Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 230828

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
428 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

A cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms
late tonight through early Tuesday, followed by cooler
temperatures for mid week. Fair with a warming trend late week.
Next weather system may approach by next weekend.


Early this morning...Scattered rain showers will continue
across the forecast area this morning as isentropic lift and
moisture increase. Low temperatures are on track in the middle
60s to around 70.

Today...A southern stream closed low will lift from the mid
Mississippi Valley region toward the lower Tennessee/Ohio
Valley region today eventually merging with the broad upper
trough. A cold front will approach the region from the west and
begin moving into the Central Savannah River Area late this
afternoon. Increasing moisture and isentropic lift will support
showers during the day. Precipitable water values approach 2.0
inches so rainfall may be heavy at times. Expect most locations
to see around 1 inch of rainfall. Most of the forecast area has
been outlooked by the Storm Prediction Center in a slight risk
for severe weather. Damaging winds are the primary threat while
a brief tornado may also be possible. Clouds and rain during the
day are expected to hinder diurnal heating, ultimately limiting
instability. However, shear appears strong so expect convection
to be organized. Most of the high resolution models show a line
of convection moving through the area during the late afternoon
and early evening.

With rainfall and clouds through the day, a small diurnal range
of temperatures is expected with highs only about 5 degrees
higher than morning lows, in the lower to middle 70s.


May still have some lingering showers and thunderstorms early
this evening, with the highest rain chances across the eastern
half of the cwa. Rain chances will continue to diminish from
west to east through the night tonight as the cold front moves
through and drier air begins to move in. The main cold front
will be pushing through the forecast area overnight, and will be
east of the area by Tuesday morning. Overnight lows in the low
to mid 50s across the western cwa, while eastern counties will
only fall into the upper 50s tonight. Drier and cooler weather
will prevail behind the front through Thursday night.
Temperatures on Tuesday will still climb into the 70s as the
coldest air still lags behind the main front somewhat. However
by Wednesday, the cold air will be settling over the region.
Highs on Wednesday will only reach the lower to middle 60s. Lows
Wednesday night will fall down to around 40. There may be some
slight moderation of temperatures on Thursday and Thursday night,
but only by a few degrees.


Temperatures will moderate more into the weekend as the region
gets on the backside of the surface ridge. Warmer and moister
air returns for Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, another cold
front will be nearing or moving through the cwa, bringing a
return to colder temperatures for the latter portion of the
weekend and into early next week.


Widespread restrictions expected for a majority of the TAF

Scattered rain showers will continue through the early morning
hours as moisture and isentropic ascent increase across the
area. Most of the showers should be light enough for
visibilities to remain VFR or MVFR early this morning. Ceilings
have already deteriorated to IFR, but may return to MVFR after
daybreak. Expect showers to increase in coverage and intensity
through the day with potential for thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. A cold front will cross the area during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Models show drier air beginning to
push into the area from the west by 00Z with the line of showers
and thunderstorms gradually pushing east. Expect decreasing
clouds from the west toward the end of the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread restrictions expected to
continue through tonight as a cold front crosses the area.




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