Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 261934
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
334 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Generally quiet weather is expected overnight as upper ridge
gradually breaks down ahead of trough exiting the plains. By
Sunrise, could see a few thunderstorms approach SE Alabama as the
line currently over Arkansas and eastern Texas moves southeastward.


.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

In the upper levels a trough will be over the Central U.S. on
Thursday extending from MN to GA. By Friday a ridge will build
in from the south. By Thursday morning a weak cold front will be
approaching the region bringing increased clouds, showers and
thunderstorms. This front will likely dissipate on Thursday night.
On Thursday afternoon a few thunderstorms may be strong to severe
with the weak forcing, high instability environment (CAPE near
2000 J/KG). SPC has most of the region in a marginal risk for
severe weather. Highs on Thursday will be in the low to upper 80s
(due to varying cloud cover).

On Friday southerly flow will return as the cold front dissipates
or lifts to the north. Clouds should clear out by the afternoon.
Highs on Friday will be in the upper 80s away from the immediate
coast.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

In the upper levels a ridge will be in place until Monday when a
trough stretches from IA to GA. By Tuesday near zonal flow will be
in place. At the surface high pressure will be in place until the
next system approaches on Sunday afternoon. POPs will begin to
increase Sunday night with the best chance of rain on Monday.
Highs will be in the 80s with lows mostly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...

Windy conditions are expected at all terminals through this
afternoon and especially after sunrise on Thursday. Site
(especially KECP and KDHN) could see gusts over 25 knots by the
end of the forecast period. Winds overnight should limit fog.
However, patchy low cigs cannot be ruled out, especially to the
east.

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly winds will increase this evening. A Small Craft Advisory
is in effect for all waters west of Apalachicola from this evening
through the overnight hours. Small craft should exercise caution
in the waters east of Apalachicola. Winds will decrease tomorrow
in the late afternoon. Southerly winds will increase again this
weekend with another Small Craft Advisory likely on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

While Red Flag conditions are not expected over the next few days,
strong low-level winds will contribute to increasing dispersion
values across the area, especially north of I-10.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Local rivers are currently low and holding steady. There will be a
good chance of rain tomorrow and again on Monday. West of the
Apalachicola/Chattahoochee River, forecast rain totals are 1.5 to
2 inches over the next seven days. Elsewhere forecast rain totals
are 0.25 to 1.5 inches over the next seven days with the lowest
amounts in Eastern Big Bend FL and South Central GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   65  85  68  87  69 /  10  20  10  10  10
Panama City   71  80  72  81  71 /  10  30  10  10  10
Dothan        68  83  69  88  68 /  20  50  10  10  10
Albany        64  85  68  89  69 /  10  40  10  10  10
Valdosta      61  88  67  90  70 /   0  10  10   0  10
Cross City    62  86  66  89  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  69  81  71  82  72 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday
     for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...McDermott
LONG TERM...McDermott
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...McDermott
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...McDermott



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