000
FXUS63 KFSD 162048
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
348 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
OVERALL THE EVENING SHOULD PROVE TO BE FAIRLY QUIET AS MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY REMAINS LOCKED UP TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. THE
ONGOING CLUSTER OF OCCASIONALLY SEVERE UPDRAFTS IN WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA HAS TOSSED A FAIRLY THICK BLANKET OF CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA. A MARGINAL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY EXISTS IN
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT JUST ENOUGH
THAT A SMALL POP IS STILL NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AS THE BLOW OFF FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PRETTY WEAK TO SUSPECT ANY NEW
UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA
AND STORM MOTION SHOULD TAKE THESE STORMS AWAY FROM THE CWA.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH TONIGHT WHICH WILL
KEEP WINDS SLIGHTLY MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING
WARMER READINGS IN THE MORNING AND WILL AIM FOR MID 50S AROUND HURON
TO THE LOWER 60S IN NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH THE SLIGHT COOLER AIR IN
PLACE ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER BUT STILL WARM.
UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE REGION.  WITH LOW DEW POINTS AND LIGHT
WINDS...HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES MONDAY NIGHT.
DEW POINTS START TO CREEP UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS RETURN FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASES AND GULF OPENS UP.  OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN
ELEVATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WORKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.  CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND WITH DIRTY ZONAL FLOW RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CONVECTIVE
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.  FRIDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS APPEARS TO BE NORTH AND
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS APPEARS TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AS COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY WORKS SOUTH.  BOUNDARY MOVEMENT APPEARS TO BE QUITE
WEAK....AND MAINLY DRIVEN BY CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE PREVALENT IN NORTHWEST
IA UNTIL ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE TODAY WILL BE VFR.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OF ENERGY WILL BE MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY. IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE STRONGEST PART OF THE WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO NEBRASKA. BUT WITH CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING IN
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SD AS EXPECTED...CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW TSRA AT THE KHON AND KSUX TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE KFSD TAF FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
USHER FAIRLY RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE
LEFT THE TAF SITES DRY FOR THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OUR SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES LATE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT...
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MORE AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR FOG IN NORTHWEST
IA IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF MONDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJF