Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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329
ACUS01 KWNS 260543
SWODY1
SPC AC 260542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms with hail and gusty winds are possible
this afternoon and evening from southwest Texas through southeast
New Mexico.

...Southwest Texas through southeast New Mexico...

Cold front will settle south through the southern High Plains
reaching far west TX by early evening. East-southeasterly
near-surface winds in the pre-frontal warm sector will advect richer
low-level moisture westward within the upslope flow regime, with
MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg likely as the boundary layer warms.
Potential exists for deeper forcing accompanying vorticity maxima
rotating through base of a synoptic upper trough to affect this
region today. Storms should redevelop over the higher terrain of
southeast NM and far southwest TX as the atmosphere destabilizes
this afternoon. Easterly low-level winds veering to southwesterly
and increasing to 35 kt at 500 mb should result in sufficient
effective bulk shear for a few supercells capable of hail and
locally strong wind gusts through early evening.

..Dial/Karstens.. 09/26/2017

$$



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