Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 271053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
553 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Cirrus is moving to the east early this morning, but a  few
locations in the eastern part of the forecast area have some light
patchy fog. Visibilities have only came down to the three to five
mile range. Satellite also shows a few locations in the northeast
where there is some low clouds.

A surface high to the east of the area will continue to move to the
east during the day today. As the high moves to the east, the winds
will turn to the south/southwest and increase. Winds aloft are not
very strong so only expect breezy conditions this afternoon. The
south winds this afternoon will help temperatures rise to around 80
degrees. With the warm temperatures and the mixing of the winds, the
relative humidity in the western part of the forecast area will drop
and with the winds, have decided to add near critical fire weather
wording to the HWO.

The pressure gradient continues to tighten during the night. Winds
aloft increase to around 40 kts. Winds will remain on the breezy
side tonight. The winds will help to keep the temperatures from
falling off too much and temperatures will only drop to the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Above normal temperatures and dry weather will be the rule through
at least the middle of next week as an unseasonably warm airmass
resides across the region. While there will be
moving upper level disturbances riding over the ridge of high
pressure to our south...the trajectory of these disturbances will be
focused to our north...with dry weather expected to prevail locally.
While models begin to diverge late in the extended...we could
eventually see an upper level low track into the central plains
bringing a chance for precipitation back to the region next
Wednesday or Thursday. Either way...this low should help to
transition the upper level flow from southwesterly to more
westerly...allowing for subsequent upper level disturbances to bring
additional chances for precipitation beyond the current scope of the

Ahead of the main low expected to bring at least the chance for some
showers and maybe even a thunderstorm mid-week...temperatures will
generally run 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal norms through at
Monday...with a dry cold front expected to drop temperatures back
down into the 60s for both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. the  aforementioned upper level low will take a more
southerly track mid week...bringing the chance for some unsettled
weather late Wednesday or Thursday. With some limited instability
across our Kansas counties...opted to include the chance for a few
thunderstorms across the Kansas portion of our forecast area...with
only light rain showers forecast across the Nebraska portion of the

With the forecast dry conditions and potentially gusty winds
expected for Monday afternoon...we could eventually see near
critical fire weather conditions realized on Monday...but due to the
current marginal conditions in the forecast...opted to not include
this mention in this mornings HWO.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

There is still a little cirrus moving through the area. Just to
the east of the KGRI terminal there is some light fog reducing
visibility to MVFR. There could be a brief period that may have
lower visibility, but not sure that it will happen. It has not
moved to the west very far overnight. Later tonight there should
be some low level wind shear as winds increase.




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