971
AXPZ20 KNHC 092056
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu May 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 08N105W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 10N117W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N117W to 06N130W to beyond 05N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N
between 96W and 111W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 13N between 84W and 91W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure is centered well N of the area. A broad
ridge extends southward from the high across the regional
Pacific waters and weakly southeast over the offshore waters of
Baja California to the Revillagigedo Islands. Lower pressure
extends northward along the entire coast of California. The
pressure gradient between the high pressure and this area of low
pressure is generally allowing for gentle to moderate northwest
winds over the offshore waters of Baja California N of Cabo San
Lucas. S of Cabo San Lucas, ASCAT this afternoon confirmed moderate
to fresh northwest to north winds are noted. Seas across most of
the Baja waters are 6 to 8 ft, except 7 to 9 ft in northwest
swell N of Punta Eugenia. Inside the Gulf of California, winds
are light to gentle with seas 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere over the south
and southwestern Mexican offshore waters, winds are gentle to
moderate, west to northwest in direction. Winds become onshore
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas range 5 to 6 ft in mixed NW
and SW swell. Thunderstorms are noted within the Gulf of Tehuantepec
offshore waters S of 13N.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure N of the local area
will shift south and west while weakening through the weekend.
This will maintain moderate northwest winds offshore Baja
California N of Cabo San Lazaro, and moderate to fresh northwest
winds S of Cabo San Lazaro through the weekend. Winds could pulse
to locally strong south of Cabo San Lucas at night. Northwest
swell will continue to move into the Baja offshore waters through
Fri, with seas in excess of 8 ft persisting across the waters N
through W of Punta Eugenia today before subsiding overnight.
Gentle to locally moderate west to northwest winds along with
moderate seas are expected elsewhere across the S and
southwestern Mexican offshore waters through Mon night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure pattern is in place over this part of the area.
Atmospheric moisture has substantially increased as the typical
monsoonal circulation for this time of year becomes seasonally
established. Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over most of these waters, except for
isolated showers and thunderstorms E of 90W, mostly impacting
the Central American offshore waters. Some of this activity may
be accompanied by gusty winds at times and moderate to rough
seas. Frequent lighting may also accompany the activity once it
begins to exhibit a clustering pattern later today. Winds remain
light and variable and seas moderate, 4 to 5 ft in S swell.
Between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are
mainly moderate from the S to SW in direction along with seas of
5 to 7 ft in S swell.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest
winds are expected S of 09N through Fri. This will feed moisture
into shower and thunderstorm activity currently over the Central
American waters. This activity will shift slowly westward of 90W
by Fri afternoon. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail
elsewhere along with moderate seas in a south swell. Otherwise,
new southerly swell entering the region will maintain seas of 6
to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands through Sun, and build briefly
to near 8 ft Fri night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1034 mb is centered well N of the
discussion area. Broad ridging extends from it southward across
the subtropical waters between 105W and 140W. The gradient
related to this ridge is maintaining gentle to moderate northwest
to north winds N of 24N W of 120W. Seas across this area N of
25N are 6 to 8 ft in northwest swell, except 7 to 9 ft north of
27N between 120W and 130W. S of 20N between the ridge and the
ITCZ and W of 120W, moderate northeast to east winds along with
seas of and 6 to 8 ft seas in northeast swell prevail. South of
the ITCZ, gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are present
as seen in overnight ASCAT data. Seas with these winds are 6 to 8
ft due to mixed southeast and southwest swell. Elsewhere, light
to gentle variable winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds over the western part of
the tropical waters will gradually become confined to between the
ITCZ and 20N through Sun, as high pressure N of the area
gradually weakens. Seas of 6 to 7 ft with small pockets of seas
to 8 ft are expected across the trade winds zone through Fri,
then subside slightly through Sun. Northwest swell across the
Baja California Norte waters producing seas of 7 to 9 ft will
subside below 8 ft later tonight, and to 6 ft or less on Sat.

$$
AKR