Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 222107
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
307 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017


.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight/
Surface high pressure will build south over the region
tonight and result in decreasing wind speeds. The light wind
coupled with dry air and a mostly clear sky will promote rapid
cooling after sunset. Overnight lows will have no problem falling
into the 30s across the entire forecast area with multiple spots
reaching freezing before sunrise.

79

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Thanksgiving Day Onward/

Warm and dry weather will prevail through much of the extended
forecast with little/no chance for rain until the middle of next
week. After a cold start Thanksgiving morning with temperatures
near freezing, the dry air in place will allow temperatures to
warm quickly with diabatic heating along with a return to light
southerly winds. During the afternoon, a weak front will approach
our northwestern zones, but won`t have much of a noticeable effect
other than to veer the wind direction slightly. South winds will
continue on Friday with a strong upper ridge positioned to our
west, keeping us in northwest flow aloft. With stronger warm
advection, the warming trend will continue and some areas may
reach 80+ degrees Friday afternoon.

Late Friday night and Saturday morning, another weak cold front
will be pulled into the forecast area. While cold air behind the
front will be limited, it will be sufficient to at least knock
temperatures down 5-10 degrees (although they`ll remain above
normal through the weekend). With little/no moisture available,
the frontal passage will be dry with no rain chances over the
weekend. Light south winds will resume on Sunday with the upper
ridge still dominating the southwestern US. As a result,
temperatures will slowly warm through Sunday and Monday with dry
conditions continuing.

Extended guidance suggests a breakdown of the ridge beginning on
Tuesday with strong height falls overspreading much of the
Southern and Central Plains. This should allow a stronger cold
front to move into the area sometime next Tuesday or Wednesday.
The ECMWF has deepened/slowed the progression of this system from
previous runs which now delays the front`s arrival until late
Wednesday, while the operational GFS is 24-30 hours faster with a
progressive open wave aloft. Ensemble members are also all over
the map for the large-scale pattern through the middle of next
week, so have basically split the difference on timing for now.
When this frontal passage does occur, there could actually be some
rain showers associated with it after a few days of south flow
finally returns some modest moisture to the area. Have continued
low PoPs beginning Tuesday afternoon and lasting into Wednesday
morning for areas near/east of I-35.

-Stalley

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/
VFR through Thursday afternoon at all TAF sites with only some
passing high clouds.

Northerly winds between 8 and 13 knots this afternoon will become
light and variable this evening once surface high pressure settles
over the region. The high pressure center will build east on
Thursday while a surface trough deepens across the Northern and
Central Plains. This will turn the wind to the south with a
slow increase in speed through the day.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    37  68  46  78  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                33  69  42  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               32  63  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              32  70  42  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            33  67  42  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              38  68  46  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             33  67  41  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           34  65  43  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              33  70  42  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       34  75  42  82  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

26/79



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