Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
FXUS64 KMAF 212340
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
540 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017
00Z TAF issuance
Airport weather warning will continue for KMAF through 22/12Z for
sustained winds over 30 kts and gust over 40 kts. Strong winds
will continue through the night with gusts over 50 kts possible at
KCNM. Winds will decrease through the day Sunday and VFR
conditions will remain in place.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/
WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles, where sfc analysis pinpoints the associated sfc trough.
This, as well as strong winds rounding the base of the trough have
resulted in a windy day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Fortunately, cloud cover has put a damper on mixing, generally
keeping winds lower than previously forecast. Both NAM and GFS
buffer soundings do not mix this afternoon as deep as they did 24
hours ago, and NAM H7 height gradients are not at tight as
yesterday`s, either. Still, the NAM carries a decent mtn wave
signature thru 12Z Sunday, as well as a tight sfc pressure gradient.
Aided by a little subsidence on the backside of the trough, we see
no reason to discontinue wind warnings/advisories as they currently
lay, as winds look to stay up all night. In fact, models suggest
the strongest winds rounding the base of the trough will be over
the SW zones at 12Z Sunday, so some warnings/advisories SW and S
will need to be extended into Sunday.
Otherwise, expected rainfall today hasn`t really panned out,
especially considering a dry subcloud layer as depicted on the KMAF
12Z RAOB. Once the trough clears the region, grids look dry into
the extended. An upper ridge builds in following the trough,
w/temps Monday climbing into the 70s most locations. This looks to
be our warmest day this forecast, w/a series of fronts arriving
beginning Tuesday, taking temps to below normal by Wednesday
afternoon, thru the extended.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 43 64 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 40 61 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 45 70 42 77 / 10 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 41 65 42 82 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 29 50 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 36 60 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 30 57 29 72 / 20 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 42 62 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 42 62 39 75 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 40 63 35 76 / 0 0 0 0
NM...Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for Central Lea County-
Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.
High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Eddy County Plains-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
High Wind Warning until noon CST Sunday for Big Bend Area-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for Terrell.
High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for Guadalupe
Mountains-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.
Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for Pecos.
Wind Advisory from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ to noon CST /11 AM MST/
Sunday for Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.