Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 212057
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
257 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Clouds have scattered out across most of West Tennessee and North
Mississippi this afternoon which have allowed temperatures to rise
into the mid 60s to lower 70s across most of the CWA. Clouds will
begin to fill back into the area this evening as a low pressure
system tracks eastward across Missouri. A line of convection is
expected to develop over the next 2-3 hours along the trailing
cold front. Models continue to show the SFC low occluding before
the line enters Eastern Arkansas around midnight tonight. With
the SFC low occluding, the warm sector will get pinched off thus
limiting instability as the line pushes into the Mid-South. As a
result, expect the line to be diminishing in strength as it pushes
into the CWA. Can`t rule out an isolated strong or severe storm
initially occurring across Eastern Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel, but elsewhere should just be general thunderstorms.

Whatever is left of the line will push east into Middle Tennessee
and Alabama around noon. Wrap around clouds from the upper level
low will begin to move into Eastern Arkansas during the late
afternoon hours, spreading over the areas along and north of I-40
Monday Night. Colder air will also filter into the area on the
backside of the upper low thus temperatures across Northeast
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel may drop to around 50 degrees
during the late afternoon hours on Monday.

Clouds from the upper low may linger across portions of West
Tennessee on Tuesday otherwise sunny conditions will return.
Temperatures will be near normal with highs ranging from the mid
40s to the lower 50s.

Tranquil weather conditions and seasonable temperatures will
continue through the end of the week as high pressure settles over
the region.

On Friday, another upper trof will begin digging into the Plains
allowing a cold front to move into the Mid-South Friday Night into
Saturday. Rain chances will begin as early as Friday across
Eastern Arkansas, but the best chances for rain will occur on
Saturday. Colder temperatures will filter back into the Mid-South
behind the front on Sunday.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect occasionally gusty south winds this afternoon as conditions
improve to VFR at KMKL and KMEM. KJBR should remain MVFR. Winds
will increase later tonight as the cold front approaches. A
weakening line of SHRAs/TSRAs with MVFR cigs/vsbys will move into
KJBR around 09z and KMEM around 10z. East of KMEM there probably
will not be much thunder. Line of SHRAs will reach KMKL at 12z and
KTUP at 14z. Quick clearing and gusty SW winds expected behind
the front on Monday.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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