Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 272121

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1940 UTC Tue Jun 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.


At 2100 UTC, Hurricane Dora is downgraded to a Tropical Storm as
it passes north of Socorro Island. At this time, Dora is centered
near 19.6N 111.4W moving west-northwest or 290 degrees at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained
winds have diminished to 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. The convection
associated with Dora continues to decrease, with the center now
exposed to the west of a small area of deep convection. Satellite
imagery shows an area of scattered to numerous moderate convection
within 60 nm of the eastern semicircle, with scattered moderate
convection noted within 30 nm of the west semicircle. Dora is
starting to weaken as it moves into a hostile environment of
cooler ocean temperatures. It is expected to rapidly weaken as it
tracks west-northwest through Wednesday, becoming a remnant low
by Wednesday night. Swells generated by Dora will continue to
affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico through
Wednesday, and also affect portions of the coast of the southern
Baja California peninsula over the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current
conditions. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N96W to 07N95W to
11N105W to 09N115W to 10N125W to 09N128W. The ITCZ axis continues
from 09N128W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 05N to 10N between 79W and 110W. Similar convection is noted
from 09N to 11N between 110W AND 113W.



Outside of the influence of Dora, gentle to moderate winds prevail
in the waters west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds are
off the coast of SW Mexico and across the Gulf of California.
Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California and 4-6 ft elsewhere.
Little change is expected during the next several days.


Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected across most of the
region, except for southerly winds between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands. Long period SW swell propagating into the
region will build seas of 9-10 ft tonight and Wednesday, with
the exception of the lee of the Galapagos Islands.


High pressure located north of area extends a ridge across the
waters north of the convergence zone and west of 120W. The most
recent scatterometer data indicate light to gentle winds from
10N to 20N between 120W and 130W, with gentle to moderate winds
prevailing elsewhere. Seas are generally 4-7 ft. Winds and seas
are expected to remain below advisory criteria through the
remainder of the week, with the exception of the south waters.
Cross equatorial long period SW swell will continue to propagate
across the south waters E of 120W, reaching the offshore forecast
zones between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and the waters
south of a line from 07N92W to 05N110W to 00S120W by Wednesday
afternoon, and south of a line from 08S92W to 08N110W to 07N120W
to 00N125W by Thursday afternoon. Expect building seas of 8-10
ft with this swell event. The highest seas will remain south of
the Equator.

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