Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 251200 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
700 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12Z issuance...VFR conditions will persist along the north central
gulf coast with scattered to broken low clouds above 3000 feet
and broken mid level clouds prevailing. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop this afternoon along the coast, so added a
vicinity thunderstorms for all TAF sites starting at 18z followed
by a TEMPO thunderstorm group. Light north winds will persist
through the forecast. /22


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...Area radars detecting a
broken line of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Gulf of
Mexico just south of the coast along a quasi-stationary surface
boundary. Meanwhile, upper level disturbances will continue to move
from west to east over the forecast area in the base of a large
upper trough over the the central and eastern conus. Patchy morning
fog along the coastal sections will dissipate by mid morning, but
the low to mid levels clouds will persist today and tonight.

The offshore precipitation will expand northward in coverage after
mid morning through the afternoon hours as daytime surface heating
ensues. This precipitation will mainly be confined to areas south
of a Wiggins, MS to Greenville, AL line for today. Isolated showers
may persist along the immediate coast through overnight hours.

The best chance of heavy rain will occur along the I-10 corridor
this afternoon, and some locations could pick up a quick inch of
rain from the stronger thunderstorms. Gusty thunderstorm winds up to
30 mph will also be possible with the stronger thunderstorms as
MLCapes are projected to reach between 1000-2000 J/KG right along
the coast.

High temperatures today will range from 84 to 89 degrees. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 60s inland areas,
with upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast. /22

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...The frontal boundary
stalled along the coast is progged to push offshore by Monday,
with surface high pressure building into the Tennessee River
Valley and Mid-South in its wake. Aside from a slight chance for
showers and storms along the coast and offshore, much of the area
remains rain free through the short term. Afternoon highs Monday
and Tuesday reach the upper 80`s to around 90 across the area,
with slightly cooler mid 80`s along the immediate coast. Overnight
lows range from mid to upper 60`s inland to low 70`s along the
immediate coast each night. /49

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...Onshore flow and deep
layer moisture return to the area heading into the long term
period as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic and
eastern Gulf both at the surface and aloft. With precipitable
water rebounding back into the 1.75 to 2.0 inch range,
thunderstorm activity increases into the latter half of the week
as a more typical summertime diurnal pattern sets up and storms
form offshore each night/morning and propagate inland each
afternoon/evening. Some storms could produce brief, heavy
downpours and frequent lightning. Afternoon highs continue to
reach the upper 80`s to around 90 each day, and overnight lows dip
into the low to mid 70`s each night. /49

MARINE...A weak frontal boundary stalled over the adjacent coastal
waters today will move south toward the central Gulf tonight. A
light to moderate offshore flow is expected each night through early
Tuesday as a broad surface ridge of high pressure builds southeast
over the mid Mississippi River Valley through early next week. A
better onshore flow is expected late Tuesday into Wednesday as the
ridge of high pressure shifts east to the Atlantic seaboard and
western Atlantic through midweek. /22




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