Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 300502
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1202 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.UPDATE...

Showers have dissipated.  Partly cloudy skies mainly north areas.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

Scattered clouds 4-7 thsd ft tonight. A very similar setup
expected on Tuesday. Breezy winds, increasing VFR clouds, and an
afternoon chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur
once again tomorrow.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 915 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017)

UPDATE...

A Small area of thunderstorms was exiting the southern Milwaukee
area. isolated showers ending.

MARINE...

A Small area of thunderstorms was moving across the near shore
and open waters between north point light house and wind point.
gusts to 35 knots still possible til 10 pm. Otherwise gusty west
winds have diminished. Could see gusts to near 25 knots on Tuesday
again and may need another advisory. Gusts to around 20 knots are
likely Wednesday, staying just under advisory levels.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 713 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017)

UPDATE...

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will diminish this
evening.

Clouds will decrease overnight, with a very similar setup expected
on Tuesday. Breezy winds, increasing VFR clouds, and an afternoon
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur once
again tomorrow.

MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory has expired as the gusty west winds have
begun to diminish Could see gusts to near 25 knots on Tuesday
again and may need another advisory. Gusts to around 20 knots are
likely Wednesday, staying just under advisory levels.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 329 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Tuesday...Forecast confidence is high:

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will slide into the
area mid to late afternoon, winding down early this evening.
Clouds will linger into the evening, with some clearing expected
overnight.

Tomorrow will be very similar to today as another wave moves
through. Expect increasing clouds, with another round of afternoon
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Winds will be breezy
again as well, though probably a tad less than today. Temps
tomorrow will be fairly similar, maybe a couple degrees cooler
than today.

LONG TERM...

Wednesday... Forecast confidence is high.

The trough with that upper low will shift off to the east and
southern WI will have dry weather with plenty of sunshine and
lighter west winds on Wednesday.

Thursday through Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A warm front will lift northeast into southern WI Thursday
afternoon and evening. This will be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms all the way through Friday as the front stalls over
our area. The setup looks favorable for decent instability, so
this will be the time period to watch for severe storm potential.

The front should sag south on Friday, although the 12z ECMWF keeps
it stalled over southern WI. Lighter winds should allow for a
lake breeze. Then northeast winds are expected to rush down the
lake Friday night.

Saturday through Monday... Forecast confidence is low.

There are several different scenarios for how the weather will
play out this coming weekend. A chance of showers and maybe some
thunderstorms in the forecast seems reasonable.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Still expecting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to
move in this afternoon, lingering into early evening as a wave
moves through. Ceilings will remain VFR. Breezy winds will ease
late afternoon into the evening hours.

Clouds will decrease overnight, with a very similar setup expected
on Tuesday. Breezy winds, increasing VFR clouds, and an afternoon
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur once
again tomorrow.

MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect into early evening when
gusty west winds will settle down. Could see gusts to near 25
knots on Tuesday again and may need another advisory. Gusts to
around 20 knots are likely Wednesday, staying just under advisory
levels.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Hentz
Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Tuesday Night through Monday...Cronce



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