Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 060858
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
358 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW
STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. PW VALUES HAVE
FALLEN TO AROUND 1.60 INCHES AND FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTN. THE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT AND SFC WINDS HAVE
NOT FULLY DECOUPLED. THE EXTRA MIXING HAS KEPT TEMPS ON THE WARM
SIDE SO A WARM START TO THE DAY IS LIKELY. IT WON`T REQUIRE MUCH
HEATING TO BRING TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 90S THIS AFTN.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.70 AND 1.80 INCHES BY
AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 87-90 DEGREES SO FEEL
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUES AFTN. CONDS
DRY OUT AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH PW VALUES FALLING BACK TO 1.30
INCHES. NAM 12 IS BRINGING A SWATH OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDS AFTN WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE DRIER AND
A BIT WARMER AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GFS/ECMWF SOLN. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO BUILD ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA INCHES
WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 90S AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW WEAK CAPPING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SHRA/TSRA.

NOT QUITE SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF FRI/SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST BUT SE TX LOOKS TO BE JUST
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND HEAD WEST. PW VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN
1.8 AND 2.0 INCHES. INITIALLY THOUGHT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
EXPANDING RIDGE WOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY ON FRI-SUN BUT CONSIDERING
THE HIGH PW CONTENT...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WEAK DISTURBANCE...
FEEL ITS BEST TO MENTION SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT. 43

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH SSE FLOW RIGHT
AROUND 15 KNOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT AND WILL MOST LIKELY NEED A SCEC. UPPER RIDGING OVER SE U.S. WILL
START EXPANDING WESTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD BACK WINDS
TO THE SE AND ESE BUT LIGHTER BY THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF OVER THE
COMING WEEKEND AND MAY END UP AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS IF ECMWF TRACKS CORRECTLY
AS SURFACE RIDGING MEANDERS INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE STRONGLY FAVORED THE ECMWF WINDS AFTER WEDNESDAY.
45
&&

.AVIATION...
MIX OF MAINLY VFR AND SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. ST DECK
EXPANDING INTO CLL AREA AND WILL PROBABLY REACH UTS/CXO BY SUNRISE. MAY BE ADDING
VCSH TO GLS TAF IN THE COMING HOUR IF STREAMERS GET ANY MORE ORGANIZED. TODAY
BE VFR WITH RISING CU BASES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SSE WINDS WITH LLJ ALIGNED FROM
WACO TO AUSTIN TO BROWNSVILLE. RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY SLIM INDEED BUT CAN`T RULE
OUT 1 OR 2 SHOWERS PROBABLY MORE IN THE SGR/LBX AREAS THAN IAH/HOU. TONIGHT LLJ
RETURNS TO NEARLY THE SAME AREA OR A FEW MILES FURTHER EAST...CLL MAY GET CLOSE
TO LLWS CRITERIA AFTER 03Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT FOR CLL AND PERHAPS
CXO/UTS.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  77  92  77  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  78  92  78  93 /   0  10  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  90  81  91 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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