Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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299
FXUS64 KLZK 071153
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
553 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY OVER THE NORTH.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SEEN AFTER SUNSET AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE STATE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOW THIS BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AT THIS TIME.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND THE NOON
TIME HOUR...REACHING CENTRAL SECTIONS AROUND SUNSET BEFORE REACHING
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER EARLY MONDAY.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DRY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE BEFORE TURNING WEST
TO NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE 30TH PERCENTILE AND WITH WINDS A BIT HIGHER VERSUS PREVIOUS
DAYS...FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES BY MONDAY
MORNING AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER
FLOW BUCKLES SIGNIFICANTLY IN RESPONSE WITH A STOUT NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE REGION.

A SECONDARY FRONT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES IN OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THE CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL ARE VERY SMALL AND NO
ACCUMULATION OF ANY TYPE IS EXPECTED.

AS A RESULT OF THIS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR
WILL POUR INTO THE STATE WITH HIGHS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES
COLDER IN SOME SPOTS VERSUS WHAT WILL BE SEEN TODAY. A VERY BREEZY
DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND SOME TYPE OF WIND HEADLINE IS LIKELY.

LONG TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN DURING THE
LONG TERM...SHOWING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW STRETCHING FROM ARKANSAS WELL INTO CENTRAL
CANADA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS THOUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING NOTABLY WARMER THAN THE GFS
AND ALSO SHOWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALBEIT STILL FAIRLY DRY IN
THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS.

SUCH A PATTERN FAVORS A COOLER AND DRIER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF
SHOWS...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. WENT AHEAD AND
SHIFTED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS A RESULT. THE
RESULTING CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO COOL TUE AND WED OFF...AND
DECREASE DEWPOINTS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS...AS WELL AS THE EURO...HAS BEEN ADVERTISING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE THU/EARLY FRI. THE GFS IS ACTUALLY A BIT
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT AND DOES DEVELOP A WEAK PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS AS IT PASSES THROUGH. ADDED IN
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT WOULD NOT BE AT ALL
SURPRISED TO SEE THIS END UP BEING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE ON THU AND FRI AS THAT
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...BUT WILL COOL BACK OFF AS THE UPPER FLOW
AMPLIFIES AGAIN AND THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  34  40  26 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  38  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       56  31  35  24 /   0  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  35  44  29 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  35  45  29 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     61  37  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      59  33  43  29 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  33  36  24 /   0  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        59  34  40  27 /   0  10  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     59  36  45  29 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  34  43  27 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         59  33  44  27 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      59  34  44  28 /   0  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56



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