


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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324 FXUS63 KLMK 140648 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 248 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Remaining very warm and humid for most of next week with more scattered rain and storm chances each day. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning will be the main threats. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 248 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 We`re in a relative quiet period early this morning as evening convection has moved on, and we await the next subtle MCV coming from upstream clusters of showers and storms. Any lingering showers or a stray t-storm this morning will likely be initiated by what is coming out of the MO Bootheel at the moment. Later this afternoon, we do expect moderate instability to develop on the order of 1500- 2500 J/KG of ML CAPE, especially across our SW CWA which will have slightly higher Td`s, and may see a bit more sunshine. This is the main driver for the SPC Marginal Risk (wind) down there. Not overly impressed with severe chances, but can`t rule it out either. We`ll be situated beneath the right entrance of a weak mid to upper level impulse, and that combined with a weak surface front draped near the Ohio River should be enough to initiate scattered showers and storms once again through the PM hours. As has been the case, deep layer shear is pretty weak around 15 knots, however the moderate instability will likely be strong enough to support a few briefly stronger updrafts before they collapse. Overall, look for pulse/garden variety storms capable of brief heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. The bigger focus will be the continued high PWAT airmass (~2" through the column), which combined with slow storm movement can create some locally higher rainfall amounts. Overall, should be enough movement and scattered coverage to mitigate larger concerns. Temps will be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday given more cloud cover, and the weak frontal boundary impinging on the area. Looking for mostly upper 80s for highs, with mild lows tonight once again in the low to mid 70s. Convective activity should diminish later this evening past sunset as we lose surface based instability. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 248 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 The long term forecast looks very much like a "rinse and repeat" type of pattern that will promote mainly diurnally driven shower and storm chances each day. Even temperatures will behave fairly steady state as highs are expected to be in the upper 80s and low 90s each day, with mild overnight lows mostly in the low and mid 70s. These types of patterns are also patchy fog mornings, especially near water bodies and any areas that received previous heavier rainfall. We start Tuesday on the NW periphery of a SE CONUS upper ridge. Along this periphery, we`ll continue to see a slow moving train of weak MCV`s stretching from the Red River Valley region up through the middle Mississippi River Valley. This should be the main trigger for Tuesday which will most likely bring the best coverage of PM storms to our western CWA. AS we get into mid week, and then expanding into late week and the weekend, the upper ridge will suppress just a bit, and a belt of zonal westerlies will sink into our region. The end result will be a weak frontal boundary trailing an eastern Canada surface low that will sink down near or into our area through mid to late week. At the very least, this will act as a weak triggering mechanism, and may help to keep temps suppressed just a bit (still above normal). Overall, deep layer shear should remain pretty weak, so still expecting mostly pulse/garden variety storm modes. It is possible to get some briefly enhanced deep layer shear values with any weak wave embedded in the stronger westerlies aloft, however timing or having much confidence in any one time period is difficult at this time series. Bottom line is to expect a pretty typical summer time forecast with scattered shower and storm chances each afternoon among temps slightly above normal for this time of year. Plenty of sunshine will also occur during this stretch, especially each morning and early afternoon. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Most of the showers and storms have diminished this evening, however still have some light rain around, and a bit of potential for more development of showers and storms later in the pre-dawn hours. A weak frontal boundary is now expected to lift slowly back north and should reside in the general area of the northern TAF sites (KHNB/KSDF/KLEX). Here, we do expect lowering ceilings later this morning into the MVFR, or even brief IFR conditions). Could see some minor vis reductions near this frontal boundary as well. Ceilings are expected to improve back to VFR by early afternoon as the now warm front moves north of the area. Much like the past several days, we`ll then see isolated to scattered shower and storm development through the afternoon and evening and will keep Prob30 mention for that. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BJS LONG TERM...BJS AVIATION...BJS