Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 011355
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
855 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED RIP CURRENT RISK TO HIGH TODAY GIVEN LATEST SWELL
OBSERVATIONS. LOOKS LIKE PRIMARY WAVE ENERGY PACKET AFFECTING OUR
AREA NOW IS NEAR 8 SEC AND 3.5 FT AT 42012. THE SOURCE OF THE LONG
PERIOD SWELL IS THE NEAR CONSTANT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE (CURRENTLY ~1020 HPA) TO OUR NORTHEAST AND THE WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER
THE SW GULFMEX (CURRENTLY ~1009 HPA) THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
ALONG WITH INCREASING TIDAL RANGE...AMONG OTHER CONTRIBUTORS...THIS
WARRANTS AN INCREASE IN THE RISK. LOOKS LIKE THIS ELEVATED RISK WILL
BE WITH US FOR THE NEXT 24-48 H. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH EAST OF TX INCLUDING THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A VERY MOIST/DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MOVING OVER LOWER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL HELPS INITIATE ISOLATE/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING
OVER INLAND PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING WEST
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS INCLUDING INTERIOR PARTS OF
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN AL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND NEAR 2.0 IN
TO THE WEST WITH PLENTY OF DRYER AIR ALOFT WITH GENERALLY A WEAK
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ALSO NOTED. WITH THIS THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLOW GROWTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW. AS FOR TEMPS WITH LESS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET/MAV/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...CONTINUING WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MOSTLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT MOISTURE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE HIGH OVER INLAND PARTS
OF LOWER SOUTHEAST MS AND MODERATE FOR ALL OTHER AREAS TO THE EAST
AND NORTH.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP A TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE
RIDGING ALOFT...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
APPROACHING FRONT ALONG WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
SOME LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE BEACHES. /13

AVIATION [01.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE MOSTLY TO AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
GENERATED FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY
DUE TO A BETTER SWELL GENERATED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  74  93 /  30  20  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  77  92 /  20  10  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  79  91  79  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  95 /  20  10  30  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  94  73  94 /  10  10  30  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  96  71  95 /  10  10  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   95  71  95  72  95 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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