Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 301105 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Only some very patchy fog was observed this morning...and what
fog is ongoing will clear over the next hr or two. Expect mainly
VFR conditions for much of the day...though there will be some
isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA possible through this evening. As
a result...have mentioned VCTS for most sites...with some TEMPO
groups where chances will be a bit higher for precip. Overnight
tonight...some chances for precip will remain possible...so have
continue VCTS as a result.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 217 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

Weak...nearly zonal flow aloft will be ongoing across the state this
Mon...keeping conditions similar to what was observed on Sun. As a
result...expect some isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA...with
best chances in the afternoon hrs during the peak heating of the
day. While widespread severe weather is not expected...an isolated
strong to SVR storm could be seen...with large hail and damaging
winds the primary threats expected. Some locally heavy rainfall
could also be seen. Highs will once again be in the 80s to low 90s.

Chances for precip will be slightly lower overnight tonight...but may
still see a lingering SHRA or TSRA. Lows will dip down into the 60s
to low 70s by Tue morning. Flow aloft will transition to a more
SWRLY direction by Tue afternoon...though remaining fairly weak.
There may be a weak upper wave lift NE in this SW flow aloft...which
may trigger a bit more organized convective activity Tue afternoon
and evening. Even if the upper wave won`t be strong enough for
organized activity...some isolated to scattered afternoon/early
evening convection will again be possible. Expect similar potential
for SVR WX...with generally only isolated strong to SVR storms
possible.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

Frontal boundary will move into Arkansas around Wednesday, with
showers and thunderstorms becoming likely. The front will hit upper
ridging anchored over the central gulf coast region, and will slow
down or stall. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into
Thursday, as several upper level waves will move through and
interact with the quasi-stationary boundary.

One thing that will act to keep precipitation chances in the forecast
will be a cutoff upper low developing near or a little west of the
region by the end of the week. The low will sink southward a bit
during the weekend, which will in turn allow the frontal boundary to
move southward. Rain chances will decrease from the northwest, but
will persist in the southeast half. Temperatures near and behind the
boundary will be much close to or a little below seasonal averages.

Any strong storms or heavy rain issues during the period should be
localized in nature. The greatest chance for strong storms would be
on Wednesday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


&&

$$


Aviation...62



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