Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 270115
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
615 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AS OF 2 PM CST...1 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION VARIED
FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP AND IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S WHERE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS REMAIN. WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND ON A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. WSR-88D RADAR DATA HAS NOTED A DOWNWARD
TREND IN RADAR REFLECTIVITIES AS THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FINALLY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. SNOW APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AS NO MAJOR DISTURBANCES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS
DECREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE/HRRR GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS SITUATION BEST SO HAVE LEANED ON THESE
SOLUTIONS. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ICE CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE LOSES SATURATION THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A DECREASE
IN PRECIPITATION. THAT TREND IS ALREADY BEING REALIZED. RAP
SOUNDINGS THEN INDICATE ONE MORE PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE ICE CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
DESATURATES. ATTEMPTED TO SHOW THIS UP AND DOWN TREND WITH THE POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN FORECAST DRY WEATHER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT WITH A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS ONCE
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL CALM WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BECOMES QUITE DRY BY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...AS DRY AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LEE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO SHALL LEAD TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WARM 850 MB TEMPS ALSO ADVECT IN SO EXPECTING A WARM...ABOVE NORMAL
DAY. ONE THING THAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT TOMORROW IS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A PERSISTENT INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE MAY
PREVENT SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ALOFT FROM BEING REALIZED AT THE
SURFACE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL BE PRESENT OVER CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO
AND SHERMAN...WALLACE...GREELEY AND POSSIBLY WICHITA COUNTIES IN
KANSAS. OVERALL...KEPT FORECAST WINDS LIGHT BUT NERVOUS ABOUT
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN. IF WINDS ARE REALIZED...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT MAY BE REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WIND FORECASTS ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND FROPA WILL LIKELY BE DRY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. FINALLY...ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EMERGE
ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. TIMING
AND AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM STILL VERY UNCERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT GLD AND SOUTH AT MCK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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