Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271208
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
708 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

As an upper level trough exits the Central Plains and moves into
the mid Mississippi Valley early this morning another upper level
trough, located across central California and Nevada at 00z
Saturday will move southeast into Arizona. This southwest United
States upper level trough will then begin to deepen Saturday
night. Ahead of this deepening upper level system a south to
southwesterly flow is forecast to develop. This south
southwesterly flow will not only begin to draw northward some
tropical moisture but also there will be some subtle upper level
disturbances embed this flow over the weekend into early next
week.

For today given the expected 00z Sunday 850mb temperatures
advertised by the NAM and GFS across western Kansas will continue
to follow the previous forecast with highs climbing back mainly
into the mid 80s.

Another chance for storms will exist this afternoon near a
surface boundary which will be located across portions of western
Kansas as a weak upper level disturbance lifts northeast out of
new mexico and into eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Improving
0-1km moisture convergence along this boundary and 700mb to 500
lapse rages greater than 7 C/km will exist late today and early
tonight, however 0-6km shear is forecast to be less than 30 knots.
At this time given the shear severe weather is not anticipated but
a few of the stronger storms may produce some gusty winds. What
thunderstorms that do develop late today in western Kansas will
move east overnight as the upper level disturbance crosses the
Central High Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

A surface boundary will move very little on Sunday and is
expected to be located over eastern Colorado and portions of
western Kansas as an upper low weakens and slowly moves east
across the four corners region. A south to southwest flow will
still be in place across the southern Rockies and Central Plains
as another weak embedded upper wave moves up out of New Mexico and
into the West Central High Plains. Much like Saturday there will
be a chance for afternoon thunderstorms along the surface boundary
and then move east into western Kansas early Sunday tonight. 850mb
24 hour temperature trends from 00z Sunday to 00z Monday suggests
highs 3-5F warmer than temperatures on Saturday.

The chance for convection will be possible each day from Sunday
night through mid week as a series of upper level waves embedded
in the south southwesterly flow crosses western Kansas. Timing and
track of these subtle features will be an issue since each model
differs on solutions. Given this will not stray far from guidance
or previous forecast given this uncertainty. 850mb temperature
trends through the first half of the work week changes very little
and given the expected mid to high level moisture will continue to
stay with the current trend in keeping highs mainly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 704 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

VFR flight category forecast for the local terminals for today,
with light and variable winds early and turning south around 15
knots mid morning. More clusters of thunderstorms are likely late
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  65  88  66 /  10  20  20  30
GCK  87  63  89  65 /  10  30  20  30
EHA  86  62  88  63 /  10  20  20  30
LBL  87  64  89  65 /  10  20  20  30
HYS  84  65  87  66 /  10  20  20  30
P28  88  68  88  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Russell



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