Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 010003 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
703 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.UPDATE...

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along and south of Interstate 20 through the evening
hours. Low POPs were added for the rest of the evening. No other
changes needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF BRADY TO
JUNCTION TO SONORA AND OZONA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30KTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND WIND GUSTS EVEN STRONGER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER STORMS WILL ALSO FORM NEAR KABI THRU THIS
EVENING. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LIGHTNING. EXPECT VFR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. FOR THIS REASON...INSERTED
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
will be unfavorable for any convective development. Going with a dry
forecast tonight and Wednesday across the area. Lows tonight will be
upper 60s to mid 70s with highs Wednesday mainly in the 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue for several days.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the Inter-mountain West,
with a trough developing across the eastern CONUS. In this type of
upper-level pattern, a northwest flow will develop across the
region. Closer to the surface, southeast to south surface will allow
dewpoints in the 60s or better to persist through the period. Thus,
expect the muggy conditions to continue.

Heading into the holiday weekend, a vorticity maximum diving into
the eastern trough is forecast to send a weak cold front southward
towards West Central Texas. This front may approach the Red River
Valley on Friday as it stalls/washes out. Although the front isn`t
expected to progress into our forecast area, it may be close enough
to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to locations north of
a Sterling City to Baird line during the day Friday. The previous
forecast package had slight chance POPs in that area and this looks
good, so no changes were made. Otherwise, expect dry conditions
through the remainder of the weekend.

Early next week, the western ridge will build east with the ridge
axis stretching from the West Coast, through Oklahoma, to the
southeastern states. Rising upper-level heights will lead to
increasing temperatures, and this was reflected in the forecast
with a slight uptick in afternoon highs. However, given the moist
soil conditions from rainfall over the last several days/weeks,
temperatures are not expected to reach the century mark, as the
soil moisture helps negate that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  94  72  93  75 /  10   0  10   5  10
San Angelo  70  92  70  92  72 /  20   5   5   5   5
Junction  70  91  69  90  71 /  30   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





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