Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 260406

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1106 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Updated to add 06Z Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 835 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/

High clouds continue to increase across the Mid-South this evening
in an area of diffluence aloft downstream of an approaching
shortwave trough. As the attendant surface cyclone moves east from
central NE, southeast winds will develop across the Mid-South.
This will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night
and will begin the poleward transport of low-level moisture.
Expect overnight low temperatures mainly in the 50s tonight.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will swing across the region
Wednesday afternoon and evening, enhancing large scale forcing for
ascent. Meager moisture return will limit rain chances, but we do
have 20-30% PoPs during the afternoon and evening hours, mainly
north of I-40. Coverage should be limited so appreciable rainfall
is not anticipated, especially over areas where drought conditions
persist. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s
and lower 80s. Fire danger will increase for tomorrow afternoon as
well. Twenty foot wind speeds will be near 10 mph around peak
heating, with minimum RH values near 30%.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/


Currently...Upper level high pressure covers the region. As a
result mostly sunny skies prevail along with above normal
temperatures. Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes
is edging into the region from the northeast. As a result temps
range from slightly above normal over northeast sections of the
area, Paris is 72F, to much above normal over North Mississippi
where lower 80s are prevalent.

Expect slightly warmer temps tonight as southerly flow develops
in advance of an approaching system. Lows will be in the 50s. A
progressive mid level trough and associated cold front will push
into the region later on Wednesday. SSW flow ahead of the system
will help temps into the lower 80s just above everywhere. The
front will be in a weakening phase as it approaches the region
Wednesday evening. Best chances appear to be across Northeast
Arkansas in the evening as a weakening line of showers and
thunderstorms approaches. The best upper support and lift remain
well north of the region while the moisture return is weak. As a
result this system does not look like a major rain producer and
will not provide much relief for the drought.

Any rain will end early Thursday and broad upper level high
pressure will build across the region into early next week. A
weak cold front may try to move through this weekend but even with
that expect much above normal temperatures through the period.
Saturday could be especially warm as that weak cold front
approaches and a southwest breeze advects in very warm air and
possibly highs in the mid 80s, which is record territory.



06Z TAFs

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period. Light
winds tonight will gradually increase to around 10 kts after
26/16z. Have introduced VCSH at JBR after 27/03Z as a cold front
will begin to approach the area late Wednesday evening.




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