712
FXUS64 KMAF 191914
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
214 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

WV imagery shows that the upper ridge has moved off to the MS
Valley, leaving zonal-to-southwest flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico. Leeside troughing will strengthen this
afternoon, increasing westerlies over the higher terrain, and
return flow in the east. Downslope warming, maximum insolation,
and increasing thicknesses will yield the first widespread triple-
digit day of the spring.

Tonight, a 45+kt LLJ is set to develop, sharpening up a dryline
mid-CWA and advecting Gulf moisture into the area. Despite mostly
clear skies, these increased winds/moisture will keep overnight
minimums 6-8F above normal.

Monday, surface winds aren`t expected to be as hardy as today.
Despite increasing thicknesses, a lesser downslope warming
component will result in afternoon highs just a bit cooler than
today`s. In fact, temperatures will be close enough to today`s to
just extend the current heat advisory through Monday afternoon.

Monday night, a slightly stronger LLJ is forecast to redevelop
under increasing cloudiness, resulting in the warmest lows yet
this spring...~ 10-12F above normal, as many areas remain 70 or
above.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

An upper trough moving northeast from the Desert SW passes to the
north Tuesday, tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in
increased westerly downsloping winds, but also increased clouds.
As increased clouds limit diurnal heating, highs Tuesday remain
above average but cooler than Monday, mainly 90s, 80s confined to
the westernmost and northernmost SE NM plains as well as higher
elevations of West Texas, and triple digit heat only encompassing
far eastern Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and near the Rio
Grande. 110+ degree readings continue to be confined to the Big
Bend. Given short and long term numerical guidance and increased
clouds, went with 1:1 blend of NBM 25th and 75th percentile for
highs Tuesday. Increased clouds limit radiational cooling Tuesday
night, which along with persistent southerly flow, keep lows 5 to
10 degrees above average and mainly in the 60s aside from 70s from
the southeastern Permian Basin and eastern Stockton Plateau into
the Rio Grande, and 50s over the northernmost SE NM plains in CAA
behind a cold front. This front moves south through Wednesday.
Atop slightly cooler and more humid air behind this front, another
trough moves in from the west, providing additional lift east of
the dryline for a few storms across the far eastern Permian Basin
Wednesday evening into Thursday. However, even with cooler and
more humid air behind the front, moisture in low levels will not
be sufficient for more than a few hundredths of rainfall where
storms occur. Highs Wednesday remain 5 to 10 degrees above average
in the upper 80s and 90s, 100s confined to the Rio Grande. Lows
Wednesday night stay warmer than average but will be cooler than
Tuesday night. Thursday into Friday, ridging builds back in the
wake of the trough, with highs in the 90s, 80s over the highest
elevations, 100s across parts of the Stockton Plateau, and 105+
readings near the Rio Grande. We`ll see the same story but warmer
for highs Friday. Lows Thursday and Friday nights will be similar
to Wednesday night. As ridging persists, more widespread triple
digit highs are forecast for southeastern parts of the area this
weekend, with lows remaining warmer than average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Aside from a few cu
invof KMAF this afternoon, CAVU conditions are expected. Gusty
southwest surface winds this afternoon will decrease after
sundown, but remain elevated overnight, courtesy of a 45+kt LLJ.
Light southwest surface flow is anticipated Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

For the past several weeks, little to no rain has fallen
southwest of the Pecos River, with spots along and west of the
Trans Pecos not seeing much measurable rainfall in the past
several months. With upper level ridging remaining over the area
into the middle portion of next week, along with a dryline that
sharpened this weekend remaining mainly east of the area, sunny
skies, min RH well below critical 15% level and down into the
single digits over SE NM into the higher elevations of West Texas
and down into the Big Bend, and critically dry fuels with ERCs at
or above 90th percentile and up to the 97th percentile in the Big
Bend will all contribute to fire weather concerns. Poor overnight
recovery and southerly flow maintaining warmer than average
overnight temperatures will also maintain elevated to critical
fire weather conditions from Southeast New Mexico into the Big
Bend. However, light 20ft winds today through Tuesday limit fire
weather concerns somewhat. RFTIs at or above 4 will be present for
much of the area north of the Rio Grande valleys today, but will
be mainly over the SE NM plains Monday. As an upper level trough
moves northeast out of the Desert SW and passes to the north of
the area, a tightened pressure gradient results in increased
westerly downsloping winds Tuesday. However, increased clouds
developing from lift associated with this trough limit diurnal
heating and lead to cooler temperatures over much of the area,
with RFTIs remaining capped below Red Flag criteria. With a cold
front and another trough moving into the area Wednesday into
Thursday, cooler temperatures and increased clouds will decrease
but not eliminate fire weather concerns, as temperatures still
remain above average, low level moisture scant, and little to no
rainfall expected even where storms occur. Storm chances will be
confined to the eastern Permian Basin, so we are not expecting
fire starts from dry lightning over the westernmost portions of
the area with the driest fuels, although fire starts from
lightning are possible in the eastern Permian Basin. In wake of
the cold front and upper trough, upper level ridging builds in
again, with another warming and drying trend increasing fire
weather concerns into next weekend, with elevated to critical
conditions indicated over the SE NM plains into northern Culberson
County.

With min RH as low as the single digits, an early season heatwave
with highs 10 to 15 degrees above average under sunny skies, and
critically dry fuels with ERCs around the 90th percentile over
westernmost regions and as high as the 97th percentile over the
Big Bend, a Fire Danger Statement is in effect this afternoon
through early evening from Southeast New Mexico down into the
higher terrain of West Texas and the Big Bend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               69 101  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 63 100  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   70 103  75 103 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            68 103  71 102 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           65  90  67  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    62  97  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    57  96  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     67 100  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   68 100  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     65 103  68  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Chisos Basin-Davis
     Mountains-Lower Brewster County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...44