Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 051051
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
651 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

WEAK BUT HOT HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...HOT AND
HUMID. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY DURING THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL ALLOW AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING...AS IT HAS DONE FOR THE PAST WEEK. A FEW SPOTS COULD
SEE AREAS OF FOG...AND SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE VISIBILITIES AND SEE IF AN UPDATE OR FOG STATEMENT IS
WARRANTED LATER THIS MORNING.

AS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WEAK LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND THUS FAR REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHORT TERM MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT OCCURRED MUCH EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND
THESE SAME MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME OF THE SHOWERS/T`STORMS
TO START SINKING SOUTHWARD AND/OR BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS SOME OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
TO THIS AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
SLOWLY DISCONTINUE.

THEN FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED
AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALLOWING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND VERY MOIST DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO WANE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG OF ML CAPE...ABOUT HALF THE
AMOUNT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY (FRIDAY) AFTERNOON. WITH ABSOLUTELY
NO OTHER FORCING MECHANISM PRESENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...POPS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE TO BE DIURNALLY CHARGED. COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER STILL
WARRANTS LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED POPS FROM ABOUT 1-2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. WITH THE FOCUS STILL MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAVMOS AS THE
MET LOOKS TOO COOL. BELIEVE THE MAV IS ALSO UNDER-DOING
TEMPERATURES PER THE LATEST TRENDS AND PERSISTENCE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. THEREFORE INCREASED MAVMOS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FOR
"PERSISTENCE" HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. WE ARE
FORECASTING A HIGH OF 92 DEGREES AT INDY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
MAKE FOR THE FOURTH DAY IN A ROW OF 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER. ALSO...WHEN
FACTORING IN THE HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THE HEAT INDEX
WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SINCE THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH ALMOST
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...PERSISTENCE FORECASTING WAS UTILIZED ONCE
AGAIN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS
THAT SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES (PER
MODEL SOUNDINGS) WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO ATTAIN...AND THE
INSTABILITY REALLY PLUMMETS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITHOUT ANOTHER
FORCING MECHANISM IT WILL BE HARD TO DEVELOP DIURNALLY CHARGED
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND HAVE THUS GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME.

A COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DROP IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
OF THE FORECAST AREA VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. LEFT IN LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AS THIS COOL FRONT FEATURE APPEARS
TO BE EXTREMELY SLOW WITH IT`S PROGRESSION...AND MAY ACTUALLY
STALL FOR A PERIOD BEFORE CROSSING CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ONCE AGAIN TRENDED TOWARD A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...AND LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY WORK IT/S WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING
THE LONG TERM AND A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER
ITS ARRIVAL TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. RIGHT NOW THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
STALLING. TUESDAY NIGHT ALSO HAS THE ADDED BONUS OF A 30-40 KT LOW
LEVEL JET TO ENHANCE THE FORCING.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO USHER IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S TUESDAY
FALLING TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

COULD SEE A BRIEF DROP TO MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE OUTLYING SITES
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT THAT SHOULD MIX OUT WITH SUNRISE. A
FEW STORMS HAVE POPPED UP NORTHWEST OF KLAF AND THESE ARE DRIFTING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST SO WILL INCLUDE A VCTS THERE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. SPC SREFS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO HOLD TOGETHER
ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY IMPACT KIND SOMETIME AFTER 16-17Z. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING OR PLACEMENT FOR EXPLICIT THUNDER
MENTION BUT GIVEN CURRENT RADAR LOOP...EVOLUTION OF STORMS
YESTERDAY EVENING...AND COORDINATION WITH CWSU WILL INCLUDE A VCTS
AT KIND AS WELL. PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT KBMG
AND KHUF AT THIS TIME.

APART FROM THAT SITES TODAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH MAINLY SCATTERED VFR
CU. DURING THE OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DROP TO NEAR CALM AGAIN BUT
FORECAST SOUNDS ARE NOT SHOWING LOW LEVEL SATURATION. GIVEN LACK
OF MUCH FOG AROUND THIS MORNING WILL COMPLETELY LEAVE IT OUT OF
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP


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