Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 232226
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 PM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER
THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM
MEXICO...ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA...THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
MONSOON MOISTURE HAS PUSHED A LITTLE DEEPER INTO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ THE PAST 18 HOURS...BUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
ON TRACK TOWARD THE 112 TO 117 DEG F MARK ON THE DESERTS. AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS POSTED THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE APPEARANCE OF MORE MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS FROM SOUTHEAST AZ COULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL HEATING
CURVE FOR THU...I.E. A FEW DEGREES BELOW EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA. FOR NOW...HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES FOR THURSDAY SUPPORT
ANOTHER POTENTIAL HEAT WARNING DAY...AND...MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR
PHOENIX FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO DROP FROM 61F THURSDAY MORNING
TO 44F BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO...DUE TO THE UNKNOWN VARIABILITY IN
MOISTURE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING GOING FOR THURSDAY ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE MARGINAL.

CONVECTIVE WISE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX THIS EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL COVER THE AREA...HOWEVER A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE CONFINED TO
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AZ...AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX.
AGAIN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WEAKENS A BIT...AND A LITTLE MORE MONSOON
MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION. A BETTER THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WORK INTO THE
AREA UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 23       JULY 24      JULY 25
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   114 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  115 IN 1943
YUMA      115 IN 1959   117 IN 1943  120 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL HOLD FOR THE PHX AREA
TERMINALS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...IF NOT VRB OUT WITH SPEEDS
GNLY 6KTS OR LESS. HI-RES MODELS TODAY ALL AGREEING ON GUSTY STORM
OUTFLOWS MOVING INTO THE PHX METRO NEAR 24/00Z GNLY FROM THE EAST.
CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR STORM OUTFLOWS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS MORESO
THAN ORGANIZED STORMS. WITH SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...NOT CONFIDENT IN STRONG STORMS MAKING IT TO KPHX...BUT KSDL
AND KIWA COULD AT LEAST HAVE VCTS COVERAGE. DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL FILL
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AOA 12-15KFT POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MONSOON STORM COVERAGE SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN WELL EAST OF KIPL AND
KBLH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS MORE LIKELY
SPREADING IN DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE
SCT-BKN COVERAGE LIKELY FOR KBLH...WITH LESS FOR KIPL. KBLH WINDS TO
MAINTAIN SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE EVENING...UNLESS
DISRUPTED BY A PASSING STORM OUTFLOW. VRB AFTERNOON WINDS FOR KIPL
TO BECOME WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SLIDES FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH. EVEN SO...READINGS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE AS THE HIGH SLIPS TO THE
SOUTH...THOUGH MINIMUM AFTERNOON DAILY HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL
DIP BELOW 20 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SHOULD HOWEVER BE MODERATE
TO GOOD. THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE
WILL BE MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SE CA...THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER. WINDS TO
GENERALLY FOLLOW DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN HEADINGS...WITH MOSTLY
LIGHT SPEEDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...PERCHA
AVIATION....NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/MCLANE/HIRSCH







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