Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KIND 231418 RRA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1018 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated below.


Issued at 341 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

High pressure is expected across the area early this week. A
frontal system will move through during the middle of the week.
Another frontal system may effect the area by next weekend.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 951 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Only made some minor tweaks to the forecast at this time. Will watch
temperatures as highs might be a bit too cool, but trends aren`t
apparent enough at this time to make any significant changes.

Previous discussion follows...

Dry conditions expected today as surface high pressure holds over
the Ohio Valley. Layered moisture fields off the models suggests
little significant cloud cover today.

Some surface wind gusts around 25 kts expected near peak heating
this afternoon based on low level wind fields and progged mixing

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs today are probably
too cool. Will raise the guidance highs a category.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Quiet weather expected during this period under dry northwest
upper flow and surface high pressure. A weak cold front is
expected to drop through the area tonight, but a generally dry
air mass suggests this front will be inactive.

Upper flow expected to back some towards the end of this period
as a upper trough moves into the Plains. Although there will
probably be an increase in mid and high level cloud starting
Monday night, it appears the precipitation threat with this trough
will hold off until after this forecast period.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance looks reasonable during this period. Little, if any,
adjustments planned.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Models indicate low pressure will track across the southern great
lakes late Wednesday and Wednesday night bringing a likelihood of
showers and isolated thunderstorms. This will be followed by a
weak area of high pressure which will move across our region late
Thursday and Friday.

Models differ some towards next weekend with the GFS and GEMNH
bringing another system our way late Friday into Saturday...while
the ECMWF is slower and keeping most areas dry until Saturday. Will
split the difference for now and mention slight chance of showers
west and south late Friday night and most areas Saturday.

Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal most periods
as a progressive somewhat zonal upper flow persists.  The one
exception will be Thursday with highs near to slightly cooler than
normal. Stayed close to super blend temperatures most periods.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 231500z TAF Update/...
Issued at 1018 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Forecast in good shape with clear skies this morning. No changes

12Z discussion follows.

VFR through the period.

Main issue will be southwest winds 15 knots and gusts to 25 knots
this afternoon as a moderate to tight pressure gradient occurs.
Low pressure will track across the southern great lakes as high
pressure remains over the southeast U.S.  A dry cold front will
push across our area tonight and winds will diminish tonight
as airmass decouples and pressure gradient lessens some late
tonight and Monday.

A few high clouds possible. significant clouds
or visibility restriction expected.





AVIATION...JH/RYAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.