Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 231035
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
635 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler temperatures and fair weather expected through Friday as
high pressure settles into the region. Warming temperatures and
increasing moisture expected this weekend as a storm system
moves from the Midwest toward the Ohio valley. This will result
above normal temperatures and a chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface ridge centered to the north across the Middle Atlantic
region extending into the Carolinas. Upper ridge to the west and
resulting northwest flow aloft. Air mass dry with dew points in
the mid 20s. Cold advection today should result in temperatures
about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Models suggest some low
clouds at times this afternoon trapped under subsidence
inversion.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some potential for frost late tonight and early Friday morning
as low level moisture may increase slightly due to weak
isentropic lift...although strongest moisture flux in the
Upstate region or north Georgia. Radiational cooling is possible
if cloudiness is limited. Coolest region expected to be in the
Pee Dee. Stayed close to mos guidance which has mid 30s north of
Columbia. The high will begin to slowly weaken and shift
slightly east Friday, providing some moderation in
temps/dewpoints. Upper ridge over the area and strong subsidence
expected. Temperatures should warm back into the low 70s. Weak
isentropic lift and moisture recovery may provide some stratus,
possible fog, late Fri nt/Sat morning. Deep low in the Midwest
will be moving slowly east-northeast Saturday. Moisture
continues to increase Saturday with upper ridge weakening and
shifting southeast...but lift mainly west of the region and
expect any showers to remain west of the region through the
afternoon. Continued warming trend with temperatures rising into
the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Closed upper low to shift NE from the Central Plains to the Great
Lakes, with upper trough axis approaching our region Sat nt and
moving through Sunday. Best upper dynamics to remain to our
north, but chance pops with possible thunderstorms expected in
weakly unstable air mass. Another upper trough/front appears
will move through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Dry high pressure will ridge over the area today and tonight.
Expect NE-E winds generally around 7 to 10 kts today. Some high
clouds will continue to stream across the area. Some patchy fog
may be possible early Friday morning as the high pressure moves
offshore and provides a more easterly flow from the Atlantic,
but confidence is low at this time and will not mention in the
TAFs.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Saturday and
Sunday mornings in fog and stratus associated with an onshore
flow. Deeper moisture and a frontal system near the area may
help support scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated
restrictions Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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