Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 010936
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
436 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD STAY A FAIRLY CONSISTENT NE
DIRECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN ABSENCE OF DGZ THROUGH CONVECTIVE LAYER WITH
FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE (COLDER THAN -20C AT BASE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION) ALONG WITH DRY ANTICYCLONIC/DIFFLUENT LOW-LVL
FLOW AND INVERSION HGTS AT OR BLO 3KFT WOULD EXPECT ANY NE-N FAVORED
FLOW LES TO BE LIGHT TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2"/12
HRS. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE MESOLOW
FORMATION OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT UNDER LIGHT WIND REGIME AND LAND BREEZE FORMATION. AT THIS
TIME IT REMAINS UNCLEAR THAT IF A MESOLOW FORMS IT WILL IMPACT LAND
AREAS. HOWEVER...ENHANCED LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND
MUNISING LATER THIS EVENING COULD BOOST OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS BY AN
INCH OR TWO.

BESIDES THE LES...TEMPS WILL FALL WELL BLO ZERO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FAR ERN COUNTIES AND ALONG THE WI BDR OF THE INTERIOR WEST.
FORTUNATELY...WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LAKE MODERATION/LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS...WIND CHILLS SHOULD STAY HIGHER THAN 20 BLO AND ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

GREATEST RISK OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED IN NW WIND
SNOWBELTS WED THROUGH WED NIGHT AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. MAY SEE WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR
ADVISORY CRITERIA THU MORNING.

MON MORNING WILL SEE ONGOING LES IN THE N TO NW SNOWBELTS AS 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -22C. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...BUT WILL BE PUSHED QUICKLY E AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES/DEVELOPS INTO THE AREA ON MON. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE RIDGE SUPPRESSES SOUTHWARD...W TO WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW RESULTS BY MON AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT
WHEN ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS ADDED TO THE TROUGH /PUSHING IT SLIGHTLY
SE/ AND FLOW VEERS TO A WNW DIRECTION. THE FLOW DIRECTION FAVORS THE
KEWEENAW FOR THE BEST SNOW...BUT EXACTLY HOW LONG THE STRONGER
BAND/S/ LINGER IN ANY LOCATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN. AT THIS
TIME...MODEL WIND FIELDS DO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SEEING A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW...ESPECIALLY THE NRN/WRN KEWEENAW...LATE
MON INTO TUE MORNING. THIS IS BACKED UP BY MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM
AND GFS. THE 00Z/01 NAM HAS UP TO 0.15 INCHES...WHICH WOULD BE
UNDERDONE IF THE SCENARIO DOES OCCUR...AND THE 00Z/01 GFS HAS 0.07
INCHES OF QPF...WHICH WOULD BE WELL UNDERDONE DUE TO MODEL
RESOLUTION.

WNW FLOW LES IS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH
LINGERS...BUT A COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN WITH A SYSTEM LATE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AND WILL BRING EVEN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS PROBABLE ALONG THE FRONT WHILE IN
THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODERATE LES WILL CONTINUE
AT LEAST INTO WED NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AS LOW AS -27C. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN CONDITIONS MODIFY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AS THE ECMWF BRINGS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR WITH WSW FLOW BY
12Z THU WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER IN DOING SO. WITH
THAT COLD OF AN AIRMASS...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SMALL SNOW FLAKES
THAT ARE EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VIS. COULD SEE HEADLINE WORTHY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS.

LOOKS LIKE WSW FLOW AND WAA CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT...BUT MODELS
VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM RUN TO RUN AND FROM MODEL TO MODEL AFTER
THAT...SO WILL JUST USE A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR FRI THROUGH SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL SITES THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PERIODIC AT SAW
AND CMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

NE WINDS CHANNELING DOWN WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALLOW FOR WIND
SPEEDS TO REACH AROUND 25 KTS THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS
GENERALLY BLO 20 KTS ELSEWHERE. WEAK GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KTS TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA MON NIGHT AND
THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE GUSTS WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
WED NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS


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