Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 271133
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
633 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Tuesday]...

Radar data and the morning upper air sounding have detected low
level wind shear present below 2000 feet. This wind shear will
likely be gone by mid morning or a couple hours after sunrise. VFR
conditions are expected today. In the late morning hours low clouds
will develop. A few showers are possible in Southeast Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle in the afternoon/evening timeframe. Fog will
develop overnight tonight. IFR/LIFR conditions are likely.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [317 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

In the upper levels a few minor short waves will move through the
nearly zonal pattern over the Southeast. At the surface high
pressure will remain over Eastern CONUS. Southerly flow will return
this morning increasing low level moisture. A few showers are
expected this afternoon mainly for the northwest part of the region
including Southeast Alabama and Panhandle Florida. Cloud cover will
increase by late morning. Highs this afternoon will be mainly in the
upper 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

A minor shortwave trough moving through the southeast US will
interact with a northward moving warm front to initiate showers
Monday evening mainly across SE AL and portions of SW GA. As the
front continues northward, the Tri-State region will be left in
the warm sector. South to southeast winds will draw in warm and
moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. Patchy to areas of fog will be
possible both Tuesday and Wednesday morning across the area. High
temperatures will rebound into the 80s for highs each day with a
few high temperature records being threatened.

Mid level flow becomes more amplified Wednesday as a short wave
trough moves across the central US towards the Great Lakes. The
trailing cold front associated with this system will be located
across N GA southwestward to S MS by late Wednesday afternoon.
Precipitation chances do increase Wednesday afternoon, especially
across SE AL in closer proximity to the front but the higher
chances remain to the west. Instability and shear profiles could
support strong to isolated severe thunderstorms if storms develop
ahead of the front. Strong to damaging winds would be the main
threat.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Although some instability and decent shear will remain ahead of
the front as it moves through Wednesday night, these indices are
not as strong as Wednesday afternoon due to the loss of daytime
heating and the mid level support continues to move well north of
the region. Therefore, an overall weakening trend of the
precipitation is expected Wednesday night and early Thursday
morning. Cooler conditions are expected Thursday through Saturday
as Canadian high pressure builds in. Highs will mainly be in the
60s to lower 70s with quiet conditions. Return flow sets up
beginning Sunday as the high pressure moves off the eastern
seaboard. Gulf moisture will be drawn up into the southern Plains
ahead of a southern stream mid level trough and northern stream
upper low. A cold front will enter the southeast US but remain to
our west at the end of the period.


.MARINE...

Small craft should exercise caution this morning. Winds will
diminish this afternoon as a warm front lifts northward across
the southeast United States and winds become south to
southeasterly. Winds will increase once again beginning Wednesday
night as another low pressure system approaches. Cautionary to low
end advisory conditions will be possible overnight Wednesday night
through Friday.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RH values will remain well above the threshold needed for Red Flag
conditions. Dispersion indices will be high this afternoon in Big
Bend Florida and Southwest Georgia.


.HYDROLOGY...

The Choctawhatchee River has crested in action stage at Caryville
and will continue rise through action stage near Bruce over the
next couple days, cresting about a half a foot below flood stage.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
through Thursday, but no widespread heavy rain is anticipated.
Therefore, no flooding is expected for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   77  59  84  61  83 /  10  10  10   0  10
Panama City   74  63  78  65  77 /  10  10  10  10  20
Dothan        75  59  82  63  81 /  30  20  10  10  20
Albany        78  58  84  61  83 /  20  20  10   0  20
Valdosta      80  60  85  61  85 /  20  20  10   0  10
Cross City    81  59  85  62  82 /  10  10  10   0  10
Apalachicola  72  63  78  64  78 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...McDermott
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...McDermott
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...McDermott
HYDROLOGY...Moore/Scholl


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