Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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190 FXUS64 KMAF 062309 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 609 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 We are positioned on the relatively quiet side of a potent weather system moving into the central and northern Great Plains this afternoon and evening. This system may very well result in a significant severe weather outbreak across portions of the central and southern Great Plains off to the east. In our neck of the woods, this system is quickly mixing the dryline east of the region bringing warm and dry southwesterly winds behind it. Temperatures heat up quickly this afternoon, returning to the 90s across a bulk of the region. Any 80s remained confined to the higher elevations and northern portions of the area with 100s in the Big Bend. Unfortunately, the return of drier air, especially across the rain- starved western portions of the area, is resulting in the return of fire weather. See the Fire Weather discussion below for full details. Outside of this concern, the passing trough and potent attendant jet streak are resulting in ongoing high winds across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains where a High Wind Warning is in effect. Tonight remains somewhat mild with most areas falling into the 50s with 60s confined to the east. Heading into tomorrow sees little change as the trough becomes an upper-low over the northern Great Plains. This maintains the mostly zonal flow across the region. Temperatures may be a touch warmer for all and winds remain elevated though not as strong as today. It is still likely that strong winds develop across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, though they are expected to remain just below high wind criteria. Tomorrow night may similarly be a touch warmer than tonight as well. -Chehak && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Wednesday, and upper trough is forecast to be over Nebraska/Kansas, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under zonal-to-southwest flow aloft. At the surface, increasing westerlies will shunt the dryline/moisture well to the east. The NAM12 develops a modest mountain wave signature, suggesting a few hours of marginal high winds in the Guadalupes. These winds will add a downslope warming component to temperatures, resulting in afternoon highs 4-6F above normal. This will combine with single-digit RH and increasing ERCs to provide another critical fire weather day over the higher terrain out west. See Fire Weather Discussion below for more details. Wednesday night, a secondary trough will begin developing over Utah, closing off as early as 12Z Thursday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to backdoor the area after 06Z, making it as far as the Pecos by 00Z Friday. This will cool highs along and behind to front to AOB normal, with temperatures south of the front similar to Wednesday`s. Friday looks to be the coolest day this forecast as full frontal effects set in. Highs should come in only ~ 8-10F below normal. As surface winds veer around to easterly, upslope flow develop a little convection south. Saturday through Monday, a gradual warming trend sets in but, absent significant ridging, not a strong one. In fact, by Monday afternoon, highs are forecast to recover to right around normal at best. Saturday, the secondary trough approaches, developing convection over the east and offering perhaps the best chances of rain this forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 VFR will prevail through the period. Gusty west winds will subside over the next 1-3 hours. Light winds overnight and Tuesday morning will increase again by afternoon, but mainly affect KCNM, KHOB, and KPEQ. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Critical relative humidity is forecast every day through Thursday. Tuesday, single-digit relative humidity is forecast everywhere but the far eastern fringes of the FWA. ERCs will be increasing, w/the 90th percentile bulls-eyed at Van Horn. Increased 20-ft winds over Southeast New Mexico will yield extreme RFTIs (7-8) over the area currently in the RFW. The evening or mid shift will upgrade the watch as soon as the current warning expires. Wednesday, SGPWO CIPs suggests the most critical fire weather day this forecast as 20-ft winds increase across the higher terrain clear down through the Big Bend, resulting in extreme RTFI over much of the higher terrain, where no rain has fallen recently. We`ll again leave it up to subsequent shifts to issue the watch for this. Thursday, a cold front backdoors the FWA as far as the Pecos by late afternoon, confining critical fire weather conditions to south of the front. A smaller RFW or a strongly-worded RFD may be needed to cover this. Much will depend on frontal progression. Friday through the weekend, critical fire weather conditions look minimal due to cooler temperatures and a chance of convection. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 56 92 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 53 91 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 65 97 66 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 61 96 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 55 82 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 51 88 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 49 86 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 57 92 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 58 92 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 57 94 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills- Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...91 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...29