Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 261119
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
619 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016
Updated to include the 12z aviation discussion below.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 227 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/
Most of the Mid-South will have to endure one more day of hot and
humid conditions. The one exception may be Northeast Arkansas and
the Missouri Bootheel where a weak cold front currently sits.
Models are showing showers and thunderstorms developing along this
front this morning. The front will gradually lift northward into
Southeast Missouri by this afternoon. The convection and cloud
cover will likely keep highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across
Elsewhere, only isolated diurnal convection is expected. The
isolated convection and limited cloud cover will allow highs to
reach into the mid 90s. Higher dewpoints are currently pooling
across the area due to the weak front that is stretched across
Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. If dewpoints remain
in the mid 70s by this afternoon, heat indices could reach 105
degrees. Expect some mixing to occur across West Tennessee and
Northeast Mississippi, where the warmest temperatures will occur,
as the front lifts northward. This should keep heat indices just
below 105 degrees. Thus will hold off on a heat advisory.
The weather pattern will turn wet by Wednesday as a weak upper low
drifts into North Mississippi. Expect numerous showers and
thunderstorms to develop across the area by Wednesday afternoon.
The convection will keep high temperatures in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Some of these storms could produce localized heavy
rainfall that could cause flash flooding.
The weak upper low will dissolve into a broad upper trof that will
sit over the Mid-South through early next weekend. Several
shortwaves will move through the trough and set off waves of
shower and thunderstorm activity. The convection and abundant
cloud cover through the period will keep high temperatures in the
mid to upper 80s.
By latter part of the weekend into early next week, the upper
trough will push east allowing for the upper ridge to begin
rebuilding into the area. Expect chances for showers and
thunderstorms to become more diurnally driven and isolated to
scattered in coverage by Sunday and Monday. High temperatures will
begin to creep back into the lower 90s.
A few thunderstorms will be possible this morning north of JBR,
with generally benign wx across the remainder of the CWA. However,
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated across
the Mid-South by midday, continuing through around 00z. Confidence
is low that thunder will occur on station at any particular
terminal, but there should be sufficient coverage to warrant VCTS
in the 12z TAF package. Gusty winds and tempo reductions in
ceiling/visibility will be possible in and around convection, with
otherwise VFR conditions prevailing through 06z. Patchy, light fog
will be possible late tonight, mainly at KMKL.