Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMOB 050953
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
453 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER COASTAL AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI
STRETCHING WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AFFECTING
MOST COASTAL AREAS OF AL AND NWFL THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS
AREA OF PRECIP IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TO H8 LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE LOWER PART OF LOUISIANA THIS MORNING
PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF MS EARLY TODAY
THEN CENTRAL AND COASTAL AREAS OF AL LATER IN THE DAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PERSISTENT RIDGE CENTERED MOSTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STRETCHING EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND
RETROGRADE WEST IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS DIGGING SOUTH AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF VIGOROUS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER AL
EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER IMPULSE TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF REGION LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO BETTER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE CWFA TODAY CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT LESS
CAPPING IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH TONIGHT. PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO
ABOVE 2.0 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA TODAY ALONG WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY OR CAPE COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WHAT THIS
MEANS IS THAT WE WILL LIKELY SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING
MORE INLAND BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF
MOSTLY THUNDERSTORMS FORMING NEAR THE MS/AL AND NWFL COAST OVERNIGHT
SHIFTING INLAND ACROSS THE MOST PARTS OF THE CWFA EARLY THU MORNING.
AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH BETTER WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN.
WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY DURING MAX HEATING OR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. SOME MINOR FLOODING MAINLY IN
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO SOME TRAINING OF CELLS.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV MOS FOR
TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY FOR
CONSISTENCY. WITH BETTER HUMIDITY LEVELS SHIFTING WELL INLAND TODAY
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY OVER MOST
INLAND AREAS OF THE CWFA THIS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 102 TO 105 FOR
MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND 98 TO 101
DEGREES FOR ALL OTHER AREAS TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO
THE MIDDLES 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
CLOSE TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND ACROSS MUCH
OF MS/AL/GA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES ORIENTED FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
THURSDAY WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ALONG THIS FEATURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.2 INCHES. ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH BETTER COVERAGE SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL FOLLOW THIS
SCENARIO AND CONTINUE TO TREND A LITTLE WETTER WITH THE FORECAST
THURSDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS ORIENTED NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
MORNING WITH LIKELY CHANCES SHIFTING NORTHWARD AFTER 18Z. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP
THURSDAY GIVEN THE DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW LOCALLY STRONGER CELLS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN REGIONS OF HIGHER MLCAPE
BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. THE EXPECTED GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPORT TRENDING A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ON MAX TEMPERATURES OVER MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S WILL STILL ALLOW FOR MAX HEAT INDICES AROUND 100.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT
OVER OUR AREA BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL START BUILDING EASTWARD FROM TX TOWARD
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. STILL PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN
PLACE WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LOOK TO RANGE IN
THE TYPICAL MID TO UPPER 70S OVER MOST AREAS UNDERNEATH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. /21

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY BEHIND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM TX TOWARD THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.8 TO 2.1 INCHES. EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH THE ADVANCING INLAND SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH
INDICATIONS THAT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA ALONG THE LEAD IMPULSE AXIS.

THE MAIN STORY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WILL BECOME ENHANCED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS
INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO HEAT
INDICES WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW MAX HEAT INDICES
REACHING 105-110 EACH AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT HEAT CONCERNS IN THE HWO. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED EACH AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY EACH
AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
05.12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWER
CIGS WILL BE MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL
BE EARLY TODAY SHIFTING INLAND BY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 8 TO
12 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 8 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGHER
WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SEAS POSSIBLY UP TO 3 OR 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
SURFACE CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF MID TO UPPER DISTURBANCES TRACKING
SOUTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. WINDS UP TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO A BETTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE GULF AND INLAND AREAS COMPARED TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THIS PATTERN BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND OVER THE OPEN GULF
WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  75  90  75  93 /  60  40  60  30  30
PENSACOLA   90  77  89  77  92 /  60  40  60  30  40
DESTIN      89  79  89  79  91 /  60  40  60  30  40
EVERGREEN   94  74  91  74  94 /  40  30  60  40  40
WAYNESBORO  95  74  92  74  95 /  30  30  60  30  30
CAMDEN      96  75  92  74  94 /  30  20  60  30  40
CRESTVIEW   91  74  90  74  94 /  60  30  60  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21



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