Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 281054
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
554 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016
...Updated for Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016
Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas today as short range
models indicate upper level ridging shifting slowly eastward across
the Central Plains during the period. A weak flow aloft and a lack of
moisture/instability will void any chances for precip through Friday
night. A warming trend will continue today as a prevailing southerly
flow draws warmer air northward into western Kansas pushing H85
temperatures up around to a little above 20C today. Expect highs well
into the mid to upper 80s(F) this afternoon with near 90F possible in
some locations. Look for lows only down into the 50s(F) Friday night
with the lower 60s(F) even possible across south central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016
A dry weather pattern will persist through early next week even as
medium range models indicate a weak upper level shortwave trough
pushing eastward across the Western High Plains early in the period.
An attendant cold front is projected to push into western Kansas
early Saturday while a prevailing southerly flow ahead of the front
draws some moisture northward into central and portions of southwest
Kansas. However, the return is expected to be marginal resulting in
a lack of instability across the region as the frontal boundary moves
through. Also considering a weak flow aloft, precip chances will remain
scarce across western Kansas Saturday. The quiet pattern will continue
Sunday as a drier air mass filters southward into western Kansas behind
the front while ridging aloft again moves eastward across the Western
High Plains. Another upper level shortwave will kick eastward across
the Northern Plains Monday ushering a frontal boundary into western
Kansas late in the day. However, precip chances will remain remote
with moisture slow to return to western Kansas.
Well above normal temperatures are likely Saturday regardless of a cold
front pushing into western Kansas by early to mid afternoon. Highs are
expected to reach up into the lower to mid 80s(F) Saturday afternoon
with the upper 70s(F) possible in west central Kansas depending on the
timing of the frontal passage. A cooler air mass will drop southward
into western Kansas Sunday dropping H85 temperatures into the teens(C)
across the area. Should see highs only in the 70s(F) Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle part of next
week regardless of subsequent frontal passages.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016
A lee trough of low pressure will push into western Kansas later
today and tonight with VFR conditions and only high level
cloudiness. South to southwesterly winds will again increase to
15-25kt with morning mixing, then decrease to 10-18kt at Dodge
and weaker elsewhere.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 88 59 85 47 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 87 52 83 45 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 87 56 85 46 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 88 56 87 47 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 86 57 82 45 / 0 0 0 0
P28 85 62 86 52 / 0 0 0 0