Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 011841
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
241 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SO A BLEND WILL BE USED. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE (REMNANTS OF ERIKA) OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF
EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BUILD IN OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE
ATLANTIC WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON RATHER WARM AND DRY MID LEVEL
AIR IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF CONVECTION...BUT AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED WE SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES WHERE
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

TONIGHT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM SARASOTA COUNTY NORTH TO
PINELLAS COUNTY AND ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST
WHERE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH.

ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BY LATE MORNING WITH
THE CONVECTION THEN MOVING TO INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND WITH A WEAK
STEERING FLOW FAVORING SLOW MOVING STORMS...THE THREAT FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S OVER INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK...A WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION FORMS AND TREKS EASTWARD EACH AFTERNOON. FOR
THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA. LONG-RANGE MODELS THEN SHOW THIS
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WITH SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND HAVE INCLUDED BRIEF TEMPO GROUPS AT KTPA
AND KPIE WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION EXISTS...WITH VCTS SUFFICING AT
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION VFR WILL
PREVAIL. TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED WITH VCTS AGAIN BEING INTRODUCED AFTER 16Z AS MORE SHRA
AND TSRA DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL SITES AFTER 02Z
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER
16Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH (REMNANTS OF ERIKA) OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF
EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN SUPPORTING AN ONSHORE SEA
BREEZE COMPONENT ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
MAY BE HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...OTHERWISE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THIS SUMMER...AND PARTICULARLY DURING
THE LAST 5 WEEKS OR SO...HAVE BROUGHT NUMEROUS RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO MINOR OR MODERATE FLOOD. THERE ARE CURRENTLY SIX RIVER
FORECAST POINTS IN FLOOD STAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE MOST
AFFECTED AREAS REMAIN THE CYPRESS CREEK...THE DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF
THE PEACE RIVER AND HORSE CREEK NEAR ARCADIA...THE HEADWATERS OF
THE WITHLACOOCHEE AT TRILBY...AND THE MYAKKA RIVER. THE ANCOTE
RIVER IS RISING AND EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR ITS FLOOD STAGE ON
THURSDAY.

RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS OR FASTER FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  91  79  90 /  10  30  10  40
FMY  77  93  77  92 /  20  40  40  40
GIF  76  93  76  93 /  20  50  40  60
SRQ  77  90  78  90 /  20  30  10  30
BKV  74  91  74  91 /  20  30  20  50
SPG  79  90  79  90 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE



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