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000
FXUS64 KSJT 010430
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1130 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Ceilings around 4000ft are lingering from KABI to KBWD with
scattered high clouds elsewhere across West Central TX. High
clouds will increase overnight as convective debris from NM
convection moves southeast, however, no precipitation is expected
at the forecast terminals through the TAF period. Any storms that
develop are expected to be south and west of KSOA and KSJT. Expect
light northeast winds, generally remaining 10 kts or less,
through Friday evening.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
Removed chance of precipitation from southern counties through the
remainder of the night.

DISCUSSION...
The cold front has moved well south of the I10 corridor into south
Texas. Shower activity associated with the front is now well south
of the CWA, have removed chance of precipitation through the
remainder of the night. Have updated temperatures, dew points, winds
and associated parameters for the rest of the night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The low ceilings from earlier today have improved to 3500 ft or
greater. This cloud deck will continue to thin and shift east
overnight, with VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period.
Convection along the cold front should remain south of I-10, posing
minimal threat to the KSOA and KJCT terminals. Winds will be from a
general north to northeast direction at 10 kts or less once the sun
sets, remaining light through Friday afternoon.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

The surface front will remain well south of the forecast area
tonight, however the 850mb front will be situated along our
southern border. Models showing precip over our southern
counties tonight and this seems reasonable given the position of
the front and overrunning just north of it. Maintained a slight
chance of precipitation across the Interstate 10 corridor and
south tonight and Friday.

Light northerly winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies will
prevail tonight. Overnight lows tonight will be slightly below
normal with temperatures mainly in the 60s. On Friday, below
normal temperatures will continue. Expect partly cloudy skies to
persist with upper 80s to near 90.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

A slow warm up will ensue this weekend into early next week. Below
normal temperatures are forecast to continue this weekend, with
highs on Saturday in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and in lower 90s
for most locations on Sunday. Overnight lows will be slightly
below seasonal normals, in the mid to upper 60s. The remnant cold
front will be located from south Texas, into the mountains of West
Texas late Friday into Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop along and behind this boundary, mainly to our
south and west. I went ahead and continued the slight chance PoPs
for mainly the northern Edwards Plateau, Friday night and
Saturday.

A steady warm up is forecast next week, although temperatures will
remain near seasonal normals. High temperatures by mid week will
be in the mid 90s across much of the area, with lows generally in
the lower 70s. High pressure will dominate, with rain chances
remaining minimal through at least the middle of next week. Models
continue to indicate an upper level trough moving from the
Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region late next week. This
results in a cold front moving south through the Plains Thursday
into Friday. The ECMWF continues to be most aggressive, bringing
the front into West Central Texas on Friday. This would result in
slightly cooler temperatures and the possibility of precipitation.
For now, I have added in slight chance PoPs across the northern
Big Country on day 7, and these may need to be expanded if models
come into better agreement on a wetter solution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  87  66  89  67 /  10   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  66  90  67  91  68 /  10  10  10  10   5
Junction  70  91  68  91  67 /  10  10  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/99/99