Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 242309 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
609 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs, VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals.
Skies will be mostly clear aside from a few high clouds moving
into the western and central portions of the state. Winds will be
light and variable for the evening and overnight hours, but will
increase to 10 to 15 mph during the late morning on Tuesday.
Higher gusts up to 25 mph are possible. Low clouds look reappear
in the forecast towards the very end of this forecast period and
will most likely be added in the next TAF issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017
)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday
Dry and warm conditions will prevail during the first half of this
period. Breezy conditions are expected on Tuesday afternoon, as a
south-southeasterly wind field increases in response to developing
surface low pressure across the central plains. Warm conditions
again expected on Tuesday, with afternoon temperatures expected to
average ten degrees above normal.

Conditions are expected to become active late in the period.  Energy
now approaching the Pacific northwest coast is expected to amplify
as it moves east-southeastward. Low level southerly flow is forecast
to transport substantial moisture to the region. A cold frontal
boundary is expected to approach by early Wednesday, and will
provide a pronounced focus for convection. Analysis of forecast
Q-vectors indicates a large dynamic response to affect the
atmospheric column across the mid south. Together with the frontal
forcing, conditions will favor the development of a linear type
MCS, with damaging wind gusts to primary threat with thunderstorms
that develop.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Main area of concern over the extended term is the potential for
severe weather on Friday, Saturday, and again on Sunday.

Warm front will be surging northward on Friday, with a broad
midlevel trof across the area. SE flow at the surface with a
westerly to SW flow aloft will make for a decent amount of
directional shear. Certainly concerned about the potential for
tornadoes with this system.

Warm front will become quasi-stationary across the northern part of
the CWA on Saturday, or possibly just north of the area. The models
are having quite a bit of difficulty deciding just where this system
is going to stall out. By Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, a
cold front will start pushing into the area, and I would anticipate
this will result in a squall line moving across the area. It is a
bit far out to determine if there will be any discrete supercells
ahead of the squall line, but in setups like this I am certainly
concerned about that possibility.

By Sunday the focus will shift into eastern AR as the system pushes
out of our forecast area.

Models show PWAT values up to an inch above normal as the warm
sector surges over us on Friday. With slow moving frontal systems,
and the potential for training thunderstorms, there will certainly
be a risk for flooding and/or flash flooding during this time frame.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...CROSS


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