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000
FXUS64 KSJT 230441
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1141 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Look for VFr conditions to continue for the next 24 hours. A few
thunderstorms may move into the Abilene area tomorrow afternoon;
however, confidence is too low to include any thunder in the
Abilene terminal this forecast cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 614 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions have persisted across all five terminals this
afternoon and evening. VFR conditions are expected to continue
through tonight and tomorrow across all of the terminals. Otherwise,
a cold front affecting KABI at around 23z tomorrow will cause a
wind shift and brief gusty conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

For tonight, look for very warm conditions with light southeast
winds. Lows will be in the mid 70s.

For Friday, look for very hot temperatures across much of West
Central Texas. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Concho Valley
and Northern Edwards Plateau from Noon to 8 PM. Highs will be from
100 to 106 degrees. Also, isolated thunderstorms will be possible
during the afternoon mainly west of a Throckmorton to Abilene to
Sterling City line. A few storms may be severe due to mainly strong
instability, and a cold front entering areas north of the I-20
corridor. The main hazards will be damaging winds, large hail and
dangerous lightning.

21

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)

West Central Texas will have increased rain chances Friday
night through the weekend, along with cooler temperatures.

An upper level high will be centered over the Desert Southwest and
adjacent parts of northern Mexico this weekend, with a ridge
extending northwest into Oregon. Our area will be on the eastern
periphery of this high, with north-northwest flow aloft. Some of the
models show an embedded disturbance entering our northern counties
early Friday evening, then progressing south-southeast across much
of our area Friday night. The models have also trended faster with
the effective cold front, which is progged to push south across our
northern counties Friday evening, and then across the rest of our
area during the night.

The combination of enhanced lift and available moisture is expected
to bring increased chances for showers and thunderstorms by Friday
evening across our northern counties, and across the rest of our
area Friday night. With precipitable water values progged to be in
the range of 1.5 to 2.25 inches, locally heavy rainfall will be
possible. A few storms Friday evening may also have strong, gusty
winds and hail.

The chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
weekend, with a moist airmass remaining in place and the possibility
of additional disturbances entering our area in north-northwest flow
aloft. With increased cloud cover, daily high temperatures will
be cooler this weekend. The GFS has shown some consistency in
bringing in another disturbance into our area Monday afternoon and
evening. Carrying a continued chance for showers and
thunderstorms Monday, with a lingering slight chance into Tuesday.

Drier conditions with a warming trend in temperatures is indicated
for our area Wednesday and Thursday, with flat ridging aloft over
Texas.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74 101  70  83 /   0  10  50  40
San Angelo  76 106  72  87 /   5  10  40  30
Junction  74 103  73  89 /   0   5  30  30
Brownwood  72 100  72  83 /   0   5  40  50
Sweetwater  75 100  67  81 /  10  20  50  30
Ozona       74 104  74  90 /   5  10  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for Coke-Concho-
Crockett-Irion-Runnels-Schleicher-Sterling-Sutton-Tom Green.

&&

$$