Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 300742
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER POPS TODAY THAN WE SAW ON MONDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 20 KTS IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER MATCHES OUR TYPE
5 SEA BREEZE REGIME. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GET AN EARLY START NEAR
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH DEVELOPMENT IN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN UPPER 80S AT THE COAST AND
LOW 90S INLAND.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROUNDING IT`S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING
BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

BY FRIDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND WESTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLOWLY DE-
AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES (MID 90S VS LOWER 90S) ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. INCLUDED VCTS AT ECP THIS MORNING AND AT
OTHER TERMINALS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DROP BELOW
HEADLINE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH RH ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL BUT A FEW
SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK, BUT
ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  74  92  73  92 /  40  40  50  30  50
PANAMA CITY   87  78  88  76  89 /  50  40  40  30  40
DOTHAN        91  71  92  72  91 /  50  50  50  30  50
ALBANY        92  71  93  71  92 /  40  50  40  30  60
VALDOSTA      91  72  92  73  92 /  40  40  50  30  60
CROSS CITY    90  74  91  73  91 /  50  30  50  30  40
APALACHICOLA  88  78  88  77  90 /  60  30  40  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-
     COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/CAMP



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