Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 261149
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
649 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS MORNING WILL END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA STILL EXPECTED END LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS...AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
PWAT LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON.

LOW TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND COASTAL
GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE REMAINED BETWEEN
IFR/MVFR ALL NIGHT...BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
CSRA. 88D REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
STRETCHING FROM OCONEE COUNTY SC SOUTHWARD TO THE MACON GA AREA. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ACROSS
THE CSRA AROUND 9 AM...THEN THE MIDLANDS BETWEEN 11 AM UNTIL 1 PM AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW CENTER IS
CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SC AND WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY
18Z. HOWEVER...STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY.
THE REAL CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL JET
AROUND 30 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




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