Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 251937
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
337 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST BUT REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTH. PRETTY DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE
OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS. SO NOT EXPECTING QUITE AS
COLD AS THIS MORNING...MAINLY UPPER 40S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 50S
AROUND THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 80S EXPECTED
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COOLING
TEMPERATURES DOWN AT THE BEACHES BY SEVERAL DEGREES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1 INCH...KEEPING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT
BAY. ONLY POTENTIAL WEATHER PROBLEM WILL BE MORNING FOG...WHICH
COULD BECOME DENSE IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS
INCREASE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED VALUES OF MID 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 AT THE COAST. CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR A NICE SURFACE INVERSION TO SET UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER TROUGH...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE TREND IS TOWARD A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL... ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING GROUND FOG
THAT WOULD RESTRICT VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL APPROACH
LEADING TO A BIT MORE OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BUT STILL EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE WEATHER
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...FWA/RJB
MARINE...FWA/RJB






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