Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 271517
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1017 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated the forecast for latest trends on radar, satellite and
temperature/dewpoint observations. Southern stream shortwave
trough and strongly divergent upper level flow over southeast
Texas is trying to push into the upper ridge axis over the lower
Mississippi Valley. Another in a series of generally weakening
bands of showers and thunderstorms over the last day has been
pushing east across northern, central and southwest Louisiana
while some weaker light showers and sprinkles have broken out
across south central Louisiana this morning. Adjusted mentionable
rainfall (15% or greater rain chance) area a bit east towards
I-55, and raised the PoP slightly in the far northwest through
this evening. Warmer than expected overnight lows and clouds
complicated the hourly temperature and dewpoint trends, so have
made some adjustments.

22/TD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 819 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
The sounding still shows the broad subsidence inversion near 800
mb this morning. Storms to the west now are expected to weaken
and dissipate as they move east due high pressure in place over
the central Gulf Coast. Though high clouds blowing off those
storms will be with us today. Onshore flow at 15 to 25 kts from
the sfc to 800 mb has a summertime feel across the area... it is
that maritime tropical air. PW is at 1.59 inches. Winds are
westerly but relatively light aloft.

Krautmann

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Best lift and support for any sh/ts will remain over TX through
about mid week. As the tropical system moves into the east coast
over the weekend...it looks to stall for a few days. A deep late
season upper trough begins to develop and dig southward by the
start of the work week. This will drive the stationary troughing
over TX eastward and help bring rain chances up for our area as
well starting as early as Thursday. This is still a ways out and
rain chances will have to be continually evaluated over the coming
days.

LONG TERM...
If things work out like advertised...the weekend after
this...will be quite nice cool and dry.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period. While broken
to overcast skies are likely at times, cloud decks will be generally
above 5K feet. Rain chances are less than 10 percent for the morning
and afternoon hours.

MARINE...

High pressure will continue to dominate the flow over the coastal
waters through the rest of the week with winds generally out of the
southeast at 10 to 15 knots through the weekend. Seas will be on the
order of two to three feet. With the center of the high developing
over the coastal waters Monday and Tuesday winds will decrease
and become light and variable with seas of 1 to 2 feet.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  69  87  68 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  86  70  88  69 /  20  10  10  10
ASD  86  71  85  70 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  87  73  85  72 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  86  73  83  72 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  86  70  83  70 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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