045
FXUS62 KFFC 101546
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1146 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024


.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Forecast remains on track. High cloud debris continues to thin and
push E. Lingering stratocumulus and cumulus clouds continue to
produce partly to mostly cloudy skies across much of the area
(thickest clouds from N of CSG to N of MCN). Drier air at cloud level
will eventually allow these clouds to thin from the N, but
occasionally mostly cloudy skies will remain possible S of a cold
front which is sinking S thru the area. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms remain possible along and S of the front this
afternoon, with the best chances near and S of MCN. /SEC

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Key Messages:

 - Thunderstorms will bring widespread rainfall to central
   Georgia this morning.

 - A frontal passage today will result in cooler and less humid
   weather on Saturday.

Today and Saturday:

The initial weather concern today will be an MCS moving out of
Alabama. General thinking is that the MCS will track eastward this
morning along an outflow boundary and instability gradient left by
prior convection (from yesterday and overnight). This boundary
currently stretches from south central Alabama into southern Georgia
and is nearly stationary. Assuming storms follow this boundary, the
greatest potential for severe weather though noon today should be
over southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Any storms in
central Georgia should be elevated and working with an atmosphere
that has been chewed up and spit out by several rounds of
thunderstorms over the last 24 hours. Thus the severe weather
potential for places like Columbus and Macon should be towards the
lower end of the scale. The primary hazards with any stronger storms
would be damaging wind gusts or hail. Thunder could occur as far
north as Atlanta this morning, but severe weather is not anticipated
due to a lack of appreciable instability.

An airmass shift will occur this afternoon as a cold front sweeps
through Georgia. The front will announce it presence via the arrival
of gusty northwest winds this afternoon. Sustained winds between 10
and 20 mph are expected along with peak wind gusts in the 25 to 35
mph range. Drier air will move in behind the front and this will
bring any lingering precipitation in central Georgia to an end this
evening.

By Saturday morning a cooler and drier airmass should be firmly in
place across the Southeast. This will set the region up for a very
pleasant start to the weekend, with high temperatures in the mid to
upper 70s and low humidity (35-45%). Northwest winds should continue
in the region on Saturday. While the winds will decline some compared
to today, peak gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range are still anticipated
in the afternoon.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Key Messages:

 - Quiet weather will continue in the region Sunday and Monday.

 - Two additional rounds of widespread rainfall are probable in
   Georgia between Tuesday and next weekend.

The Outlook for Next Week:

Next week should begin with a surface high and upper level ridging
over the Southeast. Due to this pattern Sunday and Monday should
feature dry weather and average to slightly below average high
temperatures. Atlanta can expect a high in the upper 70s on Sunday
and a high near 80 on Monday.

Looking further into the upcoming week it looks like the Southeast
will be in for at least two more rounds of widespread rainfall. Both
the GEFS and EPS show consistent signals for a round of rainfall
Tuesday into Wednesday followed by a second round of precipitation
next weekend. The time of year and strength of the troughs driving
both rounds of precipitation suggest at least some potential for
stronger thunderstorms with both events. Some localized flooding
concerns could also develop by next weekend, and it is worth noting
that multiple GEFS and EPS members are indicating rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches with second potential rain event.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

A mix of IFR, MVFR and VFR conditions will occur over the region
through 18Z today. These conditions will primarily be driven by low
ceilings, though scattered showers and thunderstorms will produce
reduced visibilities at times in central Georgia. Showers and
thunderstorms should mostly end by 16Z today, though isolated showers
could pop up between 20Z today and 01Z Saturday in east central
Georgia. The ongoing variable winds in the region should become more
consistent west to northwest winds after 16Z today. Peak gusts in the
25 to 35 kt range are expected between 17Z today and 01Z Saturday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Overall confidence in the KATL TAF is moderate.
Moderate confidence in the wind forecast.
High confidence in the visibility and precipitation forecast.
Low confidence in the ceiling forecast between 12Z and 16Z today.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          52  77  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         55  77  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     46  70  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    50  77  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        57  80  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     53  76  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           56  79  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            50  77  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  53  77  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         59  79  60  83 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...Albright