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000
FXUS64 KSJT 101739
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1126 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24
hours. Light and variable winds today and tonight will shift
to light northerly behind a weak cold front Wednesday morning.
Frontal passage can be expected across the northern terminals
13Z to 15Z and across the southern terminals 16Z to 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR ceilings are quickly eroding over the area with KSJT and KSOA
becoming VFR by 13Z. For the next 24 hours all terminals will be VFR
with light and variable winds.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013/

SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight

An upper shortwave trough will continue to move east of the area
today as a closed upper low continues to spin over the Pacific
just west of the Baja. Between these two features, a zonal flow
aloft will continue over the forecast area. Surface high pressure
over West Central Texas today will result in mostly sunny skies
and light and variable winds. Afternoon highs will warm mostly
into the 40s south of Interstate 20, and will remain a little
cooler north of Interstate 20 with afternoon highs generally in
the upper 30s. As the surface high pressure centered over our area
slides to our east later today, surface winds will shift to the
south. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the upper 20s to the lower
30s under mostly clear skies.

LONG TERM...
Wednesday through Monday

A series of cold fronts will move through west central Texas over
the next several days with a chance for showers Thursday afternoon
into Friday morning.

A dry cold front will roll through the area Wednesday keeping
temperatures cool through Thursday. Precipitation is not expected
with the front however. There continues to be a chance for showers
Thursday afternoon into Friday morning for parts of the area.
This, as an upper level trough moves east/northeast across Arizona
and New Mexico. Models have slowed down how soon rain chances
enter our area, however the general timing for any possible
precipitation remains to be mainly Thursday night. So, we have
made some minor adjustments to the timing of precipitation for the
area. While lows Thursday night will fall to near freezing, have
kept the precipitation as all liquid as model soundings show
southwest flow and warm air advection above the surface driving
temperatures to around 10C at 850mb. In addition, cloud cover
along with southerly flow at the surface will aid in preventing
temperatures from falling to less than freezing.

Temperatures will warm nicely into the upper 50s and lower 60s
Friday as skies clear, and west to southwest downsloping winds
develop at the surface. Another dry cold front will move through
Saturday, dropping highs into the upper 40s to mid 50s Saturday.
Northwest flow will develop Sunday into Monday resulting in slowly
warming temperatures and dry weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  41  31  40  21  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  47  29  47  23  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
Junction  47  25  53  27  49 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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