Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 050503
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1203 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VSBYS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE MORE
THAN MID LEVEL CU FIELD WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
SUNSET. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES THE NEXT COUPLE
NIGHTS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. SUN DECLINATION ANGLE WILL
BE FIGHTING THE COLD AIR AND KEEP HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

LONG WAVE TROUGH MARCHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG
AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY FORECAST WITH NO
CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY
AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD. THIS INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION. TOOK A COMBINATION OF BLENDED
MODELS AND MEX FOR FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH IS LOWER
80S. OTHERWISE...STILL NO RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE
ROLLING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ONLY MINOR ISSUE IS MCB WHERE LIGHT BR
COULD DEVELOP HOWEVER THAT RISK IS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT WAS LEFT OUT
THE TAF FCST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTH AT
KNEW.

MARINE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO.
PERSISTENT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS KEPT WINDS ELEVATED TODAY.
LOOKING INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THERE MAY BE LULLS AT TIMES BUT
WINDS WILL REACH EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE TIDAL LAKES AND SMALL CRAFT
FOR LONG ENOUGH DURATIONS TO EXTEND THOSE PRODUCTS THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH EJECTING EAST FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE RIDGE TO
MOVE IN AND BREAK DOWN THE WIND FIELD. THUS MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND
CALMER SEAS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...BLUE.
ACTIVITIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  76  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  51  78  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  52  77  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  58  76  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  53  77  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  51  77  54  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$



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