Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200232
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
008 UTC Sun Aug 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Kenneth is near 16.2N 125.3W at 20/0300 UTC,
moving W, or 280 degrees, at 15 kt, with estimated minimum
central pressure of 996 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt
with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous strong convection is currently
observed within 90 nm southeast and 30 nm northwest semicircles
of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted elsewhere from 12N to 18N between 123W and 127W. Kenneth is
forecast to reach hurricane intensity by Sun morning. Refer to
National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS
headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under
WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for additional
information.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 105W north of 09N, moving
west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
was noted from 08N to 10N between 101W and 107W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N91W to 09N97W to
09N104W to 08N116W, where it loses identity. It resumes from
13N127W to 11N135W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection was noted from 07N to 12N east of 87W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 07N to 11N
between 92W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection was noted
within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough west of 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A low level trough will meander across the Baja California
Peninsula and Gulf of California through the middle of next week
with a surface low developing intermittently along the trough
over the far northern Gulf of California waters. A surface ridge
extends across the western waters. This synoptic setup will
result in a moderate NW breeze through the middle of next week
across the waters W of the Baja California Peninsula, except
becoming a fresh NW breeze each evening within about 90 nm of the
Pacific Coast of Baja California, with 3 to 5 ft seas forecast
throughout.

Gulf of California...mainly light to gentle southerly flow will
persist across the Gulf of California through early next week,
except a moderate to locally fresh breeze will surround the low
pressure center that will develop intermittently over the
Gulf waters N of 29.5N.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: fresh N drainage winds are forecast tonight
and then a brief strong surge is expected late Sun night with
seas building briefly to 8 ft around sunrise on Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: moderate nocturnal drainage forecast through
early next week.

Otherwise, light and variable to gentle NE to E flow expected N
of the monsoon trough through early Mon, while moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon
trough axis with 3 to 6 ft seas throughout.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1030 mb centered near 41N137W extends a ridge
southeast to near 22N113W. Outside the influence of Tropical
Storm Kenneth, moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is
forecast N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W.

$$
AL


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