Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 081511
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
911 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016
Update to lower high temperatures today.
Strong cold air advection behind an arctic cold front have
resulted in temperatures continuing to fall. Over the past 6
hours...temperatures have fallen anywhere between 5 and 10
degrees. Temperatures should eventually level out over the next
few hours and then only rebound a degree or two if at all.
High temperatures have been lowered today to account for this
strong low level cold air advection.
Updated products out shortly.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/
At 3 AM CST around the region a quiet morning is ongoing with
temperatures ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s north to south.
Surface winds are from the NNW as cool high pressure begins to
build into the FA. Latest surface analysis depicts the area of
high pressure centered well to the NW of the region over western
Canada, while latest H5 analysis depicts a potent upper low over
eastern Canada, with an upper level trough extending southwest to
the Texas Panhandle.
The coldest air in almost a year will infiltrate the region
today, with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. In fact, the
forecast high of 39 degrees at Memphis could be the coolest since
January 23rd, the last time the airport recorded 39 degrees for a
high. Conditions will be dry and pleasant with strong high
pressure in place over the region for Thursday through Saturday.
Thursday and Friday night low temperatures will be in the teens to
lower 20s, with Friday high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s
rebounding nicely into the 40s on Saturday as the surface high
moves east of the region, with resulting southerly surface winds.
Rain chances return on Sunday and Monday under the influence of
moisture advection into the region from southerly surface flow,
and a shortwave trough moving aloft. Temperatures will be warmer
for Sunday and continue through at least midweek, with highs more
seasonable in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Kept at least slight
chance POPs in the forecast through midweek, with models depicting
a couple of weak shortwave impulses in the flow aloft. Models fall
out of agreement with the 500 hPa flow by Wednesday, with the GFS
more robust with an upper trough and thus higher QPF, and the
ECMWF holding more zonal flow and much drier.
VFR forecast areawide, as dry Arctic high pressure prevails.