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000
FXUS64 KSJT 171129
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
625 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

First of all, there may well be a few showers this afternoon or
evening across much of West Central Texas, but given that the
coverage is expected to be limited and given the uncertainty in
timing, will not mention at this time. Otherwise, satellite is
finally showing the low clouds spreading across the are, with models
suggesting quite a bit of MVFR and low end VFR ceilings today. As a
weak cold front moves into the area, winds will become more easterly
and with more low level moisture moving into the area, all terminals
are expected to see MVFR cigs through the overnight hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Cold front making progress into the Panhandle early this morning,
although temperatures are not really much colder behind it. This
front will sag into the Big Country near the Interstate 20 corridor
by sunset, and then sag farther south during the overnight hours.
Moisture will be abundant, so as the front moves into the area, a
few showers will be possible. Previous forecast was already carrying
slight chance of showers across the area north and east of Abilene
for this afternoon and over much of the area tonight. This looks
like a good forecast for now and will continue.

Lots of clouds in place, both high clouds and low clouds underneath.
Still, temperatures starting in the mid and upper 50s this morning,
so even a little sun will allow readings to reach into the 70s
today. Mild again tonight with lows only dropping into the 50s.

LONG TERM...
Upper trough will approach the region Saturday. GFS has slowed the
progression of the upper trough and is now similar to the EC model.
I lowered pops for Saturday daytime, but kept the previous rain
chances in for Saturday night. Rainfall amounts in the models have
unfortunately decreased, even for Saturday night.

On on the positive side for rain chances, both the GFS and EC are
indicating a better chance of rain for Sunday/Sunday night,
especially across the Big Country as a secondary upper trough moves
across. The farther north, the better the dynamics and thunderstorm
chances. Atmospheric instability is also greater across the region
Sunday with GFS SB CAPES increasing up to 1800 J/KG, which will
increase the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

Northwest flow will bring in drier air aloft next Monday. Left out
chances storms on Monday, although with northwest flow aloft, one
can not rule out an isolated thunderstorm. A CAP will be developing
Tuesday which will significantly limit thunderstorm chances through
the rest of the week.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  55  75  56  76 /  20  20  10  10  20
San Angelo  73  56  76  57  78 /  10  20  10  10  20
Junction  72  56  77  57  76 /  10  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07