Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 290443
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1043 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

TRYING TO DETERMINE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE HAS BEEN
CHALLENGING TONIGHT. WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS WERE INITIALLY
CONSIDERED FOR WHERE THE SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR...BUT THIS INCLUDED
TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 DEGREES AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. CONFINING SNOWFALL TO DEW POINTS OF 33 DEGREES OR LESS
SEEMED MORE REASONABLE SINCE THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED WITH THE LAST
SNOWFALL.

THE ENVIRONMENT OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WILL HAVE NEAR ZERO
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WITH VERY DEEP STRONG LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC
ZONE FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE INCH PER HOUR RANGE. HOWEVER THE WARM GROUND SHOULD CAUSE
THE ROADWAYS TO MELT A DECENT AMOUNT OF THE SNOWFALL. FAR WESTERN
KIT CARSON COULD HAVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES BY LATE
MORNING DUE TO THE PROLONGED SNOWFALL ON TOP OF THE FEW HOURS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL LATER TONIGHT. AM EXPECTING THE SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO RAIN TOWARD THE STATE LINE AS DEW POINTS WARM TO
CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES. THE SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO FOR MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST
DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOWER DEW POINTS MOVE EAST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

ONE WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE LIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
PAST FEW HOURS PRODUCING SOME SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS
OF 10 MPH OR LESS.

FOR TONIGHT PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES INTO THE HALF INCH (WEST)
TO NEAR ONE INCH (EAST) RANGE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
AREA THAT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA FROM SOUTHERN UTAH. PLENTY OF LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. AM EXPECTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
INCREASE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY MID TO LATE EVENING
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CURRENTLY HAVE AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.10-0.15 INCHES FROM TRENTON TO
NORTON NORTH WITH UP TO A HALF INCH ELSEWHERE. AROUND/AN HOUR BEFORE
SUNRISE 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 1C ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3-1/2 OF
KIT CARSON AND YUMA COUNTIES OF COLORADO. THIS COULD/SHOULD PRODUCE
A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO
ARE POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...MID 30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AT
10 TO 20 MPH.

FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION WATER VALUES REMAIN IN THE HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH RANGE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAIN TO PRODUCE A
CONTINUATION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 1C
OR SO SLOWLY EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING ZERO DEGREE 850MB TEMPS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. THE RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW LINE EDGES A BIT FURTHER EAST REACHING PERHAPS A LINE FROM
BENKELMAN TO GOODLAND AND CHEYENNE WELLS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SNOW
IS IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF YUMA AND WEST/NORTHWEST
CORNER OF KIT CARSON COUNTY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
0.70-0.80 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS. RAW MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTS SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES TO START THERE WILL LIKELY
BE CONSIDERABLE MELTING WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOW AMOUNTS.
SO KEPT TOTAL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND SUB-ADVISORY. THE AREA WHICH
WOULD POSSIBLY RECEIVE A BIT MORE IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD
BE THE HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR FROM YUMA TO WRAY AND PERHAPS AS FAR
EAST AS HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN NEBRASKA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
WRAPAROUND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE 40S NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE WHILE OPTIMISTICALLY REACHING THE LOWER 50S SOUTH
WHERE RAIN WILL END EARLIEST.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW ON SUNDAY
WITH PERHAPS A BREAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. QPF WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RECEIVING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND 70S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. CEILINGS WILL FALL AS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEGRADE LATE TONIGHT...WITH
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING
AND LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

STILL WORKING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN WEST OF KGLD FOR
TONIGHT...BUT NOT TOO SURE WHERE HOW FAR EAST IT WILL BE TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING DURING THE
MORNING...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL


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