Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 021505 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1005 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...

STILL A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OUT THERE THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MOST PLACES INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS AS IS FOR NOW...WITH FAIRLY MILD TEMPS ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY. SEEING A FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUD
COVER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE FILTERED SUN TO WARM
THINGS UP.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

STILL A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OUT THERE THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MOST PLACES INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WILL PROBABLY SEE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT STRATUS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
EXITING THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH FIRST SHORT WAVE...AND FORCING
AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING 500 MB
TROUGH WHICH MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE PUSHES WEAK 850 MB CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z...BUT THE MAX PASSES BY JUST TO THE SE ACROSS NRN IL INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN ON NOSE OF STRONGER 850 MB WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM NEAR DBQ TO NRN LK MI TONIGHT TO
WARRANT KEEPING HIGHER POPS. CAPE INCREASES TO 400-900 J/KG FOR A
TIME AS FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH 0-6 BULK SHEAR
STILL BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. SO A FEW STRONG STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA WHERE SPC HAS A 5
PERCENT PROBABILITY THOUGH DAY 1 SLIGHT REMAINS SOUTH OF WI.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.5 INCH SO DECENT RAINS
EXPECTED...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE SE. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 70S TODAY...WITH 50S FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS LEADING
EDGE OF COOLER AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD IN BEHIND LOW.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE EAST INTO ONTARIO
AND MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY DAY WITH BLUSTERY WEST
WINDS IN SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST A LULL IN THE SHOWERS
MIDDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT
OVER WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ONE COULD LEAD TO SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
DURING THIS TIME IS UNCERTAIN.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN WI
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CORE OF COLD AIR AND DEFORMATION
ZONE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN WI. THIS FEATURE IS DELAYED COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS. SHOWERS SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON. THE BRISK WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS SHOWING A COLD NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
SATURDAY NIGHT... WITH LOWS AROUND 33 INLAND. THERE SHOULD STILL BE
SOME CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT NOT CALM.
925MB TEMPS WILL BE RISING SLIGHTLY. THEREFORE... I LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS OF 34 TO 37 DEGREES. IT
WILL BE TOO BREEZY FOR FROST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESUME OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN WI FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN WI AT TIMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TIMING AND EXTENT OF THEM ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE
MOISTURE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW AND WE WOULD JUST SEE CLOUDS INSTEAD OF
RAIN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST WILL END
EARLY THIS-MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE STREAMING IN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE HAS MVFR CIGS
AND FOG MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH THESE LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE THIS MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AS THE LOW
CROSSES THE STATE. LOOKING FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z WITH THE WEAK WINDS AND MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

MARINE...

MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CRANK UP
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WEST WINDS GUST TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC



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