Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 020152
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
952 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA...
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS. INDICATIONS
OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA MOVING NORTHEAST...AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...ALONG COASTAL
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR FA.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR
FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT CHANCE
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK. TEMPERATURES WARMING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS SIMILAR WITH 00Z ECMWF WITH SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY MONDAY BUT ECMWF
WEAKER AND MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB FROM ABOUT 09Z THROUGH 14Z.
BEYOND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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