


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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493 FXUS64 KLZK 151717 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 -Chances for rain and thunderstorms will slowly diminish through mid-week. -Temperatures are expected to increase to above-normal values over much of the state, with hazardous heat returning by mid-week and persisting through much of the week ahead. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Current mosaic radar imgry depicted lingering precip activity acrs Wrn AR. Most short-term guidance remains indicative of additional development of overnight thunderstorms over the N/Wrn half of the FA thru into later Tues mrng. QPF progs w/ this activity are also continuing to advertise a few streaks of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall w/ some stronger storms, which could yield some isolated flooding potential, but a more widespread flooding threat is not currently anticipated. Thru the week ahead, the main message wl shift towards hazardous heat persisting over the FA. H500 anticyclonic flow is progged to expand over much of the Srn Cntrl US, w/ a synoptic cdfrnt stalling over the Cntrl Plains near mid-week, and residing as a stationary frnt thru the remainder of the work week. Prior to the arrival of this stalled frnt, daily rain chances wl dwindle to primarily diurnally driven convective activity, w/ more prominent rain chances returning to Nrn AR by Fri invof the aforementioned stalled frnt. The next few days (particularly Wed and Thurs) are expected to host hot aftn temps in the upper 90s acrs the Srn two-thirds of the state, w/ higher humidity levels corresponding to peak heat index values in excess of 105 degrees, necessitating the potential for heat headlines once again. Despite incrsg rain chances on Fri, any potential cool down looks to stay brief, w/ hazardous heat resuming thru the weekend and remainder of the PD. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The northern sites of KHRO and KBPK may experience VCSH for the first few hours of the forecast period. Additionally, lowered CIGS to MVFR flight category can be expected for these first few hours. Elsewhere across the remaining sites, expect VFR flight category for the entire forecast period from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 74 95 75 97 / 10 30 0 10 Camden AR 74 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 72 91 72 92 / 10 30 0 20 Hot Springs AR 74 96 73 99 / 10 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 76 97 77 99 / 10 10 0 0 Monticello AR 76 98 77 98 / 10 0 0 10 Mount Ida AR 73 94 72 97 / 10 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 71 91 72 93 / 10 40 0 20 Newport AR 75 96 76 97 / 10 20 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 75 97 76 97 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 73 95 73 97 / 20 10 0 10 Searcy AR 73 96 74 97 / 10 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 76 96 77 97 / 10 10 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ007-008-016- 017-025-031>034-039-042>047-053>057-062>069. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...74