Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 041117

617 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

/12Z TAFS/

Light winds will prevail at all terminals through the next
24 hours. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may approach the
KSOA terminal this afternoon/tonight. However, confidence in this
wasn`t high enough to include in the TAFs at this time.



(Today and Tonight)

Will some folks receive any rainfall is the question. Early this
morning, regional radars show an area of showers and thunderstorms
extending from the Panhandle to the Big Bend area. This area of
precipitation is in a zone of increased moisture at 850 and 700mb.
Additionally, lift is being supplied by an approaching vorticity
maximum, which is currently positioned just south of the Texas
Big Bend. This disturbance is forecast to lift northeast through
the Texas South Plains this afternoon/evening. The numerical
guidance latched onto to all of these features to some extent,
with the TTU WRF doing the best job. It shows the showers/storms
to our west making a run at our western counties, roughly west of
a Sweetwater to Sonora line this afternoon and tonight, where
isolated POPs were added to the forecast.

As for temperatures, 850 mb temps cool about 2 to 3 degrees Celsius
today. With this in mind and increased cloud cover from the
approaching system, afternoon high temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler, generally in the 80 to 85 degree range. Lows tonight
will bottom out in the upper 50s.


(Monday through Saturday)
Will still see a chance of thunderstorms across far western
counties of the forecast area on Monday as southwesterly flow
aloft continues to bring a series of shortwave troughs over west
Texas. Increasing moisture aloft will be supplied by the remnants
of Marty moving onshore over western Mexico. Expect most of the
precipitation for the early part of the week to remain to the
west, but that will change starting Wednesday as an upper low
currently over California moves eastward to southern Arizona/New
Mexico and eventually into southwest Texas near Big Bend.
Expecting rain chances to increase on Thursday and Friday with
some locally heavy rainfall possible due to abundant moisture over
the area from the Pacific. GFS coming more in line with the ECMWF
for most of the week, but still differing on the strength and
speed of the low by Friday into the weekend. GFS weakens the
system and moves it out a little faster than the European
model, so uncertainty remains for the weekend forecast. For
now, leaning a little closer to the European with a chance of
rain continuing into Saturday, then tapering off by the end of the
weekend. Temperatures for much of the week expected to be below
normal with increased cloud cover and rain over the area.



Abilene  81  57  76  57 /   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  85  58  77  57 /   5   5   5   5
Junction  86  59  80  58 /   0   5   0   0




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