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000
FXUS64 KLZK 250249
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
949 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.UPDATE...
HRRR has backed off on the small rain chances over the SE on the
latest run or two but a few very weak returns are showing up on
radar at this time. Temp/dew point spreads are in excess of 10
degrees where the echoes are showing up so most likely nothing
more than sprinkles are hitting the ground.

With weak short wave still expected to move through and into an
area that is a little more moist, will keep the silent precip
chances going. Remainder of the forecast also looks good with only
a tweak or two needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 639 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017)

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through the period as weak high
pressure is located to the north. Only mid to high level moisture
prevails with generally light winds.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017
)

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday

The CDFNT that brought the active wx to AR on Fri/Fri night, was
located well S of AR this aftn. NLY sfc winds behind the fnt contd
to usher much drier air into the region, as noted by SFC dewpoints
ranging fm the mid 50s to mid 60s. At the same time just 24 hours
ago, we were looking at dewpoints in the mid 70s to arnd 80 degrees.
Meanwhile, a good bit of mainly high lvl clouds have kept mid aftn
readings generally in the 70s.

Hi-Res model data does show some potential for small rain chcs late
tngt ovr the SE half of the FA, as a weak upr short wv passes acrs
the area. With much drier airmass in place in the low lvls, plan to
not mention any POPS tngt ATTM, but wl let evening shift monitor
later model data.

Otherwise, still looking at a mostly dry fcst thru the PD sfc high
pres prevails. We will see a NWLY flow aloft cont as well thanks to
a broad upr trof ovr the ERN half of the nations, with an upr rdg
persisting ovr the Rockies. Small chcs for convection wl return to
the fcst ovr NRN AR later on Mon, as a weak upr impulse drops SEWD
towards the state. Temps wl cont below seasonal norms the next few
days, which is not often mentioned for AR in late June.

LONG TERM...Monday Night through Saturday

The extended period will start with high pressure at the surface and
aloft over the region. This will bring dry conditions, mostly sunny
skies with highs a bit below normal. On Wednesday, the surface high
pressure is forecast to move east of AR, as a return south flow
comes back to AR. Some weak upper energy is possible in northwestern
AR areas, and with an approaching surface system in the plains, a
slight chance of convection may develop. But at this time kept the
chance of rain low due to uncertainty. On Thursday, a bit better
chance of convection may be possible, as better upper short wave
energy and improved south flow sets up into AR. The heating in the
afternoon and early evening will be the best chances, but again only
a 20 to 40 percent chance is forecast. Friday and into the weekend,
models do show the best upper lift and a possible frontal system to
sag closer to possibly into AR, and this would bring the best chance
of convection.

As mentioned, temperatures will start mild for this time of year,
with lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s. A gradually warming trend
and increase in humidity will be seen as the week continues.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

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