Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 221750
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
150 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK RESULTING IN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 16Z...COLD FRONT SETTING UP IN THE LOW COUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS. CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST GEORGIA.

MODELS INDICATE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LIFT LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE AND RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET OVER NORTH
CAROLINA. LATEST HRRR/RAP AND LOCAL WRF SUGGEST MORE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD AREA FROM EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL RAISE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST POPS SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE
STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT. MODERATE INSTABILITY POSSIBLE...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. LIGHT QPF EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH MIDLANDS WHERE AIR MASS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
MORE STABLE. COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO
THE LOW 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL DIG A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WHICH CUTS OFF AND REMAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OVER THE SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW HAVE A NW/SE GRADIENT IN
THE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SE CWA IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE.
LOWER POPS TO THE NW IN THE 10-20 PCT RANGE. LIMITING FACTOR FOR
PRECIP IS DRIER AIR ALOFT. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS PARKED TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE. ALOFT THE WESTERLIES LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH AND A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS OVER THE SE US. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE. RESULT IS POPS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE. WITH INCREASED CLOUDS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
AND MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE.


&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN CSRA DUE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIFT NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA...POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY INTO THE CAE/CUB AND OGB TERMINAL AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION...AGS/DNL AND OGB THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTION
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH STRATUS /STRATO-CU DUE
TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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