Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 030108
SWODY1
SPC AC 030107

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WWD
INTO NEB...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...FROM THE GREAT LAKES WWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING FROM THE GREAT LAKES CONVECTION SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA.

...SERN WI/NERN IL EWD ACROSS LOWER MI/NWRN OH...
A WELL-ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS THE
LOWER MI VICINITY ATTM...NEAR/AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SURFACE COLD
FRONT.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND EVENING DTX /DETROIT MI/ RAOB REVEAL
MODERATE INSTABILITY/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE SPREADING SEWD
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  WHILE SOME WEAKENING OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODERATELY STRONG SWLY/WLY FLOW
THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...AND ATTENDANT RISKS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO NEAR A ROTATING COMMA HEAD OR UPDRAFT.

...ERN NEB EWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO/NRN IL...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INVOF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD
FRONT FROM ERN NEB EWD ACROSS THE SRN IA/NRN MO VICINITY...AND
SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF NRN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  EXTREME INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ACROSS THE AREA -- PER BOTH
EVENING RAOBS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...WHICH WILL FUEL  ONGOING
STORM MAINTENANCE...AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  ALONG WITH THE
HIGHLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...MODERATE/WEAKLY VEERING
FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL SUSTAIN ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS -- AND
ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND A
TORNADO OR TWO AS THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE AREA SPREADS ESEWD/SEWD
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

..GOSS.. 08/03/2015




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