
upstream of AR as well as the shortwave energy which will
gradually move east and bring clouds and chances of rain to AR on
Sunday and Monday.
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Cloudy to mostly cloudy will start the forecast in western to
parts central AR with the mid-cloud deck. Mostly sunny in the
east. The clouds are expected to break-up and thin through the
morning, and bring mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs will again
be below normal with the upper 30s in the northeast, to the lower
and middle 40s central to south. Winds will gradually become east
to southeast less than 10 mph into the afternoon. Tonight, clouds
will significantly increase while some light rain maybe seen by
sunrise Sunday in the west. Lows will be around 40 in the west,
while upper to mid 30s central, to lower 30s east. Sunday the
chance of rain increases significantly as upper shortwave energy
moves across AR. While most of the rain will be light to at times
moderate, overall rain amounts Sunday to Monday will remain less
than an inch. The heaviest is forecast to be over central to
eastern areas. Highs on Sunday will be from the lower 60s west,
50s central and east. Sunday night, the chance of rain remains in
the forecast and at this time, temperatures are expected to stay
LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
So, if I remember correctly, a few weeks ago, a certain
forecaster was bemoaning the lack of significant weather, and
continued warm temperatures. I don`t think they have any room to
complain anymore. Okay, it was me...but nonetheless...
By Monday, the front will stall out close to the Louisiana border as
it hits nearly parallel upper flow. Several weak impulses will move
through in the mean flow and interact with the boundary or what`s
left of it, and will keep small precip chances in the forecast for
at least the southern half of Arkansas through Wednesday.
By late Wednesday, troughing associated with an upper low moving
into the Hudson Bay region of Canada will push the boundary
southward and out of the region with a reinforcing shot of cold air.
Thursday night and Friday, well, this is where it gets more
complicated. As troughing digs down from the Rockies into the desert
southwest, upper flow will become more southwesterly, which will
bring Pacific moisture into the region. At the same time, the front,
or its remnants, will begin moving back to the north a bit as
surface low pressure develops along it.
Now, before you get too worked up, it`s still seven days out.
However, there would be several ingredients coming together which
include, but are not limited to...
a shallow cold airmass in place, warm and humid Gulf air moving up
over the shallow cold airmass, and Pacific moisture moving in.
Looking at the data I`m seeing at this point, it doesn`t look like
there will be enough time for temperatures to warm significantly
before precipitation starts. If this scenario pans out, we could be
looking at some wintry precipitation, at least on Friday morning,
which could be in the form of a rain/freezing rain mix. Again, it`s
still seven days out, and will likely change to a degree (forgive
me, there`s no better way to say that).
I guess the one good thing would be that, if this scenario pans out,
it does look like temperatures will warm a little more as the warm
sector advances into the region, but this will be just beyond the
end of the period and short-lived. I guess that`s another discussion
for another forecast cycle.