Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 302023
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
323 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST INTO WI. SURFACE HIGH
STILL DOMINATING WITH ONLY A SUBTLE SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. STRATUS FIELD HAS FINALLY MIXED OUT SO TEMPS WERE SLOW TO
WARM AND THIS LED SOME CONCERN THAT DENSE FOG MIGHT MORE EASILY
REFORM THIS EVENING. NEVERTHELESS THE AIRMASS REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY
MOIST WITH LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE. HOWEVER BUFKIT DOES SHOW A
BIT MORE WIND OFF THE DECK SO WOULD EXPECT FOG POTENTIAL TO BE LESS
OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT. SREF VSBY PROBS...WHICH DID PRETTY
GOOD ON LAST NIGHT/S FOG HAS MUCH LOWER PROBS FOR TONIGHT. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG BUT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR ANY MORE COVERAGE OF
DENSE THAN LAST NIGHT LOOKS QUITE LOW.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
588DM 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE WILL DOMINATE. SURFACE HIGH RETREATS FURTHER
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SO LLVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SRLY LEADING TO WARMER
REGIME. EXPECTING ANY MORNING STRATUS/FOG TO GIVE WAY TO A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE. WITH 925 TEMPS RISING TO 23-24C EXPECTING TO SEE HIGHS
REACH THE MID 80S. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL ON THE WEAKER SIDE
WINDS SHOULD BEND SE NEAR THE LAKE ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO COOL THERE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ROLL OVER TO THE ERN AND CENTRAL USA THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER WRN CANADA AND THE
PACIFIC NW. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING
WITHIN AND ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
STAY TO THE SOUTH AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM
MON NT-TUE NT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY FOR WED AND WED NT. THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PVA WILL
LIKELY STAY ACROSS CENTRAL OR NRN WI BUT DID GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF TSTORMS OVER THE FAR NW CWA ON WED AND OVER ALL OF THE
NRN CWA WED NT. 925 MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO APPROXIMATELY 25C EACH
AFTERNOON YIELDING HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH COOLING NEAR
LAKE MI IN THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL BE ABLE TO RIDE ALONG THE TOP AT TIMES WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF
TSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VSBL SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS GRADUAL EROSION
OF THE PERSISTENT MVFR STRATUS DECK. FOG POTENTIAL CONTINUES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LIGHT WIND REGIME AND MOIST REGIME. HOWEVER
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OFF THE DECK SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF DENSE
FOG. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE OH VLY ON MONDAY STARTING A RETURN
FLOW. ANY STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BURN OFF MORE QUICKLY THAN TODAY AND
RESULT IN SCT CU.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
WEBCAMS HAVE SHOWN SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAKE TO ALLOW ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED REPORT FROM OFF OF SHEBOYGAN STILL
SUPPORT HANGING ONTO SOME PATCHY DENSE MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. MAY NEED ANOTHER ONE LATER AS AIRMASS ACROSS THE
LAKE COOLS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL REMAIN FOR THE WEEK AS A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GEHRING


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