Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 300928
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
428 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A STALLED 850MB FRONT STRETCHES WEST TO EAST BETWEEN THE I-20
CORRIDOR AND THE RED RIVER. A 30-35KT LLJ HAS HELPED TO INITIATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
AIDED BY THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE
STEERING FLOW IS RESULTING IN TRAINING...THE HEAVY RAIN WITH WHICH
WILL RE-AGGRAVATE FLOODING ISSUES. HOWEVER...THE TRAINING WILL
EVENTUALLY BE DISRUPTED BY THE ADVANCING MCS IN WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...BUT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING. THE LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING...IMPACTING AREAS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LINE....BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE COLD POOL SUGGESTS THIS WILL WANE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES.

OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...THE 850MB FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND...AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. AND WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NOT
PASSING OUR LONGITUDE UNTIL THIS EVENING...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT NORTH TEXAS THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND ANY OF THE
CELLS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO OUR EAST...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE
TONIGHT. AT LONG LAST...RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD
IN...ALLOWING THE LONE STAR STATE A CHANCE TO DRY OUT. THE LOW IS
NOW PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MUCH OF THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN EAST
TEXAS. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER A CLOUDY MAY...THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE WILL GET OFF
TO A VERY SUNNY START. THE WET GROUND WILL TEMPER THE WARMING
TREND...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S BY LATE
IN THE WEEK.

BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN HINT THAT THE RIDGE COULD BREAK DOWN BY
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE ECMWF INTENSIFIES ITS GRIP ON TEXAS. THE
ECMWF MAY BE SWAYED TOO STRONGLY BY CLIMATOLOGY...BUT THE
SPAGHETTI SPLATTER OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MEANS WE SHOULD ALSO
HAVE A SKEPTICAL EYE WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.
JUNE IS AMONG THE WETTEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY...SO
WE SHOULD EXPECT THIS RESPITE FROM THE RAIN WILL NOT BE PERMANENT.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1200 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER WEST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...AN 850MB FRONT THAT LIES PRETTY CLOSE
TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR ACCORDING TO THE 00Z ANALYSIS... WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THIS 850MB FRONT...AND TRAINING OF ECHOES WILL RESULT IN A
FLASH FLOOD HAZARD OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. AN IMPROVEMENT TO LOWER END MVFR IS FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  63  82  63  84 /  60  20   5   5   5
WACO, TX              83  63  82  61  85 /  80  40  20   0   5
PARIS, TX             80  60  78  60  80 /  60  30   5   0   5
DENTON, TX            79  60  80  59  83 /  60  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          80  60  80  58  82 /  70  20   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            82  64  82  64  85 /  70  20  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           82  63  81  61  84 /  70  20  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  64  81  62  84 /  80  40  20   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            82  65  81  61  84 /  70  40  20   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     79  60  81  59  84 /  60  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

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