Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 062330
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
630 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions to continue across West Central Texas through
Saturday. Showers and storms across Far West Texas may produce a
little mid and high level cloudiness late tonight across the area,
but should be relatively short lived. There may be a few isolated
storms Saturday afternoon near the San Angelo (KSJT) and Sonora
(KSOA) terminals, but given the uncertainty in timing and
coverage, will not mention at this point.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

SHORT-TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

The mid-level ridge remains in place over the Southern Plains this
afternoon, but this feature will begin to translate to the east over
the next 12-24 hours as the deep cyclone over the east coast is
kicked out by the shortwave trough moving east across south-central
Canada. To our west, a deep cyclone continues to spin over the
southwest CONUS. Southwest flow aloft will continue through
Saturday, which will result in scattered high clouds across the
region. There doesn`t appear to be a substantial approaching
disturbance embedded in the flow aloft this afternoon, but we are
seeing a diurnal field developing over the Trans Pecos region this
afternoon. High based showers and thunderstorms will be possible to
our west late today. The remnants of this convection may move into
the southwest portion of the CWA overnight, generally remaining
south and west of San Angelo. Any precipitation that affects the
area tonight will be relatively light.

We do anticipate increasing high clouds from this convection and it
will assist south winds of 8-14 mph in keeping overnight lows in the
upper 50s and lower 60s. A few showers will be possible across the
CWA early in the day tomorrow. Strong 850 mb winds of 25-30 mph will
aid in warm advection/isentropic ascent, enhanced by increasing
synoptic scale forcing for ascent. However, most of this activity
should end by midday, with the focus shifting to the west along the
dryline. The dryline is expected to remain over the Permian Basin
Saturday afternoon, with isolated showers and thunderstorms
developing anywhere from the south Plains into the Trans Pecos. Most
of this convection will remain to our west, but slight chance pops
were included over the western half of the CWA to account for the
northeasterly storm motions. Afternoon temperatures are forecast to
be slightly cooler than today, with highs generally in the mid 80s.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)

The upper low will move northeast across Colorado on Sunday, and
the system will eventually open into a trough across the Central and
Southern Plains on Monday. Continuing with low PoPs Saturday
night for roughly the western half of our area, for the
possibility of a few showers and thunderstorms moving northeast
into that area. The best opportunity for more organized convection
will be Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. The dryline should set
up across our northwestern counties Sunday afternoon, extending
southwest into the Permian Basin. With upper support, stronger
instability and increased vertical shear, strong to severe storms
will be possible.

Carrying low PoPs for roughly the eastern third of our area on
Monday, for the possibility of lingering convection and some
redevelopment. The upper trough axis will swing east across our area
Monday evening. The dryline may retreat somewhat early Sunday
night, before being overtaken by a Pacific front and then advancing
east across our area on Monday.

An upper trough is progged to move east across the Northern and
Central Plains on Wednesday, with trailing portion of associated
cold front moving south into our northern counties Wednesday
afternoon or evening. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF continue to differ on
the timing and southward progress with this front. Collaborative
approach brings the front slowly south into the Big Country
Wednesday afternoon and evening, and then stalling somewhere over
the central or south-central part of our area on Thursday. Dryline
may also set up just west of the Concho Valley on Wednesday
afternoon. Will have instability and enough moisture to support low
PoPs across much of our area Wednesday through Thursday.

Slight chance PoPs continue Thursday night through Friday night,
mainly across the northern third of our area. Models show quasi-
zonal flow aloft with weak, embedded disturbances moving across
Texas during that time.

High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s Sunday and Monday,
climbing into the upper 80s and lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
With the exception of cooler temperatures Monday night, lows next
week are expected to be mostly in the 60-65 degree range.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  84  65  86 /   0  10  10  30
San Angelo  61  86  65  87 /  10  20  20  30
Junction  57  85  64  85 /   5  10  20  30

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

07



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