Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
FXUS62 KCHS 021744
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1244 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016
High pressure will prevail through Saturday. A storm system will
affect the area Sunday through Tuesday. A strong cold front will
sweep through late next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This afternoon: High pressure will continue to provide full
insolation, supporting high temperatures in the lower/mid 60s.
Ongoing forecasts remain on track for this tranquil regime.
Tonight: High pressure centered near the Midwest will continue
to extend into the forecast area and another quiet period will
result. Clear skies will prevail for the first part of the
overnight, with a modest increase in high clouds possible late
as a system begins to organize across Texas. The forecast is dry
and low temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 30s
well inland to the low/mid 40s at the coast.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cool high pressure will persist on Saturday with weak cold air
advection continuing. Morning skies will be partly cloudy with
increasing mid and high clouds during the day as the upper
trough digs to the west. High temps will be in the low to mid
Low-level moisture will gradually increase Saturday night into
Sunday in response to approaching shortwave energy and
strengthening south/southwest flow. Backing flow above the
surface with surface high pressure persisting to the north will
produce moist isentropic ascent on Sunday, particularly inland.
We expect light rain to break out through the afternoon, mainly
across the inland half of the area.
Sunday night into Monday, as Precipitable Water values rise
above 1.75" and weak upper jet divergence spreads across the
northern portion of the area, precipitation will increase in
coverage and intensity. We are showing likely pops most areas
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The primary shortwave will lift northeast through the TN Valley
Monday night, pushing a cold front through the area on Tuesday
and bringing an end to the ongoing precipitation. A fairly mild
high pressure airmass will prevail Tuesday night into Wednesday
before a cold front approaches late week. There are considerable
model differences with the late week front, especially concerning
precip amount/coverage. Potential exists for a marked cooldown
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR through Saturday.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR through Saturday. A storm system
and associated precipitation will likely produce periods of flight
restrictions Sunday through Tuesday.
This afternoon: inland high pressure and marine layer
instability/mixing will maintain north/northwest winds
10-15 knots, accompanied by seas 2-3 ft nearshore and
3-4 ft beyond 20 nm.
Tonight: Another modest surge of north winds is expected,
and winds will increase into the 15-20 knot range. Seas will
average 2-3 feet out to 20 nm and 3-4 feet beyond through the
High pressure will expand over the waters through Saturday,
eventually shifting offshore early next week. Increasing
southerly winds on Tuesday ahead of a cold front could result in
Small Craft Advisory criteria seas for at least the offshore GA
waters late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Otherwise the next
significant surge will be late next week behind a strong cold