Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 041155
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
655 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODEST LLJ ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERALL...EXPECT
THIS WAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH PRECIP
CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOONER. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS EAST AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE REALIZED...EXPECT A QUICK REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES TO UNSOCIABLY WARM LEVELS...ALBEIT LIKELY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS WARM READINGS.

AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHES BY LATE
MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
EVIDENT IN UPSTREAM SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. AS A RESULT...WITH ONLY
A MODEST CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPS...DECENT MIXING AS WELL AS A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE...WE SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE SEEING TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S...EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO ALSO CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN SPOTS AS WELL...BUT OPTED TO KEEP THIS MENTION OUT OF
THE LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS IT MOST LIKELY WILL ONLY
APPLY TO A VERY SMALL AREA CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...AND SOMETHING THAT IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS WAVE...EXPECT YET ANOTHER WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO CROSS THE REGION IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BECAUSE THIS WAVE IS
NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS THIS MORNINGS DISTURBANCE...EXPECT A
CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS LATE
TONIGHT...AND OPTED TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT OR
LESS AND CONFINE THESE CHANCES PRIMARILY TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH MOST 00/06Z MODEL
DATA...WHICH INDICATES SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

IN A VERY BASIC SENSE...THIS 6-DAY PERIOD CARRIES A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY/LOW-CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION DETAILS...BUT AT
LEAST TEMPERATURE-WISE CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THAT THIS
NOTABLE STRETCH OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HEAT FINALLY STARTS TO EASE
UP ON LABOR DAY MONDAY...WITH POTENTIALLY A FEW DAYS OF NEAR-TO-
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME NEXT WEEK. CERTAINLY FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY
THOUGH...THE HEAT STAYS ON...AS MOST OF THE CWA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF STARTING SEPTEMBER WITH 6 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90+
HIGHS...SOMETHING THAT DOESN/T HAPPEN VERY OFTEN DURING SEPTEMBER
(PLEASE SEE SEPARATE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR SOME MORE DETAILS
REGARDING THIS VERY WARM START TO THE MONTH).

STAYING WITH THE TEMPERATURE THEME...FORTUNATELY THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE CWA APPEARS THAT IT WILL MISS OUT ON ADVISORY-WORTHY HEAT
INDEX VALUES (105+ DEGREES) OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
SOME NEAR-100 HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN VARIOUS PLACES
ON BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY AND SUBJECT
TO SOME ADJUSTMENT...THIS LATEST FORECAST NOW HAS SOME HEIGHTENED
CONCERN FOR HEAT INDEX AT LEAST FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWA...MAINLY MITCHELL
COUNTY KS AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

TAKING AN OVERVIEW OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...FORTUNATELY
FOR THOSE WANTING RAIN AND WHO MISSED OUT ON THE SPOTTY AREAS OF
RESPECTABLE RAIN THAT FELL THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
MORE CHANCES TO BREAK THIS GROWING DRY-SPELL OVER THE COMING DAYS.
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NO "MAJOR" CHANGES IN
THINKING HAVE OCCURRED...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE "FLIP-FLOPPING" DID
OCCUR TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE 7-DAY AS SMALL PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) WERE REMOVED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY (AT LEAST FOR
NOW) AND WERE ADDED BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. OTHERWISE
THOUGH...EACH AND EVERY DAY/NIGHT PERIOD FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FEATURES AT LEAST A BASELINE SLIGHT CHANCE 20
POP WITHIN SOME OR ALL OF THE CWA...WITH THE OVERALL-HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE
FOCUSED DURING THE MONDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ASSIGN "LIKELY"
60+ POPS TO ANY LOCATIONS GIVEN THIS TIME FRAME IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...AGREE WITH THE LATEST
SPC DAY 2/3 OUTLOOKS COVERING THIS WEEKEND THAT THERE PROBABLY
ISN/T ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO ADVERTISE A "FORMAL" MARGINAL RISK
AREA WITHIN THE CWA AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING SAID...CERTAINLY
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL MAINLY WITHIN THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WITHIN EAST/SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG AND NEAR THE
FIRST MODEST COLD FRONT OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD. LOOKING OUT INTO
LABOR DAY MONDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST
"SOME" DEGREE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS
POSSIBLE...BUT THIS IS JUST TOO FAR OUT THERE STILL TO HANG MUCH
CONFIDENCE ON. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.

FINISHING UP WITH A LOOK AT DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS IN MAINLY 12-24
HOUR BLOCKS:

SATURDAY DAYTIME: THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PARENT TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PRECIP-WISE...WILL "ASSUME" FOR NOW THAT ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD OUT
OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE...BUT IT WOULD BE A CLOSE CALL IN NORTHERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY...VERY WARM/HOT AND
BREEZY DAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...BEFORE BRINGING IN ONLY
SLIGHT STORM CHANCES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. HIGH TEMPS WERE
RAISED 1-3 DEGREES MOST AREAS WITH MID-UPPER 90S MOST AREAS...BUT
DECENT COVERAGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS COULD TRY TEMPERING THINGS A
BIT.

SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT: THE GLANCING INFLUENCES OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND ANOTHER DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
OVERHEAD COULD PROMOTE AT LEAST ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
SPREADING THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS
OCCURRED THIS MORNING. HAVE 20-30 POPS ALL AREAS. UNLESS RAINFALL
COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...THIS VERY WELL MIGHT BE THE LAST
TRULY BALMY NIGHT OF 2015...WITH LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO HOLD UP IN
THE 70-74 RANGE MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SWINGS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...IT WILL AT LEAST FORCE A WEAK-TO-MODEST COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR MOST OF THE CWA...THIS
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PASS FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANOTHER VERY TOASTY
DAY OUT AHEAD OF IT...AND HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR-90
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 100 FAR SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE
MAIN RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY STRONG ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD FOCUS SLIGHTLY EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA...IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING.
HAVE POPS MAINLY CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: FOR THE FIRST TIME ALL MONTH SO FAR...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF 90
DEGREES...WITH 80S PREVAILING. DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE STALLING
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING NIGHT BUT HAVE LOW POPS AREA-WIDE DURING THE
DAY AS WELL.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: REINFORCING DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE NORTH
CONTINUES TRYING TO USHER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE CWA...AND
HAVE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF HAS MAINLY TRENDED DRY FOR THE
CWA...THE FORECAST CONTINUES HALFWAY DECENT POPS MAINLY PER THE
GFS SOLUTION. DEFINITELY SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS AGREE THAT
A FULL TRANSITION TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS REINFORCING
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER REGION. THE FORECAST LARGELY FOLLOWS THE GFS DEPICTION OF
LINGERING RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME AND THEN DRYING OUT
WED NIGHT-THURSDAY...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF ACTUALLY SUGGESTS THAT
THE OPPOSITE TIMING EXPECTATION COULD OCCUR...SO AGAIN SOME
POSSIBLE FORECAST ISSUES HERE. TEMP-WISE...AM NOT YET SOLD ON
TRULY "COOL" TEMPS ESPECIALLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT AT
LEAST FOR WILL ADVERTISE HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS SOME MARGINAL WIND
SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS TO DECREASE BY 04/14Z OR
SO WHEN SURFACE WINDS INCREASE FURTHER OUT OF THE SOUTH. WITH A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT A BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH SOME AFTER SUNSET...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 12 KTS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
-TSRA AGAIN TONIGHT...THE PROBABILITY OF THIS IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A FEW NOTES TO PROVIDE SOME PERSPECTIVE ON THIS ONGOING
VERY WARM START TO SEPTEMBER AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS
SITES (GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS):

GRAND ISLAND (CENTRAL NEBRASKA REGIONAL AIRPORT):
- THROUGH THE FIRST 3 DAYS OF THE MONTH...THE AVERAGE DAILY
TEMPERATURE (AVERAGE OF HIGHS/LOWS) WAS 81.2 DEGREES. THIS MARKS THE
10TH-WARMEST START TO SEPTEMBER ON RECORD OUT OF 120 YEARS DATING
BACK TO 1896...AND IS THE WARMEST FIRST 3-DAYS SINCE AN 81.7 DEGREE
AVERAGE START IN 1983.

- BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...IT APPEARS QUITE POSSIBLE (NO
GUARANTEE OF COURSE) THAT GRAND ISLAND WILL REACH AT LEAST 90
DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. ALTHOUGH
HAVING AT LEAST 6-CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90+ DEGREES DURING SEPTEMBER
IS FAIRLY RARE...IT DOES HAPPEN. THE LAST TIME IT OCCURRED WAS 25
YEARS IN 1990...WHEN INCREDIBLY THE FIRST 13 DAYS OF SEPTEMBER WERE
90+ DEGREES.

- MORE RECENTLY...JUST TWO YEARS AGO THERE WERE 5-CONSECUTIVE DAYS
OF 90+ HIGHS FROM SEP. 6-10, 2013.

HASTINGS (MUNICIPAL AIRPORT):
- THROUGH THE FIRST 3 DAYS OF THE MONTH...THE AVERAGE DAILY
TEMPERATURE WAS 81.0 DEGREES. THIS MARKS THE 9TH-WARMEST START TO
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD OUT OF 109 YEARS DATING BACK TO 1907...AND IS
THE WARMEST FIRST 3-DAYS SINCE AN 81.5 DEGREE AVERAGE START IN 1990.

- BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...IT APPEARS QUITE POSSIBLE (NO
GUARANTEE OF COURSE) THAT HASTINGS WILL REACH AT LEAST 90 DEGREES
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. ALTHOUGH HAVING AT
LEAST 6-CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90+ DEGREES DURING SEPTEMBER IS FAIRLY
RARE...IT DOES HAPPEN. THE LAST TIME IT OCCURRED WAS 25 YEARS IN
1990...WHEN INCREDIBLY THE FIRST 11 DAYS OF SEPTEMBER (AND 13 OF THE
FIRST 14) WERE 90+ DEGREES.

- MORE RECENTLY...JUST TWO YEARS AGO THERE WERE 5-CONSECUTIVE DAYS
OF 90+ HIGHS FROM SEP. 6-10, 2013.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH


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