Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 281814
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
214 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Saturday)...
An upper level low sits just north of the four corners region with
broad troughing extending over the western U.S. This upper low will
move southeast through the period and the trough further deepens and
extends well into Mexico by Saturday evening. Upper level ridging
continues to hold over the Florida peninsula and will further build
along the east coast through the short term period. On the surface,
a broad area of high pressure near Bermuda continues to ridge
southwest across the peninsula through the end of the week and into
the weekend. This will keep a southeast through southwest wind flow
over the area which will result in above average temperatures. The
coastal counties will top out in the upper 80`s, while the inland
counties will see daytime highs in the mid 90`s on Friday and
Saturday. Rain free conditions will continue through the weekend.

&&

Long Term (Saturday Night-Friday)...
A ridge on the surface and aloft will be in place over the
the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Florida as low pressure
with a cold front trailing into the Gulf of Mexico develops
over the central U.S. Sunday.This will provide a stable and
warm atmosphere with sunny skies and temperatures above
normal. By Monday the front is over north Florida while the
ridge has retracted eastward over the Atlantic. As zonal
flow aloft sets in, the front weakens as it moves over north
central FL Tuesday bringing a chance for showers. The
frontal zone continues to weaken as the ridge builds back
toward FL Wednesday but to the west a strong short wave
creates a rapidly developing system over the southeastern
states. The model solutions diverge on timing Thursday as
the short wave approaches Florida but not as much as
previous runs. This system brings a chance for showers
Friday as a cold front and lower latitude low pressure area
near the state. Temperatures are expected to be above normal
except on days when clouds and precipitation are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
The stratus/fog from this morning has dissipated and a CU/SC cloud
is streaming in from the southeast. Even with the CU/SC clouds,
conditions are expected to remain VFR through the period. A slight
chance of a passing shower cannot be ruled out along the sea breezes
this afternoon, mostly around KRSW and KFMY. Predominant wind flow
will be out of the southwest this afternoon/evening, then becoming
more southeast overnight. No other aviation impacts expected.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico into the weekend, with generally easterly/southeasterly
winds, turning onshore each afternoon with the sea breeze. Nocturnal
surges could bring winds up to cautionary levels during the late
night/early morning hours. An approaching cold front will cause a
longer period of cautionary or possibly low end advisory level winds
Saturday night through Sunday. Winds will then relax during the
early part of the week as the front washes out across the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Rain free conditions continue across west central and southwest
Florida into the weekend. Relative humidity values will remain above
any critical level, so no red flag warning are anticipated through
the period.  With that being said, drought conditions continue
across the region and county burn bans remain in place for many
counties. Humidity values will be on the rise by the end of the
weekend and into next week. A chance of rain will occur on Monday
and Tuesday next week which will briefly reduce the risk of
wildfires.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  74  92  73  89 /  10  10   0  10
FMY  73  91  72  91 /  10   0   0   0
GIF  72  93  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  72  87  72  86 /  10  10   0  10
BKV  70  93  69  91 /  10  10   0  10
SPG  75  90  75  89 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...03/Paxton



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