Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 220256 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
756 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Expiring and cancelling all wind highlights. Winds have subsided
pretty quickly this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...439 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Moderate to strong winds will linger into tonight in many locations.
A second cold front is moving south across the eastern plains, and
has just passed KTCC. Lingering snow impacts will favor north
central and northeast areas near the CO border through this evening
as precipitation wraps around the exiting upper level low pressure
system. Occasional IFR cigs and vsbys with mt obscurations through
06Z. Otherwise VFR conditions. Less wind and more sunshine Monday,
but cold.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers will taper off this evening but some areas of blowing snow
will persist overnight over far northeast New Mexico as gusty winds
are slow to diminish. It will be colder tonight overall with wind chill
values over the far north central and northeast ranging from 5
degrees above zero to around 10 degrees below zero. Winds diminish
further Monday although it will be slow to warm up. Monday night may
be the coldest of this week with lows about 5 to 15 degrees below
average. By Thursday, westerly breezes develop and temperatures
return to above average values. Turning cooler again Friday and
Saturday with gusty winds but little to no precipitation expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low circulation rapidly translating to the northeast of New
Mexico this afternoon. Although snow showers persist over some of
the western and northern high terrain, thinking much of them will
dissipate after sunset. The main area where snow may persist this
evening looks to be in the wrap around which would affect the Sangre
de Cristo mts as well as portions of the northeast closer to the CO
border, where the northwest wind may well be strongest overnight.
Therefore held onto some area of blowing snow after midnight near
the CO border. Don`t have much confidence in the lingering High Wind
Warning zones with the colder air pretty much covering the majority
of the forecast area, but some of the higher terrain that would
normally blow harder in northwest flow is contained in the warning
area, so will let it ride for now.

Monday will see diminishing winds but cool, and below average
temperatures. High clouds may keep help retard any warmup, but
Monday night may be the coldest of the week. Tuesday and Wednesday
will be warmer and tranquil. Thursday could start to see some
westerly breezes, when high temperatures finally warm to above
average. Friday and Saturday will turn cooler again with gusty
winds, but any precipitation may only over occur over the northern
high terrain and it doesn`t look like much at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level low pressure system centered over SE CO will eject
slowly northeastward through KS this evening with wrap around snow
lingering over N central and NE NM.  The storm system steered the
jet stream over NM as the upper low passed eastward along the CO/NM
border today, and the tail end of the jet streak will linger over
our state through the evening. As a result, strong surface winds
will linger through the evening in a lot of places, especially
across the northeast, where a back door cold front will plunge
southward.

After high temperatures a few to around 15 degrees below normal
today, readings will generally trend upward through Thursday.
Humidities will generally fall through this period, especially
Monday.  Winds will also weaken in the wake of the exiting storm
system. A dry upper level trough will then cross the Desert
Southwest Tuesday and Tuesday night, before a ridge of high pressure
crosses Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Another upper level trough will approach on Thursday, causing
southwest winds to become breezy again, especially across the east.
Critical fire weather conditions will be possible Thursday across
the Ern plains along and north of I-40, where Haines will reach 5 as
temperatures soar up to 12 degrees above normal and humidities
crater near and below 15%. The trough will pass eastward over the
central Rockies on Friday, when it will steer another Pacific front
across NM from the west with breezy to windy conditions and a chance
for snow mainly in the northern mountains near the CO border.

Areas of poor ventilation will develop on Monday, then become more
widespread Tuesday and Wednesday, before some improvement across
southern and eastern areas on Thursday as winds begin to strengthen
on Thursday. Much improved ventilation is expected Friday. Northwest
flow looks gusty on Saturday in the wake of Friday`s upper level
trough, except west of the Continental Divide, where areas of poor
ventilation will return.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ501-503-504-506>508-511-518>522-525-528-529-532-537-538.

High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ533>536.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for the
following zones... NMZ512-515-516-527.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ510-513-514.

&&

$$



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