Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 230941
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
441 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND A 1026MB HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SURFACE FLOW WAS MAINLY EASTERLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEWPOINT
READINGS HAVE REBOUNDED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE PLOTS SHOWED A MOISTURE SURGE TO
EASTERN KANSAS...1.5 INCHES TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA....1.75 INCHES
ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...RIDGE
AXIS FROM NORTHWEST GULF TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND GENERALLY WEST
FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH AND LOWERED
THICKNESS LAYERS WILL INCREASE TODAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AND END MOST WORDING OF A COLD FRONT WITH THIS
PACKAGE. HIGHER PW VALUES AND SURFACE INSTABILITY OVER WEST ZONES WILL
YIELD AN INCREASE OF RAIN CHANCE OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND TO MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY. MOISTURE
WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AN EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST ZONES ON
SUNDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND OPEN GULF WILL YIELD
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A
MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST
AREA. TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLIGHTLY
DECREASE TO CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE NOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION STILL TOO HIGH FOR MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MINIMUM CLOUD DECKS ABOVE 3KFT. TERMINALS ALONG AND WEST OF A KNEW
TO KMCB LINE COULD BE IMPACTED BY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
BRIEFLY DROP VIS/CIG TO MVFR OR IFR CATEGORIES. VFR WILL RETURN UPON
SUNSET WHEN CONVECTION DISSIPATES. WINDS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE S TO SE AND AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU
MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER
WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT.
THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  69  86  70 /  20  20  50  40
BTR  85  72  86  72 /  40  20  50  50
ASD  86  72  85  74 /  20  20  40  40
MSY  85  76  87  75 /  30  20  40  40
GPT  85  75  84  74 /  10  20  50  40
PQL  85  72  83  73 /  10  20  50  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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