Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 230536
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
136 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.AVIATION (06z TAFs)...
Light east winds will prevail through sunrise with VFR
conditions. Winds will increase, becoming more southerly
with time. The seabreeze will turn winds to the southwest
early to mid afternoon for coastal terminals. Widely
scattered showers and storms will develop 18z to 20z with
the greatest chances confined to areas south of I-4. Will
maintain VCTS for KPGD/KFMY/KRSW. With lesser confidence
further north, will refrain from mention of VCTS, though it
may become necessary in later TAF issuances.

84/Austin

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 850 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

UPDATE...
East coast sea breeze pushed west and collided with west coast sea
breeze late this afternoon and evening popping scattered to
numerous thunderstorms across the coastal counties. This
convection will continue to move west northwest and out into the
gulf and eventually dissipate later this evening with mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies overnight. For Friday some drier air,
precipitable water less than 1.5 inches overspreads the region
during the morning, but by late afternoon and evening there is
some deeper moisture indicated by the models moving back in from
the southeast. Therefore, expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies through much of the day with a late start to the convection.
This should allow temperatures to climb into the lower and middle
90s like today. Isolated to scattered storms will move in from
the southeast late in the afternoon into the evening with best
chances across southwest Florida. Overall the current grids/zone
forecast look ok with no evening update planned.

AVIATION...
Scattered convection, causing some MVFR/local IFR conditions,
around Tampa Bay this evening will move west northwest out into
the gulf during the next couple of hours. VFR conditions should
prevail for the remainder of the night then with daytime heating
some areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible during mid to late
morning Friday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm
are expected from mid-afternoon through the evening on Friday, but
mainly impact only the southern TAF sites of PGD, FMY, and RSW.

MARINE...
High pressure will remain across the waters with a southeast to
south flow shifting to onshore near the coast each afternoon
through Saturday. The main marine concern will continue to be
locally gusty winds and rough seas in and near any thunderstorms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  92  78  90  77 /  10  20  30  10
FMY  93  76  92  75 /  30  20  40  30
GIF  93  76  93  75 /  20  10  40  30
SRQ  92  77  91  77 /  10  20  30  20
BKV  92  73  91  73 /  10  10  40  20
SPG  91  80  90  80 /  10  20  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/Close
UPPER AIR...63/Jillson
DECISION SUPPORT...18/Fleming



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