Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 302333
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
633 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms moved across the
Ozarks Region today in advance of an approaching cold front. All
rainfall is expected to exit east this afternoon, setting up sunny
and dry weather the rest of the afternoon.

The approaching front will bring a cold Canadian airmass over much
of the nation`s mid section, causing temperatures to fall.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Despite sunshine on Friday, highs will struggle to warm out of the
40s due to strong cold air advection.

By Friday night into early Saturday morning, a hard freeze will
occur, ending the 2014 growing season for the entire area.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20s. Please note that a
Freeze Warning has been posted for the Friday night and Saturday
morning period.

Southerly breezes will quickly return by mid day Saturday setting
up our next warming trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Fair weather is expected on Sunday as southerly winds promote
warmer temperatures. This flow will also force Gulf moisture back
into the Ozarks, setting the stage for our next episode of showers
and thunderstorms.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have consistently suggested the gradual
approach of a storm system early in the week, that would provide
the region with widespread rainfall, particularly Monday into
Wednesday.

This storm system will be structured in a positively tilted fashion,
which is ideal for decent rainfall amounts, especially considering
it`s slow progression.

We think rain amounts Monday through Wednesday will range from one
to three inches. Again with the rain becoming very widespread, we
have decided to mention a limited risk for flooding in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions for much of tonight then lowering
ceilings toward morning.

Surface high pressure will build southward into the region tonight
and Friday. A secondary cold front will plunge through the area
early Friday bringing a period of MVFR to low VFR ceilings and
increasing northerly winds.

Surface winds will gusts over 20 kts at times Friday before
subsiding Friday evening. Low level wind shear will impact the
area tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Foster






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