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FXUS62 KTAE 011919
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
319 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2014

...Showers and Thunderstorms for Friday, then Clearing and
Turning much Cooler for the Weekend...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

There is a ridge in the upper levels and high pressure at the sfc.
Easterly flow is bringing in some moisture from the Atlantic. Clouds
will mostly clear out late this afternoon particularly over northern
parts of the region. No rain is expected since the cold front has
pushed well out of the region. Highs today will be in the mid to
upper 80s. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

With weak Sfc and upper level ridging still in place, the warm and
humid conditions will continue into Friday. High temps on Thursday
should climb into the upper 80s to around 90, provided there are
enough breaks in the persistent cloudiness. By late Thursday and
Thursday night, a weak warm frontal boundary will push into the
region from the SW, allowing for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly to the west. On Friday, showers and storms
will be on the increase from west to east during during the day,
with most areas in the 60-70% PoP range by the day`s end. This
convection will be generated by a powerful upper level low that will
pivot SE through the Great Lakes on Friday and Friday night, helping
to accelerate a strong cold front through our area Friday night.
Although severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time, the
chances for a few strong storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall
do appear greater today than they did yesterday. Any strong storms
will be driven by fairly high MLCAPES and good Sfc based instability
in nearly saturated soundings (PWATs > 2"), as the wind shear and
dynamic forcing will be quite meager at best. The showers and storms
will then taper off and come to an end from NW to SE during Friday
night, as winds shift to the NW behind the cold front. Low temps
Friday night will range from the middle 50s over SE AL to the lower
70s across the SE FL Big Bend.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

With the strong cold front pushing south of the region by Saturday
morning, much cooler and drier air will quickly advect in from the
west-northwest on breezy northwesterly winds. Despite plenty of
sunshine, this cool and dry air mass will limit high temps on
Saturday to the lower to middle 70s to the N and W and the middle to
upper 70s to the S and E. The ridge of high pressure behind the
front will then quickly build into the region on Saturday night and
Sunday, and remain centered in our vicinity through Monday. While
there will be significant cool air advection, the exact position of
the ridge during the overnight hours will be critical for
radiational cooling for both Sunday and Monday morning. At this
time, the model guidance is continuing to trend cooler, with lows on
Sunday expected to be in the middle to upper 40s over much of the
interior, with upper 40s to lower 50s fcst for Monday morning. High
temps will gradually moderate through the period, ranging from the
middle to upper 70s on Sunday, to the lower to middle 80s on
Wednesday. Rain chances will be very slim through the entire period,
with just a slight chance of a shower on Monday night and Tuesday as
an upper level disturbance moves through from the NW.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Thursday] Expect VFR conditions throughout the day.
Ceilings will linger until late afternoon but should remain above
3000 ft. MVFR visibilities are expected in the early morning hours
for ABY, DHN and VLD. VFR conditions will return shortly after
sunrise. Winds will be light. Winds will shift from northeasterly to
southeasterly throughout the TAF period.

&&

.Marine...

The weak high pressure system to the north of the coastal waters
will keep light winds and low seas across the marine area through
Friday morning. On Friday afternoon, winds will be on the increase
out of the southwest ahead of a strong cold front which will push
rapidly through the coastal waters on Friday night. Behind this
front, winds will shift to the northwest and increase to cautionary
levels into Saturday night. High pressure will then build back in
for Sunday and the beginning of next week, bringing a return to
light winds and low seas.

&&

.Fire Weather...

A much drier airmass will filter into the region over the weekend in
the wake of a strong cold front. Relative humidity values are
forecast to drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s both Saturday and
Sunday. However, at this time it is too low to determine if other
critical weather parameters will reach red flag conditions.

&&

.Hydrology...

Although some of the stronger storms on Friday could produce locally
heavy rainfall in excess of 2", most areas should receive average
totals of 1" or less due to the fast moving nature of the
approaching cold front. This amount of rainfall will have little
impact on our area rivers and streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  90  72  88  65 /  10  10  10  60  40
Panama City   73  87  75  87  65 /  10  20  20  70  30
Dothan        66  90  72  84  57 /  10  20  30  70  30
Albany        66  90  69  85  60 /  10  10  20  70  40
Valdosta      66  91  68  88  64 /  10  10  10  50  50
Cross City    68  88  70  87  71 /  10  20  10  40  50
Apalachicola  72  85  74  86  69 /  10  10  10  60  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...GOULD







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