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000
FXUS63 KLMK 121911
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
311 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

FIRST PLAN ON CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY BEFORE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
GOES OUT. WINDS ARE STILL STRONG BUT BELOW CRITERIA ACROSS THE CWA.
THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND PLUMMET TEMPERATURES
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID TO LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH POSSIBLY RESULTING SOME
VERY LIGHT AND COLD RAIN. HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
STARTING TO INDICATE LESS OF A CHANCE OR RESTRICT CHC TO THE
NORTH. WILL MAKE THAT CALL CLOSER TO PRESS TIME. NOW SATURDAY WE
WILL BE BETWEEN A SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AND ANOTHER TO OUR SOUTH.
THE GFS STILL KEEPS QPF PAINTED OVER THE AREA HOWEVER THE
SREF...NAM...ECMWF KEEP US DRY DURING THE DAY. THEN THE CONSENSUS
FOR RAIN INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT. ALBEIT VERY LOW QPF AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. SUNDAY NOW APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS
WEEKEND. STILL LOW QPF FOR SUNDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING ON SUNDAY. THUS WILL ALLOW THE EXTENDED INIT
AND COLLABORATION TO WORK THAT OUT. IT WILL LIKELY YIELD LOW POPS
BUT OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF THE
MODELS AND RESIDUAL GRIDS. THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE DRY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE A COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME LOW POPS FROM THE
EXTENDED INIT FOR MID WEEK.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THEN WARMING
SLIGHTLY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
UPDATED AT 114 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN.  WE`LL LOSE THE GUSTS BY EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOSENS AND THE SUN SETS.  MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL SLOWLY LIFT.

THIS EVENING SDF AND LEX WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT.  BWG IS TRICKIER,
THOUGH, WITH A STRIPE OF SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS IS PROGGED TO STREAM THROUGH THE BWG REGION.  WILL BRING IN
SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND A VCSH FOR BWG THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THAT POSSIBILITY.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, THOUGH, SO
CHANGES MAY NEED TO BE MADE FOR BWG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE ALL SITES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WFO PAH
LONG TERM...PAH
AVIATION.......13