Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMOB 012056
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
356 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY
STABLE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW EVENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WE ARE JUST
NOW GETTING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA...IN A
REGION THAT DIDN`T GET AS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY (AND ALSO INFLUENCED
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. OUTFLOW
FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW STORMS UP THAT WAY...BUT NOT AT
THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAYS EVENT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST WILL
PROBABLY MOVE/BUILD A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES ON EAST ACROSS AND PAST THE FCST AREA. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF OF SOLAR HEATING WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. TAIL END OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST NEARER THE UPPER
SUPPORT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH SOME UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US. AT
THE BASE OF THE TROF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER
LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF...BEST CORRIDOR FOR THE PASSAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS => ISOLATED COVERAGES. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NOSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN US POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...TO BE CARRIED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT CHANCES OF
DAYTIME STORMS WHILE BRINGING A BIT MORE HEAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL (87 TO 91) OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
01/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOT RANGES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS).
12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION. THE
LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION OVER THE
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  74  92  74 /  20  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   76  88  77  93  76 /  20  20  05  10  10
DESTIN      78  87  79  91  79 /  20  30  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   72  90  72  92  71 /  30  30  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  72  91  71  92  70 /  30  30  10  20  30
CAMDEN      72  90  71  92  71 /  40  30  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  94  71 /  20  30  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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