Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 280553
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1253 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WILL CONTINUE TO DIE OUT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KHRO DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...

A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND DRY...COOL WEATHER CONTINUING. EXPECT TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES.
OTHERWISE...HAVE JUST ADJUSTED FORECAST TRENDS FOR LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH ALL UPDATES OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CIRRUS ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  89  69  90 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         65  92  67  91 /   0  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  85  66  87 /  30  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  91  70  92 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     66  91  69  92 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      65  90  67  92 /  10  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  87  67  88 /  20  30  20  10
NEWPORT AR        66  89  68  90 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     66  91  68  91 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  90  68  92 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         65  90  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      66  90  68  91 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65


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