Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 260947
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
347 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday

Upper level flow will be fairly zonal across the continental US
today, with a few distinguishable shortwaves embedded. The one of
significance to Arkansas is just coming onto the California coast
this morning as evident by water vapor satellite imagery. This
will shift from California this morning, to Oklahoma by midnight
tonight, and will be responsible for some showers and
thunderstorms developing in Arkansas late this evening and into
the overnight hours. As the influence of a dry polar air mass and
the associated surface high continue to shift east away from
Arkansas today, a southerly flow regime will spread back across
the state. As the air mass slowly begins to moisten ahead of the
approaching shortwave, some elevated convection is forecast to
develop. Some showers may be evident across western Arkansas
around dinner time this evening, but better rainfall chances will
exist late tonight close to and southeast of the I-30/US-67
corridor, or along/southeast of a De Queen to Jonesboro line.
Severe storms are not expected, but would not be surprised to see
some stronger storms with small hail.

As the shortwave passes to the east of Arkansas Monday morning,
convection should follow suite, resulting in a general lull in
rainfall potential during the morning hours Monday. However, will
continue to see at least a small chance for showers and isolated
thunder on Monday as a deep moist return pattern coupled with warm
surface temperatures and weak disturbances aloft provides some
impetus for shower development on during the afternoon and evening
hours.

On the temperature front, well above normal conditions are
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

Primary issues in the long term are near-record high temperatures on
Tuesday, and severe weather chances Tuesday and Wednesday. But, I`ll
come back to that.

Entire area should be in the warm sector as we begin the period.
Deepening surface low pressure out in the plains will drag a cold
front toward the region. The increased pressure gradient will result
in gusty winds as the front approaches.

Several waves will lift out in the mean flow ahead of the front.
This, along with increasing low level moisture, will allow for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop by Tuesday afternoon
and evening. As the low level jet gets going on Tuesday evening and
into the night, thunderstorms should become more widespread. Frontal
boundary should move into the state early Wednesday morning, and out
during the afternoon.

High pressure will follow the front, along with cooler temperatures.
Readings should be closer to average to close the work week, though
temperatures will gradually moderate by Saturday, as the high shifts
eastward, and winds reacquire a southerly component. In most areas,
guidance is showing lows in the 30s again. Some temperatures near
freezing are possible in at least the north and west. Remember,
winter is not quite over yet. Now if we could ever get the moisture
and cold to line up. Hey, I can dream, can`t I?

Now, back to the primary issues.

With strong warm advection in place, readings could come close to
record high temperatures on Tuesday afternoon. This will all depend
on cloud cover, which could blow the lid off of my forecast either
way.

With plenty of instability and low level moisture, and increasing
shear as the front gets closer, severe thunderstorms will be
possible. At this point, it looks like there will be cells ahead of
the front on Tuesday evening, which will translate northeastward. As
the front gets into Arkansas, it will provide additional lift, with
a line of storms forming along or ahead of it.

Forecast soundings show a low level jet kicking in during the
afternoon and evening hours, not to mention healthy lapse rates.
This would yield a hail and wind threat ahead of the front.
Depending on how much backing of the wind occurs ahead of the front,
we could see a tornadic threat window some time in the late
afternoon and early evening hours. As the line develops along/ahead
of the front, wind damage would become the primary concern with any
severe storms.

Severe threat will wane in the wake of the frontal passage, and
should be over by early to mid afternoon, unless the boundary slows
down significantly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     55  43  60  55 /  10  80  20  40
Camden AR         64  50  71  60 /  10  80  40  30
Harrison AR       53  39  61  53 /  20  40  20  10
Hot Springs AR    58  46  64  58 /  20  80  40  30
Little Rock   AR  59  47  64  58 /  10  80  30  40
Monticello AR     62  52  69  62 /   0  70  60  50
Mount Ida AR      58  46  63  57 /  20  80  40  20
Mountain Home AR  53  40  60  53 /  20  50  20  20
Newport AR        55  44  60  56 /  10  80  20  50
Pine Bluff AR     60  49  66  60 /  10  80  40  40
Russellville AR   57  44  62  54 /  20  70  30  30
Searcy AR         56  44  62  56 /  10  80  30  40
Stuttgart AR      59  47  63  59 /  10  80  40  40
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...64 / Long Term...57


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