Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 201746
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1146 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017
Updated to add 18Z Aviation Discussion.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1022 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/
Updated to raise temperatures and lower cloud cover.
Also...removed pops this afternoon across northeast Arkansas.
An upper level ridge of high pressure and continued low level
southerly flow will keep record warmth in place across the Mid
South today. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s across
northwest Tennessee to around 80 degrees in the Memphis metro
area. Partly sunny skies and dry conditions will also persist with
breezy southerly winds at times.
Updated the forecast to increase high temperatures a few
degrees...lower cloud cover...and remove pops from northeast
Arkansas. Updates will be sent shortly.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/
Strengthening southerly flow will prevail over the Midsouth
today, in advance of an approaching longwave upper trof over the
southern plains. Despite considerable high clouds, high temps more
typical of mid/late April will prevail.
Rain chances will increase considerably west of the MS River this
evening, and over the remainder of the Midsouth during the
overnight. North MS will likely receive the most rain on Tuesday,
near the northeast quadrant of a forming closed upper low. This
upper low will remain cut-off Tuesday night, but exit, dropping
into the central Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday.
Predominately dry conditions will prevail Wednesday and Thursday.
Fast zonal flow aloft will maintain support for southerly low
level onshore flow. Some warm advection drizzle or isolated showers
may occur Thursday near the TN River, under the left exit region
of an upper jet streak.
00Z medium range models continued to show a possible rain event on
Friday, but have slightly delayed the timing with a slower and
more neutrally-tilted upper low tracking into the upper MS River
valley. Best severe threat will likely remain confined to the Ohio
Dry, cooler and less humid conditions to prevail Saturday, before
return flow commences in advance of another upper trof lifting out
of the plains Sunday night. The upper pattern will remain quite
progressive into the first week of March.
VFR conditions expected to prevail this afternoon and evening.
However, conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR
conditions for the remainder of the period as an upper level low
moves across the region. This will also bring rain chances back to
the area late tonight through the end of the TAF period. South
winds between 8-12 kts will weaken to 3-6 kts tonight and
gradually veer Northwest at JBR Tuesday morning.