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000
FXUS64 KSJT 100420 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1120 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus located south of the Interstate 10 corridor will slowly move
north and affect the southern 3 terminals initially, then KSJT
around 13z. Ceilings should generally remain VFR, although I do
expect MVFR ceilings around sunrise at KJCT. MVFR ceilings will be
possible at KSOA, but for now I have kept them VFR as confidence
remains low. Light and variable winds overnight will become south
southwest at 5 to 10 knots by late morning.

Daniels

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/

UPDATE...
As the upper-level cyclone meanders west of the Big Bend, abundant
mid/upper-level moisture will advect northward into central TX.  We
are currently seeing light rain showers streaming northeast across
the Rio Grande, from Del Rio to near Rock Springs (and to the east).
Some of this very light precipitation is expected to reach as far
north as Junction, and possibly Mason, this evening. Rainfall
amounts should remain near a trace, but some light rain or sprinkles
will be possible. Otherwise, minor tweaks were made to bring
temperatures and dewpoints in line with recent observations and
adjusted to account for increasing cloud cover and light winds
overnight.

Johnson

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is slowly moving toward the Interstate 10 corridor, but
ceilings are in the 4k to 5k foot range, so VFR conditions are
forecast to continue. Although an isolated shower is possible this
evening, I expect most of this activity to remain mostly south of
KJCT. Lower ceilings will be possible at KSOA and KJCT around
sunrise, but for now I have kept ceilings VFR and will continue to
monitor. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites,
with light and variable winds overnight becoming south southwest at
5 to 10 knots by late Monday morning.

Daniels

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Today light northeasterly winds mostly less than 10 knots will
slowly shift to an easterly direction tonight and become light and
variable over many locations through midday Monday as a weak surface
high pressure area moves east across the forecast area.

A layer of mid clouds is expected to form over the southern half of
the forecast area overnight Sunday into early Monday in association
with slight lifting of moist air by a vigorous upper level low
pressure circulation in northern Mexico well west of the forecast
area. There will be a chance for low clouds to reform overnight on
the southern fringes of the forecast area in the vicinity of and
south of Interstate 10. Some light drizzle is possible if these low
clouds form.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)

The upper low will move slowly east into South Texas Monday night,
and into the Gulf of Mexico just south of the Texas/Louisiana
border on Tuesday. Cloud cover should decrease in southern counties
by late Monday night as the associated trough axis shifts east of
our area. May have lingering low clouds into early Tuesday morning,
but these should quickly dissipate as boundary layer flow veers
to west-southwest.

An upper trough will drop south across the central Plains and central
Rockies on Tuesday, and a surface trough will enter from the west.
Warm and breezy conditions are expected with an intrusion of very
dry air, with an attendant fire weather threat (discussed in Fire
Weather section below). Afternoon highs will be in the lower to
mid 80s. The aforementioned upper trough will send a strong cold
front south across West Central Texas Tuesday night, with strong,
gusty north winds following its passage. Given the strong surface
pressure rise field indicated behind the front, along with strong
low-level winds, anticipate that a wind advisory may be needed for
much of West Central Texas Tuesday night.

Gusty north winds will continue into the day Wednesday. Temperatures
will be much cooler Wednesday despite considerable sunshine, with
highs expected to be in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. A light
freeze is likely late Wednesday night, with overnight lows forecast
to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. This to occur as surface high
pressure settles south into Texas with light winds, clear skies and
strong radiational cooling. Temperatures to rebound into the lower
to mid 60s for highs on Thursday, as surface high moves into the
lower Mississippi Valley and southeast winds develop across our area.

Friday into next weekend looks dry for our area, with a warming trend
in temperatures Friday and Saturday. Another cold frontal passage
will be possible on Sunday morning.

FIRE WEATHER...

Moderate southerly winds will return late Monday at 10 to 15
knots and shift from southerly to westerly into Tuesday as a
surface low pressure trough moves in from the west. Winds will be
dry and brisk at 15 knots with high gusts. Expect elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon and early
evening. This will be followed by a blast of 25 to 30 mph cold
north winds with higher gusts possible. These north winds will be
associated with a strong cold front that will move through the
forecast area overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Dangerous fire
weather should be anticipated from these strong north winds on
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  41  75  50  85  41 /   5   5   5   0   5
San Angelo  40  73  47  86  43 /   5  10  10   5   5
Junction  43  68  46  83  46 /  20  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels