Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 110940

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
240 AM MST Sun Dec 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 214 AM MST Sun Dec 11 2016

Today-tonight...a weather disturbance quickly moves across the
area during the morning and early afternoon hours from west to
east. Should see decreasing cloudiness from west to east following
its track. Pretty good moisture in the 850-500mb layer moves
across the area generally along and north of the interstate this
morning bringing a chance of light snow. Model precip types
suggesting at the beginning of the event we could see a few areas
of freezing rain and/or ice pellets with the snow before slowly
falling temperatures change any mix to light snow. High
temperatures generally in the mid 30s north to the low 40s far
south. Low temperatures in the mid teens to low 20s. A mostly
clear to partly cloudy sky expected tonight. North winds of 10 to
15 mph with some gusts expected this morning slowly decreasing
this afternoon. For tonight light winds become southwest 5 to 10

Monday-Monday night...should see quite a bit of sunshine with an
increase in cloudiness during the night as mid and high clouds
move in from the west-northwest. High temperatures in the low
40s northwest to around 50 from Norton and Hill City to Tribune.
Dry weather expected Monday night with lows ranging from around 8
degrees in the Trenton, McCook and Norton areas to the mid teens
across the west and southwest portions of the area.

Tuesday-Tuesday chance of precipitation comes during
the night as a weather system moves in from the northwest. Best
chance of light snow is generally along and north of the interstate.
High temperatures in the mid 20s far northeast and east with
mid/upper 30s far west and southwest. Low temperatures around
10/low teens.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 214 AM MST Sun Dec 11 2016

Wednesday: Guidance shows exiting jet streak on back side of upper
trough transitioning just north and east of our CWa and this could
provide a limited window for large scale forcing Wednesday and
Wednesday night before shortwave rebuilds aloft. Deep moisture is
limited and precip signal in guidance has been weakening with each
subsequent model run. I limited PoPs to Wed morning and late Wed
night based on where better overlapping signal is (still not great).
Trend has continued to show consensus favoring below freezing highs
and low teens for lows. I could see highs actually being a touch
lower than current blend depending on cloud cover during the day.

Thursday-Saturday: Below normal confidence during these periods
(even considering the time range) due to variability of models and
changing trends in the last 24hr. Latest guidance is showing a
stronger zonal signal and possible downslope event developing by
Friday, followed by split flow Saturday. Trend should at the very
least support dry conditions Thursday/Thursday night, but if current
guidance is right we may remain dry in our CWA through these
periods. In addition frontal timing has slowed down with current
guidance showing daytime/afternoon passage Friday. If downslope
occurs as currently advertised stronger lee troughing could result
in strong WAA and much higher highs than current mean indicates. In
fact current GFS/ECWMF 2m highs Friday are in the 50s.

Other than making downward adjustments on PoPs based on split flow
and weaker moisture advection, I chose to hold off on straying to
far from mean on temps. If current trend holds we will need to raise
highs on Friday. Arctic air mass is still advertised to arrive by
Saturday behind arctic front, but consensus has trended a "little
warmer" on H85 temps. Depending on clearing it still seems like a
return of negative lows is possible.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 240 AM MST Sun Dec 11 2016

KGLD, vfr conditions expected from 12z-14z then after 19z. From
15z-18z some light snow and mvfr/ifr cigs move in from the
northwest. Winds at the time of possible light snow generally from
the north around 12kts. Winds become light and variable around
sunset before establishing a a southwest direction 10kts or less
after 03z.

KMCK, will be advertising vfr conditions through the period. Winds
start the period from the northwest gusting near 20kts but by 17z
fall below 12kts. Winds back to the west around 6kts by 02z then
southwest at 5kts around 11z. Will have to watch the morning/early
afternoon cigs as models continue to advertise quite a bit of
moisture just above the sfc. Could be feedback from models as they
think snow is still on the ground.




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