Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 281956
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LACK OF CLOUDS TODAY HAVE HELPED BOOST A LOT OF INLAND TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS OF 2 PM. WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEATING
LEFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE REACH 100 DEGREES OR MORE AT SOME
SPOTS. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK LIKE THEY ARE PEAKING IN THE 102 TO 107
RANGE THANKS MOSTLY TO LOWERING DEW POINTS. ONLY A SHOWER OR TWO HAS
DEVELOPED SO FAR UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE...BUT WE HAVE A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF HEATING TO GET SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT APPEARS
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTH THEN NORTHWEST SHOULD KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ON THE VERY LOW SIDE. MAYBE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WE COULD
SEE A LITTLE BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE (STILL CARRYING 20%
TO 30% POPS) AS A DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO EDGE INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLY BECOME A FOCUS AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISE UPWARD TOWARDS TWO INCHES. MODELS ARE EVENTUALLY BRINGING
SOME DRIER AIR (LOWERING DEW POINTS) INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES UNDER HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
(>108 DEGREES) EVEN THOUGH SOME ACTUAL TEMPERATURES COULD END UP AT
OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR A COUPLE DAYS IN A ROW.  42
&&

.MARINE...

ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT /INCREASING SLIGHTLY
ON EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT/ WITH MORE OF A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
BECOMING ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
WATERS. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY... INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS THIS HAPPENS AND ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY.
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND AND DIMINISH AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TERMINALS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... BEFORE A RETURN OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO COLLEGE STATION/SUGAR LAND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN AT
ANGLETON AS WELL AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO MENTION... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AREAWIDE AFTER 15Z THURSDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ANTICIPATED SEA/BAY BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND KEEPING VCSH MENTION
IN TAFS FOR TERMINALS ALONG INTERSTATE 10. OTHERWISE... SOUTHERLY
WINDS 7 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  98  78  99  78 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  99  78  99  78 /  10  10  10  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  92  82  92  82 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...14



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