Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291514
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO GULF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
LONG DURATION EVENT OF N TO NE 30-35 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM
THIS GALE EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG
PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING
IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8-10 FT FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 90W-102W AND
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 102W-115W AND FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 115-125W.
THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DECREASE TO MINIMAL THRESHOLD
BY LATE FRI...AND TO 20-25 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH SEAS IN THE
GULF SUBSIDING TO AROUND 14 FT FRI AND TO 9 OR 10 FT LATE SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA IS HELPING TO
SET OFF MINIMAL GALE FORCE FORCE THROUGH THE GULF. THESE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING...WITH NE WINDS
20-25 KT AND SEAS 8-10 FT FROM 10N-11N W OF 87W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ FROM 2N91W TO 7N130W TO 7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 10N W OF 125W. A 95-110 KT JETSTREAM IS
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ENTERING THE AREA AT 32N131W TO
20N120W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR
AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 10N W OF 125W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N122W TO
11N117W. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 17N-28N
BETWEEN 17N-120W. SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS IS SPREADING MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO N OF 15N.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATE FRI.

$$
DGS


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