Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 241147

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
647 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016


Updated for aviation discussion


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

High clouds cover much of the forecast area early this morning
with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to around 70 degrees.
The main weather feature is a frontal boundary which currently
extends from northwest Minnesota through central Nebraska and into
northern New Mexico. This front will move very little today. Some
thunderstorms have developed ahead of this front over southwest
Oklahoma. This area of thunderstorms is moving east and could
produce additional thunderstorms later today. Some of this
activity could reach western sections of the forecast area.
Temperatures will be quite warm this afternoon with highs in the
mid to upper 80s.

By tonight...another round of thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the frontal boundary. As this activity
moves east, some of the thunderstorms could reach western sections
of the forecast area while most areas will remain dry.
Temperatures will remain on the warm side with lows Wednesday
morning in the mid to upper 60s.

On Wednesday...the frontal boundary will move a little further
east with more thunderstorms possible over western sections of the
forecast area. There will be a marginal risk for severe weather
mainly over northeast Arkansas with large hail and damaging winds
as possible threats. Temperatures will remain quite warm with
highs in the upper 80s. It appears that Wednesday night should be
dry as thunderstorm development along the front will not be as
much as the next couple of days.

Thursday will also see a small chance of thunderstorms over
western sections of the forecast area. Temperatures will be close
to 90 degrees in the afternoon. The upcoming holiday weekend looks
to be similar to the next few days as the frontal boundary remains
stuck over the central and southern plains. This will mean there
will be at least some chance of thunderstorms from Friday through
Memorial Day. It appears that the most likely day for
thunderstorms is Friday with little rain expected for Saturday
night and Sunday night. Temperatures will remain a little above
normal levels for the holiday weekend.




VFR conditions will continue this period. Uncertainty with timing
and placement of convection continues. In the short term tsras may
impact KJBR and KMEM this morning. Hi-res models indicate another
another chance for tsras late afternoon/early evening. KJBR stands
the best chance a tsra on station. Expect south winds at 7-10 kts
diminishing somewhat after 25/00z.



.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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