Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 132019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
319 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015

...A Warm Wednesday Expected...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night) Issued at
0256 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015

High pressure is controlling our weather. As a result, clear and
mild conditions have been observed today with temperatures warming
this afternoon well into the 70s. It is also noticeably drier
today with humidity values below 30% for much of the area.

Through the short term period, the high pressure should being to
move eastward with time allowing for a southerly return flow to
take shape. With warm and moist air advecting northward,
temperatures through midweek will be above average with highs
nearing the 80 degree mark both Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight
low temperatures will remain in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 0256 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015

After a warm midweek, a much more seasonal weekend is expected for
the region as a Canadian air mass moves south and eastward behind
a southward progressing cold front. Some guidances want to
develop an isolated shower or two Friday with the frontal
boundary, however, this activity will be light and sporadic at
best given the fairly dry column throughout.

It appears that the coolest temperatures with this "arctic
intrusion" of air will be east of our region. However, we`ll have
to watch for patchy frost over our eastern counties Saturday
Night/Sunday Morning. Radiational cooling will be maximized during
this time as the surface high settles into the Mid-
Mississippi/Ohio River Valleys.

Upper level pattern changes as we continue into early next week.
A northwest flow will transition to a more southwesterly flow
aloft. The globals are void of any meaningful rain until midweek
next week as a short wave ejects from the Desert Southwest into
the Southern/Central Plains States.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions will occur at
the TAF sites this afternoon through Wednesday morning. Winds will
be around 6 to 10kts this afternoon out of the northwest. Winds
will then become light and variable this evening and overnight as
highs pressure will be over the region.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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