Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 051120
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
720 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH
THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MADE ITSELF KNOWN
OVERNIGHT AS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SC MIDLANDS AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING VERY FAR INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS BY
DAYBREAK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NE SFC WINDS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT.

AFTER SUNRISE WE EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO DISSIPATE WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING. AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE
80S BY LATE MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT. A WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY TRIGGER A FEW STORMS CLOSER TO THE
COAST LATE MORNING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...MODELS INDICATE A
PRONOUNCED UPPER VORT MAX SHIFTING SSW INTO OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GA COUNTIES. AS THE SEA BREEZE BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS COASTAL GA WHERE A MORE ENE FLOW DEVELOPS...CONVECTION MAY
MIGRATE INTO INLAND GA LATER IN THE DAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY ALSO
SHIFTS INTO INLAND AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. THUS WE SHOW POPS
TOPPING OUT DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THERE
ARE NO STRONG INDICATORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH GIVEN THE FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA...SOME MULTI-CELL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND THESE
ARE A BIT MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 90 DEGREES.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOST OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE AREA. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES BEHIND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THE PATTERN WILL
FAVOR COOLER CONDITIONS WITHIN AN NORTHEAST FLOW TO START OFF THE
WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A
MID/UPPER LVL LOW POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE COAST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A EAST/NORTHEAST GRADUALLY VEERS ON MONDAY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING INTO MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW BY TUESDAY. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING MID/UPPER LVL LOW WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PERHAPS GREATEST
CHANCES ALONG AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...TO NEAR 90 ON TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70S DEGREES AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID/UPPER LVL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN BUT A BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. AT
THE SFC...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHILE A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND. THE PATTERN WILL
RESEMBLE ONE MORE TYPICAL DURING THE SUMMERTIME...WITH AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SUGGEST A WETTER PATTERN NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACH OF COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. IN
GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE MAINTAINED A VFR FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. HIGH-RES MODELS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
AT KCHS AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM. THUS WE
MAINTAINED A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE UPPER FORCING SHOULD DRAW MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION INTO INLAND GA. WE HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AT
KSAV. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY WEAK NE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY...PRODUCING NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS AND GRADUALLY
BUILDING SEAS UP TO 3 FT. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
WITH MAINLY DAYTIME COASTAL ENHANCEMENTS NEAR A DEVELOPING
SEABREEZE. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN AND VEER TO MORE
EASTERLY ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN REBUILD SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VEERING WINDS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/JRL



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