Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 210417
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1115 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Have not included mention of showers and thunderstorms with this TAF
issuance based on latest model discussion showing the western
terminals located on the extreme eastern edge of forecasted
precipitation shield. Expect VFR ceilings to lower to MVFR at all
terminals, except KABI, shortly after midnight. Ceilings will lift
back to VFR around noon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

.UPDATE...
Adjusted POPs for the overnight period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Convection has diminished across much of the area this evening
with the loss of heating. The best chance for additional rainfall
for the rest of this evening and overnight will be across western
portions of the Concho Valley and North Edwards Plateau, generally
west of a Sterling City to Ozona line where the axis of a 20 to 25
kt low level jet develops. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
across this area, due to high PWATS and the expected slow storm
motion. Kept likely POPs going across this area overnight and
tapered POPs to slight chance over eastern sections. Also made
slight adjustments to temperatures to account for trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR ceilings will continue at all terminals through the remainder of
the evening. MVFR ceilings will return to KABI around daybreak
tomorrow and just after midnight tonight at the remaining terminals.
VCSH was maintained at the northern terminals and KSOA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Rain chances will continue across West Central Texas for the next
24 hours. Models continue to indicate the best chances for rain
and greatest rainfall will be mainly across the western half of
our area. A loop of water vapor imagery indicates the center of
the upper high is located near El Paso. This location continues to
place West Central Texas on the eastern side of the upper
circulation center. Model forecast soundings show good
precipitable water values for the next 24 hours across much of
West Central Texas, with numbers mainly in the 1.5 to 2.0 inches
range. Thus, the potential for flash flooding from locally heavy
rainfall will continue through tomorrow afternoon. However,
widespread flash flooding does not look likely, given the
scattered nature of showers and thunderstorms. Models still
indicate West central Texas is on the fence between very good rain
chances to our west and southwest and much lower rain chances to
our east. Given model indications, continuing the best rain
chances for our western counties looks reasonable.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)

Rain chances, although diminishing, will continue into Monday
night. Models this cycle are again indicating a weak front will
push into West Central Texas Sunday night. This boundary will
enhance rain chances for all of west central Texas on Monday, some
low-level forcing along and near the front.

(Tuesday through Saturday)

for the remainder of the long term, expect dry conditions with
unremarkable afternoon highs very close to seasonal normals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  86  67  85  66 /  20  30  10  20  10
San Angelo  70  86  66  86  67 /  40  40  20  20  10
Junction  70  86  67  86  67 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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