Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXAK67 PAJK 191350
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
550 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH SPINS OVER THE WESTERN GULF THE
FIRST BIG WAVE IS CURRENTLY EXITING SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE WHILE THE NEXT BIG WAVE IS GETTING
ORGANIZED WELL TO THE SOUTH. IMPACTS OF FIRST CIRCULATION ARE
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND RAINFALL. CURRENTLY MAJOR RAINFALL IS
CONFINED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS. WINDS GUSTING TO 45KT IN SOUTHERN
LYNN AND CROSS SOUND WHILE MOST AREAS ARE SEEING SLIGHTLY LESS WIND
BUT INTO GALE CATEGORY FOR SOME AREAS...CHATHAM AND LYNN AS WELL AS
STEPHENS AND PORTIONS OFFSHORE.  IMPACTS FROM THIS FIRST WAVE WERE
OVERALL A BIT LESS THAN ANTICIPATED FOR RAIN. ALSO WE ADDED SHOWERS
WORDING TO TODAY`S FORECAST AND BROUGHT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH TODAY BASED ON OBSERVED STRONG
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND MODEL FORECASTS OF CAPE. HEAVY RAIN
HAS A GOOD SHOT AT IMPACTING THE FAR SOUTH BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND SPREADING NORTHWARD. SECOND WAVE TAKES A MORE FAVORABLE TRACK
FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF THE GFS/EC/GEM FIELDS
SEEMED APPROPO FOR THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE FEATURES MORE
CONSISTENT...AND SIGNAL A STRONGER SECONDARY LOW/FRONT SYSTEM WHOSE
IMPACTS WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WE ADJUSTED
WINDS FOR THIS SYSTEM STRONGER FOR ICY STRAIGHT, CROSS SOUND AND
FREDERICK SOUND OTHERWISE THE INHERITED WINDS SEEMED CONSISTENT
WITH MODEL FEATURES AND LEAD TO THE HIGHLIGHTS SUMMARIZED BELOW.

FOR HAZARDS/ADVISORIES WE HAVE GALES TODAY FOR MOST INNER CHANNELS
ON THE NORTH SIDE...SCA OFFSHORE AND THE REST OF MOST OF THE INNER
CHANNELS TODAY. STRONG WINDS HIGHLIGHT ZONES FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS EXCEPTING YAKUTAT. THESE GENERALLY ARE TRENDING NORTH AND
DIMINISHING LATE. MEANWHILE FOR THE SECOND LOW WE HAVE GALES BY
TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERNMOST INNER CHANNELS AND SCA
WINDS SPREADING NORTHWARD ELSEWHERE. GALE IS INCLUDED FOR CLARENCE
STRAIT TONIGHT ALSO AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OFFSHORE BY 12Z SAT.
STRONG WINDS ARE WORDED FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. FOR THIS SHORTTERM
PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AS THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
SPREAD IN STRENGTH FOR THE SECOND LOW APPROACHING TONIGHT FOR THE
SOUTH. HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF WITH THIS FALL-LIKE SYSTEM
AND WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE FLOODING PROBLEMS...EG JUNEAU AREA...AT
THIS TIME BASED ON CURRENT MODEL FIELDS.


.LONG TERM...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA PERSISTS AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF
IT DIGGING THROUGH THE BASE ON SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN TURNING
NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE TROUGH
LOOKS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVE INTO THE WEST PORTION OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVING ABOUT THE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FEATURE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF
THEN IN THE NEAR FUTURE. MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SUGGESTING THAT A DEEP FALL STORM WITH SURFACE LOW
LOWERING IN THE MID 960S THE WILL DRIVE NORTH ALONG THE OUTER OF
THE PANHANDLE TO THE NORTHEAST GULF POCKET. WITH THIS LOW MOVING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AM EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL
TOTALS AS THE LOW WILL HAVE TAPPED SOME

FOR THE MID TO THE END OF THE WEEK FORECAST THE JETS STREAM WILL
BE CARRYING THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF REGION
LEAVING SOUTHEAST ALASKA OUT OF THE MAIN FLOW PATTERN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

IN OVERVIEW RAIN AND SOME WIND THROUGH MONDAY SWITCHING OVER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

BRIEF GLANCE AT THE HYDROLOGY PICTURE SHOWS MOST RIVERS AND
STREAMS BELOW BANKFULL BY A COUPLE OF FEET AND WHILE THE RAINS
WILL INCREASE THE WATER LEVELS NOT ANTICIPATING FLOODING ISSUES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ024.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ020>022-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>033-036-041-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-034-035-042-051>053.

&&

$$

WESLEY/BEZENEK

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