Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 230748
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
348 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary remains to our south today. Low then moves
along the front, tracking off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday.
High pressure builds over the northeast late Tuesday through
Wednesday, then drifts off the coast Wednesday night. Another
wave of low pressure follows for Wednesday night into Friday,
with a cold front moving through Friday. High pressure returns
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Initial shortwave passes to the east early this morning, with a
wave of low pressure doing the same. High pressure, with weak
ridging aloft, builds across New England.

Subsidence will likely keep the area dry today. Some sunshine
will appear, particularly in southern CT.

Temperatures today will be cooler, closer to seasonal norms of
the lower to mid 80s.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
ocean beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Weak ridge yields to approaching trough through this time
frame.

At the sfc, two areas of low pressure approach and pass. the
area looks to remain on the north side of the frontal boundary
as the coastal low passes juts south Monday.

Ample forcing ahead of this system will result in increasing
coverage for showers and possible thunderstorms tonight, from
west to east. Best chance occurs from late evening and through
the overnight hours. At this time, instability appears to be
weak, so widespread thunder is not anticipated.

On Monday, showers are possible, but the main area in the
morning departs in the afternoon.

For tonight, the rain and clouds will result in normal overnight
low temps. However, cool temperatures are anticipated during the
day Monday. With easterly flow, and plenty of clouds, leaned
toward the lower end of the guidance, with a 2/3 and 1/2 blend
followed.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper level shortwave and accompanying wave of surface low
pressure will be exiting to the east Monday night into early
Tuesday. A few showers will be on-going at the beginning of the
extended forecast period. CAPE values look meager.

A weak ridge builds Tuesday and Wednesday. Then another
shortwave amplifies into a significant trough into the eastern
states Wednesday night into Thursday with a high amplitude
trough, of 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal, digging all
the way to northern Florida by Friday. The flow looked to be
still progressive with a surface low moving through Thursday and
Friday. However, there are hints that the upper low will close
off again Friday into Saturday and remain along the northern
coast into next weekend. At this time will keep with persistence
and the more progressive flow and keep Friday night into
Saturday dry as upper ridging builds to the north.

Temperatures through the extended period will be near to slightly
below seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A frontal boundary will remain just south overnight as a wave
of low pressure tracks along it, then sag farther south today
after the low passes. Another low will then moves along the
front tonight.

Brief IFR vsby in heavier rain at KJFK has tapered off, leaving
MVFR conditions in rain at KISP. Lingering MVFR conditions at
KEWR/KTEB should improve overnight.

Expect BKN VFR cigs through the day on Sunday, with NE flow
turning SE in the afternoon. Played cigs more on the pessimistic
side, but they could be higher than forecast if drier air works
in from the NE, especially at the CT terminals. If the more
optimistic scenario plays out, winds at coastal terminals could
be more southerly then fcst as a sea breeze also develops.

As the next low approaches, showers with MVFR conditions should
make it to the NYC metro terminals after 02Z-03Z Mon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Late Sunday night-Monday night...Showers likely. MVFR conds
likely, IFR cigs possible. A rumble of thunder also possible
late Sunday night.
.Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
.Tuesday night-Wednesday night...VFR.
.Thursday...Chance of showers and possibly a tstm, with local
MVFR or lower conds.

&&

.MARINE...
Increasing E-SE flow tonight and then E-NE flow on Monday ahead of
an approaching low, with a warm front remaining to the south or only
briefly entering the ocean waters, should eventually build ocean
seas to minimal SCA criteria of 5 ft. This could happen in the NY
Bight area as early as late tonight, but certainty in this is higher
for daytime Monday. Wind gusts up to 25-30 kt are also possible on
the eastern ocean/sound/bay waters daytime Monday.

Ocean seas may also approach 5 ft Wed night-Thu as increasing S flow
develops ahead of a cold front. Waves of low pressure passing
through could also bring a chance of tstms on Thu.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
An additional 1/2 to 1 inch of rainfall is likely from late tonight
through Monday, with locally higher amounts possible. There is
a small chance for minor flooding or urban and poor drainage
areas, if any experience locally heavy rainfall.

More rain is possible Thursday through Friday. Significant
hydrologic impacts are not expected at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With the new moon phase today, tides are running high.
Positive tidal departures of 1/2 to 1 ft are needed for minor
flooding during the night time high tide. With east flow
expected, and looking at what occurred earlier tonight, will
issue a coastal flood advisory for western LI sound, the south
shore bays of LI, and lower NY Harbor for the evening and
night time high tides. A few locations could reach or slightly
exceed moderate benchmarks across the south shore bays of
Nassau and Queens.

The threat for minor flooding could continue into Monday, with
E/NE flow progged to continue.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Monday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Monday for NYZ071-073-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ074-075-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET/PW
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW



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