Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 010424

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1124 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1036 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

Skies are cloudy over much of west Tennessee and north Mississippi
with clear skies over the remainder of the forecast area.
Temperatures this evening range from the mid 50s to upper 60s.
Most of the rain has finally exited the forecast area with only a
few lights showers over far eastern sections. All of the remaining
rain should move into middle Tennessee and north Alabama before
midnight. Will update forecast to remove evening wording.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

Current main convection line has advanced east of the region
leaving gusty south winds and slightly drier air in it`s wake. A
few light rain showers from wrap around moisture were tracking
into the northern counties. Temperatures ranged from the upper 60s
to mid 70s...with plenty of lingering cloud cover.

Next 12 hours...short term models agreeing on scattered
convection from upper level low redeveloping for late this
afternoon and early evening east of the Mississippi River. This
activity will have to struggle with a worked over atmosphere and
lower dewpoints. None-the-less a few more cracks of thunder are
expected with perhaps an additional half inch of rainfall. This
should not pose any additional flash flood the
current lull in activity is allowing for morning waters to recede.
Clouds will partially clear from west to east tonight with breezy
southwest winds keeping the low levels well mixed.

Monday and Monday night...the aforementioned low will continue to
slowly track northeast into the western Great Lakes this period.
Strong pressure gradient will keep westerly winds in the northern
and western Midsouth counties near advisory strength. Lingering
low level moisture will also provide for broken stratocumulus
cloud cover to extend down to the I-40 corridor...these clouds
should scatter out with the loss of heating by sunset. Winds will
diminish tomorrow night and back to a more southerly component.

Tuesday through Saturday...models continue to make new
adjustments with the evolution of the next midlevel
shortwave/closed low to drop south. The GFS has flopped to a more
aggressive approach with a deeper low center that lingers nearly
overhead longer. The ECMWF has also flopped to a more persistent
open wave that briefly closes off in the Ohio Valley Thursday.
This scenario forecasts a slightly drier period. Have taken a
blend of both models with clouds streaming in late Tuesday and a
threat for a shower or storm Tuesday night. Better rain chances
are anticipated for Wednesday and Thursday...with points east of
the Mississippi River seeing light shower activity extended into
Friday. The low will move east by Saturday with a strong northwest
flow aloft bringing subsidence and stability. Temperatures this
period will start off seasonal...then cooler for Thursday and
Friday...then back to seasonal Saturday.




Some MVFR Cigs linger at TUP all showers have exited the Midsouth.
VFR conditions are expected at all sites by 11z and should
continue through tomorrow. Winds will remain southerly...10-15kt
tonight 15-20kt tomorrow with gusts to 30kt. Wind speeds should
finally drop to around 5kt after sunset tomorrow.




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