Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 292329
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
729 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016
.AVIATION [Through 00Z Sunday]...
VFR conditions will prevail this evening. Warm and humid airmass
in place with mostly clear skies tonight, so expect to see
MVFR/IFR conditions all terminals overnight. Guidance suggests
greatest fog potential is at the ECP terminal, so LIFR conditions
were included there before sunrise. Restrictions will end quickly
after sunrise, with VFR conditions by 14z.
.PREV DISCUSSION [422 PM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Mid level ridging will continue across the area tonight and the
center of the 850mb ridge slides sightly eastward. A few showers and
thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon with a few showers
already showing up on radar. These may linger into the early
evening. Temperatures will remain above normal tonight with lows
only dropping into the upper 60s (normal is the mid 50s at TLH).
These values will still remain below the record high minimum
temperature which is 73 at TLH.
.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
A fairly sharp, upper level ridge over the Southeast Saturday
morning will flatten somewhat later this weekend, as multiple short
wave troughs translate east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley. At
the surface, a weak cold front will approach from the northwest
Sunday night. Moisture, which is already plentiful in the PBL, will
increase somewhat in depth on Sunday, accompanied by weak Q-G
forcing ahead of the approaching cold front. This will result in a
modest increase in rain chances (30-40% PoPs), especially in south
GA and AL where the more favorable moisture profile will be.
Given the expectation of weak 0-6km bulk shear values and modest
MLCAPE, the chance of organized severe storms appears minimal. It
will be hot with summerlike temperatures and humidity, with highs
around 90 and lows in the mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...
While the global models differ on some of the details, they do agree
on a significant upper level pattern change. A deep upper-level
trough will develop over the eastern CONUS later this week. The GFS
is faster with the development of this trough than the ECMWF, and
that solution would bring an end to our rain chances early
Wednesday while the ECMWF clearing would be late Wednesday. As we
usually do, we used an average of the two solutions for this
forecast package. PoPs will be 30 to 40% Tuesday and Wednesday
(mainly afternoon and evening storms), followed by no PoPs
beginning Thursday. Warm and humid conditions will continue
through mid week, followed by a modest cooling and drying trend
A high pressure system centered off the Southeast coast will provide
light south winds across the coastal waters through the weekend.
Despite the light winds, seas will actually increase to the 3 to 4
feet range by Sunday as longer-period swell develops in the long
Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level on Sunday. Rainfall amounts for the
upcoming week are not expected to be particularly heavy or
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 68 90 68 88 68 / 10 10 0 20 20
Panama City 68 81 71 80 71 / 0 0 10 20 10
Dothan 67 87 67 85 67 / 10 10 10 30 20
Albany 67 89 67 87 67 / 10 10 10 40 20
Valdosta 67 90 68 88 68 / 10 20 10 30 20
Cross City 66 89 67 87 66 / 10 20 10 20 10
Apalachicola 68 81 70 80 69 / 0 0 0 10 10