Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 281026
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
526 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL FUEL MLCAPES OF 2000-3000
J/KG. THE STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SOME INCREASED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LEAD TO BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 12KFT WILL ALSO FAVOR HAIL
POTENTIALLY UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND WITH LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST. 13/JC

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: HIGH

(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO
RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGHS EACH DAY GENERALLY AT OR JUST BELOW THE
NORMAL OF AROUND 90 TO LOWER 90S...BUT MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL
DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR (MID 50S TO MID 60S) WILL KEEP
THINGS FEELING MORE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES. THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESULT IN TUESDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS REACHING 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IN SOME AREAS. LOWS
OVER INTERIOR AROUND 60S DEGREES AND LOW TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (SOME LOCATIONS AROUND 70 AT
THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT). 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS A LITTLE FASTER THIS
MORNING WITH THE RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PCPN DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY. MID/UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF OVER OUR AREA...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHTLY
MORE UNSETTLED AIRMASS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. LOLVL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION AND A ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM...WITH A DIURNAL
PATTERN OF THE BETTER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN IN
THE LOWER 90S OVER THE WEEKEND. LOWS EACH NIGHT RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 AND LOWER 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (28.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 13/JC

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT..BUT
REMAINING JUST SHY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL HEADLINE
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  70  90  64  92 /  50  40  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  69  92 /  50  40  10  05  05
DESTIN      89  75  91  72  92 /  50  40  10  05  05
EVERGREEN   94  65  89  60  90 /  50  20  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  94  64  89  60  90 /  50  10  05  05  10
CAMDEN      94  64  89  60  90 /  50  10  05  10  05
CRESTVIEW   95  68  92  66  92 /  50  40  10  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




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