Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 062314

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
514 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

/00Z TAFS/

Northwest winds of 5 to 10 knots will become light and variable
after 00z. Wind will become southwest late Sunday morning and
increase to 6 to 12 knots. A cold front will approach KABI and
KSJT between 20z and 22z, resulting in northwest winds of 6 to 12
knots. VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

(Tonight and Sunday)

Satellite loops show an upper level low dropping southeast across
East Texas this afternoon. Cloud shield on the west side almost made
it as far west as the Heartland, but stopped short and left sunny
skies across all of West Central Texas. Weak cold front has cleared
the area, with dry northwest and northerly flow prevailing. Surface
high will slide across the area tonight, and although winds will try
to return to the south late tonight, it will be a good radiational
cooling set up. With the dry air mass in place, went with the colder
guidance numbers for Sunday morning low temperatures, especially in
our normal cold air drainage locations. South winds return tomorrow
and will lead to slightly warmer temperatures. Again, given the very
dry air mass in place and the wide diurnal swings we have seen,
going with the warmer guidance numbers for highs on Sunday afternoon.

(Sunday Night through next Saturday)

Dry weather is expected to continue for our area next week, with
fairly large diurnal temperature ranges. The flow pattern aloft
will be amplified over the CONUS early in the week with a strong
upper ridge over the western states, and an upper low over
Michigan with a deep trough extending south to the eastern part of
the the Gulf Coast.

Surface cold front will push south of our area Sunday night.
Somewhat gusty north-northeast winds are expected to follow passage
of this cold front, given the surface pressure rise field behind it.
Temperatures on Monday will be cooler with highs in the mid to upper
50s. Clear and cold conditions will occur Monday night with strong
radiational cooling, as surface high pressure settles south across
our area with light winds and rather dry air. A warmup will ensue
Tuesday as light winds become southwest and the airmass quickly

The flow pattern aloft over the CONUS will be less amplified during
the latter half of next week. The western US ridge is progged to
weaken and shift east into Texas during the middle of the week.
High temperatures are expected to be well-above average Wednesday,
with increased south-southwest winds. A cold front is progged to
move south into our far northern counties on Thursday. With low-
level thermal ridging pattern indicated ahead of this front and full
sunshine anticipated, highs on Thursday are expected to be in the 75-
80 degree range. The cold front is progged to push south across the
rest of our area Thursday night and early Friday. Following the cold
frontal passage, have some uncertainty on how much cooler
temperatures will be Friday into Saturday.  Given the forecast
strength of the surface high over the Midwest with a ridge extension
southwest into Texas, temperatures may need to be adjusted down a
few degrees from what we currently have in the forecast.

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through much of
next week. With no rain in site and dry northwest flow...afternoon
humidity values will drop to near or below 20 percent for most
locations through Thursday. Wind speeds will not likely approach
critical values...but 20 foot winds in the 10 to 15 mph range will
be possible again on Sunday afternoon...and again on Monday and


Abilene  30  66  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  27  71  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  24  68  34  59 /   0   0   0   0


.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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