Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 261759 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1259 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon mainly west of Interstate 35/I-35W but
some showers may work their way into the TAF sites late afternoon
into this evening. Thus, have included VCSH for for the 21z-03z
period in the Metroplex TAF sites. Mostly VFR conditions are
expected through this evening outside of showers. Ceilings should
lower to around 5000 feet by 21z and MVFR ceilings are expected by
12z Wednesday. Some IFR conditions are possible Wednesday morning
and have highlighted that possibility with a TEMPO BKN009 between
12z and 16z. VFR conditions are expected to improve Wednesday
afternoon so have placed a SCT015 BKN040 starting at 19z for the
extended portion of the DFW TAF.

At Waco, mostly VFR conditions are expected through tonight.
Isolated showers are possible this afternoon and scattered showers
are possible this evening. Have placed VCSH starting at 18z and
placed a TEMPO 6SM SHRA during the 00z through 06z periods.
Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR by 15z Wednesday.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 218 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017/
/Today and Tonight/

The main concern in the short term will be the placement of
highest rain and thunder chances. Widespread severe weather
appears unlikely given the modest lapse rates and limited deep
layer shear. Otherwise, it should feel slightly cooler for some
with widespread cloud cover and increasingly east and north winds.

For Today---Ongoing showers and embedded thunderstorms will
continue this morning as isentropic ascent along the 300K and 305K
theta surfaces continues for areas west of the I-35 corridor.
These pockets of concentrated precipitation should diminish
through mid-morning and it`s possible that for a short window of
time, much of the area remains mostly rain-free. Otherwise, patchy
fog across southeastern zones will gradually dissipate with
cloudy to partly sunny skies across North and Central TX.
Additional precipitation is expected to blossom later this
afternoon, especially for areas near and west of the HWY 281
corridor. This precipitation will be in response to increasing
isentropic lift as well as the encroaching cold front currently
across the TX Rolling Plains.

For Tonight---The cold front will continue to slide southward
through Central TX through Wednesday morning. Ascent along and
behind the front will persist and will result in another good
rain shield, mainly near and west of the HWY 281 corridor. As a
result, I`ve kept highest PoPs out west with lower rain chances
farther east.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 218 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017/
/Wednesday through Next Monday/

At the start of Wednesday, a cold front will be draped across
North Texas with the large upper trough still over the western
U.S. Persistent low level isentropic ascent will continue through
much of the day resulting in a good coverage of showers and a few
thunderstorms mainly west of I-35. Areas east of I-35 will be
under more of an influence from upper ridging and increasing
subsidence through the day. As we go through the day Wednesday
into Thursday, the large upper trough over the western U.S. will
finally begin to slowly deamplify and eject eastward. As it does,
ridging will strengthen over North Texas leaving only the frontal
boundary as a primary focus for precipitation development. Rain
chances will generally be confined to areas west of I-35 Wednesday
night through Thursday night before diminishing areawide on
Friday. With the main trough moving through the Plains on Friday,
a secondary push of cooler and noticeably drier air will slide
into North Texas late Friday evening. This should effectively end
precipitation chances for North Texas with the forecast remaining
dry into early next week.

Given weak mid level lapse rates and only weak instability during
peak heating, the overall severe weather threat Wednesday through
Friday looks minimal and we`ll only mention isolated thunderstorms
in the forecast with showers prevailing. The bulk of the synoptic
forcing will remain over West Texas through Thursday, so even with
the cold front draped across the CWA, highest rain chances
Wednesday and Thursday will be west of I-35. Some locally heavy
rainfall amounts may occur across our far western counties with
areas along and east of I-35 likely receiving less than an inch of
rain through the week.

Temperatures will be warm across the eastern half of the region on
Wednesday but as the cold front slides farther south, temperatures
will continue to cool. Highs will be at or below seasonal normals
Thursday through the weekend.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  73  86  68  82 /  30  30  30  20  20
Waco                89  72  88  70  86 /  40  20  20  30  20
Paris               87  70  87  68  82 /  10  10  20  20  20
Denton              86  70  83  65  79 /  30  30  30  20  20
McKinney            87  71  86  67  80 /  20  30  20  20  20
Dallas              88  74  87  70  82 /  30  30  20  20  20
Terrell             88  71  90  69  85 /  20  10  20  20  20
Corsicana           89  71  89  71  87 /  20  10  20  20  20
Temple              87  71  86  70  85 /  40  30  30  30  20
Mineral Wells       83  68  80  63  77 /  60  60  50  40  40




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