Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 312104
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
404 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...Scattered thunderstorms
continue to develop over inland areas of northwest Florida and
southwest Alabama drifting mostly eastward at 5 mph or less. Most of
the storms have remained below severe limits this afternoon with only
a few isolated cases in Okaloosa County where cores well exceeded
the -20c isotherm for 2 or 3 volume scans. Today`s convection is
enhanced by some better mid level forcing or lift in the mid levels
in response to a mid level impulse tracking eastward across the
central parts of MS and AL this afternoon. Latest meso analysis from
SPC also shows sfc based capes between 3000 and 4000 J/Kg over most
of the Florida Panhandle stretching west and northwest over lower
parts of inland southwest AL and inland southeast MS which has also
helped for the stronger convection this afternoon. For later this
afternoon and early this evening...thunderstorms will continue to
form near and along a weak seabreeze boundary moving northward and
along developing outflow boundaries from existing thunderstorms.
Gusty winds between 30 and 45 mph...small to medium size hail and
frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes will likely accompany most
of the stronger thunderstorms for the rest of today...with maybe a
few isolated cases of damaging winds and large hail. By mid to late
evening...thunderstorms will diminish quickly as daytime heating
diminishes followed by clearing skies along with some patchy fog near
sunrise mainly well inland from the coast.

For Wed with deepening upper low over the lower plains pushing
slowly east...believe conditions will remain favorable for better
forcing in the mid levels across the central gulf coast region...
enhancing the threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms during
the afternoon and early evening hours. Most of the model guidance
also depicts surface based capes above 2000 j/kg during the late
morning and afternoon hours. Damaging straight line winds and medium
to large hail along with frequent cloud to ground lightning will be
the main threats with the stronger storms.

As for temps will continue to lean towards the warmer mos numbers
through Wed resulting in lows in the middle to upper 60s for most
inland areas and the lower 70s along the immediate coast. Highs for
Wed will be similar to today...climbing to the lower to middle 90s
for most inland areas and the mid to upper 80s along the immediate
coast. 32/ee


.SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...Short wave mid-
level ridge axis migrates eastward into the southeast to close out the
week as an amplified southern stream trof axis pivots eastward over
the Rio Grande Valley. Deep layer moisture looks to range from 120 to
140% of normal (1.3 to 1.5 inches) over the local area in the short
term. Despite amount of moisture present...the amplified nature of
the southeast US ridge axis near-by and its larger scale compressional
sinking brings a challenging forecast with respect to storm coverage.
For now...storms look to be generally isolated in coverage along and
north of US highway 84 Thursday afternoon. By Friday as the flow
aloft becomes more southwesterly...isolated to scattered storms look
to be oriented in a northeast to southwest fashion over the interior
of southwest AL and southeast MS. Daytime storms will likely be
strong at times producing brief strong wind gusts in excess of 40
MPH...small hail...frequent lightning activity...and locally heavy
downpours. A few of the stronger daytime storms could intensify
briefly to severe levels with damaging downburst winds in excess of
60 mph being the main threat in any of these.

As for temperatures...very little change in daily highs and lows. 88
to 93 interior with 82 to 86 along the beaches. Nights warm and muggy
with upper 60s interior to lower to mid 70s beaches. /10

.LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Much needed changes look to
be on the horizon as the weather pattern is supportive of a more wet
and unsettled weather pattern going into the weekend. Southern stream
upper-level trof axis over Texas attempts to phase with a system moving
eastward over the northern tier of states Saturday and Sunday.
As this occurs...a weak frontal boundary slips into the forecast area
from the west and becomes quasi-stationary. Layer moisture is
expected to continue to deepen (pwats 1.8 to 2 inches) across the
northern Gulf Coast due to a south to southwesterly flow at low to
mid-levels in response.

The increased synoptic scale forcing in this moist airmass brings the
probabilities up for showers and thunderstorms this upcoming
weekend. As upper level trof axis pivots eastward across the Lower
Mississippi River Valley on Monday...will trend pops downward to
slight chance over the interior with chance pops in place for the
southern zones. As mentioned on the previous shift...it looks like
drier air should start to work its way into the forecast area from
the northwest by Monday night.

Daytime highs more tempered by clouds and highest pops/storm coverage
Sunday in the mid 80s. Little change in overnight lows through the
outlook. /10

&&

.MARINE...A broad surface ridge of high pressure stretching
eastward across the eastern and north central Gulf will continue
through Thu afternoon then weaken slowly from west to east over the
weekend in response to an upper trof moving eastward from the lower
plains states to the western Gulf. The upper trof moves to the
eastern seaboard by early next week followed by reinforcing high
pressure building in from the west and north. With conditions
becoming more favorable for showers and thunderstorms over the marine
area beginning late Fri continuing through early next week...the
best coverage of thunderstorms will be over the near shore Gulf
waters during the early morning hours...forming over the inland bays
and sounds and along the immediate coast during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Winds will continue from the southwest during
the afternoon hours through Wed evening then shifting more to the
southeast and south late Thu through the weekend as the upper system
tracks across the northern Gulf states. Little change in seas is
expected through early next week. 32/ee

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  89  69  89 /  20  20  10  10
Pensacola   71  88  72  88 /  10  10  10  10
Destin      74  86  74  86 /  10  10  10  10
Evergreen   67  93  68  93 /  20  20  20  10
Waynesboro  67  92  69  91 /  20  20  20  20
Camden      68  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20
Crestview   68  92  68  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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