Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241422
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
922 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 921 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

WV imagery indicates an amplified upper level trough moving slowly
east into western portions of the Central Rockies while a south-
southwest flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains. Near
the surface, an area of low pressure is located across northeast New
Mexico with an attendant frontal boundary extending northeast into
western Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

The upper level low mentioned in previous AFD`s will move into the
Rockies today with embedded shortwaves moving through the Central
High Plains. Towards the surface, a frontal boundary currently
stretched from southeastern Colorado to north central Nebraska
will slowly ooze eastward as the short term period progresses.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to from along and
ahead of this boundary, otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies
through tonight. Moderate to heavy rain may accompany some of
these storms creating ponding of water on roadways. Winds ahead of
this boundary will generally be from the south with northerly
winds behind this frontal boundary. As for temperatures, highs
today are expected to range from the low 70s across west central
Kansas to upper 80s across central and south central Kansas. Lows
tonight look to range from around 50 degrees across west central
Kansas to mid 60s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue Monday with
precipitation chances dwindling from west to east Monday night.
Precipitation chances will then be confined to south central
Kansas Tuesday. Mostly cloudy skies are anticipated through Monday
then decrease in cloudiness Monday night into Tuesday from west to
east. Winds will generally be from a northerly direction through
Tuesday then shift to more of a northeasterly direction
thereafter. The upper level long wave trough will then split with
one upper level low sliding northeast into central Canada with a
secondary upper level low spinning up across the Desert Southwest.
Thunderstorms will be possible along the KS/OK border Tuesday
night through Thursday, but the best chance will be south of our
CWA across Oklahoma and Texas. Skies look to be partly cloudy
through this time frame with a more increase in cloudiness the
farther you head south. A drier period is then expected through
the remainder of the long term forecast with partly cloudy skies.
As for temperatures, highs Monday look to range from the upper 50s
across west central Kansas to upper 70s across south central
Kansas. Highs will then be around 70 degrees Tuesday through
Thursday, then mid 70s as we head into this weekend. Lows are
expected to start out ranging from the mid 40s along the KS/CO
border to mid-upper 50s across south central Kansas. Lows there
after will generally range from the mid-upper 40s along the KS/Co
border to low-mid 50s elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Ongoing precipitation event will be the main weather element of
concern...along with ceiling. For the time being, ceilings will
likely remain in the VFR category, with only periodic times of
MVFR ceiling around 2-3 thousand feet. Showers will remain
numerous in nature, although they may be scattered by late
morning/early afternoon until the next round develops later in the
afternoon and evening. There should be more lightning and deeper
convective elements tonight as forcing for ascent increases. Winds
will be fairly light and variable in direction in the midst of
precipitation, but later in the day the southerly winds may
prevail again in the 8-12 knot range. Cold front wind shift is not
expected until late morning to early afternoon Monday across the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  58  69  50 /  50  80  80  60
GCK  71  55  63  48 /  70  70  60  40
EHA  72  53  63  45 /  60  70  50  40
LBL  74  58  68  49 /  70  80  70  50
HYS  76  58  64  50 /  60  80  80  50
P28  87  65  75  57 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid


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