Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 241956
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
256 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A weak wave was lifting northeast through northern Colorado and
southern Wyoming into western Nebraska and western South Dakota.
This will likely serve as a focus for thunderstorm development late
this afternoon, especially as it encounters more unstable air over
the western high plains. The challenge will be how far east this
activity can get once diurnal heating diminishes. The ability to
maintain elevated convection overnight looks difficult with a fairly
substantial cap in most instances through the night. So, will
maintain a low chance for thunderstorms in the western and southern
cwa, but allow that small chance to spread across the entire area
after about 10z. With only marginal, skinny CAPE and pretty dry air
below 600mb, suspect that the main threat will be strong wind gusts
if storms do move in to the area. Temperatures will remain very
warm tonight, with lows from 70 to 75.

Tomorrow still poses the better threat for severe thunderstorms but
that threat will likely be after about 19z and mainly east of
Interstate 29. The strongest thunderstorms will likely focus along a
pre cold front trough which will keep the highest probability of
severe thunderstorms along and east of a Slayton to Ida Grove line.
With CAPE values of about 2500 J/KG but shear values marginal
suspect that storms could produce hail to golf balls and winds to 70
mph. Tornadoes appear unlikely as directional shear in the low
levels is minimal. Not a zero percent threat but fairly low.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Rather quiet weather is expected as we start next week, thanks to a
large trough swinging through the Great Lakes.  This trough will
push a large area of surface high pressure into the region, keeping
temperatures near their seasonal normals through Tuesday.

A fairly strong wave will drop southeast through the Northern Plains
on Wednesday. This will bring an increasing chance of rain,
especially through the Missouri river valley, Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

The prevailing northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through the
remainder of the week and into next weekend.  Low-lvl flow continues
to look rather weak, but with a slight increase in moisture, daily
diurnal thunderstorms start to look possible.  Temperatures will
return to levels near to slightly above seasonal normals.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR through the period. The main concern will be spotty
thunderstorms with a chance late tonight along and south of
Interstate 90 but the better chance east of Interstate 29 tomorrow
afternoon.


&&

.FSD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...08


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