Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 020001
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
701 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A PATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP FAIRLY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST DURING THE NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS STILL HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM WOULD HAVE MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. A
FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY SO EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF THE TIME.
WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE MORE FROM THE SOUTH AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO BE A BIT WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH MULTIPLE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TO START OFF THE PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WEAKER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO EXTEND FROM HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER WRN MEXICO N/NE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...PUTTING THE MAIN AXIS THROUGH/JUST EAST OF THE CWA. AT
THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO /EXTENDING INTO SD/ WILL KEEP
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO START THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW THE FIRST IN
A NUMBER OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SPARKING OFF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...GENERALLY ALONG THAT SFC TROUGH
AXIS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING POPS
DRIVEN BY THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THAT ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL BE
AIDED SOME WITH TIME BY AN INCREASING BUT BROAD LLJ EXTENDING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE HIGHER POPS REMAIN
ACROSS OUR NEB COUNTIES...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BETTER POTENTIAL
RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE/WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS. MODEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH THE
MAIN AXIS IS JUST OFF TO THE WEST. DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE...BUT SOME STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...ESP THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PLAYS
OUT...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WOULD EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY
LINGERING INTO THE MORNING TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST WITH
TIME...LEAVING A LEAST SOME LULL ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS SOME
QUESTION WITH HOW MUCH OF ONE...AS SOME MODELS LINGERING AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIP AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY. THE MAIN SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE CWA.
AGAIN...SOME QUESTIONS WITH EXACTLY WHERE THAT FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY
END UP. THINKING IS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME AROUND/AFTER 00Z...WHEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THAT SFC FRONT. FURTHER INTO
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. AGAIN
EXPECTING TO SEE AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY LINGERING AROUND THE
AREA...WITH MODELS SHOWING A BUMP UP IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES.
STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN A CONCERN...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT
LOOKING TO AGAIN PLAY A ROLE IN SRN EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY...WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING BEST CHANCES NEAR/NORTH OF THE NEB/KS STATE
LINE. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY/DETAILS TO WORK OUT.

FURTHER INTO THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...UNFORTUNATELY OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS
LOW...WITH A CONTINUED UNSETTLED PATTERN AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. AS WE GET THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...A MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST INTO TX BY FRIDAY...PUSHED
BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...BY
FRIDAY NIGHT SETTING UP NEAR/JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST. NOT A LOT OF
CHANGE IN THAT AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS...AT THIS POINT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE CWA WILL BE
SITTING ON THE EDGE OF THAT RIDGING/WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. ANY
DISTURBANCE EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THAT MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA
COAST MAY END UP SLIDING RIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN TRYING
TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF ANY POTENTIAL WAVES...AND RIGHT
NOW JUST CAN COMPLETELY RULE ANY PERIOD FREE OF POPS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SWINGS IN HIGHS
EITHER COOL OR HOT...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPING THINGS NEAR
NORMAL...MOST DAYS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

A PERSISTENT SHIELD OF STRATUS WILL EXIST OVER KGRI AND PERHAPS TO
SOME EXTENT KEAR FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING. THEN...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AS THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES...EVENTUALLY
THICKENING AND LOWERING CEILINGS TO IFR. THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION/THUNDER IS LOW ENOUGH OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT THERE COULD BE A STRAY
SHOWER AS THE AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET CROSSES THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER APPEARS TO BE LOW. WIND WILL REMAIN A BIT ON
THE GUSTY SIDE AS AIR TRIES TO MIX TO THE SURFACE FROM THE LOW-
LEVEL JET TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENSURE
MORE GUSTINESS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


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