878
FXUS64 KMAF 101708
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1208 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The first piece of the rain puzzle is getting into place as a cold
front moves through the Permian Basin early this morning. The front
will move west pushing up against the mountains today, then continue
on to far West Texas tonight advecting in plenty of low level
moisture. This moisture and the higher terrain west of the Pecos
River will help widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop in the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos this afternoon with
the help of daytime heating.

Convection increases overnight as an upper low over the western
United States sends an upper level disturbance towards West Texas
and eastern New Mexico. Models are in good agreement that the
disturbance will cause showers and storms to initially develop from
southeastern New Mexico down through the Trans Pecos, then spread
eastward into the Permian Basin during the day and continuing into
the night before moving into the Big Country. Precipitable water
values are very high for this time of year meaning there is enough
moisture to present a flash flooding threat. However the quick
movement of the disturbance and the scattered nature of the
convection is not favorable for a widespread heavy rainfall event
like a slow moving front or MCS might provide. Therefore any
flooding should be localized in nature. Forecast soundings do not
show impressive instability so there does not appear to be a
significant severe weather threat either though this time of year
you can never rule a few storms could drop marginally large hail.

Persistent cloud cover and weak cold air advection will keep temps
unseasonably cool today with highs in the 70s everywhere but the Big
Bend. Throw in increasing rainfall Saturday and temperatures cool
further with highs struggling to get out of the 60s in southeastern
New Mexico and the Permian Basin. Not bad for the middle of May.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The upper low that will have brought some rain to the area will
eject out over the Plains late Saturday and into Sunday morning.
Rain chances gradually diminish over the course of Sunday and sit
near zero by early Monday. Temperatures stay in the 80s for most on
Sunday and Monday with 90s and even low 100s across the Rio Grande
and Big Bend. Upper level ridging takes hold for Tuesday and
Wednesday bringing temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s for
most. The end of the coming week sees rain chances rebound for the
eastern half of the CWA where moisture return looks to be better.
Much of this will be determined by the track of the next low that
looks to move through the area.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Messy TAFs are on tap for the next 24 hours, as post-frontal
stratus lingers. Surface winds will slowly veer over the next 24
hours, picking up a little Saturday as return flow resumes. Cigs
will come down overnight, w/NBM suggesting a few hours of LIFR
KCNM, IFR KFST, and MVFR other terminals. All terminals should be
MVFR by the end of the forecast period. Convection will be
possible, but this is all back-loaded to the end of the forecast
period, and too far out for a mention attm. We`ll start trying to
pinpoint this next issuance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               78  62  69  60 /  10  20  80  50
Carlsbad                 75  62  73  59 /  10  50  50  40
Dryden                   80  67  80  68 /  50  20  40  50
Fort Stockton            76  65  77  65 /  50  30  60  40
Guadalupe Pass           68  58  71  57 /  10  40  50  30
Hobbs                    74  58  66  57 /  10  40  70  50
Marfa                    81  56  83  53 /  20  40  60  30
Midland Intl Airport     75  62  67  61 /  10  20  80  40
Odessa                   75  63  68  62 /  10  30  70  40
Wink                     79  61  74  60 /  20  40  70  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...44