Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 292352
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
652 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Dynamic storm system affecting the area at this time, with the
initial warm conveyor belt bringing rain across most of the area.
A better defined banded region of snow was ongoing earlier across
the western counties which likely accounted for up to a third of
the overall remaining snowfall expected for the storm duration
through midday Sunday. The initial snow was wet; model liquid to
snow ratios indicated only on the order of about 6 or 7 to 1, and
still local amounts of 4 to 7 inches fell near Scott city/Ulysses.
The overall rain snow line heading into tonight is not expected
to shift much either but enough for locations like Trego and Dodge
City to get in on some snowfall. The NAM/WRF holds the area of
good mid level frontogenetic forcing very near the KS/CO line,
with little movement eastward though the night. The other issue
will be the strong gradient winds developing sustained at 30 mph
or higher from the north. The blowing and drifting may be
lessened somewhat from the very low snow ratios and wet snow on
the ground. Given the nature of the low ratio, heavy wet snow it
is not clear if 3 hours of 1/4 mile or less visibility will be
met, required to go with Blizzard warning. The far southeast
counties likely will just see rain overnight in the isentropic
lift, as the models indicated low probability of cloud ice,
required for dendrite formation.

Sunday the system will be winding down in the morning, as winds may
pick up in the subsident backside of the exiting system. Models have
temperatures moving very little if at all into Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Slow moderation into the 60s by mid to late week. Rain chances
return around midweek as another wave in the broad cyclonic flow
drops out of the northern Rockies into west Texas by Wednesday
night. Model indicate a ridge building in over the Plains states
after that heading into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Rain will transition to snow at KGCK and KDDC by 02z and 06z
respectively as colder air moves in. Visibilities may drop to
below 1/2 mile at times at KGCK through 16z. The precipitation may
change to snow between 09 and 12z at KHYS. Precipitation is
expected to shift northward by the end of the period with snow
tapering off. Strong north winds will persist and become even
stronger ater 14z as surface low pressure passes to the east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  37  33  61 / 100  90  20   0
GCK  32  37  30  54 / 100  90  20   0
EHA  31  40  31  56 / 100  70   0   0
LBL  33  41  31  62 / 100  80  10   0
HYS  36  36  34  59 / 100 100  50   0
P28  38  44  36  68 / 100  60  20   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ031-045-064-
077-078-086-087.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Sunday for KSZ043-
061>063-074>076-084-085.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ030-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Finch


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