Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 031717
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1217 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER EAST TN THIS MORNING WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS SW FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MIDSOUTH. STILL SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH A PRETTY SOLID CLOUD DECK
AROUND 3KFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS DECK TO SCATTER
OUT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OFF HIGH
TEMPS WHERE CLOUDS ARE THICKEST. HIGHS WILL BE 6-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015/

LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE IN AREAS MAINLY NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS NOW LOCATED OVER
EAST TENNESSEE. MODELS INDICATE IT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NORTH. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND DRIER AIR FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TODAY...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE
MID 80S.

THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN STUCK BETWEEN THE BROAD UPPER TROF IN THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS. AS A
RESULT...THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS BY
LATER THIS WEEK...THE AREA COULD GET INTO A MCS PATTERN WHERE A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI/IOWA AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS
ALL SEEM TO INDICATE THE FIRST ONE MAY MOVE IN EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONE MOVE IN FRIDAY
MORNING AS ONCE THESE COMPLEXES DEVELOP THEY SEEM TO MOVE FASTER
AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS DEPICT. FOR NOW HAVE A DRY
FORECAST GOING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS SOLUTION...POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL
LIKELY OCCUR NEAR PARIS. REMNANTS FROM THE MCS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY. CLOUD COVER FROM THE SYSTEM
MAY ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A TAD COOLER.

MODELS NO LONGER AGREE ON SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE
ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER BUT OTHERWISE PRETTY CONSISTENT THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY AND THEN
STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THUS BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA. HOWEVER THE GFS HAS TOTALLY CHANGED FROM LAST NIGHTS
RUN. IT NOW FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY
AND DOES NOT BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS MONDAY COULD BE THE FIRST 90
DEGREE DAY IN AWHILE IN MEMPHIS IF THE GFS TURNS OUT TO RIGHT. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO REGARDLESS OF
WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT...TUESDAY COULD BE WET. WILL GO WITH 20
POPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AND A 40 POP ON
TUESDAY UNTIL MODELS GET SOME BETTER AGREEMENT.

KRM

.AVIATION...

A BKN TO SCT STRATO-CU DECK HAS DEVELOPED WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
THIS DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER 22Z ACROSS MOST AREAS
WITH CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN
9-13Z ON THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 3 AND 4 SM
UNTIL BURNOFF.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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