Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 270929

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
329 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1230 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016 of 590 upper high slowly moves east into west
Texas during the day remaining nearly stationary tonight as upper
trough approaches the west coast. Any cloudiness would be limited to
cirrus level. Will have to monitor areas east of a line from around
Norton to Gove after midnight as boundary layer moisture increases
from the east possibly creating some low clouds and fog. Afternoon
temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s per 850mb temperatures.
Low temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Friday-Friday night...upper high centered over much of Texas and low
pressure off the northwest coast keeps the forecast area under
southwest flow aloft. Storm track keeps the better moisture north
and west of the area leaving us dry. High temperatures continue to
warm a few more degrees in mid 80s for most of the area. Low
temperatures remain mild for this time of year with mid 40s to low

Saturday-Saturday night...a cold front is expected to move across
the area during the day with breezy north winds. No precipitation is
expected. Afternoon temperatures drop back into the low to upper 70s
(north to south across the area) which is still 10+ degrees above
normal. Low temperatures look to fall into the upper 30s to low 40s
which is also at least 5+ degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Temperatures will cool during the latter part of the extended
period, but are expected to remain above average for this time of

West-southwest flow aloft carries an upper level short wave trough
east of the Rockies on Monday. The associated surface low
travels across the northern plains states during the day on Monday
with a trailing surface trough/front sweeping across the forecast
area. Cooler temperatures will follow the front across the
forecast area behind the front beginning Monday night and
continuing through Wednesday.

The more significant upper feature of this pattern is the upper
low that deepens over southern California by late Tuesday and
moves into the southwest U.S. on Wednesday. The GFS is more
progressive in moving this feature east of the Rockies on a more
northerly track than the slower and more southerly track of the
ECMWF. This low pressure system moves east of the Rockies and into
the southern plain between late Wednesday and Thursday. As it
begins to move across the Southern Plains, precipitation spreads
north and east from the southern plains into the central plains
and plains states.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 100 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
South-southwest winds slowly increase through the day with gusts
in the 25-30 mph expected. For tonight winds start from the south
around 8-13 mph then slowly veer to the southwest toward sunrise.




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