Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 050759
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
259 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Impactful winter storm ongoing across the TAF sites. Persistent
moderate to heavy snow continues to slide NE under a powerful upper
level jet. Visibilities have mostly been around 1/4 to 1/2 mile
range in heavy snow, with ceilings below the IFR threshold.

SDF will be the first to see improvement, and will likely waffle in
and out of 1/2 to 2 miles as it lingers on the northern edge of the
precipitation shield. Expect to improve to low MVFR by 08z with a
continued steady north wind. Have light snow ending just after
daybreak, with a return to higher MVFR ceilings. Expect to go VFR
by early this evening.

LEX and BWG still have several more hours of 1/2-1 SM moderate to
heavy snow and IFR ceilings before conditions improve to light snow
around daybreak. Expect snow to end around early to mid afternoon
with MVFR conditions persisting at least through sunset. Steady
north winds will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........BJS




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