Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 242020
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
220 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the lee of the Rockies with the base of the
trough over the CWA. Strong winds at the base of the trough are
mixing downward towards the surface resulting in high winds in the
Guadalupe Mountains. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the
Guadalupe Mountains until early this evening. Gusty, west winds will
also be present across the rest of the CWA this afternoon with a few
places possibly reaching brief wind advisory criteria. Patchy
blowing dust is possible across the northern and central Permian
Basin this afternoon.

The upper trough will lift northeastward and another trough from the
Pacific Northwest will move over the region on Sunday. This upper
pattern will again result in gusty west winds but winds are expected
to be not as strong as today. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to
be as warm or warmer than today with downslope warming taking place.
Southerly surface winds will return to the area on Monday with
westerly flow aloft. This will allow for a further warmup of
temperatures. Another trough will dig down the west coast on Tuesday
with southwest surface winds across the area allowing for
temperatures to warm up into the 70s across most of the CWA. As this
trough gets closer, upper lift over the region will increase. This
will result in precipitation chances across mainly the eastern
portion of the CWA on Tuesday night through Wednesday. The base of
an upper trough will pass over the region on Wednesday resulting in
gusty west winds. A weak cold front will push into the area during
the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe resulting in temperatures cooling
into the 60s. Temperatures are expected to warm up for Friday and
Saturday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

We continue to look for time periods when the wx and fuel will be in
alignment to increase the Significant Fire Potential. Despite
warmer/drier/windy type wx today and Sunday the better set-up of
forecast wx and anticipated drying of composite fuels will not be
until Tuesday. Tuesday has its own concerns too, lift in mid-level
could delay/lessen wind potential and there could be high clouds
most of the day. Still fuels will be driest by Tuesday and ERC-G
could be nearing 75th percentile drying and with RFTI 4-5 warnings
could be warranted. At the least RFDs will be needed most every
afternoon thru Tuesday. Latest model guidance has come into much
better agreement for Wednesday and it could be very windy, but the
thermal set-up is not very good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     32  70  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       30  66  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         41  75  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  37  72  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  54  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          27  62  26  66 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          26  63  27  67 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           32  70  32  72 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         32  69  32  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           30  70  29  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

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