Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211727
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1027 AM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 201 AM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a long wave trough over the CONUS.
Within this feature a short wave ridge was moving over the Tri-State
Area.  Following the short wave ridge was another short wave trough.
At the surface a cold front was located over East Central Colorado.
Dense fog had developed to the east and south of Cheyenne County
Colorado near the front.

Today parts of Cheyenne County may have visibilities fall to a
quarter mile in the fog before 8 A.M.  The majority of the fog will
be south of Cheyenne County. Currently too little of the county is
expected to have quarter mile visibilities to warrant a dense fog
advisory, but this may change. Otherwise expect the cold front to
remain stationary as the short wave ridge moves through. Highs
will be slightly warmer than yesterday thanks to a fairly cloud
free sky.

Tonight the upper level short wave trough that is currently moving
over the Great Basin will deepen into a closed low over the Southern
Plains.  As it moves east some isentropic lift will move over
Greeley and Wichita counties, but the bulk of this lift will be
south of the Tri-State Area.  Placed in some low chances for
precipitation as a result.  As the closed low moves east it will
pull the weak cold front southeast.  The cloud cover associated with
the closed low will help negate the cooling effects of the cold
front, causing temperatures to be similar to last night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 201 AM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

Sunday the sky will clear as an upper level ridge begins to build
onto the Plains.  Highs will be similar to today due to WAA from the
approaching ridge.  In the afternoon northwest winds will become
breezy as a weak low level jet mixes to the ground.

Sunday night through Monday night the weather will continue to be
uneventful as the upper level ridge builds overhead.  Monday a warm
front will move through. Highs will be the warmest of the next week,
with some locations warming close to 60 degrees as WAA increases
ahead of the next upper level trough to move across the Plains.
Based on past days that were a quick warmup ahead of an approaching
trough, sided with the warmer guidance but the current forecast may
not be warm enough.

The extended period begins with a closed low that will traverse the
northern portions of the CWA Tuesday and Wednesday. The GFS and
ECMWF are in a bit of disagreement regarding the track of the low
thus confidence in the PoPs for Tuesday and Wednesday are relatively
low. Currently, the GFS keeps much of the CWA dry with only the
northern most counties seeing chc PoPs Tuesday afternoon. The ECMWF
brings the low further south, with chc PoPs extending south of
Interstate 70. Precipitation phase would likely begin as snow,
transition to rain briefly during the middle of the day and then
transition back to snow as CAA prevails during the afternoon and
evening. The blend came in with an awkward mix of ECMWF and GFS thus
I leaned toward the GFS given better track consistency. This being
said, even a small southward shift in the track would bring us
closer to the ECMWF solution thus bringing better snow and rain
chances to a much larger portion of the CWA. It is worth noting that
the Canadian model is even further south than the ECMWF and has a
track across the southern portions of the CWA from southwest to
northeast. Once this system moves east of the region on Wednesday,
we are looking at dry conditions prevailing through the weekend.

Temperatures through the extended will begin below average as strong
CAA will prevail Tuesday and Wednesday in the wake of the H5 low.
Highs will climb into the 30s to near 40 degrees across much of the
CWA Tuesday with slightly warmer temperatures to the southeast. The
entire CWA will see cooler temperatures on Wednesday with highs only
reaching the lower to middle 30s. A slow warming trend will take
shape as the weekend approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1027 AM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period at both KGLD
and KMCK terminals. Upper level system may bring flurries or very
light snow chances to the region, but at this time confidence is
too low due to limited coverage. A dry sub cloud layer may also
limit this to mainly virga. If a terminal was to see light
precipitation it would be KGLD based on current track, but
chances are still too low to include mention in TAF.

Winds will generally remain below 12kt through the first 12hr of
the TAF period, with the direction shifting to the north then west
as the weak surface front moves past both terminals. Winds then
increase after sunrise Sunday and a few gusts will be possible at
KGLD in the 15-20kt range (stronger towards the end of the TAF
period).

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...TL/JTL
AVIATION...DR



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