Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 241132
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
732 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
.AVIATION (12z TAFs)...
VFR conditions to prevail once again today. Scattered to broken
cigs may develop this afternoon and evening, especially over
southern terminals. Winds will become northerly during the
afternoon, then shift back to the northeast this evening and
become variable overnight.
.Prev Discussion... /issued 350 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today-Tuesday)...
Weak mid/upper level ridging will remain over the region with
surface high pressure holding across the eastern CONUS. This will
continue the gradual moderating trend with a low level east to
northeast flow bringing some Atlantic moisture westward under the
subsidence inversion. This moisture will remain rather shallow
with the inversion holding around 850 mb (~5000 feet) so not
expecting any precipitation just some scattered to broken
stratocumulus/altocumulus spreading westward. Temperatures will
continue to climb a couple of degrees each day with highs this
afternoon mostly in the lower 80s and then lower to middle 80s on
Tuesday. Overnight lows tonight will range from around 50 northern
portions of the Nature Coast to the mid 60s near the coast from
around Tampa Bay southward.
MID TERM/LONG TERM (Tuesday Night-Sunday)...
A weak and mostly dry front will be moving through the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday and may cause a few showers
Wednesday afternoon mainly inland. High pressure will then build
in and ridge across the area for the rest of the period with
moisture increasing from the south as the low level easterly
flow persists. Slight rain chances will be possible mainly across
the southern half of the area Friday and Saturday afternoons.
High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s each day and
lows generally in the 60s.
VFR conditions should prevail for the next 24 hours with the
northeast flow around 10 knots or less.
Northeast to east flow will continue through the week with a weak
front moving through during midweek bringing and increase to
exercise caution, possibly advisory criteria during Tuesday night,
Wednesday night, and Thursday night.
Relative humidity values could fall below 35 percent for a few
hours across portions of Levy and Citrus counties this afternoon,
otherwise low level moisture will gradually increase through the
week with no other fire weather concerns anticipated. However,
with the increasing low level moisture will also come the
possibility of some patchy late night fog.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 80 63 83 67 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 82 63 84 67 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 80 60 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 82 61 84 67 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 80 53 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 80 65 82 69 / 0 0 0 0
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for Coastal
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/Close
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...24/Hubbard