Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 200522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected for much of the night with
TEMPO MVFR ceilings expected at the terminals in the 12z to 16z
Monday time frame. An upper level low pressure area across northern
Mexico will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the southeast New Mexico plains and west Texas during
the day Monday. Confidence was high enough to include prob 30
groups from 15z to 21z Monday for MVFR conditions in -TSRA at
KCNM, KPEQ, KFST.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will likely stay east of all area terminals through
tonight.  VFR conditions will persist through the evening, but
expect MVFR ceilings to develop at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas TAF sites by 20/12Z.  Ceilings may dip to IFR early Monday
morning, in addition to MVFR visibilities in fog possibly
materializing.  For now, will include the MVFR ceilings.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CDT Sunday...Satl imagery is indc a
weak upper low over Northern Baja California moving slowly east.
Ahead of this low diffluent flow aloft and a couple of weak
disturbances are bring scattered/isolated showers/thunderstorms to
the CWA. The greatest concentration of shower activity is in the
southern and eastern CWA at this time.

Models are in general agreement in opening up the upper low into a
trough and moving it very slowly east. This will keep the threat
of showers/thunderstorms through the middle of the upcoming work
week. The best chance of showers/thunderstorms will be in the west
during the beginning of the week...with better chances further
east Wednesday/Wednesday night as the trough moves over West
Texas. Daytime high temps will be near normal with the ample cloud
cover...with overnight low temps above normal.

A strong northern stream upper system will drop south southeast to
the Gulf Coast along the TX/LA border by the end of the week. This
will result in a positively tilted ridge building over AZ/NM/West
Texas with a northerly flow aloft. This will bring dry weather to
the CWA starting late Thursday and continuing right thru next
weekend. Temps will warm to above normal as H85 temps warm.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  72  54  70  /  30  30  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              58  75  58  74  /  30  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                56  72  55  68  /  30  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  64  79  62  77  /  20  40  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  73  57  74  /  30  50  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  63  50  62  /  40  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   54  70  53  68  /  40  50  40  30
MARFA TX                   51  66  51  65  /  50  70  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  75  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
ODESSA TX                  57  74  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
WINK TX                    59  71  57  73  /  30  50  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/33

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