Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 070642
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
242 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TODAY...THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...LEADING
TO A DRIER WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL JET SO SOME ISOLATED
FOG MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED SOME
HEAVY RAIN MONDAY EVENING. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED IN THE GRIDS.

TODAY...UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN
SHIFTING NORTHEAST. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST SO THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
MOST FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR BOTH
SHOW MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
PROMOTE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S TONIGHT.  AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND WEAKEN AS UPPER RIDGING PUSHES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.   REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO OUR CWA...WITH BEST MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE
COAST.  ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE SEA BREEZE WORKS
INLAND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...CONTINUING
TO GENERALLY REDUCE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO MAINLY
ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST CLOSER TO THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT EACH AFTERNOON.  WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.  BY SUNDAY THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.  ANY UPPER IMPULSES...SURFACE BOUNDARIES...OR
REMNANT MCS...SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD
COULD PROMOTE CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

EVENING RAIN AROUND OGB AND AGS HAS ADDED TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR AGS/OGB. HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR FOG BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. LESS
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY SUPPORTS ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT TAF ISSUANCE.
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8 KNOTS OR
LESS AND WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY THIS EVENING. A 25 KNOT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$


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