Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 290436

1136 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Some clouds remain, but the snow/sleet/rain from a quick moving
upper level disturbance has passed south of the area. Clouds should
try to clear this afternoon and early evening. However warm air
advection and a ne advecting elevated mixed layer ahead of an
approaching sfc trough may trap some moisture in the low levels,
particularly over the western cwfa. With the exception of south
central MO (south of the higher terrain...Oregon County area)
winds should stay high enough to limit fog/stratus build down.

The approaching sfc trough/weak cold front supported by shortwave
moving from the Plains into the Midwest will pass through the
region in the afternoon/early evening. Much warmer temperatures
will occur ahead of the front. A few light showers/sprinkles will
be possible, but with a fairly dry atmosphere expected to be in
place, expect nothing significant.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

We will continue the transition to warmer weather early in the
week with dry conditions Monday and Tuesday as an upper level
ridge moves into the central CONUS. A couple of weak frontal
boundaries try to push into the area late Tuesday and again
Thursday, but wash out over area or stall near or over us. Rain
chances will increases Wednesday into Thursday.

There is fairly good model to model agreement on the timing of a
more substantial front passing through the area Friday/Day 6, as
the overall pattern starts to amplify again with a trough moving
into the western CONUS then moving into the Plains. Have increased
shower/tstm chances during this time with dry and cooler weather
for Saturday. Imagine we will see timing changes in the fcst
between now and then given the faster zonal pattern.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Next shortwave was over the northern Plains and we are starting to
get some steady southeast wind across the area this evening. This
is especially true at SGF where the favored wind direction for the
funnel effect is causing some gustiness at the SGF terminal location.

Clouds will not begin to increase until near daybreak with this
shortwave and still only expecting mid/high level clouds with this
wave. Wind will become northwest late in the day as the surface
front moves through.




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