Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 190551
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1151 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for the 06z TAF discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions near the airport minimum due to a combination of low
CIG and VSBY in fog are expected at KGPT through about 12z Monday,
and these similar conditions may also develop at KMCB by 11-14z.
Elsewhere, KASD and KHDC are expected to remain mostly IFR and
LIFR respectively due to low CIGS with conditions likely to
fluctuate given the patchy nature of the low clouds. KBTR and
KMSY are expected to be mostly VFR through the TAF period, except
for a period of MVFR due to some VSBY restrictions in BR during
the 09-15z Monday period. After a period of mostly VFR during the
late morning and afternoon hours, a return of lower conditions
down to MVFR and possibly IFR are expected to redevelop during the
02-06z Monday period due to mostly CIGS since winds will be
slightly elevated. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 707 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
The sounding this evening is still very warm through low levels.
PW is at 1.2 inches. Winds are southerly near the surface then
become more southwesterly aloft. There is an elevated inversion
near 700 mb. Only patchy fog is expected again later tonight thanks
in part to a well mixed boundary layer and nearshore waters that
are becoming warmer than several days ago.

Krautmann

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Warm temperatures will continue to be the rule across the area
thanks to a pretty pronounced high pressure over the Atlantic.
This ridge should keep us fairly dry from frontal boundaries for
the next few days. Onshore flow around the high will keep moisture
in the atmosphere and a few stray convective showers cannot be
ruled out any day this week. Guidance still points at a period of
wet weather for a large part of the country by mid week and into
the weekend. A front will approach and stall across the mid south.
This will bring a large area of the south some heavy rain. The
high over the Atlantic should keep our area out of the heaviest
rainfall, but the placement and the ultimate position of the
frontal boundary will still need some tweaking over the next few
days. There is a possibility that a few thunderstorms could
occur in our area on Tuesday but the best instability begins to
arrive Wednesday. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing
some heavy rainfall. Wednesday looks to also be the start of a
lengthy duration of heavy rainfall along the new frontal boundary
that will develop from Texas to Oklahoma/Arkansas and Missouri.
Again, daily rainfall chances will be elevated in the forecast
due to the uncertainty of the placement of the stalled front.
Overall expect springlike conditions to prevail through the week
thanks to that Atlantic ridge.

AVIATION...
Low clouds finally scattered out this afternoon between
18-20z Expect low clouds to redevelop tonight over much of the area
likely dropping down into MVFR and IFR status. As for vsbys again
the greatest impacts should be closer to the coast. GPT and possibly
ASD will have the greatest impacts with vsbys falling to IFR and
possibly as low as LIFR but again the greatest issue for all
terminals looks like low cigs. /CAB/

MARINE...
Holding off on a dense fog advisory for now but need to
watch closely. The waters are still relatively cool compared to the
warm moist air abv it and fog may initially develop this evening
but as winds increase overnight the fog looks like it will push
inland some and lift becoming mostly low clouds. Will continue to
show fog in the grids and zones. Return flow will really begin to
take hold of the waters tonight and persist through the week.
/CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  61  82  65 /  20  10  20  20
BTR  77  62  82  66 /  10  10  20  20
ASD  78  63  81  66 /  10  10  20  20
MSY  79  64  82  66 /  10  10  20  20
GPT  74  62  79  64 /  10  10  20  20
PQL  77  61  79  64 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


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