Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 170558
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1158 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SINCE THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 3 MORNINGS WHEN MODELS WERE FORECASTING
FOG...HAVE CUT BACK ON THE AREA/COVERAGE OF FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS. DID KEEP A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
WHERE THE SREF HAS ATLEAST 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF LESS THAN
A MILE VISIBILITY. AM NOT TOO CONCERNED AT THIS TIME ABOUT
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...BUT WILL SEE HOW THE
NIGHT GOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH THE
REMAINING EXCEPTION OF ERODING STRATUS EAST OF A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO
GOVE KANSAS LINE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHERE STRATUS
REMAINS. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO...SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR
FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED
LOCATION OF THE LEE TROUGH...POOLING MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOG TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
SHOULD RESIDE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM STRATTON NEBRASKA TO
HOXIE TO HILL CITY KANSAS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM...WRF NMM...AND THE RUC13 INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT BUT FOR NOW...DID NOT
PLACE DENSE WORDING INTO THE GRIDS.

FOR TOMORROW...WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED REGION-WIDE AS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CLOUD COVER AND LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE FOG SHOULD SEE FOG LIFT AND DISSIPATE MUCH QUICKER THAN
STRATUS TODAY. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE ECMWF...NAM12 AND WRF-NMM
DEVELOP A COUPLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. INSTABILITY IS AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF
CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG CAPE IN PLACE...WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG ENOUGH SHORTWAVE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM MODEL HAS
BACKED OFF ON WESTWARD PUSH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOW LIMITING IT TO AREAS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS...SIMILAR TO THE
06Z GFS. NAM VISIBILITY FORECASTS FOR FOG IN THE STRATUS HAVE BEEN
HORRIBLE THE PAST WEEK OR SO...OVERDOING IT SIGNIFICANTLY.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND VS SOUTHERLY THE PAST FEW POTENTIAL
EVENTS CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG SO HAVE KEPT IT GOING BUT BACKED OFF
COVERAGE JUST A BIT.

SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST WITH DECREASING
CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER AS INSTABILITY AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY CREEP INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA HEAD OF (AS OF THIS WRITING) TROPICAL
STORM ODILE.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMING A FEW
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 80S TO AROUND 90/LOW
90S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AS OF THIS WRITING)
TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST TO REACH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE BY 00Z SATURDAY WITH THE NAM/ECMWF FURTHEST
NORTH AND GFS QUITE A BIT TO THE SOUTH...NOT EVEN REACHING KANSAS.
FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 18Z TO AREAS SOUTH OF A TRIBUNE AND LEOTI LINE.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR ODILES MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TOWARD NORTON AND HILL CITY BY 06Z BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST AS
AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...COOLEST IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO.

SATURDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE TROUGH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER TUESDAY.

HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LATEST MODEL DATA
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST LOW VIS/CEILINGS FOR THE MORNING AT KMCK.
AM STILL HESITANT TO GO MUCH BELOW MVFR DUE TO PERSISTENT FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS...SO WILL GO TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MVFR.
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROBABLE THAN
IFR WHICH ADDS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGHIFR
SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY THAN MVFR FOR THE VIS. IN THE CLIMATOLOGY.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF WINDOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL


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