Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 261703
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1203 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Surface high pressure is centered to our north with light winds from
the east over our forecast area this morning. Not far to our west,
winds from the south are increasing ahead of a developing cold front
that will move across the southeast later this weekend. Although our
area won`t start to see rain from this system until tomorrow, upper
level cloudiness will increase ahead of it as the pressure gradient
aloft tightens and increases the upper level jet and the divergence
aloft. Between the combination of our cold start to the morning and
expected increase in cloud cover through the day, particularly in
our western zones, adjusted daytime highs down slightly into the low
[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions should prevail through the
period, although some guidance is hinting at brief MVFR vsbys at
our eastern terminals overnight. Winds will be light and easterly.
Primary focus over the next 48 hours will be monitoring the flood
wave moving through the Ochlockonee River as well as the crest
moving through the Withlacoochee System.
In the Ochlockonee River, the crest wave is in between Thomasville
and Concord with Concord likely to crest in the next 18 hours about
1.5 feet below major flood stage. Downstream at the Havana gage, a
crest just below major flood stage is anticipated.
Due to increased inflows into Lake Talquin, operations there will
require additional releases at the dam which will result in flood
stages being approached again at Bloxham and at Smith Creek.
For the Withlacoochee System, around 20kcfs is working its way down
the Little River, which will result in high end minor flooding
around Hahira and downstream near the confluence with the
Withlacoochee. Elevated flows from the Withlacoochee will result in
moderate flooding below Valdosta at the US-84 gage. Further
downstream, the Withlacoochee will continue to rise at Pinetta, but
should remain in the action stage category.
Elsewhere across the region, the Choctawhatchee River will crest
later tonight at Caryville with rises on Bruce to continue into
early next week, all in the minor flood category.
The next storm system looks to deliver up to 1 inch of rain on
Sunday night into Monday. This shouldn`t have significant impacts on
area rivers, aside from slowing the rate of recession briefly.
.Prev Discussion [306 AM EST]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
Despite the fact that we just survived some record breaking December
rainfall amounts over a very short period of time, it appears that
additional unsettled weather appears on track over the SE US for the
short term period. However, the next low pressure system that will
be approaching from the west is significantly weaker than the last
system to affect our region, and as time goes on, it appears more
and more likely that fairly strong upper level ridge over the
Bahamas will both serve to weaken this system and keep the highest
rainfall totals off to our northwest. In fact, our initial
estimates of storm total rainfall through Sunday only range from
less than 0.20" across the SE 1/2 of the CWA, to between 0.75 and
1.00" across extreme NW sections of SE AL. Furthermore, if the
current model trends continue to persist, these amounts may have to
be lowered even further. Temps will also be well above normal
through the weekend, with highs on Saturday ranging from the middle
60s over SE AL to the middle 70s over the SE FL Big Bend, with highs
on Sunday in the mid to upper 70s across the entire region, which is
well above normal for this time of year.
.Long Term [Sunday night Through Friday]...
Much as in the short term period, conditions do appear a just a bit
unsettled over the extended fcst as well, but just as we mentioned
above, a lot of this unsettled weather appears to be losing its
steam as time goes on (with PoPs dropping from the 30s and 40s down
into the slight chance 20s), which is certainly good news for those
on extended Holiday breaks. Furthermore, the well above normal
temperatures show no sign of going away anytime soon, with both highs
and lows likely to average at least 10 degrees above normal, with
absolutely no freezing temperatures in sight across any parts of the
With fairly weak high pressure ridging initially centered off to our
east, generally light to moderate onshore flow with low seas will
dominate the coastal waters for the first half of the upcoming week.
Beyond this current forecast, however, a significant tightening of
the pressure pattern may occur by the middle and end of next week,
which may cause some sharp rises in winds and seas.
Recent heavy rainfall and another round of rain over the weekend
will keep red flag conditions away for the next week. With low
mixing heights and relatively low transport winds during the day on
Friday and Saturday, low dispersion values are expected.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 63 46 71 55 76 / 0 10 30 30 20
Panama City 63 52 67 59 73 / 0 20 50 40 20
Dothan 60 47 64 56 74 / 0 10 60 50 40
Albany 61 43 67 53 76 / 0 0 40 40 30
Valdosta 63 44 70 55 77 / 0 10 20 20 20
Cross City 67 46 75 56 78 / 0 10 20 10 10
Apalachicola 62 52 66 59 70 / 0 10 40 20 20