Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 300540
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1240 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS OF 18Z, HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
BY 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM 17 TO 25
PERCENT, BUT GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING THESE VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL
BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. THE LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY WILL
BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON WHERE THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 30S WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE 0-1KM LEVEL MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL
REACH THE 800MB LEVEL MONDAY AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE
NET 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 3C IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO 7 TO 9C NEAR A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. GIVEN THESE 800MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 80 NEAR
THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.

THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS
TIME THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS FEATURE TREKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CWA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING DOWN COOLER AIR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS
THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THIS
FRONT, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AS
OF NOW, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TREK NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ONLY EXPERIENCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN, WEST CENTRAL, AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. ANOTHER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
80S WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S. LOWER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AROUND 60
DEGREES FRIDAY, THEN BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT LENDING TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. BY MID MORNING MONDAY, THE GRADIENT SHOULD
BE INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A MARKED INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THORUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS INDICATE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP FROM NEAR HAYS TO NEAR GARDEN CITY.
OTHERWISE VFR SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  82  51  83 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  41  82  48  85 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  45  83  48  85 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  46  82  49  85 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  42  81  50  83 /   0  10  10  30
P28  47  83  53  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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