Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 301134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
634 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Updated for the new 12z aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

An upper level trough extended from far western Lake Superior
to a low centered in Kansas early this morning. In the lower
levels, a ridge of high pressure was over much of northern
Minnesota. As this upper trough moves through Wisconsin today,
there will be a chance for light precipitation over mainly
portions of Price, Sawyer, and Iron Counties. A light wintry mix
will be possible early this morning then as boundary layer
temperatures warm, rain will be possible. Elsewhere across the
Northland today, partly to mostly cloudy conditions will occur. We
expect clouds to increase over northern Minnesota into this
morning, then they will start to decrease this afternoon. Stratus
off of Lake Superior will continue around portions of the lake
into this evening, although it may diminish for a time this
afternoon. The wind off of Lake Superior will be lighter this
morning but will again increase this afternoon. We don`t expect
the lake breeze to be quite as strong as yesterday but it will
still keep lakeside areas cooler. Highs today will be from 36 to
42 close to the lake to the mid to upper forties over northwest
Wisconsin and 50 to 55 from Bigfork to International Falls.

The upper trough will depart tonight and clouds will gradually
decrease through the night.

High pressure will keep the Northland dry on Friday under partly
to mostly sunny skies. The wind will again be off of Lake Superior
for most lakeside locations but the flow will be weaker. Highs
will range from the lower forties close to the lake to the upper
forties to mid fifties elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

The long-term forecast period is highlighted by above average
temperatures and a handful of chances of precipitation. Friday and
Saturday start off fairly dry across the Northland, except for
chances of precip along the International Border. A mid-level
shortwave looks to be the primary mechanism for these chances, but
the amplitude and PVA associated with it doesn`t look as strong as
the corresponding run yesterday, so keeping the POPs focused along
the International Border seems reasonable. A little bit of a wintry
mix could develop, but rain will be the primary p-type.

A large amplitude longwave trough is progged to develop out of the
Four Corners region, which is expected to hurl a few shortwaves into
the region from Sunday through Monday evening. POPs increase Sunday
afternoon as better isentropic lift develops. 30.00z GFS soundings
indicate some dry air near the sfc Sunday afternoon, so uncertainty
does exist regarding QPF amounts. Some light rain/snow mix may be
possible. Then, sfc high pressure keeps conditions calm and dry
across the Northland Monday afternoon through Tuesday before
another mid-level wave develops.

The next best chances of precipitation don`t return until Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday across northwest Wisconsin as a potent
shortwave advances through the mid Mississippi River Valley, and
advances to the northeast. Still a lot of uncertainty with this
system with regards to the track of the sfc low and QPF amounts
between the GFS/ECMWF/CMC models. Decent support is progged for this
system with an enhanced corridor of 700-500 mb layer frontogenetical
forcing. Temperatures will remain above average for this time of the
year as highs look to reach into the 50s nearly every day, except
for some 40s across the Minnesota Arrowhead.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

VFR to LIFR conditions will continue through the morning hours
today. KDLH is expected to remain underneath a lake-induced LIFR
stratus deck through much of the morning. Winds over KDLH were
east-southeast, which helped to transport this lake-induced low-
level stratus. These winds are expected to go more northeasterly,
which will help diminish this low stratus later in the morning.

Ceilings over KHYR may drop to MVFR this afternoon due to a sfc
low pressure system expected to advance over the mid Mississippi
River Valley and towards the northeast. Cigs down to 3 kft
possible this afternoon at KHYR, possibly lower. Fog is also a
concern, particularly for the KHIB and KBRD terminals as cloud
cover is a little more scarce over these areas, leading to a bit
better radiational cooling. Nearby AWOS sites at Grand Rapids
indicate 1/2 SM just before TAF issuance. Winds are expected to be
gusty over KDLH this afternoon, thanks to northeast winds coming
off Lake Superior, helping them to accelerate.


DLH  44  29  47  32 /   0   0   0   0
INL  52  28  54  34 /   0   0   0  20
BRD  52  30  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  47  30  50  28 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  43  29  47  29 /  10  10   0   0


LS...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 AM CDT Friday for



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