Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS01 KWNS 240552
SPC AC 240550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z


Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the Lower 48
states today.

A large-scale positively tilted upper trough over the western half
of the CONUS will progress eastward today, as an associated surface
cyclone moves from the southern High Plains northeastward into the
Midwest and a cold front sweeps through portions of the central and
southern Plains. Meanwhile, a deep-layer cyclone off of the Mid
Atlantic coast is expected to move slowly northeastward to a
position off of the northern New England coast by the end of the
period. Stable conditions will prevail across most of the CONUS, but
a few areas of isolated thunderstorm activity will be possible.

...Coastal New England...
Convective showers will likely be ongoing at the start of the period
across portions of New England, as weak elevated buoyancy develops
in advance of the cyclone that will be moving north-northeastward
off of the coast. Some of the showers may be deep enough to support
a few lightning strikes, especially over portions of eastern MA and
adjacent coastal waters early in the period.

Late this afternoon into the evening, a strengthening low-level jet
and steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak convection north of
the path of a surface low that will be moving into the Midwest. A
few lightning strikes may accompany this activity over portions of
IA and northern IL/southern WI.

...Southern CA Coast into the Southwest...
A jet max moving into the base of the departing upper trough will
support the potential for a few lightning strikes with convective
showers off of the CA coast. Some of this activity may spread
slightly inland across far southern CA. Also, showers capable of a
few lightning strikes will be possible across portions of the
Southwest as very cold midlevel temperatures spread into the region.

..Dean.. 01/24/2017

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