Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 032322
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
722 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE MESO-ANALYSIS STILL INDICATED A STRONG PRECIPITABLE WATER
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...FROM 1.3 INCHES IN THE UPSTATE TO
OVER 2 INCHES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS TO THE
COASTAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST POPS THERE.
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF LOWS CLOUDS AND FOG LATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY SET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR LESS
TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER WEDNESDAY. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND THE DRIER AIR WILL YIELD HOT
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN FEATURES A ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WITH THE LACK OF ANY UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
TO ENHANCE ANY MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT MAY INITIATE STORMS.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY AND
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. HIGHEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE
ON FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ACTING
ON THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. GFS INDICATING UPPER
RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE
LOWER 90S END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT WIND
SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF LOWS CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE NAM MOS AND HRRR PLUS CONDITIONS LAST
NIGHT UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE TIMING OF DEVELOPING MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND 14Z. STRONG HEATING MAY HELP
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE THE CHANCE WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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