Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 120128
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
928 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Most convection for the day has ended. The exception is a cluster of
storms north of Albany moving west and another developing over Dixie
County. These should dissipate before midnight. Fog is not expected
to be widespread tonight, but we could see patches of fog and we
have added that to the forecast for some of our AL and GA zones. The
min temp forecast looks on track.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday] All terminals are expected to have VFR
through tonight, and should be rain free by 02z. There are fog
concerns at VLD,ABY, and DHN, due to afternoon rains and already
mostly clear and calm conditions tonight. So indicated MVFR
conditions from 09z-13/14z. There is uncertainty about low cigs
overnight considering VLD,ABY, and DHN all reached LIFR
restrictions this morning, so mentioned at least SCT groups in the
TAF. Similar to today all terminals will have a chance at VCTS
after 18z Saturday.

&&

.Hydrology...
The overall flood threat is low over the next few days. Rivers
continue to run well below flood stage. As on most summer days,
brief localized flooding is possible in areas with slow moving
thunderstorms. However, large scale flooding is not expected.

&&

.Prev Discussion [217 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
High pressure aloft builds back across the southeast U.S. in the
wake of an exiting upper level trough. Surface high pressure
centered well to the east over the Atlantic will dominate the
region, allowing for weak onshore flow. Expect seasonable PoPs
each day with afternoon convection driven by the sea breeze. With
very light steering flow, there could be some isolated 2-3"
rainfall amounts each afternoon.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Next week will be a period of transition as a broad trough
associated with an anomalously deep upper level low digs across
the eastern U.S. This will push another cold front through the
southeast U.S. Depending on model choice, the front may not make
it quite through our region, or could possibly sweep through our
area with drier air punching into northern Florida toward the end
of the week. The latter scenario would be extremely rare for July,
but would not rule that possibility out due to the strong
temperature and height anomalies associated with this mid-summer
system. At any rate as the trough digs and the front approaches
the southeast U.S., we should see a couple of days, probably
Tuesday and Wednesday, with widespread showers and thunderstorms
before returning to more seasonable convection.


.Marine...
Expect light winds and low seas for the next several days. Ahead
of the cold front that will approach from the north next week,
wind and seas will show some increase beginning Tuesday.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  94  73  94  73 /  10  50  20  30  20
Panama City   76  90  75  90  77 /  20  40  20  20  10
Dothan        73  94  73  95  74 /  10  30  20  20  10
Albany        73  94  73  94  74 /  20  30  20  20  10
Valdosta      71  92  71  94  72 /  20  50  30  30  20
Cross City    72  92  71  94  72 /  30  40  30  30  20
Apalachicola  74  89  73  89  75 /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...GODSEY/DOBBS
MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL





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