Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 051935
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
235 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED
SINCE LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SNOW HAS MOVED OUT AND CLEARING HAS WORKED ITS WAY TO ALL BUT
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES. BY NOON...IT SHOULD
BE SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.
STILL...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH MORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE GRAZING FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER OBS INDICATE HEAVIER SNOWS ARE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER.
SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS AT 08Z.

ALL SHORT RANGE HI-RES GUIDANCE MATCHES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH SNOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS ALREADY DONE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...WILL BE CANCELING WITH THE RELEASE OF THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 13-14Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL ISSUES WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUING DUE TO SNOW COVERED
AND SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE 2 TO 5 INCHES THAT FELL.

LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION BY LATE DAY. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
AND EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU AS A RESULT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS...COMBINATION OF 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT FROM -18 TO -15C
LATER TODAY WITH AREAS OF STRATOCU ALL BUT ENSURE MOST LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS. DAILY
RECORD LOW MAX FOR INDY IS GOING TO BE THREATENED. CURRENT RECORD IS
18 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1960.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY
FOCUSING ON TEMPS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

A WELCOME CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS LOOK
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...THE FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A
SECOND ONE APPROACHING BY EARLY SUNDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP
WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...EVEN ACROSS AREAS WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. THIS MAY HOWEVER MANIFEST AS A THICKER STRATUS
AND HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.

TEMPS...WIDE VARIANCE IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE SNOW COVER.
PREFER TRENDING COLDER AS WE HAVE RECENTLY CONSIDERING A BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. THIS COULD END UP BEING THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING
AGAINST US. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED...A SUBZERO LOW IN INDY TONIGHT
WOULD BE THE FIRST IN MARCH SINCE MARCH 9 1984. WARM ADVECTION GETS
GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPS
STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY.
A MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 210 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THEN SOAR INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING ALMOST
SPRING LIKE. THE PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. IT APPEARS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS
WEAK WAVE SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE LATEST
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION HAS COME IN WITH DRY CONDITIONS. AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES INTO THAT UPPER 50S/LOW 60S RANGE.

&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS AS AIR COLUMN MOISTENS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHERLY AND GRADUALLY
BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF
PERIOD...THEY WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/MK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

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