Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 222325 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME AREAS OF -SHRA ARE SPREADING EAST INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE EARLY THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE LATER THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS ARE
REMAINING VFR UNDER THIS RAINFALL...THOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS COULD BE
SEEN BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DISSIPATES OVER TIME. A BREAK
IN THE PRECIP WILL BE SEEN FOR THE MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HRS ON
SAT...BUT A NEW WAVE OF PRECIP WILL BE SEEN SAT EVENING AND NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...

UPPED POPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA
HOLDING TOGETHER LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. EVEN SO...
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. (46)

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MAIN STORY WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE EXPECTED RAINFALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THE RESULTING FLASH FLOOD AND RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL.

LIGHT RAINFALL OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE
EAST...BUT HAVING A HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE EAST WINDS AND LARGER
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS IN ACROSS WESTERN
ARKANSAS FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
WITH TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A MARKED
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. DEW POINTS WILL JUMP 10-15 DEGREES DURING THE
DAY...AND BRING MUGGIER CONDITIONS TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...AND WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH OKLAHOMA. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW THE
SYSTEM...AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST BACK BY A FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...IN A VERY SIMILAR SETUP EARLIER THIS MONTH...RAINFALL
MOVED EAST FASTER THAN GUIDANCE INDICATED...SO HAVE COMPROMISED WITH
KEEPING SOME POPS FARTHER EAST.

WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE...PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE RANGE
OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL OF AROUND AN INCH THIS
TIME OF YEAR. ALSO...SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED...AND WITH MANY
RIVERS AND STREAMS STILL FULL/FLOODING...ANY RAIN WILL PRODUCE
RUNOFF VERY QUICKLY. HAVE KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE THE FLOODING THREAT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY EXPANSION OF COUNTIES THAT ARE NEEDED.

EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...AND HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE
EURO AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
RED RIVER AND MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO
THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RAIN EXPECTED FOR AR. TUESDAY
WILL BE THE DAY WITH THE EXPECTED HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LONG
TERM. THIS SYSTEM MOVES NE DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S...WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE DOES BUILD IN A BIT THURSDAY AND WILL SEE A LOWER CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER AR BEING BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ON FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE THE NEXT
UPPER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND BRINGING
MORE CHANCES OF RAIN TO AR. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CONCERN OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOOD AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL START A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE HIGH
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK TO NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF UPPER SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND LATER FORECASTS WILL FINE TUNE THESE
DIFFERENCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  78  65  79 /  10  10  20  60
CAMDEN AR         58  83  69  82 /  10  20  20  60
HARRISON AR       54  75  63  75 /  20  20  60  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    57  80  68  80 /  10  20  30  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  57  81  67  82 /  10  10  20  60
MONTICELLO AR     58  82  69  84 /  10  10  20  50
MOUNT IDA AR      56  78  69  77 /  20  20  50  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  76  63  77 /  10  20  40  70
NEWPORT AR        56  79  66  81 /  10  10  20  60
PINE BLUFF AR     57  81  68  82 /  10  10  20  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  79  67  79 /  20  20  40  70
SEARCY AR         55  79  65  81 /  10  10  20  60
STUTTGART AR      57  81  68  83 /  10  10  20  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR BOONE-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...62




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