Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS01 KWNS 010600
SWODY1
SPC AC 010558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN TX EWD TO
PARTS OF WRN AL...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM PARTS
OF TEXAS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
COAST STATES ON SUNDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD ALOFT IS PROGGED ACROSS THE U.S.
SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. STRENGTHENS AS
IT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS WITH
TIME.  AS THIS TROUGH ADVANCES...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY/MIDWEST WITH TIME...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN
THE PERIOD.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT -- PROGGED TO BE SWEEPING ACROSS
THE TN/LOWER MS/SABINE RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL FOCUS AN EWD-MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

...PARTS OF E TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO WRN AL...
A PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE GULF COAST/ WILL CONTINUE
STREAMING NWD AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS
THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.  DIURNAL HEATING BOOSTING
SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND LINEAR FORCING ALONG
THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN/LOW-TOPPED LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN A ZONE FROM PARTS OF
SERN TX EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN MS/WRN AL.  THOUGH MODEST AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...ROUGHLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW INCREASING WITH HEIGHT TO ROUGHLY 50 KTS
AT MID LEVELS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW STRONGER/EMBEDDED
CELLS TO EVOLVE WITHIN THE LINE.  GIVEN RELATIVELY FAST STORM
MOTION...A FEW STRONGER/DAMAGING GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE -- THUS
WARRANTING INCLUSION OF 5% WIND PROBABILITY/MARGINAL CATEGORICAL
RISK AREA THIS FORECAST -- MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME BEFORE STORMS DIURNALLY WEAKEN AFTER DARK.

..GOSS.. 02/01/2015



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.