Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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162
FXUS63 KDDC 301940
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
240 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...Updated Short term and Long term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop early this evening
near the surface boundary in southeastern Colorado as an upper
level disturbance moves into the Central High Plains. Should
stormsdevelop late today they will move east southeast into
western Kansas towards sunset. If any of these storms do move into
far western Kansas early tonight these storms are not expected to
severe, however wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph may be possible. As
the upper level disturbance crosses western Kansas after sunset
the chance for thunderstorms will improve given improving 850mb
warm air advection located on the northeastern edge of the 700mb
warm layer. Given this along with 850mb to 700mb moisture that is
forecast to be located in the 8C to 12C 700mb temperature gradient
will continue to favor a better chance for chance for scattered
thunderstorms northeast of of a Garden City to Dodge City line
during the overnight hours. Once again wind gusts up to 55 will be
the main hazard along with the chance of some small hail.

There will be a chance for thunderstorms this evening across
north central Kansas. Better instability and shear will be present
as the 850mb warm air advection begins improve. Cooler mid level
temperatures along with some higher 850mb to 700mb moisture. Any
storm that may develop in this area between 00z and 03z Sunday may
be strong or even marginally severe. Wind gusts of 60 mph and hail
up to the size of quarters will be the main hazards.

On Sunday an upper level ridge axis will build east into the
Central High Plains and the 24 hour 850mb temperatures change from
00z Sunday to 00z Monday will warm 6-8C . Given this warming trend
will not stray far from the previous forecast with highs Sunday
afternoon ranging from 95 to near 100 degrees.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Models to various degrees continue to suggest an upper level wave
rotating across the central Rockies on Sunday, and as this upper
wave crosses the central Plains Sunday night there will be chance
for evening and overnight convection again. At this time however
given the warming in the mid level and where the better low level
forcing will be located late day any thunderstorms that do develop
will likely occur along the surface lee trough located in eastern
Colorado. The probability for precipitation in western Kansas will
be small but am leaning towards inserting some small chances of
isolated overnight convection in the far western Kansas.

On Monday a trough of low pressure at the surface will deepen
over eastern Colorado as the westerly flow across the Rockies
continues. Highs around 100 degrees still looks on track for much
of western Kansas given the warming 850mb to 700mb temperatures.

Monday night into Tuesday a cold front will drop south towards
southwest Kansas as an upper level trough crosses the Northern
Plains. Models today differing on how far south this front will
move before lifting back north as a warm front late Tuesday or
early Wednesday...but all the models agree the precipitation
chances will improve as this front moves into western Kansas.

A brief break in the warming trend will be possible north of this
front on Tuesday but given the uncertainty on where this front
will be will not lower temperatures much cooler than the latest
guidance at this time. Temperatures will then rebound back to near
100 mid week as this frontal boundary lifts north.

The next chance for precipitation and more seasonal temperatures
will be late week as another cold front approaches western Kansas.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

A south to southeasterly wind at 10 to 15 knots this afternoon
will gradually veer to the southwest overnight as a weak surface
boundary moves northeast across western Kansas. Ahead of this
frontal boundary this evening there will be a slight chance for
thunderstorm late today and early tonight...mainly in the Hays
area. The RAP and NAM model soundings both suggesting cloud bases
late today and early tonight with being in the 850mb to 700mb
level.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  98  72  98 /  20   0  10  20
GCK  68  97  70  97 /  20   0  10  20
EHA  69  97  71  97 /  20  10  10  20
LBL  70  98  72  98 /  20   0  10  20
HYS  69  97  73  99 /  20  10  10  20
P28  73 100  74 101 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert



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