Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 300841
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
341 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Yet another MCS has entered North and Central TX early this
morning, bringing some severe storms and flooding to portions of
the area. 3AM radar depicts an MCV over Parker County, which
continues to generate heavy rain and frequent lightning across
most of North TX. Despite a fairly weak radar presentation,
activity associated with this feature has maintained cloud tops
of -70C or less, and this deep convection continues to be an efficient
rainfall producer. Elsewhere, a few strong storms which are still
ingesting some surface based instability are located in our
southwest zones near Lampasas and Gatesville, and these cells have
the ability to still become strong or borderline severe through
about 4AM. This line will continue pushing south and east out of
our CWA by late morning, but the intensity should continue to
trend downward along the way.

For the rest of the Memorial Day holiday, after activity departs
our area to the south this morning, skies should become partly
cloudy with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s, much like
yesterday afternoon. There will only be a slight chance for
isolated thunderstorms to redevelop this afternoon and have left
mostly 10-20% chances across the area. Should any shower or storm
manage to develop this afternoon, it shouldn`t be long lived or
widespread enough to completely ruin any outdoor plans to wrap up
the holiday weekend.

Early morning water vapor imagery depicts broad upper troughing
that has taken up residence over the western CONUS. This feature
will be the main influence for our weather for the next 7 days in
a slow-progressing pattern that will plague the region with
numerous opportunities for showers and storms all week. This trend
continues tonight when additional dryline convection is possible
in West TX. Most CAMs are reluctant to bring this activity into
North and Central TX, but with a moist and unstable airmass still
in place, I see no reason as to why another batch of storms
couldn`t find it`s way into areas west of I-35 again on Tuesday
morning. Have left PoPs of 40-50% out west with fairly low
confidence of convective trends this evening and overnight.

As the upper trough continues to deepen and drift southeast, it
will drag a cold front into the Southern Plains on Tuesday and
Wednesday. It looks like our first wave of storms from these
features will arrive Tuesday afternoon and evening as a complex of
storms in Oklahoma moves southward into North Texas. There may be
at least a low-end severe threat during this time with moderate
instability and bulk shear around 30 kts present in the warm
sector airmass ahead of the front.

The cold front itself will move into North Texas on Wednesday
bringing continued chances for widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms as broad upper-level diffluence accompanies the
approaching cutoff low. The frontal boundary will be slow to
shift southward, and storm motions will be slow due to weak flow
aloft. These factors will culminate in an isolated flood threat
for especially on Wednesday and Thursday as scattered showers and
storms continue. In this type of regime, it is impossible to say
who will get heavy rain and who won`t, and it`s also impossible to
pin down what time activity will impact a given location. In
general, there will be off-and-on chances for thunderstorms and
heavy rain throughout the entire middle portion of the week.
Abundant cloud cover and cooler air behind the front will act to
keep temperatures below seasonable normals.

Much to the disappointment of folks hoping for some quieter
weather, the GFS and ECMWF have drastically slowed down the
eastward progression of the upper low through the end of the
week. Both models now linger the cutoff low across Mexico and the
western Gulf of Mexico all the way through next weekend. This
will result in additional rain and thunderstorm chances on at
least Friday and Saturday, and have continued to raise PoPs
accounting for this trend. The trough axis is advertised to move
south of the area on Sunday, and 850mb winds becoming increasingly
northeasterly would mean that we would finally become cut off from
most of our moisture supply. Models will probably continue to
flip-flop on the timing of the upper low progression for the next
couple days, and while it is still unclear how long this trough
will take to move east out of our area, once it does, at least a
few days of calm weather will follow.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/
A thunderstorm complex will move slowly east/southeast across
North Texas and will impact the Metroplex TAF sites between 07 and
11Z. The storm complex will move into Central Texas toward
sunrise. Some MVFR ceilings will accompany the storms and remain
in place through mid morning Monday. VFR conditions will prevail
at all North and Central Texas TAF sites Monday afternoon and
evening.

A southeast wind will continue between 8 and 12 knots except for
stronger gusts in and near thunderstorms.

Additional thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon and evening
but confidence is low on the timing and coverage so will not
include in the extend portion of this forecast.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  70  85  69  82 /  30  20  40  60  70
Waco                89  67  85  67  82 /  40  20  40  50  70
Paris               87  68  84  67  79 /  20  30  20  50  70
Denton              88  68  84  66  80 /  30  30  40  70  70
McKinney            88  68  85  67  81 /  30  20  30  60  70
Dallas              89  71  85  69  82 /  30  20  30  60  70
Terrell             89  68  85  68  82 /  20  20  30  50  70
Corsicana           89  69  86  69  81 /  20  20  30  50  70
Temple              86  67  83  67  81 /  50  20  40  50  70
Mineral Wells       87  68  82  65  79 /  30  30  50  70  70

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

58/77



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