Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 062350
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
650 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IS OVER
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST DURING TH
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY REACH MAINLY WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT.

BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS KANSAS
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL MEAN
MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE
CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THERE COULD BE STRONG OR EVEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY BUT THE
COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH AS MONDAY SO THERE IS A
SMALLER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
MEAN MORE THUNDERSTORM FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SOME LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT
STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW AT 10-12 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AFTER 07/16Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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