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000
FXUS61 KOKX 251817
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
217 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT THEN STALLS
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

CLOSED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NE TODAY...WITH POPS DECREASING
FROM CATEGORICAL FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY FOR OCCASIONAL TO
SCT -SHRA. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT TRANSITING THE AREA A LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING
SOME GRAUPEL. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND SFC-850
LOW TO OUR NE. LATEST OBS TO THE WEST SHOWING GUSTS 35 KTS OR
HIGHER IN SOME SPOTS ALREADY. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTS TO
40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN LOCATIONS. AS SUCH...WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FROM THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 ACROSS N
INTERIOR ZONES TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NYC METRO. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR STAYED IN
THE MID 40S. THESE HIGHS ARE SOME 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP OF CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NE WITH DECREASING POPS FROM
SW TO NE FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DID LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NE 1/3
OF THE CWA IN DEFERENCE TO SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...BUT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE CUTOFF PULLS AWAY - ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
SLOWLY RELAX OVER THE REGION.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS
SHOULD BE TOO STRONG FOR FROST FORMATION ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR
ZONES. ON SUNDAY...USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...MAV/MET GUIDANCE BLEND...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800
HPA...FOR HIGHS WITH READINGS FORECAST AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER...WITH DRY WEATHER.

FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES FORECAST 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN NYC. WINDS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN BE TOO STRONG FOR FROST FORMATION ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR NORMAL - WITH POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS MUCH AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECE/WPC GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...SO
FOLLOWED A BLEND.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
PASSING SHORTWAVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL ENABLE
A WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE FRONT STALLING
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR W ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN CHANCE POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
DO LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THERE
IS SOME QUESTION HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE N.

DEPENDING ON EXACT PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE
MEAN/ECE/ECE ENSEMBLE MEAN/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES START OUT
NEAR NORMAL...BUT RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT IN STRENGTH TONIGHT. IT MOVES
NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MVFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE IS STILL A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL
IN SHOWERS WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT
AND A MORE CONSISTENT WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED AT THAT POINT.

WINDS STAY PRIMARILY BETWEEN 300 AND 330 DEGREES DIRECTION TRUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN AROUND 35-40 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL OCCASIONALLY
PEAK OUT BETWEEN 40-45 KT AT TIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. AFTER 4-6Z...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS TO DROP TO AROUND
25 KT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KT. THIS MIGHT BE OFF BY A
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...BY SUN MORNING...WINDS COME UP AGAIN TO
AROUND 20 KT...GUSTING BETWEEN 30-35 KT BEFORE LOWERING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN AFTN...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20 KT...GUSTS 25-30 KT.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT
TUES NIGHT AND WED.
.THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
NW FLOW STRENGTHENS TODAY. MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL AROUND NOON BEFORE
SOME OF THE WATERS REACHES GALE FORCE GUSTS...AND GUSTS OVER THE NY
HARBOR AND LONG ISLAND BAYS COULD SUBSIDE UNDER 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...THE GALE WARNING MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO PART OF SUNDAY MORNING OVER SOME OF THE WATERS AS MIXING
DEEPENS AGAIN. WINDS THEN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE DAY.

ALL WATERS THEN FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UNDER 15
KT. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO A HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081-177-
     179.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-176-
     178.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
     350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JP
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT