Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 180506
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1206 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...

NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

DISCUSSION...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS INDUCED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
NOTED ON EVENING REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
LOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER AS COMPARED TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MODIFIED
AIRMASS. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND BACK INTO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE
PREVAILED WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT IN THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHALLENGES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN
FOR LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE THE
PRIMARY CHALLENGES IN THIS FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. I THINK IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP TO PRODUCE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...HAVE HELD OFF
LOW RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GIVEN CURRENT SHORT
TERM TRENDS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS RETURNING THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS REMAIN IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BETWEEN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MAINLY
RAINFREE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. BOTH FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
LOWER CLOUDS...THOUGH STILL VFR...INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR NEAR TUP FROM 08Z THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MEM AND MKL...BUT WILL REMAIN
SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO WENT VCSH FOR THOSE SITES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE
EAST TOMORROW BEFORE CALMING AGAIN AFTER SUNDOWN TOMORROW.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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