Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 110100
SWODY1
SPC AC 110058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF N NEB AND S/E
SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF N ND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA.

...DAKOTAS/NEB...
TWO AREAS OF SEVERE STORMS MAY BE REALIZED THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING. THE SRN ONE SHOULD EMANATE OUT OF CONVECTION ACROSS W
NEB...WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED NEAR A 1006 MB SURFACE CYCLONE.
AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING FROM W KS TO E SD...ASCENT ALONG
A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT/RESIDUAL DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CORRIDOR SHOULD
FOSTER A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING NE TOWARDS THE COTEAU DES
PRAIRIES. DEEP-LAYER VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT SHOULD
SUPPORT 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. AMIDST A PLUME OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH
PREDOMINATELY W/SWLYS BETWEEN 800-700 MB...STRENGTHENING INHIBITION
SHOULD TEMPER SWD EXTENT OF THE RISK /WITH CAPPING SAMPLED ON 00Z
LBF RAOB/ AND INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT.

A SEPARATE AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS EVIDENT CROSS PARTS OF N
ND...ALONG A SE-MOVING COLD FRONT. GREATER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT A SUPERCELL OR TWO
MAY DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF ND. WITH STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SPEED-SHEAR /FROM 700-250 MB IN 00Z BIS RAOB/...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

...MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS...
SCATTERED CELLULAR CONVECTION FROM SE PA TO CNTRL VA SHOULD DIMINISH
WITHIN A WEAKLY BUOYANT AIR MASS AMIDST NOCTURNAL COOLING AND A
STABILIZED AIR MASS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN /AS SAMPLED BY 00Z WAL
RAOB/ IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE RISKS FOR
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL SUBSIDE.
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE
AS WELL...WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT PER 00Z CHS RAOB.

..GRAMS.. 07/11/2014



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