Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 060742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
242 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

...Potential for Heavy Rain Increasing Heading into Tonight...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

Confidence is increasing that periods of heavy rain will occur
across portions of the forecast area from tonight through at least
Wednesday.  A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for much of the
region from this evening through Wednesday afternoon.

Starting out this morning, convection from yesterday evening has
dissipated, though a few additional showers/thunderstorms will be
possible early this morning, especially across the eastern Ozarks in
the vicinity of a low level baroclinic zone.  Some increase in
convective coverage is then expected later on today, especially
during the afternoon hours, as the combination of a warm and humid
low level airmass and numerous outflow boundaries combine to set off
at least scattered thunderstorms.  Many places will likely stay dry
through the afternoon hours, but much like yesterday, locally heavy
rain can be expected for those areas that DO see thunderstorms this
afternoon. Temperatures today will vary based on thunderstorm
coverage, but mid to upper 80s are expected for most.

Flooding concerns will then increase substantially starting later
this evening into the overnight hours.  A slow moving frontal
boundary, currently stretching from western Lake Superior into
eastern Colorado, will move into the forecast area from the
northwest tonight.  Widespread thunderstorms are expected to be
ongoing along the front as it moves into the region.  Much
of the severe weather threat should be confined to areas to our
northwest (closer to KC), but we`ll need to watch for a few
instances of gusty winds to 50 MPH with the stronger storms this
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

The front will move south to around I-44 or so by Tuesday morning,
and then make little movement Tuesday and Wednesday. This front
will be interacting with a very tropical airmass, with PWAT values
approaching 2 inches at times, which is well above normal even for
this time of year. Waves of thunderstorms, including torrential
rainfall, will move along the front through Wednesday night. Right
now, it appears that heavy rain will be most widespread tonight
and then again late Tuesday night, as a surface wave moves
northeast along the front.

Rainfall amounts are notoriously difficult to forecast, but right
now, best indications are for anywhere from 2 to perhaps as much as
5 inches of rain across the Flash Flood Watch area, with the
heaviest amounts over the far northwestern CWA. Locally higher
amounts will be possible depending on the exact track of
individual thunderstorms. Needless to say, this kind of QPF would
probably be a problem regardless of antecedent conditions, but
given already saturated soils and elevated stream levels, flooding
is appearing increasingly likely.

The front then looks to more or less wash out over the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, with scattered thunderstorms
continuing through the day Thursday.

Upper ridging will then establish itself over the southern and
southeastern U.S. by Friday, and while this will spell an increase
in temperatures, it will at least mean a break from the rain for a
bit.  Temperatures by next weekend look to warm into at least the
low 90s, and with dewpoints remaining in the upper 60s and low 70s,
heat indices between 95 and 100 degrees will be likely over much of
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

Pilots can expect primarily VFR conditions at area terminals
tonight and Monday. Some patchy fog may develop overnight
especially at the Branson terminal. South to southwest winds will
increase Monday ahead of an approaching front. The chance of
thunderstorms will increase Monday night as this system moves into
the area.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 242 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

Heavy rainfall is looking increasingly likely across the region
from this evening through Wednesday afternoon and evening. Current
forecasts suggest anywhere from 2 to 5 inches (locally higher) of
rain across much of the region, with the heaviest amounts falling
north of the Ozark Plateau, including the Sac, Osage, Pomme de
Terre and Marmaton basins. Somewhat lower, though still
significant rainfall amounts are currently expected across the
Niangua, Gasconade, and James River basins.

In addition to significant rises on main stem rivers and area
reservoirs, numerous low water crossings will likely flood as
creeks and streams rise over the next few days. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued for much of the area from early this evening
through Wednesday afternoon.

Rainfall amounts and locations will be fine tuned over the next
day or so, and at least slight changes are likely. Please remain
alert for forecast updates.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster
HYDROLOGY...Boxell





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