National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KFWD 240757
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
257 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING HAS SPUN UP AN
MCV...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH TX.
THIS FORCING SHOULD KICK UP MORE CONVECTION AS SEEN IN ECMWF AND
GFS. NAM FORECASTS NEW CONVECTION IN THE NRN TX PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING...BUT RECENT RADAR SHOWS THAT CONVECTION IS WEAKENING SO
HAVE DISREGARDED THE NAM/S SOLUTION OF A SOUTHEAST-MOVING MCS
MOVING INTO WESTERN COUNTIES. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET FOR THE
AREA...JUST A DIFFERENCE ON MECHANISMS AND LOCAL PRECIP AMOUNTS.

THERE IS ALSO A SHORT WAVE JUST OFF OF CENTRAL BAJA THAT SHOULD
TRACK ENE AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...ADDING SUPPORT TO THE FORECAST OF CONVECTION MOVING SW-
NE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOT ALL AREAS WILL SEE RAIN...BUT CANNOT
ELIMINATE ANY AREAS GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS SO POPS EXTEND ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TX.

WILL KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S
THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD COVER. NEXT WEEK MODERATE
RIDGING ALOFT AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER
MORNINGS AND WARMER AFTERNOONS. GFS/EURO CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK SO WILL NOT FORECAST RAIN IN THE
EXTENDED. 84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  71  84  70  87 /  30  30  20  20  10
WACO, TX              87  71  88  70  89 /  40  30  20  20   5
PARIS, TX             81  69  84  71  85 /  20  20  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            83  71  83  70  86 /  30  30  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          84  71  85  70  87 /  30  30  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            87  71  87  70  89 /  30  30  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           86  71  87  70  88 /  20  20  20  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         87  71  87  71  89 /  30  30  20  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            86  72  87  70  88 /  40  30  20  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  71  84  69  88 /  40  30  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /