Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 300040
SWODY1
SPC AC 300039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF ERN NM
THROUGH WRN AND NWRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL AR THROUGH SCNTRL
MO...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN TX THROUGH CNTRL KS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN LA THROUGH ERN AR AND
SERN MO...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. OTHER STRONG STORMS WILL
POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND UNTIL MID EVENING FROM
CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

...ERN NM THROUGH WRN TX...

SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM APPEAR TO
BE IN THE PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE NM-TX
BORDER. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY /2000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE/ IN THE WRN TX WARM SECTOR WHERE
LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS ARE RETURNING NWWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE
RATES. DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AND ONLY A
MODEST CAP SHOULD PROMOTE A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS AS THE COLD POOL
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. SOME STORMS MAY EXHIBIT MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT TIMES EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER...TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO LINES WITH
BOWING SEGMENTS POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SEWD THROUGH THE TX
HIGH PLAINS.

...CNTRL AR THROUGH SCNTRL AND SERN MO...

NUMEROUS STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PROGRESSIVE MCV
CONTINUE THROUGH CNTRL ARKANSAS AND SRN MO WITH BOTH LINE SEGMENTS
AND A FEW DISCRETE CELLS REMAINING. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO
MOVE AHEAD OF THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE MCV...AND
THE LITTLE ROCK VWP INDICATES A UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY WIND PROFILE WITH
ONLY 30 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AHEAD OF THE LINE. STORMS WILL REMAIN
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AS THEY MOVE THROUGH AXIS OF MODERATE /1500 J/KG/ CAPE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE.

..DIAL.. 05/30/2015



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