Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 202316

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
716 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Warm high pressure over the region will weaken overnight then a
cold front will cross the area Friday morning. An upper-level
ridge over the southeastern states will weaken allowing an upper-
level trough to cross the region Friday through Saturday. Much
cooler and drier air will move in behind the front for the


Record high temperatures did not occur again this afternoon in the
Midlands/CSRA though AGS was close again, just one degree shy of
its record. The evening weather map shows surface low pressure
over northern Kentucky with strong to severe storms in the warm
sector ahead of a cold front extending from the low southwestward
through TN/MS/LA. Surface high pressure remains over our area with
diurnal cumulus clouds dissipating but some high clouds remain

The upper trough over the Midwest continues to amplify and will
push the cold front towards our area early Friday morning.
Moisture is limited and do not expect any precipitation to reach
our area overnight as the front approaches. A 20-25 knot low
level jet overnight will help keep the boundary layer mixed and
therefore fog formation is not expected. Temperatures also will be
impacted by the mixing as well as increasing clouds from the west
during the predawn hours. Overnight lows expected in the lower
to mid 60s.


A deep upper level trough will cross the eastern conus over the
weekend. Models in good agreement with the associated cold front
crossing the Midlands and CSRA through midday Friday. Moisture
along the front still appears to decrease as it moves into the
area given downslope northwest flow. MOS pops are slightly lower
this model run. Have indicated slight chance pops across the north
Midlands Friday morning with dry condition farther south.

By the afternoon, any showers will be pushing off to the east with
cold air advection and dry air filtering into the area. Winds on
Friday just ahead of and behind the cold front will increase,
becoming rather gusty through the afternoon hours. Wind gusts
between 20 and 25 mph will be possible, but expect conditions to
remain just below Lake Wind Advisory criteria. Temperatures still
expected to be at or slightly above normal Friday as downslope
offsets cold air advection. Kept daytime highs a few degrees lower
than guidance...ranging from the lower 70s north and west to around
80 southeast.

Cooler and drier air will overspread the region Friday night into
Saturday as high pressure builds in from the west. Autumn-like
temperature will be across the region. Lows both Friday night and
Saturday night will fall into the 40s. Afternoon highs on Saturday
will be in the middle 60s north, to the upper 60s in the southern


Dry weather, along with seasonable temperatures will prevail through
next week. Another cold front appears to cross the region late
Monday. Given limited moisture, the front will come through the area
dry. Monday should be the warmest day with high temperatures in the
mid and upper 70s. Otherwise, expect highs in the low to mid 70s and
lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.


An approaching cold front will move through the area during the
12z to 16z time frame. The models and observation trends indicate
little moisture associated with the front. Mixing ahead of the
front should limit the fog threat tonight and upstream
observations had mainly just mid-level ceilings. We maintained
the VFR forecast. The shower chance associated with the front was
too low to include in the terminal forecasts. It will be breezy
behind the front. The NAM Bufkit momentum transfer tool and GFS
LAMP supported gusts 20 to 25 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected.




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