Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 031135
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
535 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MEANWHILE...REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS IS DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 14-15Z. THE DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. THUS...WILL
NOT MENTION VCSH/VCTS FOR THOSE TAF SITES. ACROSS THE EAST...COULD
STILL SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STORMS WITH +RA. MODELS
SUGGESTING THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WITH HAVE DIMINISHED OR
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RECENT PERIOD OF ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND
TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD NEW MEXICO FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT MAINLY
AFFECTING THE WEST TODAY. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS COULD SEE
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO OUR WEST...IN CONTRAST
TO THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME. STILL UNSURE WHETHER MOISTURE
OVER THE WEST WILL MIX OUT ENTIRELY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH 00Z
SOUNDINGS TO OUR WEST INDICATE DECENT MID LEVEL DRIER AIR...AND
TPW PRODUCT VALUES TO OUR WEST SLOWLY DECREASING. THEREFORE
HOLDING ONTO THE ISOLD POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTDVD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE NORTHEAST...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...SHUTTING DOWN RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLD AT BEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
WEDNESDAY THE WARMEST DAY. THAT SAID...WATCHING ANOTHER STREAM OF
MOISTURE TO OUR WEST NOSE TOWARD THE CA COAST...BUT SO FAR THIS IS
PREDICTED TO BE SHUNTED TO OUR NORTH.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST BEGIN TO
FALL BELOW AVERAGE...AS MOISTURE REMAINS FORECAST TO RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST
AND THE UPPER HIGH CENTER RELOCATES TO OUR EAST. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE GFS HINTS THE MOISTURE TAP MAY BE DIMINISHED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A GENERAL DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY SLOT IS SLOWLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK JET...STORMS CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. LATER TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO NUDGE INTO
WESTERN NM...THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD WANE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND BEST STORM CHANCES WILL
BE ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. MODELS SHOW DEWPOINTS DRYING
OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S ACROSS WESTERN NM...BUT GIVEN
RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND EXPECTED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION TODAY...SUSPECT
THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH. THUS... THE DEWPOINT...AND HENCE
RH....FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS...
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. SIMILAR READINGS TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST.

THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ON TUESDAY...AND LINGERS AROUND
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH WOBBLES OVERHEAD AND DISTURBS THE
TYPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN. DUE TO THE DRYING
TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...AND HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUES-
THURS. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER EACH DAY...BUT MINIMUMS BETWEEN 14 AND
24 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
WILL BE COMMON. WIDESPREAD HAINES VALUES OF 5 WILL ALSO
RETURN...WITH 6 HAINES PREVAILING ON THURSDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALI COAST. THUS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE...SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. BEST STORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS WESTERN NM
AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL HAVE A GRIP ON THE EAST. BUT BY THE
WEEKEND...THE MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MUCH OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW POCKETS OF POOR ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE NE PLAINS DUE TO VERY LOW TRANSPORT
WINDS.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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