Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 081151

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
651 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016

All stations to remain VFR through the period with the exception of
LAL and PIE which could see some MVFR ceiling and visibility
restrictions for the next couple of hours through 13Z. For the rest
of the period, winds will remain less than 10 knots with no other
aviation impacts expected.


.Prev Discussion... /issued 252 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today - Friday)...
The upper level trough will swing east through the eastern seaboard
through Friday, helping to push a surface cold front through the
Florida peninsula. This front is a little hard to define at this
time, but there is currently a steep gradient in the dew points
across the northern part of the Florida Peninsula, indicating that
the front may be just now reaching the forecast area. As the front
sinks through the area today, limited moisture will still be in
place south of Interstate 4, and could produce some light rain over
the southern half of the area this afternoon. The overrunning
pattern looks to strengthen overnight, with increasing clouds and
rain chances expanding a bit north through the Tampa Bay area and
into the southern Nature Coast counties. This pattern will continue
on Friday, with abundant clouds and 20-30 percent chances for rain,
though as surface high pressure gradually builds in from the
northwest, conditions should gradually dry out through the afternoon

The fog this morning has remained fairly limited. Tonight, lower dew
points and increased cloud cover will preclude any kind of fog

Temperatures will continue to cool off today as the front works into
the area, with highs this afternoon expected to be roughly 5 degrees
cooler than yesterday. Lows tonight will see similar drop offs, but
Friday afternoon is forecast to be significantly cooler, with highs
only topping out from the upper 50s to mid 60s.

MID/LONG TERM (Friday Night - Wednesday)...
Cool and dry start to the forecast period to quickly become warm
and humid again. Models continue in good agreement keeping fast
upper flow over much of the U.S. as pattern de-amplifies over the
Deep South while shortwaves remain over northern tier states.
Large surface high pressure area over the eastern states with cold
conditions over the area Saturday morning with near freezing temps
over Levy County and below normal temps with cold wind chill
values elsewhere. High pressure moves into the Western Atlantic
with low level flow veering E-SE with increasing temps and
dewpoints back to above normal levels Sunday into early next week.
A frontal boundary approaches the region by mid week with slight
chance POPs ahead of the system Mon-Tue with better rain chances
along the front Wed.

Some areas of MVFR ceilings are developing over the Nature Coast
and into the Tampa Bay area, and patchy fog will be possible later
in the night. Higher clouds are moving into Southwest Florida,
and should help suppress fog and low stratus there the rest of the
night. The best chance for IFR conditions will be at KLAL later
tonight through sunrise, although periods of MVFR or brief IFR
restrictions cannot be completely ruled out elsewhere. VFR
conditions will take hold by mid morning.

A cold front will push through the coastal waters today and tonight,
with strong high pressure filling in behind the front. Winds will
gradually begin to increase tonight, with a Small Craft Advisory
likely being needed by Friday morning. Conditions will start to
improve Saturday as the surface ridge settles in north of Florida.
Winds and seas are then expected to remain below cautionary levels
Sunday into early next week.

No relative humidity issues today. Drier air will filter into the
northern half of the Florida Peninsula by Friday afternoon. Relative
humidity percentages will drop into the low 30s for a few hours over
parts of the Nature Coast, and into the upper 30s as far south as
the Tampa Bay. Elsewhere, relative humidity will only bottom out
in the 50s and 60s. Relative humidity will then increase through
the weekend.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  70  52  62  49 /  10  30  20   0
FMY  76  59  65  55 /  30  40  30   0
GIF  73  52  60  48 /  10  30  20   0
SRQ  70  55  63  51 /  20  40  30   0
BKV  69  48  60  42 /  10  20  20   0
SPG  70  54  61  52 /  10  30  20   0


Gulf waters...None.


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