Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 262011
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
311 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The Nation`s weather is currently being dominated by a large upper
low, which can be seen on water vapor imagery spiraling across the
Great Lakes region. A tailing upper trough extends southwestward
into Central Texas, and currently represents the back edge of our
precipitation this afternoon. For North and Central Texas, this
portion of the upper level system is more or less co-located with
the 850MB front, which is progressing very slowly southeast across
the area. The slow movement of the 850 front may be at least
partially attributed to the presence of a second upper low over
Baja California. For this reason, the slight chance POPs have been
extended into the evening along and south of I-20 based on the
expected position of the elevated front.

Meanwhile, the surface cold front which pushed through last night
has cleared all counties of the forecast area and will continue
to make its way to the upper TX coast tonight. The lingering
precipitation in the cool sector kept temperatures a little lower
than expected, with about two-thirds of the area remaining in the
60s this afternoon. The warmer conditions were either immediately
along the Red River where sunshine was occurring or across the
southern-most counties closest to the front. Anyway, the
combination of drier air behind the front and gradually weakening
ascent will lead to an end to the precipitation during the
overnight hours tonight. We will also see clouds decrease from
north to south this evening and overnight, with the majority of
the region in the clear by Tuesday morning. Dry and sunny
conditions will be the norm for Tuesday with high temperatures in
the upper 70s and lower 80s.

The Great Lakes upper low will deepen and sink south into the Ohio
Valley tomorrow and Wednesday, where it will then remain quasi-
stationary through the end of the week. This will lead to an
amplifying ridge immediately upstream across the Central and
Southern Plains. Subsidence from the ridge will provide nice
weather across the forecast area for the rest of the work week and
likely into the weekend. There will be a secondary frontal surge
Wednesday Night, which will help maintain the dry weather through
the weekend. Days will be warm and sunny with highs in the 70s
and 80s, while nights will be cool and clear with lows in the 50s
and 60s. The next opportunity for rain will occur around the
middle of next week as a strong mid latitude trough sweeps
eastward across the nation.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1230 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...continued MVFR cigs at KACT today.

North winds prevail at all the TAF sites in the wake of last night`s
cold front. North winds will continue through the valid TAF period
and are expected to fall below 10 kts this evening. Dry air
continues to slowly invade the region from the north. Through the
afternoon and evening hours, the southward push of dry air will
help lift cig heights. The DFW area airports are expected to
prevail low-end VFR this afternoon with bases between 035-060.
MVFR cigs at KACT between 1-2 kft at the start of the TAF period
will eventually lift above 2 kft this evening, and are expected
to be low-end VFR by midnight.

Weak showers continue across the region this afternoon with a focus
along the 850 mb theta-e boundary just north of DFW. As this
boundary continues to slowly sink south this afternoon, light
rain may occur at the DFW airports. At KACT, weak lift in the
elevated warm sector should result in light showers persisting
across Central Texas for much of the day. Will retain a VCSH
mention through 00Z at all the TAF sites with a Tempo for -RA in
the Metroplex as the line of rain shifts south.

Have removed the mention of fog from the TAF for Tuesday morning.
As drier air continues to invade south, temperature-dewpoint
spreads in the lower levels look too much for fog, and some cloud
cover may also prevent fog. There may be some light fog in places
but confidence in patchy fog affecting the airports is too low at
this time to keep the mention in.

JLDunn


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    60  80  60  86  62 /  20   5   0   0   0
Waco                60  80  57  86  60 /  20  10   5   5   0
Paris               56  81  56  86  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
Denton              54  79  54  85  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
McKinney            55  80  54  85  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
Dallas              61  80  61  87  62 /  20   5   0   0   0
Terrell             60  80  56  85  60 /  20   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           62  81  59  85  61 /  20   5   5   0   0
Temple              60  79  58  86  60 /  20  10   5   5   0
Mineral Wells       54  79  53  85  57 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

82/30



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