Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 240512
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1212 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

It`s been a dry but windy day across the region, with upper
level/satellite showing a more amplified pattern developing. An
upper level disturbance continues to dig south through portions of
MN/IA, while high pressure expands a bit further north along the
West Coast. This system pushed a surface cold front through the
region earlier this morning, which has pushed south into portions
of OK/TX/MO this afternoon. A tightened pressure gradient remains
in place over the CWA, sitting between high pressure over eastern
CO and the front which extends back north to a low sitting over
the western Great Lakes. This, along with cooler air advecting in
and increased mixing into strong winds aloft behind the front, has
resulted in sustained speeds 25 to 35 MPH, with gusts mainly in
the 35 to 45 MPH range, though this past hour Ord had a gust to 55
MPH. With the cooler air aloft and steeper lapse rates in place,
have had some diurnal CU develop across most of the CWA, and the
radar even has a few returns just to the NW. Debated throwing a
mention of sprinkles in for this afternoon, but there`s a sizable
dewpoint depression/drier air to overcome with temps currently in
the lower 60s and dewpoints in the mid 20s, so decided to keep it
out.

The dry forecast remains in place through tonight/tomorrow, with
models showing upper level flow turning northerly as the trough
keeps digging south toward the Gulf Coast region while a closed
close develops over the Great Lakes. Not much change in the
western CONUS ridging. Same can be said about the surface
pattern, with northwesterly winds remaining as we sit in between
the high to the west-southwest and low over the Great Lakes. It
will be another windy day, though not quite as windy as today, as
mixing potential doesn`t look to be as high and the wind aloft
aren`t as strong. It will also be a touch cooler than today, with
forecast highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Decided to go with a Fire Weather Watch for far southwestern
portions of the CWA for tomorrow afternoon (5 counties). Though
it`s a touch cooler, dewpoints will be starting out the day
lower than today, and anytime we have northwesterly winds (or any
westerly component), there is a concern they will mix out more
than models/guidance show. Forecast afternoon dewpoints are on the
low side of things, resulting in RH values dropping right down
near that critical level of 20%. RH values may be marginal, but
the winds needed (sustained 20+ MPH and/or gusts 25+) will be
there.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Looking through the long term period, the entire forecast remains
dry, with the main story being a notable cool down for the end of
the week.

The well amplified upper level pattern continues Tuesday night
across the region, but as we get through Wed/Wed night, flow is
turning more northwesterly to westerly. The pattern deamplifies as
the upper level low over the Great Lakes and accompanying
southward extending trough continue pushing east, while over the
West Coast the ridge axis is broken down and shoved back over the
ocean by the next system moving through western Canada. This
system continues sliding southeast, and by 12Z Thursday a trough
axis is shown by models to be moving through the northern
Rockies/Dakotas. It continues its southeastward push Thurs/Thurs
night, potentially taking even longer than that (into Fri night?),
depending on which model ends up being right. Well amplified
north-northwesterly flow then returns for the upcoming
weekend/Monday.

Models remain in good agreement showing that the atmosphere is dry
enough to keep the forecast precip-free. Its main impact on our
CWA will be the colder temperatures another windy day on Thursday.

Ahead of the front, Wednesday continues to be the warmest day of
the entire forecast period, with warmer temps aloft working
their way back in, along with downsloping westerly winds. It will
be brief break from the strongest speeds, with Wednesday topping
out around 15 MPH. High temperatures are forecast to climb into
the lower/mid 70s.

As far as the timing of the front goes, models aren`t in too bad
of agreement, showing it passing through all but southeastern
portions of the CWA between 06-12Z Thursday, and by mid morning
has pushed south. A tighter pressure gradient, CAA and stronger
winds (esp right behind the front) aloft w/ increased mixing looks
to bring another day of NW winds sustained 25-30 MPH and gusting
higher. Winds look to give us more of a break Fri-Mon as surface
high pressure becomes more of a player for our area.

As far as temperatures go, would expected a earlier in the day
high temp, with steady/falling temps in the afternoon. Forecast
highs currently sit in the lower/mid 50s for most, which won`t
feel great with those gusty winds. Friday will be the day with the
most notable impact on highs, as the cool surface high settles
south across the region. Current forecast highs for Friday are in
the mid 40s across NE/upper 40s in KS. Both Fri and Sat morning
are expected to drop into the 20s. Models show the brunt of the
coldest air quickly moving east of the CWA, with temperature
rebounding back into the 50s for Sat, and mid 50s to mid 60s for
Sun/Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

A few mid-level clouds will move southeastward across the area,
but will be primarily east of the area through Tuesday morning.
Otherwise mostly clear skies will prevail.

LLWS conditions are ongoing with the KUEX wind profile showing 50
kts at around 1000 ft AGL. This will be lessened some by
increasing winds around 09Z, but will probably still stay at or
near criteria until stronger winds start mixing down in the 12-14Z
timeframe.

Northwest winds on Tuesday are expected to gust over 30kts
through early Tuesday afternoon, gradually diminishing later in
the afternoon and into the evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
     NEZ082-083.

KS...Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
     KSZ005-017-018.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Mangels



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