Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 282310

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
510 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Across the forecast area this afternoon...skies are cloudy with
temperatures remaining fairly steady in the 40s with an ESE
surface flow.

Currently much of the forecast area continues to see light to
moderate rainfall associated with an upper low moving slowly
eastward through New Mexico. Models still on track for slow
movement of this system eastward overnight and on through
Wednesday. An inverted surface trough associated with the upper
feature is helping to funnel surface moisture into the
region...enhancing area rainfall. Embedded thunderstorms do
continue to pop up in the current band shifting northward. but
with best dynamics remaining to our south...will keep mention of
isolated in through 06z tonight...picking up again by 15z-16z
Wednesday morning as the area receives increased instability from
diurnal heating.

For tonight though...looking for a drop in temps into the mid and
upper 30s for western portions of the forecast area...especially
for NE Colorado. This drop may afford some locales a change to a
mix of snow/rain showers that may persist into Wednesday morning
before going back to all rain. Based on temps will not look for
any major accum to affect the area other than a dusting at best.

Have also put in mention of areas of fog for the area starting
tonight carrying thru Wednesday.

For Wednesday...expecting showers to continue tapering slowly
from west to east as the upper low finally begins to shifts far
enough east to end current round of precipitation. Overall QPF
still looks quite nice in terms of area-wide numbers which will
see well over an inch for many locales...and more localized where
heavier precip/storms occur. Looking for high temps tomorrow to
again range little in comparison to today based on expected
clouds/precip. Looking for a range in the mid to upper 40s at

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

An active pattern continues in the long term period.

Wednesday night: Precipitation chances move out of the region from
west to east as the low pressure system departs the High Plains.

Thursday through Friday: Skies clear and temperatures warm as
shortwave ridging builds in on Thursday. Another system makes its
way into the Desert Southwest. For Thursday night, moisture filters
into the region as a lee trough develops. With moist soil, kept
mention of fog in the forecast late Thursday into early Friday.

Friday night through Sunday night: The next upper system brings rain
to the region once again. A surface low forms near New Mexico and
draws moisture into the area, generating precipitation chances
region wide. The system moves east late Saturday into Sunday and dry
conditions return.

Monday and Tuesday: Guidance indicates that there will be another
disturbance early next week that will bring more precipitation to
the forecast. Due to discrepancies with timing and track, confidence
in locations and amounts is low at this point.

Temperatures: The region sees a cooling trend at the start of the
period with highs near 60 degrees on Thursday falling to near 50
degrees on Saturday. This is following by slightly warmer
temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s for the remainder of the
extended. Lows generally remain in the 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 510 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

KGLD, am expecting cigs/vis from taf issuance through about 04z
to predominately be vfr as mid level dry slot moves in from the
south/southwest and precipitation shield moves east of the
terminal. Winds generally from the east gusting to 25kts. From
05z-10z winds back to the northeast and decrease to around 12kts,
mid level dry slot remains over the terminal with near saturated
airmass below. Cant rule out a few light showers and possible
reductions in visibility, otherwise should see vlifr cigs. From
11z-18z winds continue to back to the north-northeast at 15-20kts
with higher gusts, backside of storm system and precipitation
shield moves back over the area producing some light rain and
mvfr/possibly ifr cigs/vis. From 19z through the rest of the
period north winds gust around 30kts with area remaining in
wraparound light rain and mvfr/possibly ifr cigs.

KMCK, am expecting cigs/vis from taf issuance through about 04z to
be in the ifr category with light to moderate rain and winds from
the east near 12kts. From 05z-10z winds back to the northeast near
11kts with mid level dry slot over the terminal. Vis should rise
to at least mvfr possibly vfr category, however cigs will be
between mvfr/ifr ranges. From 11z-19z winds continue to back to
the northeast gusting 20kts with a few showers in the vicinity and
mvfr cigs. From 20z through the rest of the taf period wraparound
light rain moves in with north winds gusting 25-30kts and mvfr/ifr




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