082
FXUS64 KSJT 071045
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
545 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast across West Central
Texas today. Highs this afternoon will be in the mid to upper 80s
across our eastern counties and the Big Country, to the low to mid
90s elsewhere. Mainly dry conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours. The one caveat is that an isolated shower or
thunderstorm is possible late this afternoon and early this
evening across our southeast counties. The most likely scenario is
that the cap will suppress any convection this afternoon, but if
the cap is breached, any storms that do develop could become
strong to severe. Confidence remain low though, so have no
included any mentionable PoPs in the current forecast. Expect
overnight lows in the 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A cold front will move through on Thursday, with rain chances
returning to the area for the weekend.

Another unseasonably warm...actually hot...day is expected for
Wednesday as temperatures climb into the lower to mid 90s across
the area with sunny skies. A cold front will approach on Thursday
and head southeastward through the day. With dry air in place,
we are not expecting any precipitation for most of the area, but
a shower or two could possibly form across the far southeast on
Thursday afternoon. Have kept precip chances out of the forecast
for now, as confidence is quite low that we will see anything.

Expecting cooler temperatures Thursday into the weekend behind
the front, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s each day through
Saturday. With low level east to southeasterly flow late in the
week, moisture will start returning to the area. Will begin to see
a few storms in the higher elevation areas of southwest Texas
Friday as an upper level digs into the four corners area. This
upper low will linger over the southwest for a couple of days
before finally moving out across the central plains Sunday into
Monday. Rain chances will pick up over west central Texas
starting Saturday afternoon and continuing each afternoon/evening into
Monday. With increasing clouds and rain chances, expecting highs
only in the 80s into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Stratus is resulting in MVFR ceilings at the southern 3 sites.
Expect a return of VFR ceilings by mid morning. Stratus will once
again develop early Wednesday morning, resulting in MVFR
ceilings. Winds should generally remain below 12 knots through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     87  69  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  94  68  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    94  72  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   86  69  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  88  66  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       91  67  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       87  71  92  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...Daniels