Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 291754 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1254 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered convection will continue to blossom across the state
this afternoon. Expect most sites to see at least VCSH/VCTS if not
actual TEMPO -SHRA/-TSRA this afternoon and evening. Have this
accounted for in the TAFs, with a relatively short period of
convection at most sites. Northwesterly upper flow will continue
across the region this evening and into Saturday...which will keep
a chance for MCS activity in the forecast for Arkansas tonight and
Saturday. Not sold on some depictions of nearly constant
convection across central and western Arkansas overnight so felt
more confident with VCSH mentioned at central and northern sites
from around 12z through the end of the TAF period. Feel very
confident in storms being present after 10z-12z time frame...but
not confident in how widespread they will be or what terminals
they will be affecting so thought the VCSH approach was best.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 341 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016)

DISCUSSION...

Short Term...Today through Saturday night

All short term / high resolution models continue to show unsettled
conditions continuing through the period with the possibility of
mesoscale convective systems moving through both Friday and Saturday
nights. Models are actually in good agreement as far as timing is
concerned but rainfall amounts are all over the place with the NAM
seemingly way overdone on its QPF.

Upper pattern dominated at this time by upper level high pressure
sitting over the four corners and a broad mid level trough over the
upper mid west through the Ohio Valley. On the surface, a quasi
stationary boundary will remain in the vicinity of the Arkansas and
Missouri border.

Models all continue to support the idea of generally weak, nocturnal
disturbances moving through the prevailing flow and interacting with
a moisture choked airmass characterized by PWATS hovering around 2
inches. If these meso scale systems do come to fruition, locally
heavy rain can not be excluded. The aforementioned surface boundary
will begin to lift north Saturday night and better precipitation
chances will shift that way in response. Temperatures will average
close to seasonal norms.

Scattered convection occurring at this time over northwest Arkansas
in advance of a more significant area of precipitation moving into
central Kansas. Both the HRRR and ARW solutions have this area of
rain expanding as it moves into the CWA later this morning and into
the afternoon. As a result, precip chances will be brought into the
high scattered category.

Will need to carry precipitation chances through the period not only
for the possible MCS development at night but also for the myriad
of meso scale boundaries currently lurking, and possible new ones
being introduced by any convection.

Long Term...Sunday through Friday

The extended period will start with a ridge of high pressure across
the southern U.S. This high will expand northward through Monday and
Tuesday. By Wednesday the high will be over much of the U.S...and
this will continue into Friday.

The pseudo-stationary front over southern Missouri on Sunday will
move back to the north Monday through Wednesday. This will lead to
lower precipitiaton chances for next week as well as warmer
temperatures. After highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s Sunday,
temperatures will return to the lower to mid 90s Monday through
Friday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

64
Aviation...99


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