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000
FXUS64 KMAF 311114
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
514 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Radar shows widespread light to moderate rain continues and will
keep CIGs at IFR/LIFR levels through 15Z before conditions improve
to VFR around 00Z. Temperatures will remain above freezing so no
wintry precipitation is expected.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread light to moderate rain is covering much of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico early this morning. This precipitation is
occurring in the moist conveyor belt ahead of a large upper level
low pressure system centered across western Arizona. Will continue
likely to categorical pops this morning for rain as this moisture
continues to push eastward across the forecast area. By this
afternoon the moisture belt will be exiting eastward into central
Texas and precipitation chances will decrease to chance category
except in the central and eastern Permian Basin where likely
to categorical pops will continue near the departing moisture.
There could even be some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
near the Rio Grande River where instability will increase ahead
of the upper low.

By tonight through Sunday night the upper level low pressure
system is progged to split. The southern portion will become the
remains of the upper low and move south into Mexico while the
northern portion transitions into a trough. The net effect will be
a weakening of the entire system. Precipitation chances will be on
the decrease with the best chance across mainly areas south of the
Pecos River in west Texas east of the upper level trough axis.
Progged lapse rates and instability suggest isolated thunderstorms
possible.

By Monday through next Wednesday the upper level low pressure area
is forecast to track from southwest Mexico northeast to south central
Texas by Wednesday. As the system approaches the Big Bend late
Tuesday, showers will be possible in the Big Bend and lower Trans
Pecos region. High temperatures are expected to remain below
normal through Monday but warm to above normal levels by next
Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low forms.

By next Thursday and Friday below normal temperatures are
expected again behind a dry cold front as an upper level
trough moves across the western half of the nation.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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