Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 250137
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
837 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Very little was changed from the inherited forecast, which still
looks to be largely on track. Low-level moisture will begin to
increase as ridging in that layer begins to erode. This should
yield mainly an increase in some low cloud layers by later
tonight, but a few isolated showers are possible over the Gulf.
Low temperatures will mainly be in the 40s, except for some low
50s along the coast.
[Through 00Z Thursday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail as
winds veer to a more easterly direction. However, an increase in
lower cloud layers is expected either late tonight or in the
morning hours. There is a small chance of some periods of MVFR
CIGS across the area, but for now we have forecast 5000 ft CIGS at
all of the area terminals.
.Prev Discussion [244 PM EST]...
.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
High pressure will remain centered well to the northeast of the
region through the short term period. Moderate easterly flow will
return Atlantic moisture to the region, resulting in scattered
afternoon cloudiness but also warmer temperatures. Expect high
temperatures to gradually warm a few degrees each day, with highs
on Thursday reaching the mid to upper 70s across the region. Only
the NAM brings a few light showers from the Atlantic late in the
afternoon both Wednesday and Thursday. With the Euro and GFS dry,
will keep rain chances 10 percent or less during the short term
.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
High pressure at the surface will weaken as a frontal system
moves into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys on Friday
afternoon, but a rather strong mid and upper level ridge across
the Eastern Gulf of Mexico will slow the southward progress of
this system and actually keep warm and dry weather in place across
the region through early Sunday. Thereafter, the models diverge a
little on whether cool high pressure will surge back into the
region from the NE or the region remains in moist southerly flow
ahead of the next developing storm system across the Plains. For
now, have trended toward a warmer solution, which keeps
temperatures several degrees above normal through the period and
rain chances low. By the tail end of the period, it does appear
like a frontal system will approach the region Tuesday night into
An extended period of advisory level easterly winds is expected
through at least Thursday night and possibly into Friday before
the large ridge of high pressure will north of the marine area
weakens. By the weekend, lighter winds and seas should return to
There are no fire weather concerns for the next several days.
With no significant rains expected for the next several days,
there are no immediate flood concerns. The lower Choctawhatchee
River will remain at action stage below Caryville for the next
On the Apalachicola River, releases from Woodruff will continue to
decrease through the week, so expect the Blountstown point to drop
below action stage early this weekend.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 45 70 55 77 57 / 0 10 10 10 10
Panama City 50 72 56 76 59 / 0 10 10 10 10
Dothan 43 67 52 73 56 / 0 10 10 10 10
Albany 42 68 52 72 57 / 0 10 10 10 10
Valdosta 47 71 55 77 57 / 10 10 10 10 10
Cross City 51 75 57 80 57 / 0 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 53 71 59 76 60 / 0 10 10 10 10
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday FOR Coastal Waters
From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.