Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 011135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
635 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Sfc low pressure over far se Neb extends east to a sfc wave near
KSTL and western IL while a trailing sfc cold front extends south
over our far eastern cwfa in south central MO. Drier sfc air has
moved into all but our far se counties. Earlier convection has
weakened while shifting south and east of the area. Where higher
dew points hang on, some fog will occur where the sky clears
(already seeing that at KUNO and on webcams over south central
MO). Fog is expected to become more common as the sky continues to
clear over south central MO over the next few hours. Some
fog may also occur near lakes.

An upper level shortwave along the eastern Neb/KS border will move
east helping to ease the sfc low and trailing front away from our
area. Warmer temperatures will hold on over our eastern counties
today before drier/cooler winds veer more to the nw-nnw tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

A blocking pattern will remain established with a high amplitude
ridge over western NOAM. We will be on the downstream side of the
ridge with nw flow shortwaves keeping us cool with some
clouds/sprinkles/very light trace amount rain at times Mon and
Tue. Will carry some low pops for measurable rain in the fcst for
this time period somewhat favoring the afternoon/early evening

We will see the tail end of one more shortwave moving southeast
through the Midwest Wed. Unseasonably cool temperatures early in
the week will moderate somewhat through Wed. Then after a brief
cool down again Thu, temperatures should warm nicely for the end
of the week as the western upper level ridge axis moves into the
Plains. Some areas could see or at least push 80 deg F over the
western cwfa Sat.

In terms of impactful weather this week, it looks quiet. Very good
agreement with operational global models (ECMWF and GFS) through
Saturday starts to break down a bit in terms of how quickly another
system will move into the Plains early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Areas of fog had formed across south
central Missouri early this morning, but have not affected any of
the TAF sites. Best potential for seeing some shallow fog next
few hours will be at KBBG. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions will
prevail through 06Z tonight. Between 06Z and 12Z a shortwave
trough will drop through southern Missouri which will switch winds
to a more northerly direction. Short term models are consistent
with bringing in a stratus deck behind the system. Expect ceilings
to drop overnight into the MVFR and then IFR category by 12Z


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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