Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 300937 CCA

437 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

/Today and Tonight/

A compact upper low embedded within a broader western CONUS
trough, will lift northeast across the Dakotas today. Westerly
flow aloft within the base of the upper trough will induce a
weak surface trough in the lee of the Rockies today, with the
trough axis extending south across West Texas. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected to develop along and east of
this feature late this afternoon and evening. Some of this activity
may reach far western sections by early evening, with the most
favored area across the western Big Country counties generally west
of a Throckmorton to Sweetwater line. Kept 20 POPs going across this
area this evening and overnight.

Convection should be more isolated farther south, but could move
into far western portions of the Concho Valley and Crockett county
by early evening. It is interesting to note that the RUC and some
of the high resolution models develop convection farther east across
the Big Country and Concho valley during peak heating. While this
can`t be ruled out entirely, due to minimal CAP and a convective
temperature around 90 degrees, the lack of any surface feature will
preclude mentioning POPs at this time. The thermal ridge will be a
bit stronger and farther east today, which will result in afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Lows tonight will be
mainly in the upper 60s.

/Wednesday through Monday/

The main concern in the extended forecast is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms in association with a cold front, followed
by cooler temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be above seasonal
normals, generally in the lower to mid 90s. The NAM is indicating
some convergence along a surface trough, mainly across the western
Big Country, during the late afternoon/evening hours Wednesday,
resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms. Slight chance PoPs
were included across the western Big Country for this time frame.

An upper level trough will move across The Rockies Wednesday, then
across the Plains Thursday. This will send a cold front through West
Central Texas during the day Thursday, clearing the area by early
evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along the front, mainly across the southern and eastern
half of the area, where better moisture will reside. Only minor
tweaks were made to the current PoPs, with the best chance across
the Northwest Hill Country. Cooler, near seasonal, temperatures are
forecast behind the front on Friday and Saturday, with highs in the
low to mid 80s, and overnight lows in the 50s to near 60. A slow
warm up will ensue Sunday through early next week.


Abilene  89  69  91  71  87 /  10  10  10  20  20
San Angelo  91  69  92  72  88 /   5  10   5  10  20
Junction  88  67  91  73  90 /   0   5   5  10  20




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