Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 272341
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SW CT AS OF
23Z. RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE
FRONT AND UNDER A PASSING VORT MAX...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH INTO CT.
23Z LAPS STILL SHOWING SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE LOCAL OF THE
STORMS...BUT CIN OF BETWEEN 75-100 J/KG IS IN PLACE ALONG COASTAL
CT. AS SUCH...EXPECTING THE STORMS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY PROGRESS SOUTH. SVR THREAT LOOKS TO BE
OVER...AND EVEN THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH 00/01Z.
AS THE LINE PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CT...SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION MORE TO ISO-SCT SHOWERS WITH ISO TSTM. THE PCPN THREAT
SHOULD BE DONE BY 06Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH...AND THE NW FLOW IN THE WAKE BRINGS IN A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS. TEMPS AND DEW PTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TREND...THOUGH FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
STILL EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NW FLOW WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLR SKIES. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT CU
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY TO BE WARMEST
ALONG THE S COAST DUE TO THE DEEPER MIXING ON NW FLOW. THE MET
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSEST TO THIS SCENARIO. DIURNAL SPREAD OF CLOSE TO
30 DEGREES POSSIBLE THU NGT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS WHERE
DECOUPLING OCCURS.

THERE CONTINUES A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES
LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NYC
NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH...
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT NORTHWEST OF NEW YORK CITY WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THROUGH 08Z. MOST OF THE TERMINALS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
THE FRONT...HOWEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CT.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT AROUND 10 KT. GUSTS DEVELOP UP TO 20 KT DURING THURSDAY
MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THROUGH 02Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABV 5 FT THRU AT LEAST THU NGT. PEAK
SEAS OF AROUND 8 FT EXPECTED THU MRNG...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AROUND AREA INLETS. OTHERWISE...A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT LATE TNGT THRU THU BEHIND THE
CDFNT ON THE OCEAN. MAX WINDS TO 20 KT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ATTM.

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT CONVECTION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD 4 FT WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE THRU THU MRNG...BEFORE
THE SWELL RETREATS INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...A HIGH
SURF ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THU. ALTHOUGH WAVES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BLW THE 7 FT HIGH SURF CRITERIA INTO PERHAPS THE
EVE...DANGEROUS RIPS WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON THE OFFSHORE
SWELL...THE HIGHEST WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE THU MRNG. THE THU MRNG
HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO PRESENT THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND WASH-OVERS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








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