Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 290521
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1121 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-4O THIS EVENING. AS OF 8 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS. A COUPLE OF
REPORTS OF SLEET AND/OR SNOW HAVE COME IN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT THINK THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS PRECIPITATION
IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND PUSH EAST THIS EVENING. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT/S FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND TO ADJUST ANY
OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. SO
EXPECTING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION
FOR SOME PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FINALLY PUSH THOUGH THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING AN
END TO THE RAIN. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
BRING A DRY AND COOL END OF THE YEAR AND START OF THE NEW YEAR. BY
THE END OF THURSDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH
TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH. THE TIMING IS NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR ON THIS.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT IT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO REMOVED THE FREEZING RAIN FROM THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS GET IN HERE FASTER AND TEMPERATURES
START OUT BELOW FREEZING IT MAY BE A DIFFERENT STORY. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
RAIN TO THE AREA AND WILL MAKE THE FIRST WEEKEND OF 2015 QUITE
WET. PRECIPITATION MAY END ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
AND PARTS OF WEST TENNESSEE. AT THIS TIME...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
PROBABLY A GOING TO BE DUSTING OR LESS. TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE

IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING CLOUDS OUT FOR
SEVERAL RUNS NOW. WILL SIDE WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE
AND KEEP CLOUDS AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AT TUP
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR AT BEST. PATCHY 3-5SM BR
IS POSSIBLE..ESPECIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
THAT JBR WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TOMORROW NIGHT.

WINDS EAST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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