Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 231529
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1029 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.UPDATE...

Increased POPs across western portions of the Wiregrass for this
afternoon. Anticipating weak shower development within the next 2
to 3 hours, with scattered light showers lingering through the
afternoon hours. Expect showers to quickly dissipate this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Any rainfall accumulation with
this activity will be light. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies
with highs in the 80s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [616 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The synoptic pattern will remain fairly constant from the past few
days through today, as a large upper trough dominates the western
and central parts of the country, while deep layer ridging
stretches from our area into the western Atlantic. A stationary
front currently resides from the lower Mississippi Valley
region northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and best chances of
rain will remain focused in these areas today. After some patchy
fog early this morning, temperatures will rise into the lower-mid
80s again across inland regions, with upper 70s along the Gulf
Coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The large upper level trough mentioned in the near term discussion
will slowly push eastward this weekend, with its eastern flank
over our northwestern areas on Sunday. As this occurs, the surface
front that is currently stationary will move southeastward into
northwestern portions of our area. Increasing moisture ahead of
these features, along with the additional forcing, will lead to
increasing chances of rain showers on Sunday, with highest chances
across our western and northern areas. Isolated thunderstorms will
also be possible, and a few of these could produce strong wind
gusts due to increasing deep layer shear and at least 500 J/kg of
SBCAPE across parts of our area on Sunday afternoon. Warm
conditions will persist across our area with highs from the upper
70s to lower 80s, and lows from the lower-mid 60s.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Rain chances will continue to increase across our area at the
beginning of this period as the aforementioned front moves
southeastward across our area Sunday night and Monday. Showers
will be likely, along with some isolated thunderstorms, during
this time as PWAT values over 1.5" combine with frontal forcing
and upper level dynamics across our area. Widespread rain totals
from 0.5"-1" are expected across most of our area from Sunday
through Monday, with scattered higher amounts possible in any
training lines of heavier rain. Rain will come to an end by
Tuesday behind the front as drier air briefly moves into our area,
with a few showers possible from Tuesday night through Wednesday
as moisture surges back northward along with a warm front. Another
chance of rain will occur on Thursday as another front moves
eastward across our area under the leading edge of an upper
trough, with rain ending Thursday night behind the front. Warm
conditions will continue throughout much of this period, with
highs generally from the 70s to lower 80s. One exception could be
on Monday under widespread rain showers just behind the front,
when highs could remain in the upper 60s across western and
northern parts of our area.


.AVIATION [Through 12Z Saturday]...

Eastern terminals currently ranging from IFR to LIFR, with patchy
fog still possible throughout the forecast area. Conditions will
improve quickly after sunrise today with VFR conditions expected
by mid morning.


.MARINE...

Southeasterly winds around 10 to 15 knots will prevail today,
becoming southerly this weekend. Seas from 2 to 3 feet will
prevail across much of our area for the next few days, with some 4
foot seas possible today through the weekend for our offshore
western zones.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Despite some high dispersion values possible across inland areas
on Saturday, no fire weather concerns are anticipated through the
next several days due to high RH values across our area.


.HYDROLOGY...

Dry conditions will prevail today, with only isolated showers for
parts of our area on Saturday. Rain showers are likely from
Sunday through Monday, with widespread totals from 0.5" to 1"
likely across our area. While these amounts would not cause
flooding, scattered heavier totals and isolated flooding cannot be
ruled out.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   83  62  82  62  79 /   0  10   0  10  30
Panama City   79  63  78  66  77 /  10  10   0  30  50
Dothan        83  61  81  64  79 /  30  10  10  20  50
Albany        82  62  82  62  81 /   0  10  20  10  30
Valdosta      83  63  83  62  82 /  10  10   0  10  20
Cross City    83  63  83  63  81 /  10  10   0  10  10
Apalachicola  77  64  76  65  76 /   0  10   0  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-South
     Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Pullin
NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Humphreys
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Lahr


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