Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 051122
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
522 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016
IFR/MVFR stratus will affect southern terminals including KSOA and
KJCT this morning as light showers associated with an upper low
over the Big Bend move northeast. KSJT was holding just above VFR
but expect it to fall to MVFR this morning as the light rain moves
and and begins to saturate the lower atmosphere. Keeping VFR at
KABI, as the showers should be more isolated. Ceiling should rise
to MVFR by early afternoon over all sites as more subsident
conditions expected with passage of the upper trough to the east.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/
(Today and tonight)
An upper level low in Mexico, south of the Big Bend, will move
northeast across West Central Texas today, with the center moving
through Junction and San Saba in the afternoon. The best rain
chances/amounts will be along and east of an Ozona...San
Angelo...Cross Plains line where the best mid/upper level ascent and
moisture will be present. Local rainfall amounts of 1/4 inch to 1/2
half inch are possible east of the line. Most rainfall, however,
will be light, particularly in the Big Country, where amounts will
range from a trace to a few hundredths of an inch. Rain should end
by mid afternoon...along and west of a Sonora...San Angelo...
Abilene...Haskell line as the upper low passes east and brings
subsidence. Eastern sections will see rain ending before 6 PM.
Clouds will clear from west to east, mid afternoon through early
evening, as the upper low moves east. This will lead to good
radiational cooling tonight, particularly along and south of an
Ozona...San Angelo...Brownwood line, where winds will be light and
not be influenced by mixing from a cold front late tonight. Lows
will range from the lower 40s north to mid and upper 30s south.
(Tuesday through Sunday)
..Cool to Cold and Dry...
Temperatures will take a plunge into cold territory mid to late
week, as a strong Polar front moves south across Texas. Meanwhile,
temperatures will try to rebound somewhat, as low-level flow from
the south continues Tuesday into Wednesday. Timing of the front
currently bring winds from the north to our Interstate 20 corridor
by early afternoon Wednesday. By sunset Wednesday, winds from the
north should dominate all of West Central Texas. Overnight lows
Wednesday night will be in the 20s; however, the coldest night
will be overnight Thursday night, when lows in the upper teens are
likely for most areas. Highs on Thursday won`t be anywhere near
seasonal normals, with numbers mainly in the mid to upper 30s
common. A warming trend doesn`t really begin until Saturday, when
low-level flow from the south becomes well established again, and
warm air advection helps push afternoon highs back into the 50s.
Another 24 hours of sustained low-level flow from the south will
then help create afternoon highs on Sunday mainly in the mid 60s.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 53 41 49 39 / 30 5 5 5
San Angelo 55 40 53 41 / 50 0 0 0
Junction 54 37 58 41 / 80 0 0 0
Brownwood 51 41 49 40 / 80 5 5 5
Sweetwater 54 40 48 39 / 20 0 5 0
Ozona 56 38 58 41 / 60 0 0 0