Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 290501 AAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1201 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are moving east across the
northern half of West Central Texas. Initially Carrying a TSRA
mention at KABI, with VCSH at KSJT. The showers and storms will
move east and gradually dissipate overnight, with considerable
high cloudiness remaining over the northern half of the area.
Patchy low cloud development is possible early Friday morning in
some of our southern/southeastern counties, and including a
scattered layer at our southern TAF sites. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms could develop by Friday afternoon, but with
uncertainty on coverage and placement, holding off with VCTS
groups at this time. Wind field has been disrupted by passage of
an outflow boundary at KABI and near TAF issuance time at KSJT.
Winds overnight will veer from southeast to south. On Friday,
south winds in the morning will back to the southeast during the
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms over west and northwest Texas
are slowly moving east this evening. A few of these may enter our
western and northwestern counties, through early tonight. Have
more uncertainty on whether any of our TAF sites will be
affected. KABI and KSJT may potentially be affected, and will
monitor radar trends for possible update and inclusion of TSRA.
Otherwise, high cloud cover from the aforementioned convection
will overspread West Central Texas this evening and early tonight.
On Friday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible,
mainly during the afternoon and across the Big Country area north
of Interstate 20. Patchy low cloud development is possible toward
morning across some of our southern counties, and have a scattered
layer included at KSOA and KJCT. Southeast winds will veer to the
south overnight and continue on Friday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/
(Tonight and Friday)
Rain chances for the next 24 hours continue to look more promising.
The latest WSR-88D data indicate showers and thunderstorms are
developing across the Big Country. The RUC indicates this activity
will continue to develop and spread into mainly our northwestern
counties during the next 6 hours. Overnight tonight, the NAM
fragments the QPF into small areas across mainly our northwestern
counties. Given the uncertainty across our southeastern counties,
slight chance PoPs still look good there. Elsewhere, and especially
north of our Interstate 20 corridor, chance PoPs look best. As the
upper trough axis pushes farther east tomorrow, the better rain
chances will expand south and include more of our southern counties.
The main thunderstorm threats for the next 24 hours are deadly
lightning and flash flooding from locally heavy rainfall.
(Friday night to Thursday)
While the upper trough will be east of the region Friday night and
Saturday, a weakly capped atmosphere will remain. Therefore,
isolated, mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
will continue to be possible. The upper ridge strengthens Sunday,
however, with hot and dry conditions expected through next week.
Highs are expected mainly in the mid 90s.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 93 72 96 73 / 50 30 20 20 10
San Angelo 73 94 72 96 74 / 30 30 20 20 10
Junction 73 93 73 95 74 / 20 20 20 20 10