Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 142340 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FROM OKLAHOMA. HAVE ADDED VCSH TO THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TAFS...AND WILL AMEND IF THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
STATE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY AS FRONT
APPROACHES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ZONAL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
ARKANSAS.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ACROSS ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT HOWEVER FROM A SYSTEM IN TEXAS. A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND WEST LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE DIVERGING AT THE END. SINCE WE ARE TALKING LATE SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...WILL SIMPLY BLEND MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME FOR DAY
SEVEN.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE AS UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
DOWN IN SAID FLOW WILL REQUIRE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COME
SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARDS THE STATE
BUT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY ARE...ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED.

UNDER THE EXPANDING RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A TOUCH ABOVE
NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 89S EXPECTED. OVERALL THE
MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.