Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUL 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE AT 26/0900 UTC IS NEAR
12.1N 136.1W. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES 4
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 135W AND 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP2/ WTPZ32 KNHC AND THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E AT 26/0900 UTC IS NEAR
13.4N 106.3W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 12 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC AND THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N
BETWEEN 104W AND 108W.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTER NEAR 14N126W. THE LOW CENTER IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 125W AND 126W...AND
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 13.5N127W. THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 115W/117W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD... MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N78W IN PANAMA TO 05N94W...TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...TO 10N117W...TO THE 1007 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N126W...TO 13N131W. NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO
08N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 85W AND
90W...FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W...FROM 03N TO 08N
BETWEEN 102W AND 107W...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 112W AND
115W...AND FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 123W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH HAS LED TO MULTIPLE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. TWO HAVE DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL CYCLONES
ALREADY. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN CENTRAL PACIFIC IS
CENTERED NEAR 14N159W WITH UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO 13N142W
WHERE IT REACHES THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM 30N131W TO
13N142W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 15N101W.
DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH SE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND BENEATH THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING
AN EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO OCCUR...FOCUSED ON THE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH NOTED ABOVE.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PULSE OF 20-25 KT
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 9 FT DURING EACH PULSE. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS
SHOWED SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS TO 90W.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ANOTHER PULSE OF NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT
IS EXPECTED N OF 15N IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT. SEAS SHOULD REACH 8 FT WITH THIS PULSE. AN ASCAT PASS
SHOWED NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THIS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE COVERS THE REST OF
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 115W. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AND T.S. GENEVIEVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADE
WINDS FROM 16N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 132W WITH SEAS TO 7-8 FEET.

$$
MT


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