Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012111
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N101W TO 06.5N118.5W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 10N123W TO 06N124W. ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 06N127W TO 03N136W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FIRST TROUGH
WHILE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS NEAR THE SECOND
TROUGH MAINLY N OF 04N BETWEEN 121W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS RIDGE COMBINED
WITH LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS SW U.S. IS GENERATING A PRESSURE
GRADIENT THAT SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS JUST W OF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL.
EXPECT FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX LATER THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OR LESS WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA AND
THE BAJA COAST BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E
TRADES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION FROM 08N
TO 11N AND W OF 137W WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN BY LATE MONDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN
TO WEAKEN. NW SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT GENERATED ON THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TRIGGERING A NEAR GALE FORCE
TEHUANTEPEC SURGE BY THURSDAY.

$$

ERA



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